PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: July 22-25

    Where: Twin Cities, Minnesota

    Course: TPC Twin Cities | A par 71 playing at 7468 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Michael Thompson at -19

    Last Year’s Cut: -2

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | CBS

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • BrianVT

    Might be some Hanks in SD that don’t get message.

    And yep, he killed any hope of my 6/6 and 5/6s.

  • BrianVT

    Maybe MSP is just a depressing place to be for these guys.

  • titanhawks

    5/20 4/6 best I can do for the second week in a row with Steady Steve Stricker like Phil last week and those two euro hacks Herbert and Macintyre like Hatton last week nuking my core

    At least I did manage 3/20 6/6 in the EURO so I’ll be camping out there this weekend

    Best thing is my CFB slow draft starts today :)

  • achesley711

    Not the news I wanted to wake up to with my solid 6/6 being wiped out with the Lebioda WD. Hope all is well with him

  • ifthethunder

    I had 12 of 20 6/6. But had Hank in 10 of 20.

    Some of those were killed by Ghim / Ryan Moore, so I still have some 6/6s (including my gimmick l.u.). But my 2nd best l.u. (291.5 DKFP) had Lebioda.
    ~

  • Getty33

    @BrianVT said...

    Maybe MSP is just a depressing place to be for these guys.

    5 WDs before they even started and 4 more during play including a guy who after 5 years of hating golf finally decides he can’t take it anymore. Coincidence? I think not.

  • Sportsfan100

    Just looking through the carnage. Started with a pool of 22 golfers and, after the Hank WD, I now only have 12 who made the weekend. We all sometimes have rough weeks, but what makes this one especially rough is that, out of the 10 that didn’t make it, 5 of them were at -1, 3 (DJ, Ghim, and Cink) were Even, 1 bust at +2 (Herbert), and Hank’s WD, of course.
    After the Hank WD, I now have 3 6/6 (2 in $3 and the 1 in the HM – I know, chump change) and 6 5/6.
    Anyway, I’m done whining now. Just a frustrating week overall.

    Edit: Best 6/6 is 298, and second best lineup, a 287, is now a 4/6. Ugh.

  • Getty33

    More reason to like Joel “Buckethat” Dahmen

    Geno Bonnalie
    @GenoBonnalie
    ·
    Jul 17
    The Open Championship Rd. 3 hole 11.

    Standing over a 5 footer for par-Joel backs off.
    I walk in and ask: “you good”?

    Joel: “no, I’m going to miss this putt. I just can’t decide if I should miss it right or left”

  • ifthethunder

    One could have made a 6/6 by picking all three Adams and any three of the four Camerons (five if we count Cameron “Cam” Davis), btw.
    ~

  • BrianVT

    Phil left a reply to Grayson

    https://twitter.com/PhilMickelson/status/1418758901487570949?s=19

  • BrianVT

    @Getty33 said...

    5 WDs before they even started and 4 more during play including a guy who after 5 years of hating golf finally decides he can’t take it anymore. Coincidence? I think not.

    Can’t believe Matthew Wolff hasn’t left town yet.

  • MrBreeze

    @BrianVT said...

    Phil left a reply to Grayson

    https://twitter.com/PhilMickelson/status/1418758901487570949?s=19

    Stand up guy is Phil

  • JimKronlund

    This is an excellent thread everyone who DFS’s should read.
    This forum is chalk full of these examples.
    I condensed it below for those not on Twitter
    https://twitter.com/SahilBloom/status/1418910006557265932

    Hindsight Bias
    Humans tend to believe that events of the past were more predictable than they actually were.
    We examine the past with the benefit of hindsight but fail to recognize its impact on our thinking.
    Hindsight bias can meaningfully distort our memories.

    Plan Continuation Bias
    Humans love plans.
    Even when the plan appears to be failing (or no longer an appropriate fit for a given situation), we have a tendency to want to continue.
    The dangers of a rigid “stick to the plan!” mentality are very real.

