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  • aramirez24

    Any regular guys out there that are thinking of giving this a shot? 1/2962 chance at 1 mil. I know it’s against the sharpest minds in dfs but with a field that small it won’t take a wild card to win like on a regular Sunday. Just curious what other people think.

  • Unico10

    • 681

      RG Overall Ranking

    Well. I am defeated.
    I am so emotionally defeated that I am typing this on Christmas morning.

    I think is time to take a long break.
    Even when I am lucky enough to win Qs and work my way in a bog tourney, things work in a cruel way against me and by “things” I also mean my tinkering.

    The 4th quarter in the SEA-ARI game made so that both my entries didn’t cash. Bonehead play calling by ARI…. smh

    One with Rodgers-Jordy finished 0.56 out of cash
    The other one 3 pts out of cash

    Only one player in common, TY Hilton, who I jammed in the Rodgers lineup and costed me big time as the original lineup would have scored 205 for $15k

    At least both entries cashed in all other tourneys.
    Regardless of the higher skill level, I think the % of max entries really worked against me as a hundred “pros” entries had Baldwin/DJ or one of them (went from 250th to 453rd) in the span of 5 minutes of SEA/ARI.
    What I mean is that the % of entries belonging to a few, outweighed the field that mostly had 1-5 entries in a much heavier way than in most tournaments.

    Merry Christmas to all.

  • jtwfantasy

    Didn’t get to enter this gpp before it filled, but I did notice it cashed out to roughly ~18% of players compared to the 20%-25% you see in other gpps.

  • rumsey182

    @KillaChap said...

    Not to a pro.

    And how many pros do you reckon are fine dusting off this much on one slate? Sure there are pros putting in a few hundred thousand every slate, but not that many of them. Not every pro is Condia or Saahil.

  • Unico10

    • 681

      RG Overall Ranking

    @jtwfantasy said...

    Didn’t get to enter this gpp before it filled, but I did notice it cashed out to roughly ~18% of players compared to the 20%-25% you see in other gpps.

    True.
    Doesn’t look like much, but entered with my two tix…. and also entered chop block, 3-max $27 and the $4 championships with same lineups.

    Cashed all except main event, had it been at 20% would have had $5k…. (had I not tinkered would have had a lot more, not looking to ignore my faults here…)

  • TwoSHAE

    @britdevine said...

    Also dont forget, if you are up a big amount this year, these entries come at a substantial discount since if you lose you are only paying about 60-70% of the entry fee due to taxes.

    Pretty sure the smart players understand this.

    If this was run at the start of 2017, the multi entry would be substantially less due to the start of a new tax year.

    The quoted post may be misunderstood by many.

    If you’re up enough that you are guaranteed to finish above the threshold for the top marginal tax rate for federal/state/local even the times you get completely wiped out, then you can make the decision to gamble big based on your own bankroll, edge, and risk tolerance.

    I believe for California, the top tax bracket for state taxes is $1m where you pay 13.3% state tax on every $ of income above $1m. Therefore if you were going to fire $300k on the last day of the year and were subject to CA tax, you’d need to be up at least $1.3m to have no chance of getting freerolled on taxes.

    Specifically saying 60-70% for any is not correct. The top marginal tax rate for US federal taxes is 39.6%. So if you are sufficiently above this threshold, and you live in a state without state income tax, you’d actually lose 60.4% of your losses. If you are also subject to state/local tax you’d be playing for even less (would be between mid-40s% and 60.4% of each $1500 bullet.

    It is important for each person to understand the taxes he/she is subject to before making these decisions, because if you’re max entering a top-heavy GPP like this where you can potentially lose $132,000 or win whatever the top 88 places combined pay (which I reckon is close to $2m), if you’re a California taxpayer and you’re up $500,000, it’s possible that you can be +EV in the tournament ignoring taxes but be -EV after the impact of taxes. This is because big wins vault you into the higher tax brackets so at the margin, each additional dollar won leads to you taking home a lower % of that dollar.

