STRATEGY FORUM

Comments

  • shanksalot

    2013 PFBC Champion, 2013 DFBC Finalist, and 2013 FFFC Finalist

    • 381

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2017 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2013 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    Tonight we have the $27 entry 1 million mega pitch on Draftkings. With a full 12 hours left we have Max out in the lead with a cool 888 entries. Anyone want to guess what the top number of entries will be at contest start? If you can correctly guess the user and entries you will a free high five from me.

    P.S. I would like to thank all those big users for this awesome prize pool and I know 888 entries takes a lot of skill and doesn’t “cover” all possible combinations. So lets just have some fun and guess the totals.

  • maxeernst

    @tommygmets86 said...

    He is one of the best players I’ve seen since I started playing in 2010
    I’ve tried “buying” tournaments, it’s harder than you think

    Must be incredibly time consuming. Thousands upon thousands of clicks.

  • shanksalot

    2013 PFBC Champion, 2013 DFBC Finalist, and 2013 FFFC Finalist

    • 381

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2017 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2013 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    I wish people would take the emotion out of this. It really has nothing to do with who is a good guy or who isnt. It’s not a personal attack on any one individual because a majority of people if they had the bankroll would take many more chances in these tournaments. Maybe not 800 plus but definitely way more. Its the rules as they are set up and no one is breaking them.

    I’m not sure there is a right number but it would be great for DFS sites to have a somewhat consistent cap on entries. It really makes no sense how it is being done now. There may be 5 guys who exceed 500 entries tonight. Just a guess but if we maxed out entries at 422 tonight which is 1% how much would it lower the prize pool? I would think it would still be well over 950K which no one would care.
    Think about this….with 888 entries and 15 games he can have 59 unique line ups PER GAME. Basically 30 stacks with different pitchers for every single team playing on the board tonight. Good luck if you pick the right game tonight. You will only need your 1 line up to best Max’s 30 that he has on that game.

    Also MLB is a much different argument than NFL and PGA hopefully we can agree on that at least so maybe stop pointing out those single entry winners.

  • kcchiefsfan73

    Shanks – you’re the man. Way to put in perspective. Bravo! You might as well pick up a friend, head to the bar and play State funded Keno. Far less research and mouse clicks.

  • baseballs

    you just have to research harder to find the “value” plays!!

  • cb35

    2013 FFFC Finalist, 2013 DFFC Finalist

    • 2013 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    Shanks you are doing the lords work. Lesson learned – I was grinding tickets to this event and now I feel kind of foolish. Hopefully I can get my expected value out of the tickets and move on.

    File under: Man vs. the Machine

  • einars

    @shanksalot said...

    Also MLB is a much different argument than NFL and PGA hopefully we can agree on that at least so maybe stop pointing out those single entry winners.

    didnt a single entry win 1st and 2nd on the big $300 entry tourny last week?

  • jimmyrad

    Watch out for that guy with 16 entries, he’s a beast!

  • ObiWanBonogi

    Here is a thought experiment for some of you:

    A hardcore DFS player wants to enter 800 lineups tonight. He is a skilled DFS player with a history of good results and he thinks all 800 of these lineups are very good. He has over 1000 identical multi-entry gpp tournaments to choose from, Each tournament will fill up with 40,000 entries from the same pool of competition and have identical, standard gpp payout structures.

    Which tactic, in the long run, would see better results for this player, or would the results be the same?
    a) Entering all 800 lineups into a single one of the gpps.
    b) Entering one of his lineups into 800 different gpps.

  • CrazyGabey

    @shanksalot said...

    It’s a big topic which is why it won’t go away. Changes will come at some point. It may be easier for you to just not read or post than to tell people find another hobby.

    HAMMER

  • Unico10

    • 500

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #75

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Well… I won 27 tickets over the weekend and I am playing them.

    I usually enter 10-12 lineups max – I must say that is less fun to enter 27… can’t imagine 800 (and there will be a lot of dead lineups amongst those 800)

    One thing that merits our attention.
    Last Tuesday DK ran the $3 with a $100k first prize CAPPED AT 200 ENTRIES per player and IT FILLED.
    Repeat IT FILLED.

    I entered 30 lineups. Did well, had a minor sweat as I was 20th before Posey hit the late HR and finished 70th.

    But I felt good entering and I felt I had a very good chance with 30 vs 200 as I think I am pretty good at MLB. Tonight? Not so much… with the 1000 entries guys, if I had not done well with tickets I would probably just enter one lineup.

    So, for the argument that the 1000 entries guys make these tourneys possible, how many players are being swayed away from mini-multi-entering when they see the 1000 LU guys in it? Food for thoughts.

  • jimmyrad

    @Unico10 said...

    I felt good entering and I felt I had a very good chance with 30 vs 200 as I think I am pretty good at MLB. Tonight? Not so much… with the 1000 entries guys

    See i don’t get this, it wasn’t 30 vs 200, it was 30 vs 112000, same as if Max entered all 112000 or once.

    He’s got 800 entries tonight? I couldn’t possibly give less of a shit.

  • dude_abides7

    The issue (if any) is not the mass entry player, but the DFS site that host the contests in question for not putting an entry cap on the damn thing. I can’t see why someone who is trying to make money (and has the buyin means to maximize that potential) should voluntarily enter less entries so that others feel like they have a shot?

    Don’t get me wrong, I too am annoyed when I am having a good sweat and look at a 25 entry train ahead of me that presents the difference btw making $100 or $5000 at the higher placements of a GPP. But i also realize I would love to be in that guys position, maximizing the value of his bets.

