INDUSTRY FORUM

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  • Ryazan

    • x3

      2015 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2015 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    Part 1:

    DFS is not gambling. You want to know why? I heard it on Dan Back’s podcast today and it is SUCH a perfect analogy. The bottom line is, look at it this way –

    say that myself, ehafner, tvsfrink, bcalicore, maxdalury, ect ect…..say that we all have 1 entry into a 50 person GPP. All of us sitting there creating lineups to try to win is skill/investing, but imagine if people could place BETS on which one of us would win – THAT would be gambling. Gambling is betting one 1 specific performance based outcome, and if you are placing bets and put $20 on Ehafner to win it all at 10 to 1 odds, you are gambling. Ehafner himself is not gambling, he is simply playing a contest that is made up of skill, strategy, investments, and yes in the end some luck.

    See what I’m getting at??

    Part 2:

    I read articles. I listen to podcasts/live shows (for entertainment). So many people giving out their advice to help others. But then they go and play in the same contests as the people that they are giving advice to, and they possibly take their money by beating them. It’s such a CLASSIC catch-22, because obviously you don’t want the people giving you advice to compete against you and potentially take the money that you put in….but at the same time, you don’t want someone giving you advice that doesn’t even play DFS.

    It’s a complete stale-mate/catch-22 scenario, because there isn’t really a good way to go about it. I have always been about keeping DFS advice to a minimum, because after all, we are all competition to each other. But honestly, tuning in to GrindersLive and hearing BigT or someone like that tell you who is good to play and who isn’t, and then they are RIGHT THERE in your contest – it just rubs me the wrong way. I am really hopeful that eventual regulation takes care of all of this anyway.

    In the end, DFS is becoming less fun to play on a nightly basis.

  • eom

    lol I see you lurking, eljefe……..

  • Olhausen

    @mannmicj said...

    The old saying was “work harder” and “build a better lineup.” It’s not about that anymore. It’s about someone else working harder with their program/projection and have that build a better lineup. The competition is so much better than just a year ago, hard work doesn’t create the edge it use to. Everyone one knows and shares everything. Saturating the DFS world with all the information you need to know. You can find it for free or pay someone to find it for you. The NBA is the sport that has been hit the hardest. Last second info is offered all over now and the variance just isn’t there to help in the NBA. It’s why I love the MLB. You simply can’t beat the MLB for variance.

    I Couldn’t agree with you more about the variance in MLB. I’m licking my chops to start my second full season as MLB was easily my most profitable sport. I barely play any NBA as I find hockey is easier to capitalize on the variance also. Now that I understand bankroll management a lot better I should have a good size bankroll for the start of the next NFL and NHL season.

  • draftngo

    @Shipmymoney said...

    I don’t think you understand lineup building/ how bad most “optimal lineups” are

    Really?? How hard is it to understand lineup building? The optimal lineups suck. I agree with that statement. A player with time and skill will use an optimizer correctly working to set the right parameters for the slate of the day.

    The problem is the players that blindly use the optimizer to just get some action on a game. Building 100 lineups with no research or work and plugging them into a tournament for the sake of action with no knowledge of which players are on any team.

    I know they get crushed this way, but they have basically built 100 quick pick lottery DFS tickets for a tournament. They would definitely lose over the long haul, but they have compromised the skill level of the game in the process.

  • Shipmymoney

    • 71

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #61

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • x3

      2016 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @draftngo said...

    I know they get crushed this way, but they have basically built 100 quick pick lottery DFS tickets for a tournament. They would definitely lose over the long haul, but they have compromised the skill level of the game in the process.

    I don’t understand how they’re compromising the skill level of the game by creating losing lineups. If my lineups are better than theirs, I don’t care how they generated them, my skill will make me money. Saying people will lose money by playing lineups that suck is basically agreeing that more skilled players will win.

    Also, wrt to lineup building, roster construction is the main edge winning players have at this point. Everyone knows the good plays every night

  • glennantz

    Its about money, that is the bottom line. When people understand that, you will understand why people do what they do.

  • Mattg45

    Part 2- absolutely agree

    Part 1- I agree, but I never thought dfs should have to defend itself. Just so hypocritical of the government, make dfs illegal but hey go to our casinos and lose as much as you can. Oh wait we can make dfs legal and regulate it, even thou there are bigger issues that need regulation like Wall Street.