    It is easy to show this if you look at an example where you’re an American subject to NJ tax who is up $350,000 on the year and take a completely binary distribution of results… e.g. you lose $132k 90% of the time and win $1.32m 10% of the time, which, if my sleep-deprived mental math is correct would give you a 10% ROI but playing the tournament on Dec 31 would still be -EV because of the tax impact.

    Examples like this show why live finals are even worse than they appear on the surface (high rake, top-heavy, full of the most skilled players). Like if you’re going to make $1m+ even when you run poorly in qualifiers and the actual live finals then it doesn’t really matter but if doing well in Qs/live finals means you make $2m in the year but doing poorly means you make $200k, then you’re putting yourself in a terrible tax freeroll.

  • TwoSHAE

    @Unico10 said...

    True.
    Doesn’t look like much, but entered with my two tix…. and also entered chop block, 3-max $27 and the $4 championships with same lineups.

    Cashed all except main event, had it been at 20% would have had $5k…. (had I not tinkered would have had a lot more, not looking to ignore my faults here…)

    Your fault here isn’t that you tinkered off lineup(s) that would have cashed, it’s your mindset in general. This is going to happen and it’s best to not dwell on it when it does.

    You’re also going to bubble sometimes. If you are going to be emotionally crushed the times you tinker off of a good lineup or bubble a GPP due to a crazy 4th quarter in one of the late games, then you are probably not cut out for playing DFS (or should play lower stakes and not chase satellites to tournaments outside of your bankroll that are going to crush you when you don’t cash).

  • Colin408

    Who won this?

  • kingofqueens

    • x3

      2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    @Colin408 said...

    Who won this?

    underjones won

    Put in 30 entries ($45,000); won $1,070,000; profit of $1,025,000.

  • dakimbell

    @kingofqueens said...

    underjones won

    Put in 30 entries ($45,000); won $1,070,000; profit of $1,025,000.

    Not bad work, if you can get it!

  • Pitch120

    Funny the normal names dont finish high in single entry tourneys…

  • Rolled

    Is there a link to see the Results?

  • Woodlandtacotrucks

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/34439732?sf48218773=1

  • Unico10

    • 681

      RG Overall Ranking

    @TwoSHAE said...

    Your fault here isn’t that you tinkered off lineup(s) that would have cashed, it’s your mindset in general. This is going to happen and it’s best to not dwell on it when it does.

    I let a couple of days go by and I feel better and I probably need to explain a bit better my post.

    I was not crushed by the loss of the opportunity per se and not by the loss of money as I invested a few hundreds to win those two tix…. I am crushed by the chain of events, which I am going to recap for everyone enjoyment and maybe it can be a useful lesson for someone.
    No sour grapes, more like reverse engineering or self-therapy…

    First of all. My mindset going in was to play one lineup as my usual cash lineup, therefore very likely to cash and one a bit more risky to try to win it all.
    30 minutes before lock this was my “cash” lineup.
    Rodgers, Howard, Gurley, Jordy, Meredith, Garcon, Rudolph, Olsen, Pats.
    Lineup would have scored 199.18 and placed high enough to win $10k

    I then made a minor change, going from Gurley to Blount and from Olsen to Crabtree.
    This would have scored 202.58 to finish 33rd and win $12.5k

    I saved it and moved to the 2nd lineup, on which I had decided to go cheap at QB and get exposure to the OAK-IND and the TB-NO games.
    The lineup looked like this
    Savage-Gurley-DMM-TY Hilton-Thomas-Lockett-Brate-Nuk-SEA this would have crashed and burned.

    I decided to fade DMM and SEA dst w/Lockett as I was convinced DJ was going to get his and that he was the perfect GPP play as lower owned and possibly higher raw points RB.
    To fit DJ I had to go lower at WR and I was NOT going to drop TY as I was convinced he was in the perfect spot for a huge game… shortening up the story, that led me to drop the exposure to the NO-TB game to the TE spot and, due to pricing, I put Meredith and Garcon in there.
    The lineup became this:
    Savage-Gurley-DJ-TY-Garcon-Meredith-Fleener-Nuk-PAT – scored 154.14

    At this point is less than 5 minutes to lock and I should just leave everything alose, but I was uneasy having exposure in both lineups to Meredith and Garcon plus with the storms here in Cali having cleared up for the most part, my conviction on TY was even higher so….
    I went back to the main lineup (wish DK would have a “voluntarily lock and throw away the key function”….)