    The Gambler’s Fallacy
    Humans are naturally bad with probabilities.
    The Gambler’s Fallacy says that we have a tendency to believe that past events alter future outcomes (when they clearly have no impact).
    Ever thought you were “due for a win” in roulette. You’re falling prey.

    Curse of Knowledge
    Experts (or generally, intelligent people) tend to make the flawed assumption that others have the same background and knowledge on a topic as they do.
    They are unable to teach or lead in an effective manner for those still coming up the learning curve.

    Loss Aversion
    First identified by famed scientists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, it says the pain of losing something is more powerful than the pleasure of winning it. As such, humans will typically do more to avoid losses than they will to seek gains.

    Endowment Effect
    Related to loss aversion, the endowment effect says that once we have something, we don’t want to give it up.
    Humans will demand more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it.

    Availability Bias
    Humans evaluate situations based on the most readily available data, which tends to be what can be immediately recalled from memory.
    This is how the news cycle impacts our thinking. Its persistent negativity cements a belief that the world is a dark place.

    Survivorship Bias
    History is written by the victors.
    But concentrating on “survivors” and systematically ignoring “casualties” of any situation leads to distortions in our conclusions.
    We overestimate the odds of success because we only read books about the successes!

    The Ikea Effect
    People ascribe significantly more value to objects that they have created or assembled, irrespective of the final quality of the object.
    We infuse our own self worth into the object, thereby increasing its value in our minds.

    Anchoring
    The “anchor” is a reference point of information (usually the first piece of information received on a topic).
    All subsequent thinking or decisions are silently “anchored” to this point.
    Anchoring has been proven by scientists (and used car salesmen) time and again.

    Dunning-Kruger Effect
    People with a low ability at a task are prone to overestimate their ability at that task.
    Humans are notoriously incapable of objective evaluation of their competency levels.
    Remember: Everyone is a genius in a bull market.

    The Ben Franklin Effect
    “He that has once done you a kindness will be more ready to do you another, than he whom you yourself have obliged.”
    Doing a favor makes you more likely to do another for that person than them doing a favor for you.
    We reinforce our self-perceptions.

    Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon
    Ever notice that something you just learned seems to pop up everywhere around you?
    The Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon says that increased awareness of something creates the illusion that it is appearing more often.
    Like seeing 11:11 on your iPhone clock…

    Confirmation Bias
    Humans have a tendency to see and interpret information in a manner that supports previously held beliefs.
    New data positive? This idea is a slam dunk!
    New data negative? Must have been an error in the experiment.
    Very common and very dangerous.

    Backfire Effect
    The “backfire effect” is the tendency for humans to use evidence in direct conflict with their thesis to further strengthen their previously held beliefs.
    It is a more dangerous version of confirmation bias (also less common and scientifically contested).

    Confirmation Bias
    Humans have a tendency to see and interpret information in a manner that supports previously held beliefs.
    New data positive? This idea is a slam dunk!
    New data negative? Must have been an error in the experiment.
    Very common and very dangerous.

    Backfire Effect
    The “backfire effect” is the tendency for humans to use evidence in direct conflict with their thesis to further strengthen their previously held beliefs.
    It is a more dangerous version of confirmation bias (also less common and scientifically contested).

    @SahilBloom
    Fundamental Attribution Error
    Humans tend to:
    (1) Attribute the actions of others to their character (and not to their situation or context).
    (2) Attribute our actions to situation and context (and not to our character).
    We cut ourselves a break but hold others accountable.

    Bandwagon Effect
    Humans are a social species – this allowed us to thrive.
    But it also has a downside…
    It creates a strong tendency to speak, act, or believe things simply because a lot of other people do.
    Bandwagon effect is similar to “groupthink” and is very dangerous.

    Egocentric Bias
    The human tendency is to have a higher view of one’s self than is objectively warranted.
    In group activities, we tend to overestimate (in comparison to objective measure) the degree and value of our own contributions relative to others.

