So I decided to test RotoGrinders out. Not to stir up a mess, but to just get an idea of how accurate RG daily projections are.
Here are the results….
2 contests entered per day for 28 days straight: All day contests and night contests. For each I will explain good or bad for either area.
87% of the RG Daily NBA player projections performed BETTER than projected. In MOST cases….MUCH higher.
This is good AND very bad. Even if player projections performed better for a player that costs $7,300 projected to score 50 points…..it hurts the projected player who will not be rostered that is $3900 and scores 40 fantasy points. This happens NIGHTLY by quite a few players across the games available. Thus making the projection being conservative, but failing to pick up on those key players who will have a marquee game who in the norm play very little, a bit disturbing.
Who would know that quite a few would have such a random performance? Look at the other players lineups. For some reason……they knew to play them. Thus making those outcomes off the bench…..not so random. However, RotoGrinders player projections did not. Thus bringing the BETTER than projection accuracy down to around 48% for this one category.
11% of the daily RG Daily NBA player projections performed WORSE or NOT EVEN CLOSE TO the projected
This is self explanatory. Taking consideration for ONLY players who didn’t fall ill during a game or injury. ONLY players who played an entire game. Most of these players were however marquee players who just did not hit their usual high points totals. Thus bringing the above total down to a rounded percentage of 41% Correct daily player predictions.
2% of the daily RG Daily NBA player projections performed WITHIN +/- 1 POINT of what was projected
THESE are what I call accurate. This 2% is what I call RG good for. 2% of my lineup of 8 guys. 2% of the points.
Being conservative leaves open for massive points missed for players others play through whatever platform they use. Not measuring for about 30 factors outside of what RG lists often results in top caliber players under performing as well. Leaving the 2% is probably at the ratio and large sample size given the number of entries……more than likely luck.
This was not meant to offend anyone. I will still come here. I love the topics and discussion. Most things I can learn from. This is my first post ever.
That being said and adding a percentage in for a kind gesture……
RotoGrinders Daily NBA Projections sit at about 3% accurate. Not very good. The NFL is the most accurate RG daily player projections out there I have tested. I will post on that later. Very impressed. NBA…..not so much.
How do I win so much personally?
Home vs away and how that team plays at either. Game logs and if they CONSTANTLY have a median scoring average. Hot streaks. Injuries increasing their playing time. Know that minutes = points. Opposing player who will defend against them. Floor and Ceiling. (Highest points scored is a ceiling and MOST IMPORTANT is the floor which is the lowest Fantasy points they have scored all season. The higher the floor…..the more points you are more or less guaranteed they will at least score.) And so on and so on.
Summation. Do you own legwork and pick your own players based upon research…….the results will amaze you,
Advice of the day: Sharks love head 2 heads…..especially the $1. They will play 500+ on any given day. Don’t think because it is only $1 you will face off with an average Joe….that’s what they want you to think. Play 50/50s…..much safer and they can only enter 1 time with their lineup….not 50 times pushing you out of the money!