PGA FORUM

  • whodat2

    When: March 7-10

    Where: Orlando, Fla

    Course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge | A par 72 playing at 7419 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Rory McIlroy at -18

    Last Year’s Cut: +1

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | NBC

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • manoffewwords

    @dangasin said...

    I bet the announcers talk about tiger more than every other player.

    Over under on how many times they show tiger woods win record here? Im guessing at least once per day

    Between this week and next,how many times will they show the “better than most” putt on 17 at Players? Seriously, Tiger said he has had this neck strain for several weeks,and it has not improved enough to play golf. Even if he plays next week,this has to be a concern. Hope this is not a start of more health problems.

  • BIF

    @Dewoc19 said...

    and probably have more time than me (which isnt much) to divest Into researching these guys

    You’d be shocked how little research I actually do – 95% of what I do weekly is based on my eye test of what I’ve seen, my elephant like memory and of course figuring out the course and what is needed to be successful and then eliminate who I don’t believe fits then I keep shrinking my player pool as the week goes along – I rarely build a single lineup before 9pm Wednesday night.

    I probably spend double the time reading/posting on here weekly than I actually spend researching. I rarely look at stats for the purpose of researching for my lineups weekly unless I want to validate my eye test or something I think I know about a player. I do look over stats while the tourney is on tv usually when I see a stat or something that makes me go and look at a stat or ranking.

  • Morley

    @Dewoc19 said...

    but might listen to the Tour Junkies free stuff once in a blue moon

    I would gladly pay for the podcasts if they didn’t talk about gossip and their drinking habits for 70 of the 90 minutes. If they restricted that show to 15 minutes it would be amazing but they just want to stretch it out and milk every extra minute

    At very least I wish they offered two separate podcasts as I’m sure their general golf chatter has an audience but who has 90 minutes to hear people talking about someone’s girlfriend, how often they walk their dogs and whether they are in the mood to drink vodka or beer tonight

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Dewoc19 said...

    I know List is not Fowler when it comes to putting, I know he is a bomb and gouge player, but his iron play of recent had been stellar, that’s why I thought he was a good fit, figured he would be hitting some iron close and making some birdies and missing some pars, but I figured hed make more birdies than bogies, not the other way around

    👍let me tell you something about stats..all you have probably heard this week is strokes gained approach (every week to). I just looked at the last two years of the strokes gained approach stats heading into the 2017 and 2018 tournament. In 2018 I looked at last 12 rounds, 24 rounds and 50 rounds for both years heading into the tournament. Guess how many players who finished in the T12 were in the top twenty heading into the tourney…..drum role please…one…Tiger Woods was the only one until I moved it to 24 weeks and guess what…I know have three players…moved it to 50 weeks..three players…in 2017 it was slightly better, each subset had four players who finished in T12. The remaining players who finished in the T12 came in ranked in various positions within the field, typically in the 30-60 range with one ranked outside 70. Stats can be and are very noisy in golf.

  • Dewoc19

    But see there are so many ways to break that down if you are referring to Fantasy National… Are you just using basic stats, nothing specific, are you narrowing it down to Bay Hill, are you narrowing it down further to Bermuda ect ect?

  • BIF

    The Two episodes of Feherty with Couples were quite enjoyable – I had the pleasure of talking to Freddie once for about 10-15 minutes after his practice round at Pebble for 2000 US Open; we talked more about hockey than we did golf 😂 I knew he was a big Avalanche fan and was buddies with Patrick Roy as they had shown him in the crowd a few times at games – we talked a bunch about the Avs who had just lost in 7 games in the semi-final.

    He was super friendly and there was literally nobody around so we just chatted – I was standing behind 18th green near where players were giving autographs and he had finished a practice round and went straight for an interview then the next 4-5 groups came through were all qualifiers and unpopular players so everyone had left the autograph area – I hung around as Richard “Disco Dick” Zokol was coming down 18 and I knew him a little from caddying a couple times on Canadian Tour. While I’m standing there, I hear someone say “did you want me to sign anything ?”… I turn around as I had been looking down 18 for Zokol and it’s Fred Couples – I just about crapped myself as I’m standing there by myself with Couples – after playing a practice round and doing 30-40 minutes of media interviews, he came back to the autograph area to sign. I was basically the only one there but good on him for doing that at the end of a long day with a major to play the next day.