    That lineup locked like this…
    Rodgers-Howard-Hillman-Jordy-Thomas-Crabtree-V Davis-TY-SD scored 160.58

    Both cashed in Chop Block, 3 entry max and Front 4 Championships.

    Hindsight is easy to see where I went wrong. Jamming players at the last minute is never a good idea.
    Also not a good idea is to put a player without floor in a lineup with seconds to go. I did go back but didn’t have material time to revert to my previously saved lineup.

    However. I did get many things right and the games developed for the most part the way I envisioned.
    Faded Brady and NE passing game and Brady got benched with a big lead
    Faded Julio
    Faded DMM and Tennessee
    Was bothered by BUF scoring binge, but at the end of the early games my lineups were in good shape and didn’t see the need to make any changes.
    Hillman only got me 1.5 and Davis 2.30, but was still in good shape vs the field with Hilton, Crabtree and Thomas to go in one and the other lineup had 62 with 6 positions to go.
    My main mistake was to overlook Ingram at 4,400 for fear of Hightower and gameflow

    With 8 minutes to go in the SEA-ARI game I am hovering around 200 place with one and only needing about 15pts combined from Savage and Nuk to cash the other one….

    Near the end of that game I am above 400th place with one and 18pts out with the other…. than NFL revises a stat and Hillman loses a reception for -1yds that become a rush attempt. Lost 0.9pts on that revision.
    At the end of the game I am in 432nd place and need 20-22pts combined from Savage-Nuk to cash the other.
    Nuk is 31% owned and get nothing until late in the 4th when he get just enough to get me 0.56 off the cash line…. Savage and Nuk combine for just about 15pts

    When I look at all my past “bad beats” and look at what happened (or didn’t) during the day
    Hillman stat revision
    Hillman stuffed at the goal line
    Davis dropping a wide open TD (Cousins kind of missed him too)
    Luck underthrowing TY in the end zone for a long TD
    Meredith tackled at the 1 yd line and…
    Howard vultured by Langford at the 1yd line on the very next play
    Lockett breaking his leg, unleashing Baldwin
    Carr breaking his leg, Crabtree didn’t catch another pass after that.
    Crabtree stuck at 90yds
    Garcon stuck at 94yds
    Thomas stuck at 98yds
    DJ stuck at 95yds

    So, I am not here to say that I tinkered my way out of a million or that the system is crooked or whatever… I am a very lucky person when it comes to love, family, health, where I live, where I lived and my place in the community. But when it comes to money and games, call it variance, call it luck, call it karma, call it the force dominating the universe…. at a certain point one must listen to the entire planet yelling “dude it isn’t going to happen for you! Give it up!”

  • Pitch120

    @Unico10 said...

    I let a couple of days go by and I feel better and I probably need to explain a bit better my post.

    I was not crushed by the loss of the opportunity per se and not by the loss of money as I invested a few hundreds to win those two tix…. I am crushed by the chain of events, which I am going to recap for everyone enjoyment and maybe it can be a useful lesson for someone.
    No sour grapes, more like reverse engineering or self-therapy…

    First of all. My mindset going in was to play one lineup as my usual cash lineup, therefore very likely to cash and one a bit more risky to try to win it all.
    30 minutes before lock this was my “cash” lineup.
    Rodgers, Howard, Gurley, Jordy, Meredith, Garcon, Rudolph, Olsen, Pats.
    Lineup would have scored 199.18 and placed high enough to win $10k

    I then made a minor change, going from Gurley to Blount and from Olsen to Crabtree.
    This would have scored 202.58 to finish 33rd and win $12.5k

    I saved it and moved to the 2nd lineup, on which I had decided to go cheap at QB and get exposure to the OAK-IND and the TB-NO games.
    The lineup looked like this
    Savage-Gurley-DMM-TY Hilton-Thomas-Lockett-Brate-Nuk-SEA this would have crashed and burned.

