STRATEGY FORUM

Comments

  • sethayates

    With both FD and DK running Week 1 $200 NFL tournaments, I’m curious how many of you are attacking the $25 and $27 Satellites in MLB. For those of you who are, what is your strategy or risk tolerance? Mostly, I have been playing the $25 Satelite on FD because they offer one nightly that pays 6 tickets at the $25 level. So far I have played 5 times and won 1 ticket. So I have spent $125 to win a $200 ticket. That’s fine with me. I actually won the ticket on the 3rd try and could have stopped. My goal is to get 3-5 tickets before next Sunday. I figure if I get at least 3 tickets I will cash at least 1 for $500 (based on my NFL win rates in GPP from last year). With that being said, I’m willing to risk up to $500 to win those tickets. Do you guys think that is bad logic? I’m gambling on hypothetical winnings. A different strategy would be to set aside the $200 that would get you 1 entry and play 8 different satelites. Anything you win over 1 ticket is just a bonus. I have mostly been targeting the $25 Satelites as those seem to play like cash games on FD. What is your strategy? Do you multi enter to increase your chances of getting a ticket? Do you run a train so that if you do win you will get more than 1 ticket? Let’s hear it, time is running out. On a side note with DK winding down their MLB season this week it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see a few Super Sattelites paying 50-100 of these $200 Tickets. If that happens will you play it like a cash game or a stack? Discuss…

  • JohnnyTsunami

    I say if you got the bankroll (and I know you do as you took down a fairly large gpp not long ago) go for it. Mow em down Seth. Run that train! 😁

    I haven’t had much success In sats as I’ve only played in a few bit it seems like guys are always riding the train. Good luck man!

  • pmsimkins

    • 2014 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    Satellites are very close to always a bad bet unless they’re necessary for you to afford or gain entry to the tourny.

  • Bulbus2

    @pmsimkins said...

    Satellites are always a bad bet unless they’re necessary for you to afford or gain entry to the tourny.

    This is not true. Why do you believe this?

  • pmsimkins

    • 2014 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @Bulbus2 said...

    This is not true. Why do you believe this?

    This is based on the assumption you’re a profitable player

    When you play qualifiers to win entry into future tournaments you’re taking money out of your bankroll that could have been working for you right up until the time of the tourney.

    Basically, if you’re a profitable player every dollar you have to play with has some greater future value. By taking that money and letting the website hold it for you you’ve cheated yourself out of that profit.

    They don’t offer these huge tourneys with a zillion qualifiers as a favor to you or other low dollar players. Despite them marketing it that way. It’s hugely profitable for them, which means it’s not profitable for you.

  • jecarl2

    Not to mention the rake on a lot of these satellites exceeds 12%. The DFS lobbys are flooded with these things for a reason.

  • sethayates

    @pmsimkins said...

    Satellites are always a bad bet unless they’re necessary for you to afford or gain entry to the tourny.

    Hmmmm……So I would guess you are the type of player who would play a $25 9 man to win $202.50 as opposed to a $25 qualifer to win $200 ticket?

    I’m not saying you are wrong. I have tried all sorts of various things. I would tend to agree with you that winning a ticket very early on isn’t the smartest move for your bankroll. For example picking up a $200 KOTD ticket in april wasn’t doing you any good until you could actually redeem it in August. the interesting thing though is those were actually the easiest KOTD tickets to win. The closer you get to a contest the tougher the compeition seems to get.

  • pmsimkins

    • 2014 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    I’ll place one caveat on my claim. The one way the quals can be a good deal is if you find one that overlays and the tourny you’re winning the ticket to does not overlay.

    Whether this covers your loss in future profits depends on your ROI and the length of time before the tourny.

  • Bulbus2

    @pmsimkins said...

    I’ll place one caveat on my claim. The one way the quals can be a good deal is if you find one that overlays and the tourny you’re winning the ticket to does not overlay.

    Whether this covers your loss in future profits depends on your ROI and the length of time before the tourny.

    Which is what I was getting at, satellites are not ALWAYS a bad bet. I’ve always found it easier to find overlay in satellites than regular GPPs. Agree with everything else that you said though.

  • ranoa513

    @pmsimkins I think you may be overstating your claim a little though. If you are managing your bankroll wisely, the money held in a ticket would most likely just be sitting in your bankroll anyway because you aren’t playing your entire bankroll every night. Holding a ticket won’t change how profitable you are, and it also, in most cases I suspect, won’t change the future value of your bankroll much at all.

