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  • Orangeflow

    So I decided to test RotoGrinders out. Not to stir up a mess, but to just get an idea of how accurate RG daily projections are.

    Here are the results….

    2 contests entered per day for 28 days straight: All day contests and night contests. For each I will explain good or bad for either area.

    87% of the RG Daily NBA player projections performed BETTER than projected. In MOST cases….MUCH higher.

    This is good AND very bad. Even if player projections performed better for a player that costs $7,300 projected to score 50 points…..it hurts the projected player who will not be rostered that is $3900 and scores 40 fantasy points. This happens NIGHTLY by quite a few players across the games available. Thus making the projection being conservative, but failing to pick up on those key players who will have a marquee game who in the norm play very little, a bit disturbing.

    Who would know that quite a few would have such a random performance? Look at the other players lineups. For some reason……they knew to play them. Thus making those outcomes off the bench…..not so random. However, RotoGrinders player projections did not. Thus bringing the BETTER than projection accuracy down to around 48% for this one category.

    Next is…..

    11% of the daily RG Daily NBA player projections performed WORSE or NOT EVEN CLOSE TO the projected

    This is self explanatory. Taking consideration for ONLY players who didn’t fall ill during a game or injury. ONLY players who played an entire game. Most of these players were however marquee players who just did not hit their usual high points totals. Thus bringing the above total down to a rounded percentage of 41% Correct daily player predictions.

    Next is…..

    2% of the daily RG Daily NBA player projections performed WITHIN +/- 1 POINT of what was projected

    THESE are what I call accurate. This 2% is what I call RG good for. 2% of my lineup of 8 guys. 2% of the points.

    Being conservative leaves open for massive points missed for players others play through whatever platform they use. Not measuring for about 30 factors outside of what RG lists often results in top caliber players under performing as well. Leaving the 2% is probably at the ratio and large sample size given the number of entries……more than likely luck.

    —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

    This was not meant to offend anyone. I will still come here. I love the topics and discussion. Most things I can learn from. This is my first post ever.

    That being said and adding a percentage in for a kind gesture……

    RotoGrinders Daily NBA Projections sit at about 3% accurate. Not very good. The NFL is the most accurate RG daily player projections out there I have tested. I will post on that later. Very impressed. NBA…..not so much.

    How do I win so much personally?

    Home vs away and how that team plays at either. Game logs and if they CONSTANTLY have a median scoring average. Hot streaks. Injuries increasing their playing time. Know that minutes = points. Opposing player who will defend against them. Floor and Ceiling. (Highest points scored is a ceiling and MOST IMPORTANT is the floor which is the lowest Fantasy points they have scored all season. The higher the floor…..the more points you are more or less guaranteed they will at least score.) And so on and so on.

    Summation. Do you own legwork and pick your own players based upon research…….the results will amaze you,

    Advice of the day: Sharks love head 2 heads…..especially the $1. They will play 500+ on any given day. Don’t think because it is only $1 you will face off with an average Joe….that’s what they want you to think. Play 50/50s…..much safer and they can only enter 1 time with their lineup….not 50 times pushing you out of the money!

  • ertlt

    I also have been frustrated with NBA as well. I love Rotogrinders, I’m a Premium subscriber and will continue to use it. However, I’ve been very frustrated with the NBA projections. I have found Boggslite’s GPP hockey suggestions to be very good.

    I understand that we must research and process information on our own and make our own decisions. I get that and I’m fine with it. I do like that Rotogrinders projections will do much of the research in terms of players that will be out and who gains a bump. I’ve been using the Core suggestions and the Cash suggestions and can’t even cash in a 50/50 or double up.

    Has this NBA season been overly tough or different from other years? Or are the projections just off?

    Once again, not trying to stir up trouble. Just interested in getting some perspective and information to make my NBA game better.

  • NoLimits0

    @Orangeflow said...

    So I decided to test RotoGrinders out. Not to stir up a mess, but to just get an idea of how accurate RG daily projections are.

    Here are the results….

    2 contests entered per day for 28 days straight: All day contests and night contests. For each I will explain good or bad for either area.

    87% of the RG Daily NBA player projections performed BETTER than projected. In MOST cases….MUCH higher.

    This is good AND very bad. Even if player projections performed better for a player that costs $7,300 projected to score 50 points…..it hurts the projected player who will not be rostered that is $3900 and scores 40 fantasy points. This happens NIGHTLY by quite a few players across the games available. Thus making the projection being conservative, but failing to pick up on those key players who will have a marquee game who in the norm play very little, a bit disturbing.

    Who would know that quite a few would have such a random performance? Look at the other players lineups. For some reason……they knew to play them. Thus making those outcomes off the bench…..not so random. However, RotoGrinders player projections did not. Thus bringing the BETTER than projection accuracy down to around 48% for this one category.

    Next is…..

    11% of the daily RG Daily NBA player projections performed WORSE or NOT EVEN CLOSE TO the projected

    This is self explanatory. Taking consideration for ONLY players who didn’t fall ill during a game or injury. ONLY players who played an entire game. Most of these players were however marquee players who just did not hit their usual high points totals. Thus bringing the above total down to a rounded percentage of 41% Correct daily player predictions.

    Next is…..

    2% of the daily RG Daily NBA player projections performed WITHIN +/- 1 POINT of what was projected

    THESE are what I call accurate. This 2% is what I call RG good for. 2% of my lineup of 8 guys. 2% of the points.