  • cheezpizza

    Stats are close to irrelevant in golf. Each tournament is independent. Its like going to a roulette wheel and seeing it hit a number 5 times in a row and wagering itll do it again the next spin.
    A guy can be #1 in every SG cat and go out and miss the cut.
    Look at Si Woo Kim. Dude was bottom on Tour in a lot of categories coming into the TPC in 2017, and dominated that week.
    Go with your gut on your top golfers for the week and hope for the best.

  • BIF

    @cheezpizza said...

    Stats are close to irrelevant in golf. Each tournament is independent. Its like going to a roulette wheel and seeing it hit a number 5 times in a row and wagering itll do it again the next spin.
    A guy can be #1 in every SG cat and go out and miss the cut.
    Look at Si Woo Kim. Dude was bottom on Tour in a lot of categories coming into the TPC in 2017, and dominated that week.
    Go with your gut on your top golfers for the week and hope for the best.

    I pretty much feel the same way but I wouldn’t say they are totally irrelevant, I just look at things with a wider lens and just use a player’s strengths and weaknesses to determine if I cut them or keep them in my player pool but nothing much more than that. I never load up any extra on a guy because of stats.

    Every week is filled with head scratchers if you look at stats, form, history and think those three things will part the Red Sea for you. Just look at Adam Long, he misses the cut every week before and after but somehow he won at Career Builder….how the F is that possible ? I’m personally ok with him winning as if I don’t have the winner in my pool, I’m really happy when the winner is only 0.2% owned but if you only relied on stats, this would make a guy quit DFS as he would never ever be in your player pool.

    I always say DFS Golf is a bit like a lottery where you are trying to pick 6 numbers out of 120-156 numbers but the work I put in is not necessarily focused on nailing the 6 numbers but more about reducing the number of lottery balls in the drum. If I can eliminate 40% of the field, then I actually have a punchers chance to be successful leaving me with trying to nail 6 golfers out of the remaining 70-90 guys (of which I further pair down to 24-32 golfers in my player pool).

  • dangasin

    Chance favors the prepared mind.

  • Kp24

    Crazy what a year does.
    Last year:
    Bryson $6900
    Harman $8500
    Molinari $7300
    Sam Burns $7200

  • superstars92

    @Kp24 said...

    Crazy what a year does.
    Last year:
    Bryson $6900
    Harman $8500
    Molinari $7300
    Sam Burns $7200

    Wait what does Sam Burns have to do with the other 3? Is it just a relative comparison to Bryson and Molinari?

  • superstars92

    So am I supposed to choose Sungjae Im again at 7k? He’s like the only way I can fit in multiple studs.

  • Kp24

    @superstars92 said...

    Wait what does Sam Burns have to do with the other 3? Is it just a relative comparison to Bryson and Molinari?

    Nothing at all. Just the 3 biggest salaries I was able to glean from the first 4 pages of last years thread and then tossed him in there

  • superstars92

    @cheezpizza said...

    Stats are close to irrelevant in golf. Each tournament is independent. Its like going to a roulette wheel and seeing it hit a number 5 times in a row and wagering itll do it again the next spin.
    A guy can be #1 in every SG cat and go out and miss the cut.
    Look at Si Woo Kim. Dude was bottom on Tour in a lot of categories coming into the TPC in 2017, and dominated that week.
    Go with your gut on your top golfers for the week and hope for the best.

    I get what you are saying, but Si Woo Kim is not the best example though. He has like top 5 upside very few golfers with the same stats that he does have. He like literally can go 5 MCs 2 WDs then win a Major. No joke. Like I wouldn’t be surprised if he won this tourney or finished dead last.

    Si Woo Kim might have been on more GPP winning teams for a sub 8k player than any player still under 8k in the last 3 years (so exclude those who are actually good but underpriced like Finau, Xander, and Cantlay).

  • superstars92

    @dangasin said...

    from the 8 weeks of double up data, patrick reed had 2 of them over 10%. Why exactly does fleetwood get such insane love? Molinari is a major winner at $100 cheaper and will probably have 1/4 the ownership

    Cause he has nice hair. Molinari is going bald.

  • JULIUSCEAZA

    @Morley said...