  • pmsimkins

    • 2014 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @sethayates said...

    Hmmmm……So I would guess you are the type of player who would play a $25 9 man to win $202.50 as opposed to a $25 qualifer to win $200 ticket?

    Absolutely. The part you’re leaving out is that I’d then make my original bet plus my profits work for me each day until the tourney. It’s effectively compound interest. Tourney time will come and you’ll have a $200 ticket. I’ll buy a $200 entry and have money left over in my pocket.

    I realize you’re making a tongue in cheek statement, but if you look at my results I’m anything but risk adverse. That being said I’m not going to place bad bets.

  • pmsimkins

    • 2014 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @ranoa513 said...

    @pmsimkins I think you may be overstating your claim a little though. If you are managing your bankroll wisely, the money held in a ticket would most likely just be sitting in your bankroll anyway because you aren’t playing your entire bankroll every night. Holding a ticket won’t change how profitable you are, and it also, in most cases I suspect, won’t change the future value of your bankroll much at all.

    That kind of thinking is the biggest obstacle to profitability people have in any form of gambling. Aside from just sucking at the game of course.

    What difference does throwing away a couple bucks make, right? None when you do it once, but you’re not going to do it once. You may do it 100s of times over the course of a year.

  • pmsimkins

    • 2014 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @Bulbus2 said...

    Which is what I was getting at, satellites are not ALWAYS a bad bet. I’ve always found it easier to find overlay in satellites than regular GPPs. Agree with everything else that you said though.

    Fair point. I changed it to “very close” to always.

    Keep in mind you can overlay hunt in $ games too.

  • kaetorade

    • 2013 DraftStreet DSBBC Finalist

    To echo pmsimkins’ sentiments, the only time I’d play in a satty is if there’s good value(usually in the form of overlay). Otherwise, it’s just silly. Assuming all things equal, it’s like letting the site borrow your money, interest-free, until the Tourney starts. Nty.

  • 00oreo00

    • x3

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x5

      2014 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    @kaetorade said...

    To echo pmsimkins’ sentiments, the only time I’d play in a satty is if there’s good value(usually in the form of overlay). Otherwise, it’s just silly. Assuming all things equal, it’s like letting the site borrow your money, interest-free, until the Tourney starts. Nty.

    Also getting raked twice really kills your ROI. I agree you should only play if their is significant overlay.

  • lilprog

    • Blogger of the Month

    Wow no offense to anyone but there is some really bad advice in here…

    First off if you are practicing proper bankroll management you aren’t loaning the sites your money because it just represents part of the 90% you aren’t using each night so that should be a non factor

    Second it’s very easy to find overlays in satellites. Especially on draftkings. Just need to know when and where to look. You also have to factor not just overlay in statues but overlay in the main tournament. I’m playing Qs to the dk 500$ Friday because I think it will overlay if you think either nfl will overlay there is added value to the satellites

    Third there is less roster disparity in satellites then in regular gpps. Compare scores in satellites to similar sized Gpp fields. You find more overlap and lower scores. This makes them more exploitable and more profitable

    Lastly as someone mentione before. They are a great way to take shots on a limited bankroll. $500 can be out of your range but firing a few $27 bullets a night in your range. Especially on a site like draftkings where there will be some dead money stacks in the tourney and top twenty percent is hardly an impossible feat. Using satellites can be a great bankroll booster

  • lilprog

    • Blogger of the Month

    @00oreo00 said...

    Also getting raked twice really kills your ROI. I agree you should only play if their is significant overlay.

    This is totally irrelevant if you are profitable in both contests.

  • sethayates

    So after giving this some more thought based on the input here I still think Satellites are a viable strategy. When I play a sattelite I do factor in how long it will be until I redeem the ticket. pmsimpkins point makes sense when you are talking about an entry that is several months away. I also tend to agree that for satellites that only award 1 ticket you might be better off in a similar sized league. The sattellites that I htink are worth targeting are the ones that pay multiple tickets. Other than the booster games on DK there aren’t any leagues that just pay $200 to the top 6 positions. If you are trying to win $200 to enter the sunday million I think you stand a better chance in a 54 player satellite that pays 6 tickets as opposed a 9 player winner take all game that pays $202.50 to 1st only. I think there is value in satelites but the points being made here should be considered when building a strategy.

  • pmsimkins

    • 2014 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @lilprog said...

    Wow no offense to anyone but there is some really bad advice in here…

    The “bad” advice is based on straightforward logic, math and investing 101. In the end though the quals are great for my profitability by pulling more dead money into higher dollar tournys, so who am I to complain. No different than stacking or multiple LU, which are wrongly considered +EV.