    I decided to fade DMM and SEA dst w/Lockett as I was convinced DJ was going to get his and that he was the perfect GPP play as lower owned and possibly higher raw points RB.
    To fit DJ I had to go lower at WR and I was NOT going to drop TY as I was convinced he was in the perfect spot for a huge game… shortening up the story, that led me to drop the exposure to the NO-TB game to the TE spot and, due to pricing, I put Meredith and Garcon in there.
    The lineup became this:
    Savage-Gurley-DJ-TY-Garcon-Meredith-Fleener-Nuk-PAT – scored 154.14

    At this point is less than 5 minutes to lock and I should just leave everything alose, but I was uneasy having exposure in both lineups to Meredith and Garcon plus with the storms here in Cali having cleared up for the most part, my conviction on TY was even higher so….
    I went back to the main lineup (wish DK would have a “voluntarily lock and throw away the key function”….)

    That lineup locked like this…
    Rodgers-Howard-Hillman-Jordy-Thomas-Crabtree-V Davis-TY-SD scored 160.58

    Both cashed in Chop Block, 3 entry max and Front 4 Championships.

    Hindsight is easy to see where I went wrong. Jamming players at the last minute is never a good idea.
    Also not a good idea is to put a player without floor in a lineup with seconds to go. I did go back but didn’t have material time to revert to my previously saved lineup.

    However. I did get many things right and the games developed for the most part the way I envisioned.
    Faded Brady and NE passing game and Brady got benched with a big lead
    Faded Julio
    Faded DMM and Tennessee
    Was bothered by BUF scoring binge, but at the end of the early games my lineups were in good shape and didn’t see the need to make any changes.
    Hillman only got me 1.5 and Davis 2.30, but was still in good shape vs the field with Hilton, Crabtree and Thomas to go in one and the other lineup had 62 with 6 positions to go.
    My main mistake was to overlook Ingram at 4,400 for fear of Hightower and gameflow

    With 8 minutes to go in the SEA-ARI game I am hovering around 200 place with one and only needing about 15pts combined from Savage and Nuk to cash the other one….

    Near the end of that game I am above 400th place with one and 18pts out with the other…. than NFL revises a stat and Hillman loses a reception for -1yds that become a rush attempt. Lost 0.9pts on that revision.
    At the end of the game I am in 432nd place and need 20-22pts combined from Savage-Nuk to cash the other.
    Nuk is 31% owned and get nothing until late in the 4th when he get just enough to get me 0.56 off the cash line…. Savage and Nuk combine for just about 15pts

    When I look at all my past “bad beats” and look at what happened (or didn’t) during the day
    Hillman stat revision
    Hillman stuffed at the goal line
    Davis dropping a wide open TD (Cousins kind of missed him too)
    Luck underthrowing TY in the end zone for a long TD
    Meredith tackled at the 1 yd line and…
    Howard vultured by Langford at the 1yd line on the very next play
    Lockett breaking his leg, unleashing Baldwin
    Carr breaking his leg, Crabtree didn’t catch another pass after that.
    Crabtree stuck at 90yds
    Garcon stuck at 94yds
    Thomas stuck at 98yds
    DJ stuck at 95yds

    So, I am not here to say that I tinkered my way out of a million or that the system is crooked or whatever… I am a very lucky person when it comes to love, family, health, where I live, where I lived and my place in the community. But when it comes to money and games, call it variance, call it luck, call it karma, call it the force dominating the universe…. at a certain point one must listen to the entire planet yelling “dude it isn’t going to happen for you! Give it up!”

    I have no idea what this post means.

  • depalma13

    So ChipotleAddict max entered and his brother didn’t have a single entry?

  • KindGuy

    @Pitch120 said...

    I have no idea what this post means.

    Shittttt, you read all of that? Kudos to you man.

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