  • draftngo

    I am a true believer in DFS being a game of skill. You are completely missing the point. When the idiot wins using a lineup that he built using that quick pick method is the problem. They are blindly gambling which is not the image I want for DFS. I praise the guy that has created his own lineup builder while working endlessly on projections and more. They truly are bright and talented DFS players.

    You are probably the latter, a hard working DFS player, even though I still disagree when the pros use these to mass enter into tourneys. I believe, if you don’t know who you have on your DFS team when you enter it, you are gambling.

    I understand you don’t care how the weak are losing, and to be honest I don’t care how much money they lose either. But you should care about the image of DFS, if you want to continue to reap the benefits. This industry needs to build an image that has been destroyed lately. This is the only part of DFS that I find unskilled by the way and it is only when they are used blindly.

  • jimmyrad

    @depalma13 said...

    184 people in a Single Entry college basketball tournament on Fanduel tonight had the exact same lineup. Every player in the exact same spot.

    It is beyond comical just how bad this has become.

    I hate, HATE this lineup selling horse shit more than anyone. That said let’s get one thing straight: 184 people putting the same lineup into a 10%+ to first GPP (and I think this covers just about every single GPP available) is a terrible mistake. Chance at top prize? 0, Top 5, 0, top 10, yep, ZERO. Top 10 equity is the only reason to play GPP’s. UPSIDE of 1/184th of 1-184 is a stupid idiotic way to play GPP’s, guaranteed long term loser, therefore +EV for the rest of us.

    You wanna burn these mfers for killing 50/50’s? I’ll happily join the mob. In the meantime lets not act like 184 drooling lemmings entering hopelessly -EV, often total trash lineups into GPP’s is a bad thing.

  • tjabchs6

    @jimmyrad said...

    I hate, HATE this lineup selling horse shit more than anyone. That said let’s get one thing straight: 184 people putting the same lineup into a 10%+ to first GPP (and I think this covers just about every single GPP available) is a terrible mistake. Chance at top prize? 0, Top 5, 0, top 10, yep, ZERO. Top 10 equity is the only reason to play GPP’s. UPSIDE of 1/184th of 1-184 is a stupid idiotic way to play GPP’s, guaranteed long term loser, therefore +EV for the rest of us.

    You wanna burn these mfers for killing 50/50’s? I’ll happily join the mob. In the meantime lets not act like 184 drooling lemmings entering hopelessly -EV, often total trash lineups into GPP’s is a bad thing.

    Your argument is very flawed. If you think they’re -EV in GPPs, what makes you think they’re +EV in 50/50s?

    Based on your comment, you clearly don’t care about trains if they’re helping you take home more cash in the long run. If you’re in favor of trains in GPPs because you think they’re -EV, there’s no reason you shouldn’t think they’re -EV in 50/50s as well – and thus there’s no reason you shouldn’t be in favor of them in 50/50s.

    If you thought your next response was going to be that they split prize money in GPPs but don’t split prizes nearly as often in 50/50s, then you have to ask yourself if the entire collection of lineups spit out by optimizers and sold by touts are +EV in 50/50s.

    The answer to that is no.

  • RU18QT

    • Blogger of the Month

    @stevietpfl said...

    I gave out picks for NASCAR this weekend that crushed, had a lot of thank you tweets, and I still made over 5k. I didn’t erase any edge for myself, because at the end of the day, the skill is making a lineup.

    my friend doesn’t know anything about nascar what so ever but used a projection/algorithm site and made a few grand. He spent about three minutes clicking “calculate best team” and then putting those teams into the contest. Where’s the skill in that? That’s what’s really killing the industry. Sure he won’t win like that every time and won’t win in the long run, but odds are a lot better making money doing that than picking random drivers which is something he would have done had he not used this program. You could offer him a million dollars if he can name ten drivers and he wouldn’t be able to do it.

    I also think it’s funny how a lot of the true experts are now selling information and doing seminars because they are smart, this isn’t going to be a profitable business by just playing in a few years with everything that is out there.

  • tjabchs6

    @RU18QT said...

    my friend doesn’t know anything about nascar what so ever but used a projection/algorithm site and made a few grand. He spent about three minutes clicking “calculate best team” and then putting those teams into the contest. Where’s the skill in that? That’s what’s really killing the industry. Sure he won’t win like that every time and won’t win in the long run, but odds are a lot better making money doing that than picking random drivers which is something he would have done had he not used this program. You could offer him a million dollars if he can name ten drivers and he wouldn’t be able to do it.