    Time to stop being the guy at the poker table who feels the need to teach others how to play. :-)

  • JeffElJefe

    • 801

      RG Overall Ranking

    • $1M Prize Winner

    • x2

      2019 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    @pmsimkins said...

    This is based on the assumption you’re a profitable player

    When you play qualifiers to win entry into future tournaments you’re taking money out of your bankroll that could have been working for you right up until the time of the tourney.

    Basically, if you’re a profitable player every dollar you have to play with has some greater future value. By taking that money and letting the website hold it for you you’ve cheated yourself out of that profit.

    They don’t offer these huge tourneys with a zillion qualifiers as a favor to you or other low dollar players. Despite them marketing it that way. It’s hugely profitable for them, which means it’s not profitable for you.

    You’re never going to have 100% of your bankroll in play at a time anyway, so it doesn’t matter whether a small part of your bankroll is in dollar or ticket form.

  • donkshow

    You also have to remember that not only do you have to come in the top 12.5% to get a ticket, you than have to come in the top 10-15% to cash (on FD) in the main tournament.

    Finishing in the Top 15% in 2 tournaments is a lot harder than doing so in 1 tournament.

  • lilprog

    • Blogger of the Month

    @pmsimkins said...

    The “bad” advice is based on straightforward logic, math and investing 101. In the end though the quals are great for my profitability by pulling more dead money into higher dollar tournys, so who am I to complain. No different than stacking or multiple LU, which are wrongly considered +EV.

    Time to stop being the guy at the poker table who feels the need to teach others how to play. :-)

    I come from a poker background and pretty much disagree with everything your talking about. +EV in the dfs world and +EV in the poker world are COMPLTELY different, because there isn`t this factor of “hourly rate” in dfs…

    I`ll take a 5% roi off of 10k in buyins over a 10% roi on 1k in buyins any day of the week….

  • pmsimkins

    • 2014 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    I don’t think I compared anything to poker in this thread. Just was making a smart comment.

    Totally agree on the last line of your last comment. Obviously there are a finite amount of tournies thus you have to sacrifice ROI to put more money in the middle and up profit dollars. The problem is that guys who play $20 a day think they should employ these strategies. At that level ROI is all that matters as getting money in play is a non-issue.

    You can disagree, no worries! Like I said, I’ll stick with math and logic proofs.

  • e4e5nf3nc6

    • 168

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #38

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2015 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    Some thoughts…

    1. The whole double raked idea is silly. If I play a $10 league and take the $50 winnings to enter a $50 tournament, am I double-raked? If I enter a $10 satty and win a ticket to a $50 tourney, am I double-raked?

    2. As someone else pointed out, you shouldn’t have that much of your bankroll in play at a time anyway. So who cares if a little bit is tied into tickets? As long as…

    3. You don’t play satellites to tournaments you wouldn’t buy into without a ticket anyway (oops triple negative). I think this is a good rule of thumb. One which I dont always follow :) So if you mainly play the Check Swing and Payoff ($12 and $27), play satellites to those tournaments. I realize that it is super conservative so I go ahead and dabble a little bit in $200 satellites and even atlantis trips. But I’m willing to throw a couple entries into a $200 tourney some nights so I’m still somewhat within the rule. The atlantis trip stuff is outside this rule as I am not willing to cough up $50000 for a buyin. But I cant help a little bit fun there. I am a supreme bankroll nit so I make myself goof around a wee bit.

    Last note: I enjoyed your preseason write-ups Seth. Good stuff!

  • jtwfantasy

    Unless the ticket is needed to gain entry to a tournament without a buy-in, it will tend to be a losing proposition. Most of these satellites tend to be bought up by more elite players. Unless you believe you are on par or better then them, you will tend to spend more money chasing then what the tickets are worth. I would rather use the money spent chasing satellites building up my bankroll on Dub-ups and 50/50s and enter the tournament directly. Especially if that tournament is a long ways away. The only time I would consider entering a satellite would be if I have a line-up I am very confident in.

  • colinwdrew

    • 305

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2020 DraftKings FHWC Champion

    • 2018 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    It’s a catch-22.

    If satellites are a bad investment, then the best players with bankrolls should avoid satellites. If the best players avoid satellites, so only bad or uneducated players should play satellites. Than they are easier games. If they are easier games, they have higher ROI. Therefore, satellites are a good investment. Therefore the best players should play satellites…

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