PGA FORUM

  • whodat2

    When: May 16-19

    Where: Farmingdale, NY

    Course: Bethpage Black | A Par 70 playing at 7432 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Brooks Koepka at -16

    Last Year’s Cut: Even Par

    Coverage:
    Thursday & Friday,
    1 pm – 7 pm on TNT

    Saturday & Sunday,
    11am – 2pm on TNT
    2pm – 7pm on CBS

    Live Streaming at PGAChampionship.com

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..!

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    Just put together a little blog for the Championship that should be available soon. It’s funny because I use a little bit of stats but nothing too in depth. Just a couple things to look at but maybe my “reasoning” is wrong. But yeah stats aren’t end all be all for me.

  • NoLimits0

    yea I greatly manually lowered the SG stats of Emiliano Grillo and Ben An. I can’t believe their SG stats are so good if you look at their finishing positions this season. Makes no sense. I lowered both of their SGs to be lower than like Poulter.

    I’m probably gonna do the same with Kokrak. Can’t see why his SG are that high like an elite player. I think all 3 have over inflated stats.

  • mtdurham

    @NoLimits0 said...

    It’s not just the ball striking. He’s just one of the few sub 9k guys who actually has a non negligible win equity which is hard to find.

    There is a 29 year old in this tourney who is in the 8k range who has 1 PGA Tour Victory (Puerto Rico Open). There is a 27 year old in this tourney in the 8k range who has only 1 PGA Tour Victory (Shriners). Then there is another 27 year old in this tourney in the 8k range who already has 5 PGA Victories.

    Finau, Cantlay, Matsuyama.

    Given how high Finau is owned one would think Finau is both younger and has more PGA victories than Mats but it’s the reverse. In fact Patrick Reed (who is in the same range) has 6 PGA Tour wins including the Masters and is 1 year younger than Finau. And Finau costs more than both Reed and Hideki.

    Anyways thus these are why I think he’ll be chalky. So if you ask yourself “will Hideki be 20% likely to be in the winning lineup”. If your answer is no, I recommend a full fade on him since that’ll give you massive leverage.

    I agree with a few of your points and disagree with others.

    Finau is a noted fantasy stud. Perhaps he hasn’t got the career victories but he’s a fantasy point scorer that always seems to find himself in or amongst the leaders in DFS scoring each week particularly compared to his peers in pricing. Hideki is the complete opposite in that regard …

    And if i were playing 500 lineups and thought hideki was 10% likely to appear in the winning lineup at 20% ownership I wouldn’t fade him fully id play him around 10%. If i fade him entirely I end up just as wrong as the field.

    That’s a pretty important MME concept that I hear a lot of people get wrong. And while it’s true we “cant play everybody” we need to be careful that we dont use that as an excuse to make Collective -EV decisions

  • mtdurham

    @1UPonSmileyK said...

    What do you guys think about Poulter this week? While his GIR and putting have been solid, he is not a long hitter and has low win equity. He has two top 40 performances at Bethpage in two starts with one being a top-20. Alot of things going for him, but think he might be overplayed in balanced lineups at his price range.

    I can’t get on board with poulter. He just doesn’t do enough fantasy scoring for me. He’s more of a cash play than gpp usually bc he tops out more around top 20-25 at a fairly low price. He’s usually quite chalky too

  • Wander_Bread

    Brooks Koepka on Barstool Sports’ Fore Play podcast today. Pretty interesting listen. This guy is straight confidence when it comes to major championships.

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 675

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    The way I see roster construction this week you basically have 2 decent options:

    Option #1: Stuff as many $7600 and up guys on your roster as you can and leave yourself with only 1 guy under that as your “punt”. There is a dramatic drop off from Webb/Poulter/Kokrak to the 7500 and under crowd.

    Option #2: True stars and scrubs. Like I said before, once you get to 7500 and under there is very little difference to me between say Brandt Snedeker and like Scott Piercy and Julian Suri. Starting with Matt Wallace at 6700 there are actually some pretty decent golfers that if you can find the right combo of them with the high priced guys you have GPP winning upside.

    I see option #1 as more of a cash/single entry method and option #2 as a large field GPP method. I’ll be using 50/50 of these two methods. I will be fading lots of guys completely that are like 8400 and up. I’m also only playing 50-60 lineups this week as opposed to 150 max like I usually do. So much variance in this field.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    General question here: I see that Mike from smartgolfbets used past Bethpage performances for course history while Notorious from RG used past PGA Championship performances. Do you guys think that both are relevant?

  • mtdurham

    @BIF said...

    Most of you know that I’m not really a fan of the publically available stats that so many on here live and die by as I believe there is a ton of variance between weeks, courses, conditions, weather, etc… that basically makes large samples merely an average that doesn’t line up with the event we are looking at.

