michigan football
(USA Today Sports Images)

Saturday is the best day of the year for college football fans and college football sports bettors, who may be one in the same. Not only does Saturday bring the semifinals of the College Football Playoffs but there are three other games on the schedule to whet your palette before the main course kicks off.

There will be a lot of money wagered on Saturday and a majority of sportsbooks don’t want to see an upset by Notre Dame or Oklahoma because of money line bets coming in on the underdogs. At the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, Notre Dame is +320 on the money line with Oklahoma +400.

“These two games are going to be bet very much like the Super Bowl,” said Jay Rood, Vice President of Race and Sports for MGM Resorts. ” If you like the favorite, you’re going to lay the points.”

“The best-case scenario for us in both of these games will likely be the favorite wins but doesn’t cover. A lot of people are going to be taking a shot on the money line. If an outright win by a dog occurs, it usually erodes our profitability.”

It’s a full slate of bowl games on Saturday and we break down the four big ones by telling you how the line is moving and where the money is going.

Peach Bowl: Florida vs. Michigan

Opening Line: Michigan -7, 50.5
Current Line: Michigan -6, 50.5

The public will be all over Michigan here but the Wolverines are playing this game without four key starters in LT Juwann Bushell-Beatty, RB Karan Higdon, LB Devin Bush and DL Rashan Gary. Those aren’t just good players, they’re all projected to be high NFL Draft picks.

Sharps like to take the points with SEC teams in bowl games and for good reason. In the last 20 bowl games which an SEC team has been at least a 6-point dog dating back to 1999, the SEC team is 16-4 ATS with 11 outright wins.

Florida hasn’t been profitable as an underdog though, going 3-8 ATS the last 11 games in that role. Still, it hasn’t stopped the sharps from coming in on the Gators.

“We opened Michigan -7. We were at 6.5 as of Dec. 18. We just went to -6 as of Thursday,” said Rood. “That’s been pretty steady since it got off of seven. That’s probably purely sharp money on Florida at this point. The ticket count is pretty even but I imagine it’s going to be skewed to Michigan. We just don’t want the game to fall on -7.”

Belk Bowl: Virginia vs. South Carolina

will muschamp

Opening Line: South Carolina -5, 53.5
Current Line: South Carolina -4, 53.5

Like Michigan, South Carolina enters its bowl game missing three key players. Game-breaking WR Deebo Samuel will skip the Belk Bowl and focus on preparing for the 2019 NFL Draft. He leads South Carolina with 62 catches for 882 yards and 11 touchdowns.

The Gamecocks also will be without two defensive starters: Junior DT Javon Kinlaw and senior CB Keisean Nixon.

Virginia enters the Belk Bowl off two straight overtime losses to close out the regular season. The Cavaliers ranked 14th against the pass this season, so the loss of an elite receiver like Samuel could play a key role.

Will Muschamp and the Gamecocks play better as underdogs than favorites. South Carolina is just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games when laying 3.5-10.0 points.

Early money came in on Virginia at MGM but the line has moved all over since on this game.

“The biggest move has been the Virginia game,” said Rood. “Bettors are taking the points with Virginia. That game has moved from -6 to -3 at some spots. We’re sitting at 4. We opened -5 then it went to 4. It went back up to 5.5 on Dec. 14 and now it’s back down to 4 on Friday.”

“The game has been all over the place. We just don’t want it to land on 4. Early money on Virginia looks like sharp action. This could be a divided game where different sharps are betting it two ways. That’s a lot of activity for that game. It’s not a very glamorous game.”

Cotton Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Clemson

Opening Line: Clemson -11, 55.5
Current Line: Clemson -12.5, 56

Sportsbooks all over are taking heavy action on Notre Dame, especially the Fighting Irish money line.

The bottom line is when public bettors see Notre Dame catching a lot of points, they’re going to pounce. It’s smart strategy. Notre Dame has been very profitable as a big underdog. Since the Irish got blown out by Alabama 42-14 as a 10-point underdog in the 2012 National Championship Game, Notre Dame has been dogs of 7 points or more just five times. Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in those games, winning two of them straight up.

Clemson has been at least 16-point favorites in every game this season, going 7-6 ATS. The Tigers closed the regular season strong, scoring 40+ points in six of their last eight games, while going 6-2 ATS over that span.

Clemson will be without stud defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence for Saturday’s game but that hasn’t impacted the spread at the MGM Mirage. However, they have seen some sharp money come in on Clemson.

“Clemson has more of the sharp community betting them,” said Rood. “We opened the game at 11 and now it’s 12.5. It could be a little bit of a stock market effect where if the public pushes the number to 13 Saturday, you may see the sharps come in and buy back on Notre Dame.

“We were up to 13 at one point and went down to 12.5, so they bought the 13 back. It looks like the sharps are divided here or it’s steady money coming in on Clemson then they’re going to get involved when it hits 13 again.”

Orange Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Alabama

Opening Line: Alabama -13.5, 79.5
Current Line: Alabama -14, 78

The Crimson Tide have been at least 21-point favorites in every game but two this season (Georgia -13, LSU -14). Despite laying double-digits in all 13 games, Alabama is 8-5 ATS. The line hasn’t moved much in this game. At the MGM Mirage, it opened -13.5 then settled on 14.

“We’re seeing quite a bit of Alabama money,” said Rood. “We won’t see the lion’s share of the money come in until the day of the game but the early action has been on the favorite. Nothing too heavy. Basically, anything being bet now is sharp money. I’d say some sharp money came in on Alabama -13.5 because we went to 14 then the line hasn’t done much of anything.”

While Alabama has been dominant all season, the Tide does come into this game with some question marks, most notably the health of starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa is coming off ankle surgery following the SEC Championship Game and isn’t expected to be 100 percent for Saturday’s game.

Alabama will also be without starting left guard Deonte Brown, who was suspended for committing NCAA violations, according to Nick Saban.
Oklahoma has its own injury issues. Quarterback Kyler Murray has been dealing with an illness this week and the Sooners’ leading receiver, Marquise Brown, is battling a foot injury. Both are expected to play but in Brown’s case, not at full health.

Oklahoma is the top scoring offense in the FBS at 49.5 points per game and Alabama is No. 2, averaging 47.9 points. The Sooners have scored over 40 points 10 times this year, helping Oklahoma go 11-2 to the OVER. Combined, the two teams are 19-6-1 to the OVER this season.

It’s no surprise that the total is the highest of any game this bowl season, even after it’s dropped two points since the opening number was released.

“We opened 79.5 on the total and went as low as 77.5,” said Rood. “We’re at 78 right now. Sharp money came in on the UNDER at the high number. I’d imagine Saturday we’ll see a little more OVER money as the public tends to bet OVER on these games.”

[Also See: College Football Playoffs Action Report: Sportsbooks Rooting Against Notre Dame]