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  • whodat2

    When: May 16-19

    Where: Farmingdale, NY

    Course: Bethpage Black | A Par 70 playing at 7432 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Brooks Koepka at -16

    Last Year’s Cut: Even Par

    Coverage:
    Thursday & Friday,
    1 pm – 7 pm on TNT

    Saturday & Sunday,
    11am – 2pm on TNT
    2pm – 7pm on CBS

    Live Streaming at PGAChampionship.com

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..!

  • titanhawks

    @klf_is_gonna_rock_ya said...

    No one is talking about rickie.

    He’s in my Spieth/Rahm YOLO/contrarian LU

    Thinking these guys are better down south generally

  • Kp24

    @timgodd375 said...

    Is day supposed to be contrarian?

    I don’t think he’s gonna be super sneaky but he will be lesser owned than x.
    But as far as actually Contrarian, no I wouldn’t classify Day in that group

  • timgodd375

    Man people are saying day and Rickie are gonna be mildly low owned… gimme all of that

  • dangasin

    There is this pizza place in Chicago named Chicago Pizza and Oven Grinder Gompany. Mad good, they cook everything in a bowl and dump it out on your plate.

    St louis style pizza is not to shabby as well.

    Another good pizza place L&B spumoni gardens in brooklyn has fantastic sicilian slices.

  • titanhawks

    @timgodd375 said...

    Is day supposed to be contrarian?

    Day is always a medical/mental question mark but upside is always there and worth a play on the biggest stages; just don’t get crazy on shares

  • timgodd375

    @titanhawks said...

    Day is always a medical/mental question mark but upside is always there and worth a play on the biggest stages; just don’t get crazy on shares

    I am all in on WD equity hahaha Day and Oosty

  • hautalak

    • 2021 Blogger of the Month

    @timgodd375 said...

    I am all in on WD equity hahaha Day and Oosty

    Add on some Kevin Na and you got yourself a squad!

  • timgodd375

    Bubba has gotta be low owned right?

  • BIF

    @Kp24 said...

    I don’t think he’s gonna be super sneaky but he will be lesser owned than x.
    But as far as actually Contrarian, no I wouldn’t classify Day in that group

    Current RG projections have Day higher than Xander by 0.6% but basically both 18%

  • BIF

    @timgodd375 said...

    Man people are saying day and Rickie are gonna be mildly low owned… gimme all of that

    Those people are wrong as they won’t go underowned. – Rickie at 19+% and Day 18ish currently on projections.

  • BIF

    @timgodd375 said...

    Bubba has gotta be low owned right?

    10-12% but might settle in a little lower

    His Course History is holding up his ownership

  • Kp24

    @BIF said...

    Current RG projections have Day higher than Xander by 0.6% but basically both 18%

    Thanks for the updates sir.
    Hope me and you can take 1-2 in the big one.
    I’m swinging for the fences tho….pretty scrubby but if they hit……

  • mtdurham

    @timgodd375 said...

    Man people are saying day and Rickie are gonna be mildly low owned… gimme all of that

    Rickie always comes in as one of the Chalkiest plays on the board. People love playing him. Usually hes even higher than wherever hes projected by several points… I’ve given up on trying to play him profitably. I like the guy but statistically he doesnt really pop given his high price. And he just never comes In at low enough owners hip to really justify his high price either.

  • mitchsnyderdfw

    @Dewoc19 said...

    I’m way behind in this thread as you can see, but Chicago pizza IS the best pizza

    If you have to eat your pizza with a fork is it still pizza?

    Give me a couple slices from Joe’s in lower Manhattan any day.

  • BIF

    @Kp24 said...

    Thanks for the updates sir.
    Hope me and you can take 1-2 in the big one.
    I’m swinging for the fences tho….pretty scrubby but if they hit……

    👍

  • timgodd375

    Man, my team is way too high owned after that BIF update… Hopefully oosty can at least be sneaky

  • titanhawks

    @Cooper08 said...