    Being conservative leaves open for massive points missed for players others play through whatever platform they use. Not measuring for about 30 factors outside of what RG lists often results in top caliber players under performing as well. Leaving the 2% is probably at the ratio and large sample size given the number of entries……more than likely luck.

    —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

    This was not meant to offend anyone. I will still come here. I love the topics and discussion. Most things I can learn from. This is my first post ever.

    That being said and adding a percentage in for a kind gesture……

    RotoGrinders Daily NBA Projections sit at about 3% accurate. Not very good. The NFL is the most accurate RG daily player projections out there I have tested. I will post on that later. Very impressed. NBA…..not so much.

    How do I win so much personally?

    Home vs away and how that team plays at either. Game logs and if they CONSTANTLY have a median scoring average. Hot streaks. Injuries increasing their playing time. Know that minutes = points. Opposing player who will defend against them. Floor and Ceiling. (Highest points scored is a ceiling and MOST IMPORTANT is the floor which is the lowest Fantasy points they have scored all season. The higher the floor…..the more points you are more or less guaranteed they will at least score.) And so on and so on.

    Summation. Do you own legwork and pick your own players based upon research…….the results will amaze you,

    Advice of the day: Sharks love head 2 heads…..especially the $1. They will play 500+ on any given day. Don’t think because it is only $1 you will face off with an average Joe….that’s what they want you to think. Play 50/50s…..much safer and they can only enter 1 time with their lineup….not 50 times pushing you out of the money!

    You must be joking right? How can you say something is accurate when the actual is within +/- 1 point of the projected? An NBA game is 48 mins long. So much randomness. NO PROJECTION system in the world can do more than 5% of 1 point from the prediction. The fact RG can do 2% is actually pretty good.

    When you say NFL is more accurate of course it is. If you use the same 1 point criteria, NFL players typically only get around 0-20 FPs (occasionally sometimes more for the stars) so you have a way better shot to be 1 point close.

    NBA players get like 0-70 FPs (occasionally sometimes more for the stats). It’s a way bigger range. Of course it will do worse than NFL.

    I can guarantee you no model in the world can get more than 5% of your criteria. There are so many variables in a game.

  • NoLimits0

    You need to do like within 5 or 8 points of the projected. 1 point is way too small for how many variables a game has. Like I said no model in the world can do better than 5% of 1 point.

  • NoLimits0

    Let me propose this. Is this a good or bad prediction? You tell me.

    I predict Harden gets 35 points, 8 assists, 6 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1 block.

    In reality, he gets 35 points, 9 assists, 6 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1 block.

    Did I make a bad prediction? According to your research I (or rotogrinders or whoever you are saying did the projections) did make a bad prediction. After all an assist is 1.5 FP greater than your 1 FP criteria.

  • LesJohns

    It’s great you put these projections to the test, but I’m not sure I understand your criteria.

    You entered two contests a day? So is that to say out of the hundreds of players available most days, you tracked 16 each day? And you did this for 28 days, so you have a sample size of 446? If so, that’s honestly a significant sample, though you don’t have to actually play a player to see how many fps he scores at the end of the day. There are several methods you could use to track literally everyone on the slate every single day.

    I also agree with the initial comments above that only considering it accurate if it’s within a point is way too stringent.

    Generally speaking, I’m looking at the projections as just one of many tools I use every day to build lineups. If it was the only tool I used, I’m pretty sure I’d be a losing player. That doesn’t however, mean it’s a bad tool.

  • superstars92

    I can provide some context here. So generally, you NEVER EVER want to predict a player with exactly one point value. So never do something like I have

    James Harden = 55.6 FP tonight.

    What you should do is I have James Harden with a prediction of 55.6 FP, with maybe a 1 SD (standard deviation) confidence interval of 5 FPs, so anywhere from [50.6, 60.6] FPs is acceptable. I generally like to take 1 standard deviation (if you know the 68-95-99.7 rule, it’ll help – you can google this too long to explain), but feel free to take whatever error range you want. Also, technically the distribution does not need to be normal, but if you want to keep it simple, you should use a normal distribution. Hope that helps.

    As long as he is within 1 SD (or you can define how many SDs you want), I think it’s a good prediction. Otherwise, I think it’s a bad prediction.

    I hope this clears up some confusion.

    The other thing you can always do is wing it and choose LeBron whenever you think he’s mad and motivated =).

  • AlexSonty

    • 442

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Blogger of the Month

    Why not an SD of 0.5x? Seems fair.

    Also, not surprising that so many would overperform projections. RG’s raw projection number is fairly conservative.

  • bucherpsu08

    They were solid last night. I run the HQ optimizer quite a bit mostly out of curiosity. I usually don’t end up using what it spits out but yesterday I plugged in Favors and Lou Williams and ran it. I actually really liked the lineup it put together. There wasn’t much late news so I never tinkered with this lineup throughout the day. The end result last night was 344.5 on DK. Problem was that about 50+ of us had this same lineup.

  • bigez952

    A 2 point range for the NBA is way too tight to be considered accurate due to how high scoring it is compared to other sports. I would be surprised if any projection model in the world could come anywhere close to hitting 10+% with that tight of a criteria.

  • ertlt

    Yes, last night was good. I must give props when they are due. I generated 80 lineups and used Lou Williams and Favors also. I returned 4X my investment. I was very happy. Hopefully it continues.

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