The four best teams in the NFL will face off in the Conference Championship Games on Sunday with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. It’s just the second time since 2005 that the top four seeds all made the NFL’s version of the final four.

Fans of low-scoring, defensive battles will likely be disappointed on Sunday. It’s the first time since the merger that the conference title games will feature the NFL’s top four scoring offenses: Chiefs (35.3 points), Rams (32.9), Saints (31.5) and Patriots (27.2).

The two home teams are laying roughly three points, depending on the sportsbook. At the South Point in Las Vegas, there’s been good two-way action on the games. The biggest concern for Sportsbook Director Chris Andrews is one, or both, games landing on three points.

“I’m rooting for no threes,” said Andrews. “No threes this weekend. Stay off three. That’s what I’m rooting for.”

Books will be rooting for the under

Both games feature rematches from the regular season. The Saints defeated the Rams at home 45-35 in Week 8 as 1.5-point underdogs. The Patriots defeated the Chiefs 43-40 in Foxboro as 3.5-point favorites. The two games combined to produce 163 points.

As you might expect, both totals are near 60. This weekend’s combined total of 113 marks the highest number for the two Conference Championship Games in NFL history. The second highest was in 2017 (109). Both games went over that year.

“The only thing I do know for sure is we’ll need both unders this weekend,” said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading at William Hill. “These are public games. The public will be very involved in these games and they tend to bet over. Most parlays will have overs. We’ll definitely be rooting for the under in both games.”

Competitive games generate two-way action

Home teams have won 10 straight Conference Championship Games. In those 10 games, favorites have gone 8-2 SU. Since the 2009 season, home teams are 14-4 SU during Conference Championship weekend but just 10-8 ATS. However, only one of those eight losses came when the home team was laying fewer than four points.

“I don’t think we’ll see any big trends on the side in these two games,” said Bogdanovich. “Both games are at -3, which means they’re ultra-competitive. It’s four public teams. I think we’ll see a monster handle on both games and a lot of two-way action from bettors.”

Bettors can also choose from a multitude of player props to wager on this weekend. Similar to the totals, books will be rooting for most of the player props to come in under their posted numbers.

“We’ll need under on the high-profile players,” said Bogdanovich. “Mahomes, we’ll need under touchdowns and likely passing yards. Under in Kelce receptions and under in Edelman receptions. Any prop with a marquee name the public tends to bet over.”

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints

Opening Line: Saints -3.5, 57
Current Line: Saints -3, 57

This is expected to be a high-scoring game and it could be good news for Los Angeles. The Rams were 13-1 SU this season when scoring 28 or more points, although the lone blemish came against the Saints in the 45-35 loss.

Getting revenge in the Superdome won’t be easy for the Rams. The Saints are 15-2 SU in their last 17 home games. During the regular season, New Orleans went 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS at home, while the Rams were 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road.

Getting revenge in the Superdome won’t be easy for the Rams. The Saints are 15-2 SU in their last 17 home games. During the regular season, New Orleans went 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS at home, while the Rams were 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road

The Rams enter Sunday having covered three straight games, while the Saints are on a 0-4 ATS run with three of those games coming at home. Both teams have winning records against opponents that made the playoffs. Including last week, the Rams went 5-3 SU but just 2-5-1 ATS versus playoff teams. New Orleans went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in that spot.

Sharps betting different numbers

The line opened Saints -3 at the Westgate LV SuperBook and went to -3.5 a few minutes after it was posted. The number hadn’t budged as of Friday afternoon. FanDuel Sportsbook was sitting at Saints -3.5 (-120), while William Hill, South Point, CG Technology and Golden Nugget were all offering the Saints at -3.

“We’ve got some sharp play on the Rams +3.5 -110,” said Jeff Sherman, Vice President of Risk Management at the SuperBook . “We opened the Saints -3 -120 and took some public play right away to get to 3.5. The Sharps have taken the Rams on that number. It’s been an accumulation of the public jumping on the Rams too.”

Andrews saw a similar scenario at the South Point with sharp bettors taking the Rams at +3.5.

“We opened at 3.5 and the first bet came in, a sharp guy bet the Rams,” said Andrews. “We went to -3 and had quite a bit on money on the Saints. Then we went back to 3.5 and a bunch of sharp bettors played the Rams at 3.5. The biggest bet I took is the Rams +3.5 for $30,000.

“We do have some sharp bettors on the Saints -3 and the Saints money line too. They’re kind of split depending on the number. I have a feeling we’ll get back to 3.5. It will be interesting to see if sharp bettors jump all over that number again. They might. People always ask, ‘who are the wiseguys on?’ It depends on the number and this game is a perfect example.”