    I would gladly pay for the podcasts if they didn’t talk about gossip and their drinking habits for 70 of the 90 minutes. If they restricted that show to 15 minutes it would be amazing but they just want to stretch it out and milk every extra minute

    At very least I wish they offered two separate podcasts as I’m sure their general golf chatter has an audience but who has 90 minutes to hear people talking about someone’s girlfriend, how often they walk their dogs and whether they are in the mood to drink vodka or beer tonight

    Best show on turf “Hater”

  • mtdurham

    @DFSx42 said...

    thanks for the feedback – I mentioned in first blog that it’s not really a discussion of golf but the journey towards creating a better model

    I’m a former poker player and during those days found that by helping others on 2+2, where say I’d put in my two cents about 3 betting with JJ and getting 4bet – well that actually helped me more than it would likely help the people who read what I was writing. While the thoughts are all there, being forced to verbalize them makes one much more aware of them and lets them really think about it on a deeper level than if they just silently plugged away on their own. Each time I write a new entry, I’m left full of new thoughts and ideas of how I’ll proceed going forward. It’s been very helpful for me to write stuff out.

    Basically, I scrape a lot of data but everything I get is stuff anyone can copy paste if they spend some just google searching and copying into excel.

    I’ve also extensively studied the winning lineups, the “perfect lineups” and the lineups produced by the top players. I’ve found there’s very little correlation. In another sport I can usually take a quick glance at a lineup and immediately have a pretty good grasp on their relative level. I can’t even begin to do that in golf. Now there are some lineups that I see where I’m just like “wtf were they thinking” but for the most part it’s just a lineup that may or may not beat me in h2h.

    Now there is some correlation but not really. Most stuff is helpful but not really an indicator someone will succeed. We know Dustin Johnson will succeed because he often succeeds. Nothing particular about his stats that aren’t results based really indicates he’s any better than anyone else. So golf is really about squeezing the margins, my whole plan is to identify a group of golfers that may individually have 1-5% more likely chance of performing than other people in their price bracket and hope that on the whole and in the long run it pays off.

    I plan on writing about this later.

    I agree with your point entirely. A lot of my biggest breakthroughs I’ve made either while trying to figure out how to articulate a point on the forum or shortly thereafter while thinking about it a little further. I’m also an ex 2+2’er.

    I used to live with a fairly recognizable poker pro and when he would talk thru hands I realized holy crap there are some people thinking about crap I didn’t even know existed. And this is after been playing successfully over a decade!

    I read the blog last week and definitely saw some good long term potential in it. Ill check it out this week.

    I know nothing about this tournament yet but I just took a quick glance at pricing and I’ll almost certainly be going stars/scrubs and fading the balanced builds this week.

    The top seems pretty loaded and the bottom had PLENTY of guys I think are viable.. like more than I’ve ever seen…

    I mean there are guys all the way down to $6k who I’ve played willingly for way more than that.

    I wasn’t planning to play a lot of lineups this week but now I sorta feel like I have to because there’s so many guys I wanna play!

  • superstars92

    @mtdurham said...

    I agree with your point entirely. A lot of my biggest breakthroughs I’ve made either while trying to figure out how to articulate a point on the forum or shortly thereafter while thinking about it a little further. I’m also an ex 2+2’er.

    I used to live with a fairly recognizable poker pro and when he would talk thru hands I realized holy crap there are some people thinking about crap I didn’t even know existed. And this is after been playing successfully over a decade!

    I read the blog last week and definitely saw some good long term potential in it. Ill check it out this week.

    I know nothing about this tournament yet but I just took a quick glance at pricing and I’ll almost certainly be going stars/scrubs and fading the balanced builds this week.

    The top seems pretty loaded and the bottom had PLENTY of guys I think are viable.. like more than I’ve ever seen…

    I mean there are guys all the way down to $6k who I’ve played willingly for way more than that.

    I wasn’t planning to play a lot of lineups this week but now I sorta feel like I have to because there’s so many guys I wanna play!

    You gonna play in the WSOP this year?

  • dangasin

    @superstars92 said...

    Cause he has nice hair. Molinari is going bald.

    you know what, I am making hair based teams moving foward. Lord mullet Charley Hofmann, Pat Perez, Brian Gay, Tommy Fleetwood, Stewart Cink, freddie couples, and beef

  • mtdurham

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    Looking at various stats and other prices on DK, assuming those others are more correct I can agree with a ~7k price.

    Plus 6.2/50 is 0.124, and 8/60 is 0.1333, so you get 0.0093 diff, which times 50k is 467, which on top of 6200 gets you pretty close to 6700 which tracks with your low end there.

    Is the idea that FD’s pricing algo is “more correct” than DK’s “algo” (which I think is just “vegas line on first day available” or used to be)?

