INDUSTRY FORUM

Comments

  • DCoop328

    ESPN DFS analyst Cynthia Frelund claims to have a 94% win rate at DraftKings and a 90% win rate on Fanduel. Does this seem at all possible for even the best player possible in just h2hs?

    My only possible theories are that she only plays a friend h2h who picks his team blindfolded or she is a time traveler?

    Thoughts?

  • george8kl

    would be a full time job – click on user names @ Fanduel H2H to find rookies who just joined recently, and are posting H2H games – then, try to matchup their action before all the ‘sharps’ jump on it – the rookie H2H players won’t last long, as they’ll tap out mucho quicko and either give up or move to $1 50/50 games where they belong
    even the free games are full of excellent players testing out their methodology and systems – I like to go to school on these high scoring freebie lineups from experienced players (check their profiles for baseball winners)

  • CrazyGabey

    @einars said...

    as if thats different than your face on grinders live touting carlos martinez

    Watch him strut.

  • CrazyGabey

    @Cal said...

    I read her response and still don’t know what she means by “in the money.” Looking forward to getting clarity on this in the interview with Dan. If she means 50/50 victories or tournament cashing then tiny sample size is the only explanation, not game selection and stakes.

    ESPN definitely needs to be careful with how they present information like this. DFS is most likely a completely new thing for the SportsCenter crew so we can cut them some slack out of the gates. The real headline here is that there is now a DFS personality on SportsCenter. That’s awesome.

    Excellent post Cal, ESPN is the problem here, not Cynthia. From everything I’ve seen in regards to her she seems friendly, smart, and genuine. I can’t wait for her interview with DB.

    As I mentioned in my earlier post, I give ESPN exactly 0% benefit of the doubt here. I know for a FACT that they had many chances to get this right, and instead have chosen to treat our industry with reckless disregard. In my opinion everyone should be upset by this, as change for the sake of change is rarely a good thing.

    Putting someone on-air just to put someone on-air is overall harmful IMO if the message is deceptive.

  • CrazyGabey

    @bearjew289 said...

    Posted 10 minutes ago

    http://espn.go.com/blog/fantasy-baseball/insider/post?id=2416

    Since value is absolutely a function of fantasy points per cap charge, the right sorts of predictive models will give you the edge in daily fantasy. I have written algorithms that factor in up to eight years of MLB data, and analyzed seven different ways to create one-day performance projections.

    Every day the models “get smarter” as they include the most up-to-date stats. My secret sauce is the risk analysis that weighs upside and downside and creates a volatility index, this way you can get a full picture of what a player (and/or your full roster of players) could reasonably be expected to produce. There will always be systemic risk, but having a solid process for selecting value will help you reduce the unsystemic errors — and increase your odds of winning! Good luck and remember: Process is more important than luck, especially in the long run!

    Note: This analysis and advice is all about games that start after 7:05 p.m. ET, all positional and roster information is not necessarily the same for full-day or late games. Got a question? Hit me up on Twitter @cfrelund, I’m happy to help!

    Cash Plays

    Here, my algorithms reveal players with the least risky projected point-returns, optimized for price. For example, 2 FPPs/$1,000 on DraftKings. In other words, players who are most likely to help you win a cash DFS game.

    Tyson Ross, P, San Diego Padres — $9,000 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel (vs. CHC): I can actually make a case for cash or GPP play for Ross tonight. He will likely be a very popular choice in both formats, primarily due to lack of better options. The Cubs lead MLB in strikeouts, and are second if you only consider right-handed pitchers. Right-handed pitcher Ross has the potential for upside in this metric, as well as good chances of getting the win.

    Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies — $4,500 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel (vs. PHI): This is a great matchup against Phillies righty Severino Gonzalez, in an obviously great park, especially given Tulo’s capabilities. Last night, he returned 13 DraftKings/5.5 FanDuel points, and profiles even better tonight. Further, this is a great positional cash option. Note that if this game is canceled due to weather, Jhonny Peralta ($4,000 DraftKings/$3,200 FanDuel) is a great option

    Tournament Plays

    My algorithms also reveal players to use in tournament games. These are players with the greatest potential for upside based on several relevant statistics. The cool part here is that the algorithm learns and adapts. Remember, great upside potential never comes without the downside risk!

    In short-slate nights, limited options mean that you need to be even more aware of who your competitors are most likely to roster. Therefore, analyzing positional output allows you to better understand your differentiated risk.

    Carlos Martinez, P, St. Louis Cardinals $7,200 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel (at NYM): This one is about upside, and beware that the risk is considerable. The win is not guaranteed, and his opposing pitcher, Bartolo Colon, actually rates well in terms of upside here, too. Martinez is averaging more than one strikeout per inning, and he has the right profile versus the Mets offense at this discounted price.

    Buster Posey, C/1B, San Francisco Giants $4,200 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel (vs. LAD): If he’s batting cleanup this is a great tournament play, and therefore he is likely to be widely owned. This is primarily because of the home matchup against the Dodgers’ Brett Anderson. Anderson is a southpaw, and you can look up any stat you want on Posey versus lefties — they’re all great indicators for upside.

    She’s going to watch him strut too!

    swoons

  • 8MileAllstars

    Wow, took an “algorithm that factors in up to eight years of MLB data” to deduce that Troy Tulowitzki and Buster Posey might be good plays at home. Never would have guessed a computer would like Tyson Ross at home. Shocking.