The Saints have been playing lower-scoring games recently, going 6-2 to the under in their last eight. New Orleans has failed to reach 21 points four times during that stretch. The over is 3-1 in Los Angeles’ last four games with the Rams scoring at least 30 points in three straight.

Plenty of money on the over

The total opened 57 at the SuperBook, William Hill and Golden Nugget. It hadn’t moved off that number since the line was released. FanDuel, South Point and CG Technology dropped the total from 57 to 56.5.

“Early in the week we only take up to $5,000 on the totals and I got two bets on the under for that amount from sharps guys,” said Andrews. “But they’re starting to come back on the over. Most of the public likes to bet over. We’ll have plenty of over money before Sunday.”

While the total may seem high, it’s not the biggest number we’ve seen in the playoffs. In the 2016 NFC Championship Game between the Packers and Falcons, the total closed at 59.5. The game went OVER with the two teams combining to score 65 points. The Saints and Lions also closed at 59.5 in the 2011 playoffs and easily went OVER the total with 73 points.

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

Opening Line: Chiefs -3, 57.5
Current Line: Chiefs -3, 56

Stop the presses: The Patriots are finally underdogs. Tom Brady and the Pats had been favored in 69 straight games dating back to 2014 but find themselves catching a field goal in Kansas City Sunday.

The Patriots are making their 13th appearance in the AFC Championship game with Brady at quarterback. New England is 8-4 SU in the previous 12.

The road hasn’t been kind to New England this season. The Patriots are just 3-5 SU and ATS away from home with all five losses coming to teams that didn’t make the playoffs. It’s the first time since 2009 that New England lost five or more games on the road in the regular season.

Arctic-like temperatures were originally forecasted for Sunday’s game but recent reports have the high reaching 30 degrees. Brady is 30-6 SU as a starter in games at or below 30 degrees.

Public backing the Patriots as dogs

The line opened Chiefs -3 at every major sportsbook and had yet to move off that number as of Friday. FanDuel was offering Kansas City -3 (-105), while the Golden Nugget juiced the Chiefs -3 up to -125. The SuperBook, William Hill, CG Technology and South Point were all at Chiefs -3 (-110).

“The public is betting the Patriots on +3 but at the same time we’re seeing sharp play on the Chiefs ML any time we’re at -150 or less,” said Sherman. “We’re currently at -160 but we’re seeing a sharp/public contrast as far as this game goes.”

The Chiefs have a losing record against top competition this year. With a win over the Colts last week, Kansas City improved to 3-4 SU and 3-3-1 ATS versus playoff teams. The Patriots are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS against playoff teams after blowing out the Chargers in the Divisional Round.

The South Point has been locked in at -3 all week. However, the money line is a different story. The Patriots have gone from +130 to +140, while the Chiefs opened -150 and are up to -160.

“The money line play in this game has been really interesting,” said Andrews. “The first wave came in on the Patriots. The second wave came in on the Chiefs. The money line in this game is harder to predict but I think the line will stay right at -3.”

One interesting trend for this game is how New England’s offense has struggled away from home this season. The Patriots are averaging 12.2 fewer points per game on the road. That’s the second biggest gap in the NFL ranking ahead of only the lowly Raiders.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ defense is allowing just 17.4 points at home — tied for third-best in the NFL. Although, Kansas City didn’t play the toughest competition at home with games against the offensively challenged Bengals, Raiders, Jaguars and Broncos.

Weather impacting the total

The total in this game has seen the most movement throughout the week because of early weather reports suggesting temperatures could drop to below zero by kickoff. The SuperBook opened the total 59 but saw the number drop all the way down to 55 on Tuesday. As the weather reports improved, the line moved back up to 56.

FanDuel was also sitting at 56 on Friday. William Hill (57.5), South Point (58), CG Technology (57), Golden Nugget (58) were all down to 55.5 after releasing totals of 57 or higher. At the playMGM sportsbook, at least in New Jersey, the number was also 55.5 as of 3:00 pm ET.

“Obviously, the cold weather information on Kansas City where it looked it was going to be 100 below has subsided,” said Bogdanovich. “It looks like it’s going to be around 30, so the total is going back up again. The total was 57 and dropped as low as 54.5. It’s settling back in at 56 now that it looks like decent weather in Kansas City.”

While these are two of the NFL’s highest-scoring offenses, both teams have been trending to the under recently. The Chiefs have gone under in 11 of their last 14 home games, while the Patriots are 8-2 to the under in their last 10 games overall. Kansas City home games have seen an average combined score of 49.7. New England road games have averaged 45.6 points.

“We opened that at 59 and got as low as 55,” said Sherman. “We’ve come back up to 56. I think mostly sharps played the UNDER early because there was supposed to be a weather system headed to Kansas City. Now it’s headed back the other way.”