PGA FORUM

Comments

  • whodat2

    When: March 7-10

    Where: Orlando, Fla

    Course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge | A par 72 playing at 7419 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Rory McIlroy at -18

    Last Year’s Cut: +1

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | NBC

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • byo34

    @ButBongoFiesta said...

    Couple of golfers 6300 and lower look enticing

    6200 Cink??? I love it!

  • lfn1992

    @Kp24 said...

    Sam Horsfield- Grew up in FL, debuted with 14th here last year, hopefully over some of his yips

    $6700

    He played like crap in PR, I played him there. Horsfield has a lot of potential but feels like it’s too early for him to jump to PGA. Feels like a EURO player to me

  • StabiloBoss10

    should have missed the cut last week…..

  • timgodd375

    @bigez952 said...

    I personally think he is priced where he should be. He has been playing decent so far this year and loves this course so if they made him like $9800 he would be 50% owned. A good week for DK pricing is when no one is over 30% owned.

    Yeah, I am not arguing that.. I expected him to be about 10.7 with Rose being 11.1 but that was with the thought that Rory would be 11.5+… I just find it funny how now he will probably fall below 10% because all of the touts will say he is super expensive and overpriced and how Rose is 400 less than him

  • Kp24

    @lfn1992 said...

    He played like crap in PR, I played him there. Horsfield has a lot of potential but feels like it’s too early for him to jump to PGA. Feels like a EURO player to me

    It’s always too early until he top 15s again. Naw but seriously, he was bad in PR, but he’s 21 and still figuring it out. It says England next to his name but he is a Florida boy. Ian Poulter took him under his wing and thinks he’s the next big player.

    A lot to digest there but I’m in on him this week.

  • Quadhole

    @mitchsnyderdfw said...

    I had a 6/6 this week in the $5, didn’t come close to cashing. All the guys ended T30 or worse.

    That itself isnt easy to do.

  • bigez952

    @timgodd375 said...

    Yeah, I am not arguing that.. I expected him to be about 10.7 with Rose being 11.1 but that was with the thought that Rory would be 11.5+… I just find it funny how now he will probably fall below 10% because all of the touts will say he is super expensive and overpriced and how Rose is 400 less than him

    I 100% agree and if you like Tiger this week you should be loving this price as it will get his ownership down. If Tiger is going to win anywhere this season this has to be one of his best shots at a smaller invite only field on a course he has proven to dominate over the years.

  • smallANDflaccid

    @DFSx42 said...

    We know Dustin Johnson will succeed because he often succeeds. Nothing particular about his stats that aren’t results based really indicates he’s any better than anyone else. So golf is really about squeezing the margins, my whole plan is to identify a group of golfers that may individually have 1-5% more likely chance of performing than other people in their price bracket and hope that on the whole and in the long run it pays off.

    “my whole plan is to identify a group of golfers that may individually have 1-5% more likely chance of performing than other people in their price bracket and hope that on the whole and in the long run it pays off.”

    Yup – just like most GPP things, if you find players who’s distribution of potential scores skews higher than the rest, and then try to get more exposure to that – it will do better over time.

    “the “perfect lineups” and the lineups produced by the top players. I’ve found there’s very little correlation”

    Coming out of those distributions will be random (weighted random), and it varies by course. So if you mean correlation on diff days, for sure. But you will find correlations in the same tournament. (as they were exposed to the same randomness over that time period – and introduced their own)

    To the point of trying to find those with the edge as well as how/why Dustin is better – I think you will see SG will be useful. For me personally I didn’t see the value right away.

    I come at things from a finance background – there are things in the stock market that like changes in stock prices may not follow a certain pattern – but the log of their change in price over time does. Or the time series looked at by default vs other windows may be better. So someone who is doing the “less useful” approach may write it off, but with adjustments may then see new value.
    (not saying to use log of changes in golf is the secret – just an example of tweaks to approach can be suddenly much more useful)

    Also – I like that you aren’t telling us to f-off with feedback – a rare thing to see on the internet.

    My two biggest takeaways after doing this for years is that:
    1) more sites have better data now, so the average player on DFS sites has gotten better at PGA
    2) if you use sites, then you are using the data they have – so finding the edge so that you are doing something others are not is where value will be (which seems sort of like how you may be going if scraping your own)

  • byo34

    Laird at $6,700 is just sucking me in. I love to play Party Marty, and he has played here 8 years in a row without missing a cut. Which I know is a little easier because a slightly smaller field but eh, I am a sucker.

  • sfguy21

    I love Rory, but I can’t bring myself to pick him here this week. I know he’s hot as he’s ever been and won here last year, but for some reason I think thats going to work against him more than help him this week.

    EDIT: I should mention this is based on zero research this far. I’m just formulating gut opinions at this point.

  • smallANDflaccid

    @DFSx42 said...