  • george8kl

    agree with the concept of chalky picks by public handicappers ( daily newspapers, etc.) – I’ve seen this for 40 years as a horseplayer – the public wants to buy a newspaper for a buck or watch a free telecast and get a quick winner, regardless of price – if the handicapper is picking 35% winners, one or more a day, everyone’s happy – the public, the editors and the boss – if the handicapper gave out really good info with a positive ROI but a 17% win rate, the public would lose patience, the editors and boss would be unhappy, and the handicapper would be out of a job

  • MikeMineo

    @george8kl said...

    would be a full time job – click on user names @ Fanduel H2H to find rookies who just joined recently, and are posting H2H games – then, try to matchup their action before all the ‘sharps’ jump on it – the rookie H2H players won’t last long, as they’ll tap out mucho quicko and either give up or move to $1 50/50 games where they belong

    the thing is though, rookies RARELY post h2h games, or even know how to. I’ve seen this strategy posted here before, but any time I’ve even attempted to scour the list or an hour or so it’s extremely difficult to find anyone with under 1000 wins, mostly because posting h2h’s is typical of experienced players, not rookies who are mostly joining with visions of winning a big GPP.

  • Buffalo66

    Thread delivering so far on many levels.

    I’ll leave this to the internet sleuths: the @cfrelund twitter banner shows a 1st place finish in the DK $4k windmill on 4/19/15, so anyone who played in that contest could figure out her username. I’d be very surprised if that was a hijacked image from another DFSer.

  • Cameron

    RG Co-Founder

    • 2014 FanDuel NFL Survivor Champion

    • 2016 RG Season Long Champion: NFL

    @CrazyGabey said...

    She’s going to watch him strut too!

    swoons

    Posey and Martinez. Win rate might’ve gone up tonight…

  • MuchaTheKing

    @bk1248 said...

    Im not good at stats and I dont know her winrate but Ive played her about 100 times overall on each site, and shes beaten me every time except 6 on DK, FD was about 10 wins for me out of 100.

    What’s her fanduel and draftkings username?

  • Syko

    @MuchaTheKing said...

    What’s her fanduel and draftkings username?

    Condia

  • MuchaTheKing

    @Syko said...

    Condia

    LOL GOOD ONE GOT ME THERE

  • dartjeff

    @Buffalo66 said...

    I’ll leave this to the internet sleuths: the @cfrelund twitter banner shows a 1st place finish in the DK $4k windmill on 4/19/15, so anyone who played in that contest could figure out her username. I’d be very surprised if that was a hijacked image from another DFSer.

    Great idea. Come on! Some one must have the tournament results on this one!

  • ebsteelers

    @CrazyGabey said...

    Excellent post Cal, ESPN is the problem here, not Cynthia. From everything I’ve seen in regards to her she seems friendly, smart, and genuine. I can’t wait for her interview with DB.

    As I mentioned in my earlier post, I give ESPN exactly 0% benefit of the doubt here. I know for a FACT that they had many chances to get this right, and instead have chosen to treat our industry with reckless disregard. In my opinion everyone should be upset by this, as change for the sake of change is rarely a good thing.

    Putting someone on-air just to put someone on-air is overall harmful IMO if the message is deceptive.

    but dont you think some of the stuff the sites do as far as joe blow has won “X amount money on our site” when really a person watching the commerical wont know that joey bag of donuts grossed 10 k but in reality could of netted/ only profited 50 dollars”

    or when sites send you an email you won 100 bucks, but in reality you lost 200 cause you had 300 dollars worth of action in your action.

    once you start playing you see they use the highest dollar possible to sound good for the commercials

    dont you think both of those are deceptive, and mislead new players? so it doesnt surprise me espn who is partnered with dk i think would use the best numbers possible to just try and sway sammy sunshine to fire up a dfs account

    (note: im not saying sites are wrong for giving the best looking numbers possible, I understand it is a business)

  • bmlenox

    Last night her graphic no longer talked about win percentage, but it instead touted a “300% ROI”.

  • papa123

    Used a lot of big words to mask IMO. Espn knows there casual viewer doesn’t know anything she’s talking about.

  • banders234

    Sustained success is the only thing you should respect in DFS. Just because a new player picks up a win in some small tournament, you should respect their opinion? Come on… she’s just a pretty face selling a product until she wins a real tournament.

  • AQUAFTM45

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/6542859?uc=85705650
    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/6522049?uc=85377359

    CONDIA is actually a good target in MLB..

  • theoddsmaker

    How to we not know her username yet?

    Too bad she isn’t on Aces since they do track Win% https://fantasyaces.com/profile/the_oddsmaker/

    I’m pretty sure that graphic on her was defining win rate here as % of slates where she got at least 1 win. If that’s the case a lot of us are at 100%

  • Cal

    RG CoFounder & Admin

    • 255

      RG Overall Ranking

    • $1M Prize Winner

    • x4

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    Hey guys, locking this one down.

    This thread has made me cringe numerous times. Lots of posts have been deleted, but there’s too much senseless negativity, attacking, and accusation.

    Dan will have an interview posted with Cynthia soon. No doubt the win rate will be discussed there.

    I want to reiterate that I think Cynthia and her SportsCenter presence are huge for educating the broader market on DFS. This segment shows a serious ESPN DFS commitment. It also makes me think we’ll see even more exposure as ESPN learns how to best provide DFS content.

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