    Going with that mentality, I have seen a couple posts this week that are head scratchers for me – one was the one showing how bad Moli is in a few categories and the other was about Cantlay’s poor sand play.

    Moli is one of the best ball strikers on tour and his iron play should be considered elite – of course when any player is off it’ll be a bad week – he was incredibly precise at the Match Play for the better part of 7 rounds and none of those rounds were tracked for stats; same with The Masters however his stats were tracked for the windy RBC Heritage where MC’d.

    Now on to Sand save percentage stats are ones that really need to be drilled down to see what you are actually looking at. The stats/info that I actually do care about is not readily available and requires a little manipulation. The sand save % stat is simply that but there are some extra columns on the chart that allow you to dig deeper. Along with the %, we are provided with # of rounds recorded, # of saves, # of bunkers hit and interestingly enough how many Over/Under Par a player was on those holes where they hit a greenside bunker.

    Now on to Cantlay, one can easily see he ranks T111 in sand saves at 49.1% but that is derived from 27/55 saves in 41 rounds. So…he averages being in only 1.341 bunkers per round which moves him up a fair bit – let’s compare that with RCB who ranks one spot above Cantlay at 110th in saves at 49.5% on 48/97 in 49 recorded rounds. RCB hits it in 1.98 bunkers per round. Cantlay loses 0.683 shots a round to unsaved bunkers based on going 49.1% on his 1.341 bunkers per round where RCB loses a full shot a round because he goes 49.5% on his 1.98 bunkers per round .

    Also another stat within this stat is when and where these guys are hitting these bunkers – Cantlay is a longer hitter and often going for Par 5’s in two. In his 55 bunkers that he has hit, he is only +9 (or nine over par) on those holes. He has saved himself only 27/55 times but only 9 over par so this tells you that a high percentage of his bunkers have been on par5 where he was there in two so he still made par when he didn’t get up and down. Again, lets compare to that “equally bad” bunker player RCB who is +31 on the 97 holes he has been in a greenside bunker. Cantlay only averages +0.16 over par per bunkered hole where RCB averages +0.32 over par so RCB is either in more bunkers on Par3/4 holes or in bunkers on Par 5’s in 3 shots.

    Similar comparisons can be looked at when you see Tiger at T197 in sand saves at only 40.7% but he has only hit in 27 bunkers in 25 rounds so only 1.08 bunkers per round which is very good therefore his poor save percentage is not killing him much as he doesn’t hit many bunkers but he is +9 on the 27 holes he has been bunkered on so he is playing those holes in +0.33 over par.

    Try to understand what these stats mean and don’t take them all at face value – and don’t forget many events (and some rounds within events where they use multiple courses) do not have ST data recorded.

    Yea i think this is all very good info. I’m a pretty big stats guy for sports like baseball where we have tons of data points… then basketball im a big stats guy but I understand the nuances well enough in that sport to make the kind of comparisons like you are here in golf… football im half nuance/ half stats probably…

    With golf I think i get a better feel by watching guys play than using blanket stats… I mean generalizing sand save % seems like a pretty broad brush… one guy might be peppering fairway bunkers on wayward drives while the other guy is coming up short on par 3s… Just seems like there aren’t a ton of great apples to apples comparisons.

    Another big one for me is driving accuracy. Some guys can dial it back and add accuracy much better than others it seems

  • mtdurham

    @NoLimits0 said...

    13%? Wow that’s so low. I would think he’s 20% in the higher stake entries, at least 15% in MM. You get more leverage the higher he is. Like fading him at 13% is way different than fading him at 20%. They need to revise what Jordan’s predicted ownership currently is to 0% and add that to Hideki.

    Lol. Jordan is 3.5% . There are some truthers still out there. At that price/ownership hes mucg more attractive than he generally is. I’ve been fading him for the last ~40 weeks and dont intend to start playing him now though

  • BIF

    @mtdurham said...

    Yea i think this is all very good info. I’m a pretty big stats guy for sports like baseball where we have tons of data points… then basketball im a big stats guy but I understand the nuances well enough in that sport to make the kind of comparisons like you are here in golf… football im half nuance/ half stats probably…

    With golf I think i get a better feel by watching guys play than using blanket stats… I mean generalizing sand save % seems like a pretty broad brush… one guy might be peppering fairway bunkers on wayward drives while the other guy is coming up short on par 3s… Just seems like there aren’t a ton of great apples to apples comparisons.