    Naïve Realism
    Humans think very highly of themselves (see egocentric bias!).
    We tend to believe that we see the world with perfect objectivity (cognitive biases be damned!).
    We also assume that people who disagree with us must be ignorant, uninformed, or biased.

    ————————————————
    Cognitive biases have a profound impact on our thinking and decision-making every single day.
    The first step to fighting back? Awareness. I hope this post helped with that!

  • darickc

    Only made one lineup and it’s not bad

    Vegas -9
    Tringale -7
    K. Lee -6
    Finau -3
    Kizzire -3
    Mitchell -3

  • ifthethunder

    Loss Aversion
    First identified by famed scientists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, it says the pain of losing something is more powerful than the pleasure of winning it. As such, humans will typically do more to avoid losses than they will to seek gains.
    —————————

    Loss aversion is why I rarely put Patrick Reed into more than one or two lineups.

    Backfire Effect
    The “backfire effect” is the tendency for humans to use evidence in direct conflict with their thesis to further strengthen their previously held beliefs.
    It is a more dangerous version of confirmation bias (also less common and scientifically contested).
    ——————————————-

    I have little backfire evidence that contradicts my loss aversion. Just backfires. Of course Phatrick can prove me wrong by winning this thing. In which case I will attribute the success of those lineups to my own genius.
    ~

  • Sportsfan100

    @JimKronlund said...

    This is an excellent thread everyone who DFS’s should read.
    This forum is chalk full of these examples.
    I condensed it below for those not on Twitter
    https://twitter.com/SahilBloom/status/1418910006557265932

    Hindsight Bias
    Humans tend to believe that events of the past were more predictable than they actually were.
    We examine the past with the benefit of hindsight but fail to recognize its impact on our thinking.
    Hindsight bias can meaningfully distort our memories.

    Plan Continuation Bias
    Humans love plans.
    Even when the plan appears to be failing (or no longer an appropriate fit for a given situation), we have a tendency to want to continue.
    The dangers of a rigid “stick to the plan!” mentality are very real.

    The Gambler’s Fallacy
    Humans are naturally bad with probabilities.
    The Gambler’s Fallacy says that we have a tendency to believe that past events alter future outcomes (when they clearly have no impact).
    Ever thought you were “due for a win” in roulette. You’re falling prey.

    Curse of Knowledge
    Experts (or generally, intelligent people) tend to make the flawed assumption that others have the same background and knowledge on a topic as they do.
    They are unable to teach or lead in an effective manner for those still coming up the learning curve.

    Loss Aversion
    First identified by famed scientists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, it says the pain of losing something is more powerful than the pleasure of winning it. As such, humans will typically do more to avoid losses than they will to seek gains.

    Endowment Effect
    Related to loss aversion, the endowment effect says that once we have something, we don’t want to give it up.
    Humans will demand more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it.

    Availability Bias
    Humans evaluate situations based on the most readily available data, which tends to be what can be immediately recalled from memory.
    This is how the news cycle impacts our thinking. Its persistent negativity cements a belief that the world is a dark place.

    Survivorship Bias
    History is written by the victors.
    But concentrating on “survivors” and systematically ignoring “casualties” of any situation leads to distortions in our conclusions.
    We overestimate the odds of success because we only read books about the successes!

    The Ikea Effect
    People ascribe significantly more value to objects that they have created or assembled, irrespective of the final quality of the object.
    We infuse our own self worth into the object, thereby increasing its value in our minds.

    Anchoring
    The “anchor” is a reference point of information (usually the first piece of information received on a topic).
    All subsequent thinking or decisions are silently “anchored” to this point.
    Anchoring has been proven by scientists (and used car salesmen) time and again.

    Dunning-Kruger Effect
    People with a low ability at a task are prone to overestimate their ability at that task.
    Humans are notoriously incapable of objective evaluation of their competency levels.
    Remember: Everyone is a genius in a bull market.