    Hopefully we can gain some momentum

    Satellites Are Back Satellites Are Back
    For those of you who participated in the forum last year you may remember that we had a few satellite contests amongst the forum members which won you entry into bigger prized pool contests with fewer participants. Thanks to the DK community team we are able to bring these back this year. The plan is to have these satellite contests for the majors so you can use in the following major. Our ability to continue to receive these satellite contests will hinge on our ability to fill them.
    In order to compete you must be a member of the RotoGrinders Golf Forum League. If you would like to be added just ask. This will also give you access to play in the weekly Happy Meal contest along with the beat the forum H2H contests, both setup by Timusbr.
    This week for the PGA Championship we will be competing for tickets to be used for the US Open. The first satellite is for the $555 contest at the US Open. Last year this was a $444 contest with a prize pool of $750,000. I would imagine the prize pool this year to be around $800,000. The second satellite is for the $150 three max contest at the US Open. Last year the prize pool for this contest was $200,000. Both of these contests had less than 2,000 participants last year which is much better than competing against over 100,000 for a nice prize pool. We will also ha e satellite contests for the $75 3Max and $33 Single Entry.
    Entry fee for the $555 is $6 and pays a ticket for the winner. Entry fee for the $150 is $5 and pays a ticket to first and second place. While some will find the entry fee steep for a satellite and the majority will not win, in the end we will have forum members competing in contests that many can’t enter. In addition we will be able to root on some members in what could be a great sweat for some big money. Finally, if you don’t think you can win, you are wrong. The aforementioned Happy Meal contest has had a different winner each week and has similar participant as these satellite contests.
    IMPORTANT
    Some of these contests are set up as multi entry and you can multi enter immediately.
    Hopefully we can have some fun with this and we see the winners do well at the Masters increasing there bankroll or even hitting a big payday! Questions, fire away. Thanks
    Edit Link Quote Reply

    Bumping

    One filled and four to go

    I checked the league link on the top header and it doesn’t look like it is working but just ask any of the regs here and we will send you an invite

  • BIF

    @timgodd375 said...

    Man, my team is way too high owned after that BIF update… Hopefully oosty can at least be sneaky

    Oosty always underowned – prob 5-6%

  • heaterball

    What are these early projections based on??

  • NoLimits0

    Rickie Fowler probably has equal win equity to like Gary Woodland or Webb Simpson. All he does is like top 10 and never win. No upside GPP pick imo I would choose Xander over him any day of the week if you are trying to win a GPP

  • Kp24

    @heaterball said...

    What are these early projections based on??

    Touts, game theory math, previous ownership, a lot of math. Also when you pay for a service and generate lineups with that provider they also take who you are picking and who others are picking and make projected ownership.

    At the end of the day, it varies a lot. They are projections

  • mtdurham

    @heaterball said...

    What are these early projections based on??

    Golf is one of the easier sports to assign ownership projections to because we have A pretty good way to assign win equity, top 10 equity, etc to each golfer.

    A lot of it is just figuring out the approximate weighting the pros plan to use and then adding a few % to guys who are popular, recent great form, previous event winners, etc and reducing the opposite players

    Its not an exact science but I can basically guess a players ownership within +/- 2-4% most Of the time just by thinking about it. I normally get a feel for what type of lineups I think are optimal…. then I check ownership afterwards …. there are usually only a handful that are significantly different than I had imagined. Usually it’s mostly just a handful of younger guys i didnt notice were playing so well yet…guys like Scottie scheffler last week or Sam burns two weeks ago in Charlotte.

    Rarely, if ever, is it a guy like rickie Fowler who has a giant fan base whose ownership is that surprising.