    Another big one for me is driving accuracy. Some guys can dial it back and add accuracy much better than others it seems

    Sand saves are only counted for greenside bunkers

  • CJtheGrump

    My typical golf week:

    Tuesday – Listen to a podcast or two. Grab key stats for the field, consider course history and recent form, Generate a spreadsheet where I highlight players based on stats and based on who the podcasts like.
    Wednesday – Enter contests with dummy lineups. Take a look at the Specialist article. Decide if any of the golfer highlighted there are worth a look. Sometimes they overlap with golfers my stat evaluations identify. Read an article or two.
    Thursday – someone kicks off a round with 7 straight bogeys. the rest of the field can’t miss.
    Friday – “So what’s my garbage lineup doing right now? Oh… a guy I thought was in good shape just put 2 tee shots in the water and now needs to birdie 2 of the last 3 holes to make the cut”
    Saturday – “Oh… 7 straight bogey guy made the cut? maybe there’s a chance I can salvage my entries after all…”
    Sunday – “Oh… MDF… forgot about that. RIP My entry fees. Press F to pay respects.”
    Monday – grab results and see if my analysis was on the right track

  • SiedleckiBrett

    I’m confused by this one. It says 2016 Reed won on your excel sheet by looking at the 2016 results Jimmy Walker was the winner. I’m sure I’m overlooking something but can somebody please explain whats going on when I look at the excel sheet to understand it

  • lfn1992

    @BIF said...

    Most of you know that I’m not really a fan of the publically available stats that so many on here live and die by as I believe there is a ton of variance between weeks, courses, conditions, weather, etc… that basically makes large samples merely an average that doesn’t line up with the event we are looking at

    Good info, BIF. It’s funny you mention this because I have started to look at different stats based on my “historical knowledge” instead of necessarily the YTD stats. For example Barnrat’s stats over this year have been bad (especially for PGA events) but I know what kind of golfer he is, so I was able to say “these approach stats are bullcrap for him, he’s actually a good SG:APP guy”. It does seem like my “hits” are more of this nature lately.

  • Pbasniper

    @SiedleckiBrett said...

    I’m confused by this one. It says 2016 Reed won on your excel sheet by looking at the 2016 results Jimmy Walker was the winner. I’m sure I’m overlooking something but can somebody please explain whats going on when I look at the excel sheet to understand it

    The excel sheet is showing Bethpage Black results, in 2016 there was a PGA event held their that Hefty Pat Reed won.

  • lfn1992

    @mtdurham said...

    I can’t get on board with poulter. He just doesn’t do enough fantasy scoring for me. He’s more of a cash play than gpp usually bc he tops out more around top 20-25 at a fairly low price. He’s usually quite chalky too

  • rmccullough1419

    Not much talk about Rory….

  • SiedleckiBrett

    @Pbasniper said...

    The excel sheet is showing Bethpage Black results, in 2016 there was a PGA event held their that Hefty Pat Reed won.

    Thank you, after writing this I found the tournament name that was last played here. It was the Northern Trust in 2016, played in August

  • timusbr

    @Felixxberg said...

    General question here: I see that Mike from smartgolfbets used past Bethpage performances for course history while Notorious from RG used past PGA Championship performances. Do you guys think that both are relevant?

    I think they both can be relevant. Not that I would be a fan of the PGA Performances from many different courses. My take is the association has much to say about the course set-up and I believe they are fairly consistant in making rough brutal and greens fast. I dont mind a look at all majors in one sheet. Comparisons on stats are not so relevant but ultimate performance and finishing isnt a bad way to determine what you want. The Bethpage performance data is left with a number of holes in my normal data collection. I dont have stats on 2002 or 2009. I like to do apple to apple comparisons and look at how 1 course plays for each golfer.

    What is interesting to me, I tried to take out all the club pro’s from the data, but 8 players this week have played in all 4 Bethpage events. 66 have never played Bethpage before in a PGA tournament. A lot of young guys have stepped up this year that were not around in 2016. I used this angle to find my “value” in golfers.

  • timusbr

    @CJtheGrump said...

    My typical golf week:

    LOL CJtheGrump,
    our starts are a bit different but my ending seems to be in line with you.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    Shameless self promotion for week but the blog is up. Critique as you feel necessary but hope it brings about a discussion or makes you think about a couple things.

    (https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/pga-championship-3029033)

  • mogan11

    Got my single bullet fired up and ready to go, feel like it is chalk city, but with the pricing I would assume most lineups feel that way. Going to be in punta cana all week so it is hard to get fired up, even with it being a major, but if I have a sweat on sunday I’ll find somewhere to watch.

    Good luck all

  • BrianVT

    @CJtheGrump said...

    My typical golf week:

    Don’t forget tinkering with all of the lineups after reading a bunch of noise in the RG forum

  • sfguy21

    @Pbasniper said...

    Hefty Pat Reed

    I thought we agreed on calling him Fatrick last week

  • smokeyca14

    @BrianVT said...

    Don’t forget tinkering with all of the lineups after reading a bunch of noise in the RG forum

    Every page i tinker lol

  • BrianVT

    @rmccullough1419 said...

    Not much talk about Rory….

    Final pairing with DJ on Sunday.

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