(USA TODAY Sports)`The first round of the NFL Draft kicks off Thursday night with Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray and Ohio State defensive lineman Nick Bosa expected to be the top two selections. PointsBet and other sportsbooks in New Jersey are offering prop bets for the NFL Draft. Bettors can wager on who will go No. 1 overall, which team will select Murray, and much more. Thomas Casale looks at some of the most popular NFL Draft bets at PointsBet and gives out his five top plays.
Kyler Murray to go No. 2?
Murray is the overwhelming favorite to go No. 1 in the draft with odds of -1000 at PointsBet. The Heisman Trophy winner is seeing a lot of bets come in on him but it’s not to be the top selection in the draft. Bettors are putting money on Murray to be the second pick at +1200 and taking two other players to go No. 1 overall.
“People are staying away from Kyler Murray as the No. 1 pick because the odds are too short,” said Ron Shell, PointsBet’s vice president of customer and insights. “The most popular bets are on Nick Bosa (+350) and Quinnen Williams (+1000) to go No. 1. And we actually took a lot of bets on Kyler Murray to go No. 2 where he’s +1200.”
In order to draw interest in Murray going first, PointsBet is offering an odds boost of +100 for him to be the top overall pick. The max bet is only $50 but Shell said it gives PointsBet customers a chance to double their money on a prop where bettors would normally have to lay $1000 to win $100.
“The comments that we’re getting is we’re giving away money,” said Shell. “It makes things interesting for bettors, that’s the thought behind it. If we didn’t make the max bet $50, we would never be able to speak again. There would be a huge liability, so we had to cap it, but it’s still very generous compared to our competitors.”
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Betting on the NFL Draft will continue to grow
This is the first year wagering on the NFL Draft is allowed outside of Nevada. Shell believes that it will only get bigger in the next few years because betting on the event appeals to casual fans who want to make a small wager on their favorite team.
“It allows people to put money behind their opinion,” said Shell. “Everyone has an opinion on the draft and what their team’s biggest needs are. I think it draws in the casual bettor and next year you may even see the odds integrated in the TV broadcast. It adds interest to people who have been looking forward to the draft for a long time.”
Here are my five favorite NFL Draft prop bets being offered at PointsBet:
Team to Draft Kyler Murray
Murray is -1000 to go No. 1 overall and -834 to be selected by the Cardinals, so oddsmakers are fairly confident the Heisman Trophy winner will end up in Arizona. The one other team worth a shot is the Raiders at +900. My thinking is either the Cardinals or Raiders select Murray and with Arizona being priced too high, I threw some money on Oakland at the much higher odds.
I do think the Raiders like Murray and are looking into putting a package to get him. Oakland is one of the few teams with enough draft capital to make Arizona an offer they may not be able to refuse with four selections in the top-35 picks. If you want to bet this prop, the Raiders +900 is the play.
Team to Draft Dwayne Haskins
With reports that the Giants may prefer Duke QB Daniel Jones to Haskins, there’s a belief that the former Ohio State quarterback is sliding. I don’t buy it. I’m not debating the Giants may go in a different direction but if that happens, there will be plenty of teams trying to trade into the top-10 to grab Haskins.
For me, the Dolphins make the most sense. Unlike Denver and Cincinnati, Miami is in complete rebuild mode. Haskins can sit for half the season until Ryan Fitzpatrick’s magic runs out again, then take over as the starter. It’s a good situation for both Haskins and the Dolphins. If the Giants pass on Haskins, I think it will come down to the Redskins or Dolphins. Give me Miami at +700.
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No. 3 Overall Draft Pick
I love Quinnen Williams +200 to go No. 3. Arguably the best overall player in the draft, he should be the pick here unless a team trades up to take a quarterback like Haskins. The Jets are sitting at three and reports are they want to trade down. That may be the case but they still need the right deal in order to make a trade happen.
A couple of years ago, similar reports suggested New York wanted to trade down in the draft. Instead, they stayed at six and selected LSU safety Jamal Adams, who many believed was the safest pick in the draft. Adams is now a Pro Bowler. Like Adams, many analysts think Williams is the safest pick in this year’s class. Don’t be surprised if the Jets stay at three and take the big nasty from Alabama. I like him at +200 over Josh Allen (+150) and Ed Oliver (+200).
Second QB Drafted
It’s hard to know if reports about the Giants being interested in Jones at six are legitimate or someone just blowing smoke. Jones’ connection to current Duke head coach David Cutcliffe makes me believe New York’s interest in him is real. Cutcliffe coached Eli Manning at Ole Miss and he’s well respected as a quarterback guru.
The other thing about this quarterback class is there is no clear-cut top guy after Murray. It will come down to which player teams like and think will fit their system. If the Giants believe that guy is Jones, it won’t surprise me at all if they select him at No. 6. I can see that scenario playing out on Thursday, making Jones +350 to be the second quarterback drafted a nice value play.
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Number of WRs Selected in Round 1
My favorite draft prop is OVER 2.5 receivers to be selected in the first round. I’m confident that both D.K. Metcalf and Marquise Brown will be taken in the top-25 picks. That means just one more receiver needs to be selected in Round 1 to cash the bet.
Looking at the teams picking at the bottom-half of the first round, many like the Colts, Packers, Chiefs and Patriots could select a receiver. I feel Hakeem Butler, A.J. Brown or N’Keal Harry will make into Round 1 and I won’t be shocked if four receivers come off the board in the first 32 picks. A.J. Brown is being undervalued by the mock draft community. I’m confident that he’ll be a first round pick and Brown is even worth a shot at +800 to be the first receiver drafted.
Over 2.5 receivers and over 3.5 quarterbacks selected in Round 1 are the two best bets on the board but you have to lay -251 on the QB prop. Over 2.5 receivers is -110 and I feel strongly it will cash, making it my best bet for the first round of the NFL Draft.