    If you just take note of ownership closely each week it wont take long for pretty obvious fan favorites to emerge. It’s mostly the same guys around same place every week. Then you just adjust slightly if a guy is clearly priced higher/lower than his recent performance

    All that said, I’ve often been surprised at ownership in something like the pat mayo tournament. That clearly has more dedicated fans but isn’t as heavily weighted by pros bev ause its 3 max….its HIGHLY influenced by whoever the touts are hyping that week

    Sung kang was like 27% one week in that tournament when he was 12-15% elsewhere. That tournament can have highly skewed ownership compared to public ones. There have been many times when i played a guy i thought was a decent play who i would have faded without thinking twice if i had any clue he would be close to that chalky in that tournament

    Similarly, the happy meal ownership can vary quite a bit from predictions. Some up and coming guy like Neimann might be 3% elsewhere but 15% in the happy meal bc we all read/discuss him here…

    And i play some small private 20 man type leagues where honestly hideki could be 5% or 50% . Its hard to know with golf and small private league members who may be going off “feel”, touts, or some combination of both…

  • mtdurham

    This post isnt meant to be political so please don’t take it that way. But guessing ownership reminds me a lot of a conversation i had with a wise older man from Europe once.

    I was at a poker table in Atlantic city in 2004 and we were discussing the upcoming presidential election. I wouldn’t say the conversation got “heated” but naturally it got somewhat politically charged . I was mostly convinced George Bush would lose because i was a college aged kid and most people I knew were still kids and we watched msnbc like typical college kids and thought republicans were kinda old school and all. Anyway I made some typical college kid statement about how john Kerry could end the war by working thru the United nations or some bizarre logic that rubs off on most people around that age. This guy really set me straight. Told me all about how garbage the UN was and about the oil scandal going on at the time and how it was all a big money making scam. And that when Americans went in a voting booth none of this crap they talk about on tv will be on their minds anymore. Theyd only think of two things. Their families safety and their financial security. And that all this other stuff would be irrelevant and the election would be decided based on who the American people thought best represented them based on those two things. And that Bush would beat kerry handily bc Kerry was a weenie comparatively.

    All politics aside (seriously) he was exactly correct. And i learned a lot from that conversation.

    And i apply that type of thinking to a LOT of stuff these days ESPECIALLY gambling.

    Like look we can talk all week about this crap but ultimately when you go in to make your lineup. If you’re a $1 player who decides to play $33 single entry youre gonna play the guy you think will win, the guy you think will do well, the safety guy (kuchar at the masters), the sleeper of the week , the guy who won last year, etc…. that’s one reason chalky guys get chalkier as the stakes rise.

    No one goes into that booth and votes in a guy for president they dont think will protect his family and no one goes into the $555 and picks a guy they think will miss the cut.

    People want to play the person the touts told them it was okay to play. Just like people don’t want to vote for the guy who no one else is voting for. Once they see Barack Obama gaining momentum againsy hillary suddenly they felt like it was “okay to vote for him”… that’s like when other people see Fowler at 20% even though hes priced and owned higher than anyone who rates near him statistically.. they feel like they’ve been told its ok to play them bev ause they know other people are going to play him too. Similarly A lot of people play hideki every week because the touts tell them hes okay to play every week.

    If you start thinking that way it will help you project ownership . And it may help give you the confidence you need to play Denny McCarthy against all odds.

    Now the $0.25 stakes? That’s like voting for the county school board. People make whacky awful choices all the time

  • timusbr

    @mtdurham said...

    No one goes into that booth and votes in a guy for president they dont think will protect his family and no one goes into the $555 and picks a guy they think will miss the cut.

    but if you have a bankroll and are willing to take some risks. sometimes they pay off. You see the same names multi entry the higher stakes contests. I realized a long time ago that some financial positions are way better than mine. Some people play the $444 or $555 like I play the minimax.

  • mtdurham

    @timusbr said...

    but if you have a bankroll and are willing to take some risks. sometimes they pay off. You see the same names multi entry the higher stakes contests. I realized a long time ago that some financial positions are way better than mine. Some people play the $444 or $555 like I play the minimax.

    Right and thats where they get the edge. In poker you need to sit at stakes where you can make optimal decisions without thinking about the financial ramifications if you lose. DFS is similar in that regard…

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