    Do I think the DFS sites should allow unlimited (or ridiculously high) entry amounts? No. But I am hard pressed to take aim at the smart investor who is in the position to take advantage of this…and does.

    What has not been mentioned yet in this thread is that the true reason the max entry is unlimited or left intentionally massive to begin with. Its not because they want a small minority of high volume grinders to essentially buy the top placements in a GPP. It’s because they want to guarantee their rake and make their money. So with that in mind….I wouldn’t expect a change anytime soon.

  • Unico10

    • 500

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #75

      RG Tiered Ranking

    EDIT:

    Don’t want to beat a dead horse.

    All I want to say is the 200 limit DK had last week worked well and the tourney filled.

  • JMAC126

    @Unico10 said...

    EDIT:

    Don’t want to beat a dead horse.

    All I want to say is the 200 limit DK had last week worked well and the tourney filled.

    The price difference in the entry fee had nothing to do with it either.

  • dp47

    • 2012 RotoGrinders TPOY Champion

    • 2012 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • 2013 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2013 FanDuel NFL Playboy Mansion Finalist

    His name isn’t Mindalury.

  • ElSlappo

    If there was a 200 limit on this $27 GPP, I doubt it would fill but I could be wrong.

    I am typically a pretty low roller, but I threw 40+ LU’s into that $3 GPP, no way I would do that at $27 per entry.

  • steveospeak

    @Unico10 said...

    EDIT:

    Don’t want to beat a dead horse.

    All I want to say is the 200 limit DK had last week worked well and the tourney filled.

    The MLB Swing for the Fences 300K tournament last week didn’t fill. there were only 111679 out of a possible 115000 entries. There wasn’t overlay, but the contest didn’t fill.

    I didn’t enter the $300 big tournament on Friday, but I’m pretty sure that not only did it not fill but there was some nice overlay as well.

  • dude_abides7

    @steveospeak said...

    The MLB Swing for the Fences 300K tournament last week didn’t fill. there were only 111679 out of a possible 115000 entries. There wasn’t overlay, but the contest didn’t fill.

    Agreed…but that GPP had an entirely different payout structure with a considerable top-heavy allotment. (1st place made 100K, 5th place made $2K). So the value of that GPP is not the same as this one. The Swing for The Fence was exactly that.

  • steveospeak

    @dude_abides7 said...

    Agreed…but that GPP had an entirely different payout structure with a considerable top-heavy allotment. (1st place made 100K, 5th place made $2K). So the value of that GPP is not the same as this one. The Swing for The Fence was exactly that.

    True, the GPP value is different due to the payouts, but I think if that tournament had unlimited entries (or say a really high cap), not only would it have actually filled, but DK could have raised the total number of entries, which could have led to a flatter payout structure.

    At the end of the day that was a cheap tournament with a mega prize pool (albeit top heavy), that they had been promoting and offering tickets for weeks and they couldn’t fill it, in large part due to the entry cap. If they were to put a 200 entry cap on tonight’s $27 tournament there would be a lot less money in that pot because they would have to have the total entries at a far lower number.

  • Unico10

    • 500

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #75

      RG Tiered Ranking

    I disagree
    I think that with an entry cap at 200 there would be a lot more players willing to play 20-30 entries that would make up the difference.

    Surely I am wrong… But how many players will actually play more than 200 entries?
    Can’t be more than a handful right?
    I guess we can download the spreadsheet later and find out!

  • JSteele

    it doesn’t matter STLCards is going to win

  • bigtroll04

    i hope when yahoo and pokerstars enter DFS this yr. they do something about this 1000 entry problem

  • steveospeak

    @bigtroll04 said...

    i hope when yahoo and pokerstars enter DFS this yr. they do something about this 1000 entry problem

    Is it a problem? For all the promotion out there the thing that appears to be growing DFS the most is the size of the prize pools. Those big time prize pools will only be there if you allow for a large number of entries for players.

    Overall I wouldn’t mind seeing some expansion in single entry, or smaller tournament size (and there for a cap) options, but they are out there. If people want they can play a single entry or max 10 entry $27 tournament tonight on DK instead of the big tourney, obviously the prize pools are much smaller, but they are there for people who want them.

  • einars

    @Unico10 said...

    EDIT:

    Don’t want to beat a dead horse.

    All I want to say is the 200 limit DK had last week worked well and the tourney filled.

    huge difference between filling a $3 tourny and a $27 tourny

  • steveospeak

    @Unico10 said...

    I disagree
    I think that with an entry cap at 200 there would be a lot more players willing to play 20-30 entries that would make up the difference.

    Surely I am wrong… But how many players will actually play more than 200 entries?
    Can’t be more than a handful right?
    I guess we can download the spreadsheet later and find out!

    I don’t know, we are 50 min away and right now there are less than 29K entries into the $27 tournament out of a possible 42.5K. I know a lot more of those entries will fill, and it might not end up with overlay (needs to hit 37K), but I don’t know if the full 42.5K fill. And most of the entries probably coming in now are multi-entry players who are well above their 200 entries, because they see the chance for overlay or increased odds.

    I don’t know how many are over 200 entries in a tournament like this, but consider this. Let’s say the top 20 players (in number of entries) average 400 entries (obviously some will be more some less), that is 8K of the entries. If you cap the players at 200, that is a max of 4K entries for those same 20 people (and it could be less with a couple guys raising the average). To make up for that difference you would need 400 people to enter the tournament 20 times extra, I just don’t see that happening.

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