    I also think it’s funny how a lot of the true experts are now selling information and doing seminars because they are smart, this isn’t going to be a profitable business by just playing in a few years with everything that is out there.

    How exactly is it killing the industry? People always make this claim without any reasoning. If anything, it causes more people to play, who otherwise wouldn’t have played.

  • RU18QT

    • Blogger of the Month

    @tjabchs6 said...

    How exactly is it killing the industry?

    I guess it isn’t killing the industry more than it’s killing the “edge”. When people don’t know shit something but can somehow compete and do well by clicking on a button.

  • mannmicj

    @RU18QT said...

    I also think it’s funny how a lot of the true experts are now selling information and doing seminars because they are smart

    I think the “experts” are doing this for many reasons. One is to make money, the other is that they are no longer winning as often either, but have their early successes to sell. It’s a good option for them.

  • gibbathy

    2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year

    • Blogger of the Month

    As someone who shells out information here I find this thread comical in direct relation to my situation (and my situation only). I dedicated most of 2015 focusing on my writing. I played enough DFS to stay sharp but not enough to have any bias creep in. Well last year I got harpooned on Twitter multiple times and called out on these forums as having no credibility because of a low ranking in the sport I write about. In 2015 I never played vs my readers (unless MaxDulary and BrettFarve4444 read my articles). Trading wins week to week with the two best (for low stakes because I’m not stupid) was more of an achievement than fishing.

    I feel like I am one of the longest DFS PGA writers in the industry. Do I feel like I’ve damaged the industry? Far from it. Back when I started PGA knowledge was scarce. I feel I’ve helped people get into a sport they may not have stuck around for.

  • DefinitelyMiami

    @gibbathy said...

    As someone who shells out information here I find this thread comical in direct relation to my situation (and my situation only). I dedicated most of 2015 focusing on my writing. I played enough DFS to stay sharp but not enough to have any bias creep in. Well last year I got harpooned on Twitter multiple times and called out on these forums as having no credibility because of a low ranking in the sport I write about. In 2015 I never played vs my readers (unless MaxDulary and BrettFarve4444 read my articles). Trading wins week to week with the two best (for low stakes because I’m not stupid) was more of an achievement than fishing.

    I feel like I am one of the longest DFS PGA writers in the industry. Do I feel like I’ve damaged the industry? Far from it. Back when I started PGA knowledge was scarce. I feel I’ve helped people get into a sport they may not have stuck around for.

    Solid (not so) humble brag post. Congrats on your success

  • wolfjb1

    @gibbathy said...

    As someone who shells out information here I find this thread comical in direct relation to my situation (and my situation only). I dedicated most of 2015 focusing on my writing. I played enough DFS to stay sharp but not enough to have any bias creep in. Well last year I got harpooned on Twitter multiple times and called out on these forums as having no credibility because of a low ranking in the sport I write about. In 2015 I never played vs my readers (unless MaxDulary and BrettFarve4444 read my articles). Trading wins week to week with the two best (for low stakes because I’m not stupid) was more of an achievement than fishing.

    I feel like I am one of the longest DFS PGA writers in the industry. Do I feel like I’ve damaged the industry? Far from it. Back when I started PGA knowledge was scarce. I feel I’ve helped people get into a sport they may not have stuck around for.

    Yep. You can’t win with most of these unreasonable people posting here.

    If you’re a guy who gives advice and plays and wins a lot, you’re a shill, you’re cheating, you’re harming DFS, you’re doing something wrong, etc.

    If you’re a guy who gives advice but doesn’t rank high, you have no credibility and you suck.

  • eom

    @gibbathy said...

    I feel like I am one of the longest DFS PGA writers in the industry.

    I’ve been told length is overrated

  • gibbathy

    2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year

    • Blogger of the Month

    @eom said...

    I’ve been told length is overrated

    That’s not what she said.

  • tvsfrink

  • Cityworkout

    The advice/info services are not going to stop.

  • TheRyanFlaherty

    There’s a big difference between providing information – highlighting favorable matchups and/or players at various price points to key in on – and then the user having to take that information (along with potentially other sources) to create their own lineup…and selling a lineup (for use) to somebody.

    While I’m sure there are exceptions to this rule, there is an entire generation who is fueled by a desire to have what they want, when they want it, with as little effort as possible…so this really shouldn’t be a surprise…and if sites don’t do anything, it;s only going to continue to get worse.

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