    We know Dustin Johnson will succeed because he often succeeds. Nothing particular about his stats that aren’t results based really indicates he’s any better than anyone else.

    Putting has more exposure to randomness so will have a higher variance.

    If DJ and I both went out to the same green and from the same spots putted a 100 balls every day for a week and tracked that – he may have days worse than others, and I may have days better than others. I may in fact be pretty “good” at putting and some days beat him, giving the illusion that I am a good putter.

    But, if DJ and I both went out to the same driving range and hit 100 balls with a driver every day for a week and tracked that – again, he will vary a bit – but if I suck (AND I DO), I will never in my life accidentally have a string of days where I look like a pro driver.

    So there are different parts of the game where you can measure people and see distinct differences in their distributions – but distributions are just that. If someone is likely to do well, it doesn’t mean they always will.

    So how can you measure things to be able to predict that – and what variables change with that, and can you collect enough of that to account for the randomness that is out there?

    The last thing is that humans are built to find patterns and tell stories. We want to backfit a story as to why someone did well, or how smart I was for picking someone to do well, etc.
    You are asking the right questions to avoid that it seems.

  • bluesunday1287

    Well, I had a few good weeks and started making more lineups and really took a beating the past two weeks, especially with my Anchor Adam Scott last week. I’m going to make one lineup this evening and enter it in some single entry and 3 entry maxes and I’m not going to tinker at all this week.

    I just seem to do better when I limit the amount of lineups play, I’m sure I am doing it wrong.

  • Quadhole

    @DFSx42 said...

    thanks for the feedback – I mentioned in first blog that it’s not really a discussion of golf but the journey towards creating a better model

    I’m a former poker player and during those days found that by helping others on 2+2, where say I’d put in my two cents about 3 betting with JJ and getting 4bet – well that actually helped me more than it would likely help the people who read what I was writing. While the thoughts are all there, being forced to verbalize them makes one much more aware of them and lets them really think about it on a deeper level than if they just silently plugged away on their own. Each time I write a new entry, I’m left full of new thoughts and ideas of how I’ll proceed going forward. It’s been very helpful for me to write stuff out.

    Basically, I scrape a lot of data but everything I get is stuff anyone can copy paste if they spend some just google searching and copying into excel.

    I’ve also extensively studied the winning lineups, the “perfect lineups” and the lineups produced by the top players. I’ve found there’s very little correlation. In another sport I can usually take a quick glance at a lineup and immediately have a pretty good grasp on their relative level. I can’t even begin to do that in golf. Now there are some lineups that I see where I’m just like “wtf were they thinking” but for the most part it’s just a lineup that may or may not beat me in h2h.

    Now there is some correlation but not really. Most stuff is helpful but not really an indicator someone will succeed. We know Dustin Johnson will succeed because he often succeeds. Nothing particular about his stats that aren’t results based really indicates he’s any better than anyone else. So golf is really about squeezing the margins, my whole plan is to identify a group of golfers that may individually have 1-5% more likely chance of performing than other people in their price bracket and hope that on the whole and in the long run it pays off.

    I plan on writing about this later.

    Believe it or not, comments on here have help me make choices in the future. Like when a guy once wrote “this is his 6th week in a row” I now watch for it.
    To this week : I would normally like Schenk, but 9th week in a row and longer course. Thats a toss…

    Not being on a TEAM makes every week that much different for every player.

    Some of these guys have superstitions. Who wants to win the week before the masters ? Nobody that really wants that Major and has already won before.

  • BIF

    Who’s got the rake free link ?

  • Kp24

    BIF, Dunzor or Cooper08

    Do we have any course comparisons that come to mind here?

  • timusbr

    @HunkerToe said...

    Sam Saunders is the melted ice at the bottom of an iced tea and lemonade.

    cmon now Sammy is putting together some nice events. He is making the cut more now than in previous years. IMHO he has improved from years past.

  • Kp24

    @BIF said...

    Who’s got the rake free link ?

    Also this!!

  • Bastardo

    Tiger just withdrew…FYI

  • timgodd375

    Wow, the goat just WD with a neck strain… Hope it is not serious

  • bluesunday1287

    @BIF said...

    Who’s got the rake free link ?

    hasn’t been released yet, I don’t believe.

  • ButBongoFiesta

    TIGER WD

    EDIT: Glad I didn’t buy tickets for The Players yet. Now I don’t think I will go if he isn’t playing.

  • chrissyfools

    @BIF said...

    Who’s got the rake free link ?

    I don’t think it’s out yet. I’ll keep looking.

  • smallANDflaccid

    Tiger dropping out totally opens this up for Gamez.

  • timgodd375

    There goes sub 10% Tiger

  • Jonas137

    @bluesunday1287 said...

    hasn’t been released yet, I don’t believe.

    Yeah, it is not out yet

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gambler (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL only.