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  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    I hope this posts so that it is readable. If not I will put this on google docs.

    I have created a modified Defense vs. Position Rankings. I used this method last year and found it very helpful in eliminating some noise from the traditional DVP rankings.

    The #s on the chart below are the average points that the team listed gives up on average above or below their opponent’s average for each position.

    For example: KC vs WR has a score of 11.6. Their opponents are averaging 33.4 pts at the wr position through week 5. KC on average is allowing 45.0 pts per week to wide receivers. 45.0-33.4 = 11.6.

    You could take this further by taking each team’s average point per position and creating a projection by adding or subtracting the values here. I went as far as developing player projections based on these scores last year along with usage, but I feel that became a bit of a slave to those #s so I don’t plan on going that far this year. Although it was helpful in finding outliers – but simply looking at usage of players in the best matchups gives you the same thing.

    I could do the same thing to adjust the offensive scores based on the strength of the defenses to normalize the stats of teams that may have faced a series of bad defenses early in the season.

    I hope this is helpful to the other Grinders.

    Team OPP D vs. Q.B. D Vs. R.B. D Vs. W.R. D vs. T.E.
    KC MIN 5.1 0.7 11.6 -2.4
    NYG PHI 3.3 -0.8 2.4 6.4
    NO ATL 2.6 -0.3 0.0 6.5
    PHI NYG 2.6 -11.6 9.2 0.1
    SF BAL 2.4 2.9 2.6 3.5
    BAL SF 2.2 -2.6 7.1 -2.7
    DET CHI 1.7 2.6 2.8 2.2
    PIT ARI 1.5 -4.5 0.0 4.7
    HOU JAC 1.2 1.9 0.5 -0.9
    OAK BYE 1.1 -0.3 -0.4 6.5
    CLE DEN 1.0 5.7 -2.7 0.7
    MIA TEN 0.8 2.0 0.9 1.5
    TB BYE 0.7 2.0 3.5 -4.1
    IND NE 0.6 1.1 3.4 -0.1
    ARI PIT -0.1 -0.3 3.7 -3.5
    CIN BUF -0.2 0.3 2.3 -3.2
    GB SD -0.2 0.9 -0.6 -2.4
    ATL NO -0.4 7.1 -2.2 -0.3
    BUF CIN -0.4 -2.2 2.9 -2.8
    NE IND -0.7 -2.5 1.2 1.3
    WAS NYJ -0.8 -6.6 -1.2 1.1
    JAC HOU -0.8 9.4 -3.5 -0.8
    MIN KC -0.9 2.8 -0.5 -0.9
    CHI DET -1.1 -4.0 -1.2 -2.1
    TEN MIA -1.2 -5.2 -3.5 -0.4
    SD GB -1.4 7.1 -9.0 0.0
    DAL BYE -2.2 0.7 -4.6 -4.0
    SEA CAR -2.9 -5.8 -7.3 3.6
    STL BYE -3.3 0.9 -4.1 -1.0
    NYJ WAS -3.9 -4.3 -5.2 -4.6
    CAR SEA -4.1 2.3 -4.4 -1.8
    DEN CLE -4.3 -0.3 -6.3 -1.1
  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    Not really happy with the format. But, you can easily grab and put into Excel to sort. If anyone knows how to do the formatting better, send me a message.

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    deleted…trying to tweak the format.

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    Here is a link to the google sheet.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1in3D2m71XsUlILaLqgmCouAG-sx0GwZWLg92ZGDSKX0/edit?usp=sharing

  • YoAlb

    thanks for this! i saw you mention this in another thread last night and i was going to ask you how to do it. i’ve been trying to figure it out myself all day! lol

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    No problem.

    Now that I have the data, I may do the flip side to see how each team’s offense positions are scoring relative to the opposing defensive averages.

    I will probably start running on a rolling 3 or 4 week average as well. When you get to week 8, I don’t know that week 1 is particularly relevant.

  • YoAlb

    yea i agree, i was thinking about the reverse as well. it would be helpful.

    btw, where are you getting the data for this?

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    fftoday.com. Under the weekly stats. I pull all the weekly stats and calculate the points and pivot by team and week. I then cross reference that against the opponent.

  • RockyTop55

    Just so I know I’m reading this correctly. I should play MIN Wr’s against KC defense because they on average score 11.6 more points than the defense allows on average?

