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  • whodat2

    When: March 15-18

    Where: Orlando, Fla

    Course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge | A par 72 playing at 7419 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Mark Leishman at -11

    Last Year’s Cut: +3

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | NBC

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • JimKronlund

    @bigez952 said...

    There is no law in place that I am aware that dictates what type of scoring games have to have so a system like that would be fair game if DK decided to make the change.

    There are many parameters each states legislator has set for it to be legal at all. They cannot just change contests without making sure it still falls within legislative mandates.

  • dangasin

    @JimKronlund said...

    I spent a lot of hours looking at Eagles stats from many different ways. In the end the actual number of eagles by a player is so few in total that there was simply not enough to have any chance of accurately picking a player that has a significantly statistical edge over any other player. Not on Par 4’s or 5’s. Each of them were separated by only a small percentage. There is also many that had only played 20 tournaments, and the other players had played 20 to 35+ tournaments. I could not even set up control factors that allowed me the ability to gauge apples to apples. Then when I went even deeper I found that almost every player had 2-3 fluke hole outs to get that Eagle. I stopped right there and forgot about using Eagle stats as any type of being a useful predictor.
    In realistic terms even if you think a player has a better chance to make an Eagle that does not mean he will make one that tournament. If he even does Eagle that still does not mean he has made many points or will be the magic bullet to win big money.
    All of this is an opinion only, but I think using other more reliable statistic analysis is more prudent and more fruitful.

    You also need to take into account going for green percentage. Bubba watson 1 eagle per 300 holes is a lot different than ZJ 1 eagle per 300 holes when ZJ doesn’t go for the green nearly as much as Bubba.

    “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” type of deal

  • BIF

    @dangasin said...

    Is the tiger woods H2H challenge over?

    I’m going to play a little Tiger this week but likely not in cash so I’m gonna pass as I feel I’m robbing Peter to pay Paul 🤔

  • JimKronlund

    @lfn1992 said...

    Of course it also depends on course. If a course has a driveable Par 4 that messes up the calculations. People who normally don’t get eagles sometimes get them there.

    People that normally dont get eagles sometimes get them on Par 5 also. Almost every course has a reachable Par 5 by most of the players. That is not even counting hole outs. Just too many variances, inconsistencies, and the scarce amount of total Eagles is too small for me to use.

  • bigez952

    @JimKronlund said...

    There are many parameters each states legislator has set for it to be legal at all. They cannot just change contests without making sure it still falls within legislative mandates.

    They change contests and add different types of scoring /contests all the time for various sports in the past year. I am far from a legal expert but I would be surprised if state regulators even knew enough about golf to dictate how the PGA scoring system has to be or not allow them to make changes if they wanted. In the end I guess it doesn’t really matter as the trend with all the new scoring systems and updates the sites have been making is usually towards making them higher scoring so they would never drop to a low scoring system like Quadhole proposed even if they really were motivated to make a change.

    It would be interesting to know if there is a state that requires a hole in one or birdie streak bonus in order to make PGA DFS legal.

  • HunkerToe

    @nicholasmarsh said...

    The COSMOS wants me to play Kevin Na for some reason. Double-ugh…

    #YaToTheNa

  • BIF

    @Cooper08 said...

    I don’t care much for weekend golf and rarely play as it is just scoring dependent and factors in no finishing place. What would make it better in my opinion would be place diff points. If you start out the weekend in first and finish fifth you lose four points and vice versa if you gain those positions you get a extra four points.

    I’ve done too much thinking on how they could improve Weekend Golf and agree that the NASCAR DFS-like position change points is the way to go but I think 1 full point is too much from a few example I ran.

    Comparing it to NAS, in racing you have everyone starting at a unique position (1-36 or something like that the last couple races) but in golf, you may have 4 guys in 1st and then 6 guys in 5th. Well unless the guy in 1st was DJ and the other 3 were Matt Every and his triplet brothers – I’d never play a guy in 1st in this scenario.

    If everyone started the weekend in a unique position, then you could probably go a full point position differential but because of their being 70+ golfers and multiple ties among them (which change in position and number each week), you’d have to go with 0.5 or even 0.25. Think of DJ the other week who went from like 55th to 5th or whatever it was – his 50 point differential would have almost doubled his earned points over the weekend and he would have been 99% owned.

    I still like incorporating the differential but it can’t be done at same points as NASCAR because golf has twice as many cut makers versus number of cars and also it is possible to see someone go from 60th to top 10 every few weeks.

  • timusbr

    World Cup of golf status – 4 players yet to register 1)bgraffunder, dbullsfan,reid256, cjs99
    3 people on waiting list. 1) jbishop8(will get in) 2) the daz 3) Brian VT
    I am willing to open up 1 new group if everything fills.