    I think that’s a poor way to view salaries and I see people doing this FPS/$ stuff a lot between sites and it really grinds my gears because it makes no sense at all in my opinion. Id run a marginal cost analysis instead.

    DK has $50k with $6k min price…. So $6k x 6 = $36,000…. leaves you $14,000 marginal so if a golfer cost $10k he’s really $4,000 marginal… or $4,000 / $14,000 for a 27% marginal cap rate.

    Meanwhile Yahoo has $200 to spend on 6 golfers with a minimum price of $20… So 6 x $20 = $120 leaving you with $80 marginal…. So if a golfer cost $40 that’s really $20 marginal or 20/80 = 25% marginal cap rate.

    Hope that is helpful to anyone who multi-sites. Gives you a quick Apple’s to Apple’s comparison between their pricing on each site.

  • mtdurham

    @superstars92 said...

    You gonna play in the WSOP this year?

    No plans to I’ve been totally away from the game for a few years. I traveled 2014-2015 and played about ~75-100 different venues all over the country while I was deciding where I wanted to live.

    By the end of it I decided I didn’t want to live in a dang casino anymore. Too many miserable souls. And frankly, the game has gotten too hard and they rake it to death with all these hourly jackpots and crap… when $8-$10 pot is going to the house & tokes the game needs to be LIVE to make any money.

    I was never that successful in tournaments anyway… few decent scores online and home game tournaments but nothing really noteworthy in live events. Have a few friends with multiple million dollar hits that make my results look like utter trash lol. Much more of a cash game guy in poker.

  • mtdurham

    @Morley said...

    I would gladly pay for the podcasts if they didn’t talk about gossip and their drinking habits for 70 of the 90 minutes. If they restricted that show to 15 minutes it would be amazing but they just want to stretch it out and milk every extra minute

    At very least I wish they offered two separate podcasts as I’m sure their general golf chatter has an audience but who has 90 minutes to hear people talking about someone’s girlfriend, how often they walk their dogs and whether they are in the mood to drink vodka or beer tonight

    I love DFS golf podcasts. I listen to about 5-6 a week for this year’s event and then I listen to their one from last year at this event to see how they did and learn more about the course and make sure I’m not just playing guys who did well last year.

    I can’t listen to the tour junkies for 10 minutes. Can’t do it. You hit the nail on the head with the description of their podcast. It’s bad. It’s really bad in my opinion. Just a giant waste of time.

    Like if a story isn’t directly related to DFS golf it better be hysterical or really short. At the very least it should be a segue for a larger point. Otherwise why is it on a DFS golf podcast? I mean that’s a fairly niche audience right? This isn’t the Joe Rogan experience

  • fsupete01

    @superstars92 said...

    So am I supposed to choose Sungjae Im again at 7k? He’s like the only way I can fit in multiple studs.

    Talentwise yes, however, with him being only 20 years old – I wonder what his mental state will be after that disaster of a weekend.

  • eruthruff

    @BIF said...

    I had the pleasure of talking to Freddie once for about 10-15 minutes after his practice round at Pebble for 2000 US Open

    I haven’t been to a PGA tournament in a long while, but the three times I did go I was surprised by how easy it was to get close to and talk to some of these guys. Mostly, it happened by accident, though, not when I was trying. I was standing alone waiting for a taxi in the rain at the Greater Milwaukee Open when Fred Couples walked by and just started chatting with me. Later that night, I sat next to Kenny Perry and family at a Burger King. During a rain delay, I said ‘hi’ to Brandel Chamblee while he was waiting to collect his paycheck or something (back when he was a lousy player rather than a good announcer). At the Players Championship, Time Kite said hi to me while looking at the leaderboard. I also enjoyed watching Billy Casper and Lee Trevino play demonstration rounds (I’m blanking on the usual name for this) to small’ish groups at the local country club.

  • eruthruff

    Regarding variance: I’ve concluded that, even after correcting for course difficulty, a player’s 4-round tournament score has a standard deviation of at least 5 shots, even for the most consistent players. I think that putting surface, course length, course fit, etc., matter a little bit but don’t account for more than a small fraction of this variation. Another small piece is probably genuine and somewhat stable variation in skill over time (month to month) . But I’d say the variance is mostly just plain luck (say, +- 4 shots) plus some unpredictable variation in skill (week to week differences in timing) that’s difficult to distinguish from luck. Anyone disagree?

    That said, it’s much more fun to create narratives to explain away the variance, or find the magic stat.

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