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  • whodat2

    When: May 16-19

    Where: Farmingdale, NY

    Course: Bethpage Black | A Par 70 playing at 7432 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Brooks Koepka at -16

    Last Year’s Cut: Even Par

    Coverage:
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    1 pm – 7 pm on TNT

    Saturday & Sunday,
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    2pm – 7pm on CBS

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    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..!

  • mtdurham

    @NoLimits0 said...

    Looks to me Hideki will be massive chalk. Even in an event where everyone is low priced he’s especially low.

    Guy rates so well with ball striking that he’s basically gonna be chalk every week.

    While I do agree with the touts that ball striking is one of the most consistent stats from week to week I think its often overrated and relied on a bit too heavily.

    Like in hideki case hes a very consistent bad putter. Sure on average putting varies week to week by quite a bit for the field as a whole. But there are some guys out there who seem to putt poorly week after week.

    If everyone is obsessed with playing great ball strikers and bad putters im not sure that angle isnt overplayed by now… It’s certainly no great secret if its even exploitable at all

  • Pbasniper

    @titanhawks said...

    VJ has WD’d and JT Poston is now in

    This helps me because I was trying to talk myself out of punting VJ a few times.

  • timusbr

    @kdsdawg said...

    first I have seen Glover mentioned..his win was at a US Open wasn’t it…
    I plan on having him in quite a few of my L/Us
    means you should not

    yes Glovers win was 2009 US Open @ Bethpage.
    Sadly or to your advice, Glover did not make my player pool

    I was trying to build 3-5 LU’s and go with that but ended with 20 (4 to be played in bigger Gpp’s). I cant help myself. If I tried to do 20, I would have ended with 50-100.
    so 20 LU’s all with the same core of 3 golfers. and a player pool of 21.
    I cant help myself again. Koepke in a major. wont go against him, might as well pick him. I am a little bit worried about 2 days of playing with Tiger, but I felt before he could manage the distractions. my lowest priced golfer is Chez Reavie @ 6600( only 4/20 exposure). I think Chez can manage the course and not only make the cut but be T30 or better. He allows me to use all the salary available and is going to be key to Gpp plays I have.
    KSDT is the only other golfer below 7K that I have some of.

    good luck everyone

  • mtdurham

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    Honestly all the majors are about (at least in terms of fantasy) is having the right pool of under $7k guys so you can fit 4-5 world class players in.

    At the Masters for $6700 or less on DK you had Hoffman, Stanley, Kisner, Wise, Bjerrgard and Harding.

    If you had those guys chances are you fared pretty well. If you want Tiger this week (and you definitely do), just spend time researching the under 7k guys and find a pool of 6-8 that you like.

    Interesting perspective. Thus far I feel the opposite way at the majors (except the masters which I agree with you on due to field size)

    I really don’t like dipping down as much with so many strong players in the field and a more difficult golf course. It feels like the sub 7k are much less competitive, more likely to MC, and have a lot less top 10 equity in these fields.

    Meanwhile the balanced builds enable you to cram in guys in the 7.5-9k zone who have more upside than your typical mid price guys in normal events.

    But for this event in particular ive been leaning stars and scrubs myself . I’ll prob end up around 70% s&s and 30% balanced

  • noddy

    What are the odds that Campillo makes the cut?

  • Dunzor

    @mailnurs said...

    I don’t see it. Cantlay bubba scott phil sergio oosty all better plays and cheaper. Hideki gonna be 5-7%

    Hideki has basically never been 5-7% owned except when coming back from injury. As mentioned above he is a DFS darling due to his strong ball striking and usually being priced lower for a ‘elite’ talent level guy. Personally I don’t know if Hideki will be making my lineup, but I would be shocked if he were under 10% and I would guess he’s gonna be closer to 15%

  • lfn1992

    @MrBreeze said...

    euro followers, what is the recent form of Erik Van Rooyen?

    His recent form is pretty good, did very well at the Trophee Hassan II where he almost won, and also did decent at the Volvo China Open. Good ball-striker. But this is the biggest event he’s attended, I think – his first big PGA event, I think. He wasn’t in the Masters field.

  • lfn1992

    @dbullsfan said...

    I think someone might have mentioned him earlier, but Matt Wallace seems insanely mispriced. He is 31st in the OWGR and is $6700. Haven’t listened to any of the pods or industry chatter today but hope he doesn’t get talked up too much.

  • lfn1992

    Far and away my Tuesday Tilt regards Moli. He’s been tremendous, but he was last seen after a Tiger attack in the Masters. How does he bounce back from that collapse without at least one competitive tournament in between? He’s been really awesome the past three months, but I’m afraid that we’ll see a different Moli this week.

  • cjousma

    @lfn1992 said...

    His recent form is pretty good, did very well at the Trophee Hassan II where he almost won, and also did decent at the Volvo China Open. Good ball-striker. But this is the biggest event he’s attended, I think – his first big PGA event, I think. He wasn’t in the Masters field.