  • Irishalbert37

    This is all interesting data. I would be interested in hearing where you got this data from as well I have spent the last few weeks trying to create something similar but discouraged as its such a large data set but having the fantasy points would make it a lot easier.

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    RockyTop, I think you are reading it correctly. KC allows 11.6 more points to WRs than the opposing team’s average output. I don’t know that I would target MIN receivers particularly but the situation opens up the possibility that you could find value there.

    Irishalbert – I got the data from fftoday weekly player stats and calculated the fantasy points from those stats. I pull in the stats weekly and just create a pivot by team and week and cross reference that against the schedule to get the points allowed data.

  • YoAlb

    how do you change the matchups every week?

    also, i believe they give non ppr scoring stat. How would you make one of these for draft kings?

  • kdriskell311

    This is interesting and if you’re #s are correct, I like my pick of Bradford/Matthews this week.

    Edit I reread what you posted…it makes sense now. Thanks for this!

  • YoAlb

    Team OPP QB RB WR TE
    ATL NO -0.40 7.10 -2.20 -0.30

    Ok, so looking at the matchup above: The avg points that ATL is giving up against TE’s minus the avg points NO TE’s are scoring, equals -0.30. That makes it seem like ATL is decent against TE’s, but when you take into account the fact that NO doesn’t use their TE’s at all, you get a different picture.

    So this is more of a matchup based tool, rather than the regular DvP tool, which gives you an overall idea but doesn’t help much with the matchup that week.

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    I don’t think you are looking at it correctly.

    Atlanta’s score vs tight ends is -0.3. That score has nothing to do with the Saints. I took how many points they gave up to each opponent against how many points on avg that opponent scores. The Falcons, on average gave up .3 points less than the opponents avg. output. So if you are looking for a projection, you could take the Saints avg TE scoring and subtract 0.3.

    I didn’t go that far n this sheet, but it would be easy to do.

    Personally I’m trying to find the right balance in my analysis. last year I got too analytical and couldn’t see the forest for all the trees. but I really liked these rankings. I use these the same way as standard DVP..I look at the outliers to look at teams I may want to target or that I should avoid.

    With this data it drives me towards the Giants QB and WRs (if healthy). Most of the top matchups are some of the worst teams..may make good GPP plays.

  • MTro86

    RG Writer

    @Dmurphy104 said...

    No problem.

    Now that I have the data, I may do the flip side to see how each team’s offense positions are scoring relative to the opposing defensive averages.

    I will probably start running on a rolling 3 or 4 week average as well. When you get to week 8, I don’t know that week 1 is particularly relevant.

    The rolling monthly averages are going to be money. Nice work.

  • Rockfiv0

    hey man, i’m kind of new here but i think this thread is awesome and it’s actually a really cool concept. i’m having a hard time grasping it. This is my 5th week and i started with about 30 in draftkings (10 in fanduel also) and i’m up to nearly 1500 and fanduel nearly 200 ! i love the aspect this brings but all the help the better i am so if im going to spend the money why not do my research?! thanks!

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    Basically the point is to try to normalize the DVP rankings so they aren’t skewed so much by the opponents. As the season goes on, and there are more games, I would expect that these rankings will be very close to the standard DVP rankings..thats where I think the rolling average of my adjusted ratings will be helpful and can provide an advantage.

  • YoAlb

    got you dmurph. yea, i was looking at it wrong before.

    so in order to get that opponent average, you would have to have some pretty complicated formulas going on. i’m trying to build one for draft kings but i think it might be above my excel skill level.

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    It’s a little bit complex..but In my job I create all kinds of reports..so for me, this is kind of along the same lines.

  • Genghis_Khan

    This is great work, Dmurphy, and I for one would be very appreciative if you’d keep posting it throughout the season! Good stuff!

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    The file has updated. It now includes rolling 4 weeks as well. In a couple weeks I will probably add some charts to try to show trend a little better.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1in3D2m71XsUlILaLqgmCouAG-sx0GwZWLg92ZGDSKX0/edit?usp=sharing

  • BobGrinder

    Awesome man, thanks for sharing your work.

  • Galante118

    • Blogger of the Month

    Any though of putting a differential column for each position, to make it easier to find the biggest discrepancies? Just an idea =)

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    You are looking for discrepancies between the rolling 4 weeks and full year? I’ll try to get that in next week if the formatting works.

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    I added a tab for DraftKings scoring.

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