    The Ben Franklin Effect
    “He that has once done you a kindness will be more ready to do you another, than he whom you yourself have obliged.”
    Doing a favor makes you more likely to do another for that person than them doing a favor for you.
    We reinforce our self-perceptions.

    Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon
    Ever notice that something you just learned seems to pop up everywhere around you?
    The Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon says that increased awareness of something creates the illusion that it is appearing more often.
    Like seeing 11:11 on your iPhone clock…

    Confirmation Bias
    Humans have a tendency to see and interpret information in a manner that supports previously held beliefs.
    New data positive? This idea is a slam dunk!
    New data negative? Must have been an error in the experiment.
    Very common and very dangerous.

    Backfire Effect
    The “backfire effect” is the tendency for humans to use evidence in direct conflict with their thesis to further strengthen their previously held beliefs.
    It is a more dangerous version of confirmation bias (also less common and scientifically contested).

    Confirmation Bias
    Humans have a tendency to see and interpret information in a manner that supports previously held beliefs.
    New data positive? This idea is a slam dunk!
    New data negative? Must have been an error in the experiment.
    Very common and very dangerous.

    Backfire Effect
    The “backfire effect” is the tendency for humans to use evidence in direct conflict with their thesis to further strengthen their previously held beliefs.
    It is a more dangerous version of confirmation bias (also less common and scientifically contested).

    @SahilBloom
    Fundamental Attribution Error
    Humans tend to:
    (1) Attribute the actions of others to their character (and not to their situation or context).
    (2) Attribute our actions to situation and context (and not to our character).
    We cut ourselves a break but hold others accountable.

    Bandwagon Effect
    Humans are a social species – this allowed us to thrive.
    But it also has a downside…
    It creates a strong tendency to speak, act, or believe things simply because a lot of other people do.
    Bandwagon effect is similar to “groupthink” and is very dangerous.

    Egocentric Bias
    The human tendency is to have a higher view of one’s self than is objectively warranted.
    In group activities, we tend to overestimate (in comparison to objective measure) the degree and value of our own contributions relative to others.

    Naïve Realism
    Humans think very highly of themselves (see egocentric bias!).
    We tend to believe that we see the world with perfect objectivity (cognitive biases be damned!).
    We also assume that people who disagree with us must be ignorant, uninformed, or biased.

    ————————————————
    Cognitive biases have a profound impact on our thinking and decision-making every single day.
    The first step to fighting back? Awareness. I hope this post helped with that!

    Great stuff, Jim! Many applications to life in general and beyond dfs. Thanks for sharing.

  • JimKronlund

    @Sportsfan100 said...

    Great stuff, Jim! Many applications to life in general and beyond dfs. Thanks for sharing.

    My pleasure, even when aware we all still seem to fall in to some of these trappings. Some more than others.

  • Sportsfan100

    @JimKronlund said...

    My pleasure, even when aware we all still seem to fall in to some of these trappings. Some more than others.

    Absolutely. I know that I’m guilty of it!

  • timusbr

    @JimKronlund said...

    Cognitive biases have a profound impact

    a good read and an assumption that all these are true.

    what is true for 1 is not true for all.

    but, I hazard the opinion – what is wrong with bias. you could spin that any decision made in life has some bias to it. When we pick our DFS team, you certainly have made some decisions on bias.

    Embrace and understand your bias IMHO

  • Baysman

    Cam Davis 3 putts from 14 feet, my god

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 395

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    Oh hi der Keith Mitchell

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 395

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    Can’t birdie them all if you don’t birdie the first four…

  • RudyPujols

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    Oh hi der Keith Mitchell

    Now 4 out of the chute. I’m 100% on Weekend, which is 0.5-2.5% in all contests other than the JimK where he is fairly popular.

  • Mitchell

    Gonna win me some money in sd hopefully😎

  • timusbr

    Hey Hey, Fatrick starts out with a birdie. I believe the first time he started under par this week. could be a sign. I need it to be a sign. I believe if Reed and Wolff could go low my fortunes will increase much.

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