    He was at The (British) Open last year and finished 17th. But yes what he said ^.

  • NoLimits0

    Hideki will definitely be at least 15% owned. I can see him 20%+ the higher up you go in entries (where people build off of pure stats).

    I can also see Sergio and Cantlay as chalk, so if you want to avoid chalk don’t build a Hideki + Sergio + Cantlay lineup since that entire combo will be very popular among all possible 3 way combos.

  • NoLimits0

    @mtdurham said...

    Guy rates so well with ball striking that he’s basically gonna be chalk every week.

    While I do agree with the touts that ball striking is one of the most consistent stats from week to week I think its often overrated and relied on a bit too heavily.

    Like in hideki case hes a very consistent bad putter. Sure on average putting varies week to week by quite a bit for the field as a whole. But there are some guys out there who seem to putt poorly week after week.

    If everyone is obsessed with playing great ball strikers and bad putters im not sure that angle isnt overplayed by now… It’s certainly no great secret if its even exploitable at all

    It’s not just the ball striking. He’s just one of the few sub 9k guys who actually has a non negligible win equity which is hard to find.

    There is a 29 year old in this tourney who is in the 8k range who has 1 PGA Tour Victory (Puerto Rico Open). There is a 27 year old in this tourney in the 8k range who has only 1 PGA Tour Victory (Shriners). Then there is another 27 year old in this tourney in the 8k range who already has 5 PGA Victories.

    Finau, Cantlay, Matsuyama.

    Given how high Finau is owned one would think Finau is both younger and has more PGA victories than Mats but it’s the reverse. In fact Patrick Reed (who is in the same range) has 6 PGA Tour wins including the Masters and is 1 year younger than Finau. And Finau costs more than both Reed and Hideki.

    Anyways thus these are why I think he’ll be chalky. So if you ask yourself “will Hideki be 20% likely to be in the winning lineup”. If your answer is no, I recommend a full fade on him since that’ll give you massive leverage.

  • 1UPonSmileyK

    What do you guys think about Poulter this week? While his GIR and putting have been solid, he is not a long hitter and has low win equity. He has two top 40 performances at Bethpage in two starts with one being a top-20. Alot of things going for him, but think he might be overplayed in balanced lineups at his price range.

  • lfn1992

    I am definitely taking Leishman after the screwing he did to my LUs last week

  • BIF

    Most of you know that I’m not really a fan of the publically available stats that so many on here live and die by as I believe there is a ton of variance between weeks, courses, conditions, weather, etc… that basically makes large samples merely an average that doesn’t line up with the event we are looking at.

    Going with that mentality, I have seen a couple posts this week that are head scratchers for me – one was the one showing how bad Moli is in a few categories and the other was about Cantlay’s poor sand play.

    Moli is one of the best ball strikers on tour and his iron play should be considered elite – of course when any player is off it’ll be a bad week – he was incredibly precise at the Match Play for the better part of 7 rounds and none of those rounds were tracked for stats; same with The Masters however his stats were tracked for the windy RBC Heritage where MC’d.

    Now on to Sand save percentage stats are ones that really need to be drilled down to see what you are actually looking at. The stats/info that I actually do care about is not readily available and requires a little manipulation. The sand save % stat is simply that but there are some extra columns on the chart that allow you to dig deeper. Along with the %, we are provided with # of rounds recorded, # of saves, # of bunkers hit and interestingly enough how many Over/Under Par a player was on those holes where they hit a greenside bunker.

    Now on to Cantlay, one can easily see he ranks T111 in sand saves at 49.1% but that is derived from 27/55 saves in 41 rounds. So…he averages being in only 1.341 bunkers per round which moves him up a fair bit – let’s compare that with RCB who ranks one spot above Cantlay at 110th in saves at 49.5% on 48/97 in 49 recorded rounds. RCB hits it in 1.98 bunkers per round. Cantlay loses 0.683 shots a round to unsaved bunkers based on going 49.1% on his 1.341 bunkers per round where RCB loses a full shot a round because he goes 49.5% on his 1.98 bunkers per round .

    Also another stat within this stat is when and where these guys are hitting these bunkers – Cantlay is a longer hitter and often going for Par 5’s in two. In his 55 bunkers that he has hit, he is only +9 (or nine over par) on those holes. He has saved himself only 27/55 times but only 9 over par so this tells you that a high percentage of his bunkers have been on par5 where he was there in two so he still made par when he didn’t get up and down. Again, lets compare to that “equally bad” bunker player RCB who is +31 on the 97 holes he has been in a greenside bunker. Cantlay only averages +0.16 over par per bunkered hole where RCB averages +0.32 over par so RCB is either in more bunkers on Par3/4 holes or in bunkers on Par 5’s in 3 shots.

    Similar comparisons can be looked at when you see Tiger at T197 in sand saves at only 40.7% but he has only hit in 27 bunkers in 25 rounds so only 1.08 bunkers per round which is very good therefore his poor save percentage is not killing him much as he doesn’t hit many bunkers but he is +9 on the 27 holes he has been bunkered on so he is playing those holes in +0.33 over par.

    Try to understand what these stats mean and don’t take them all at face value – and don’t forget many events (and some rounds within events where they use multiple courses) do not have ST data recorded.

  • NoLimits0

    Yea Molinari’s stats are clearly wrong he’s more of a +1.5 SG: T2G player. I already manually edited it to be that even before these posts. Historically he grades out that way.

    I would think Jason Day’s and Patrick Reed’s stats are also wrong. They always grade out terrible in stats but they perform quite well.

  • mtdurham

    @mailnurs said...

    I don’t see it. Cantlay bubba scott phil sergio oosty all better plays and cheaper. Hideki gonna be 5-7%

    Well he definitely won’t be 5-7% . He’s projected at 13% right now and thats only likely to go higher IMO

    He’s burned enough people lately that I think he ends up 15-17% and doesn’t top 20% this week though.

    I’m off him completely I believe… wont make many of my lineups if any at all. I agree there are more attractive plays on both sides of him.

    He feels like a trappy, semi expensive 62 FPS type guy this week with more blowup potential than upside.

  • NoLimits0

    When I mention win equity, it’s like choosing Si Woo Kim. On average Kim is terrible. He’s like way worse than RCB at like the same price, but he has a much higher win equity than him. Kim like either top 10s or MCs/struggles to a bad finish after making the cut. Thus he’s actually a better play than RCB despite being the worse golfer.

  • BIF

    @mailnurs said...

    LOL dont tell these people this!!!! let them keep mindlessly using stats to make lineups HAHA why do you care your competition is finding reasons not to pick players based on stats from other courses and conditions!!!

    Ha ha – I was feeling charitable 🙄

    This is the main reason I don’t even attempt to automate anything I do; I do sometimes grab a table of stats of the PGA Tour stats pages and put it in Excel and start adding calculations in new columns and sorting to see how much a player moves up/down in a category based on “my stats” versus the readily available ones. It’s amazing how much they can be different.

  • NoLimits0

    @mtdurham said...

    Well he definitely won’t be 5-7% . He’s projected at 13% right now and thats only likely to go higher…

    13%? Wow that’s so low. I would think he’s 20% in the higher stake entries, at least 15% in MM. You get more leverage the higher he is. Like fading him at 13% is way different than fading him at 20%. They need to revise what Jordan’s predicted ownership currently is to 0% and add that to Hideki.

  • BIF

    @NoLimits0 said...

    Yea Molinari’s stats are clearly wrong he’s more of a +1.5 SG: T2G player. I already manually edited it to be that even before these posts. Historically he grades out that way.

    I would think Jason Day’s and Patrick Reed’s stats are also wrong. They always grade out terrible in stats but they perform quite well.

    I wouldn’t lump Patrick Reed into that category at all – he is going through swing changes and has only Top 25 in past 8 events covering 12+ weeks.

  • NoLimits0

    @BIF said...

    I wouldn’t lump Patrick Reed into that category at all – he is going through swing changes and has only Top 25 in past 8 events covering 12+ weeks.

    Gotcha agree with you there.

    I guess I brought up Reed because I was looking at the SG stats from last like 3-4 seasons as well as this season. Like you said this season there’s a legit reason he’s been struggling but over like the last 3 seasons he also has been average to below average for SG stats (vs the other 8k and even 7.5k+ golfers like Webb and Woodland) but yet he has like multiple PGA wins and a Masters in this time period, including at Bethpage Black.

    Jason Day is also a bit concerning stat wise until I took a look at last 3 season and realized he’s never good SG: T2G but always can win tournaments at any time. Like he has so many top 10s and a win at the PGAs despite having a terrible statistical profile relative to other top pros.

    Molinari wasn’t concerning since he was #2 just last year in SGs so this year stats you can throw out (especially given his results). But Jason Day is like never top 30 SG and always is top 15ish in the world.

  • NoLimits0

    Speaking of stats, EVERY single SG model loves Ben An.

    But we all know he can’t putt. You can argue putting has variance. But not with Ben An. There is no variance with An. He just sucks at putting and always sucks. But pros who use pure stats models will have An coming in around 7-10% imo.

    I think Emiliano Grillo and An fall into the same category. I’ve noticed pros love choosing them but they always like finish 40th and make no noise.

    Like if you could combine the ball striking of An + putting of Brian Gay = Potential Major Champ.

    But the ball striking of An + putting of An = you will be tilted to a 40th place finish with a lack of upside.

  • 1UPonSmileyK

    Captain America hasn’t been right since the Ryder Cup, after he blamed his poor performance on not being paired with Speith. Still can’t believe he held everyone off at the Masters. Cannot argue with his choice of cuts though, outside of a Prime is there anything tastier than a Med-Rare Ribeye.

  • timgodd375

    Are Day and Fowler expected to be very popular or just mildly popular?

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