    Problem with group P is still looking for resolution timusbr and kbarnhill

  • BIF

    Geez I didn’t mean to start an eagles discussion and how to value or predict them. There are 2-4 reachable par 4’s this week depending on the player and I guess I poorly stated that while I like Harman’s putting and par 5 performance overall; I doubt he’ll have many chances for eagle where others may – so if I’m splitting hairs or looking at pivots, I’d lean to the higher variance longer hitter in GPP and to a more steady player in cash.

    Agree with Jim and others, Eagles is a bit of a crap shoot but it is based on opportunity and if you don’t have them, you have to rely on hole outs.

    In 4-day golf eagles (8 points versus 3 for birds) are more important than on Weeknd golf (reduced to 6 for eagle and same 3 for bird) so again if you are splitting hairs, you want lean to the higher variance longer hitter here on 4-day golf. These are fractional differences but you gotta lean one way or another.

  • Quadhole

    @bigez952 said...

    There is no law in place that I am aware that dictates what type of scoring games have to have so a system like that would be fair game if DK decided to make the change.

    They wouldn’t even have to change, just add. I like what we do now, but the LAYMAN, maybe even the old retired guy might like something like that… Just a simpler form of DFS for the guy that doesn’t have the time to go through all the numbers. Lets face it, to be the best, it is at min. a 4 hour a week prop. The best, who enter multiple tours., this is a part time job.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Ok, game time…7.5k to 7k who do u like and why? This is for GPP. Can’t use these players. CH3, Chaps, Molinari, Kizzire, Keegan, Burns, Na, Kisner, Streelman and Hoffman. They will be the highest owned and you will need to differentiate in order to place well this week.

    I will start with Fitzpatrick because he has good course history, will be low owned, what Pat Reed did last week makes me feel he can T10, I like his Thursday tee time starting on 10 and first out, he is underpriced. I will add Beau Hossler to as he will be low owned as everyone forgot about him, I think the course sets up well for him, he can get hot with the putter.

  • JimKronlund

    @bigez952 said...

    They change contests and add different types of scoring /contests all the time for various sports in the past year. I am far from a legal expert but I would be surprised if state regulators even knew enough about golf to dictate how the PGA scoring system has to be or not allow them to make changes if they wanted. In the end I guess it doesn’t really matter as the trend with all the new scoring systems and updates the sites have been making is usually towards making them higher scoring so they would never drop to a low scoring system like Quadhole proposed even if they really were motivated to make a change.

    It would be interesting to know if there is a state that requires a hole in one or birdie streak bonus in order to make PGA DFS legal.

    Yeah I make no claim in knowing what each or any state has in its DFS legislation.
    Pretty sure DFS makes very calculated decisions in regards to this so that they will not have a spotlight on them.

  • JimKronlund

    @timusbr said...

    World Cup of golf status – 4 players yet to register 1)bgraffunder, dbullsfan,reid256, cjs99
    3 people on waiting list. 1) jbishop8(will get in) 2) the daz 3) Brian VT
    I am willing to open up 1 new group if everything fills.

    Problem with group P is still looking for resolution timusbr and kbarnhill

    Tim may be you thought of this or people will not like to do. A suggestion is to require an e-mail address when entering.
    That way you have a secondary way of getting a hold of them. Anyways just a suggestion.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @BIF said...

    Geez I didn’t mean to start an eagles discussion and how to value or predict them. There are 2-4 reachable par 4’s this week depending on the player and I guess I poorly stated that while I like Harman’s putting and par 5 performance overall; I doubt he’ll have many chances for eagle where others may – so if I’m splitting hairs or looking at pivots, I’d lean to the higher variance longer hitter in GPP and to a more steady player in cash.

    Agree with Jim and others, Eagles is a bit of a crap shoot but it is based on opportunity and if you don’t have them, you have to rely on hole outs.

    In 4-day golf eagles (8 points versus 3 for birds) are more important than on Weeknd golf (reduced to 6 for eagle and same 3 for bird) so again if you are splitting hairs, you want lean to the higher variance longer hitter here on 4-day golf. These are fractional differences but you gotta lean one way or another.

    I will have at least a handful of teams with Tiger, Fleetwood, List and Kokrak and I will be disappointed if I don’t get at least one from each of them this week.

  • timusbr

    Still need 22 for the Happy Meal

  • BIF

    @timusbr said...

    Still need 22 for the Happy Meal

  • lfn1992

    I may sprinkle a little Willett in there this week. His ball-striking a couple of weeks ago in South Africa was pretty good. His issue as always has been his putting.

  • tmac178

    @Cooper08 said...

    Ok, game time…7.5k to 7k who do u like and why? This is for GPP. Can’t use these players. CH3, Chaps, Molinari, Kizzire, Keegan, Burns, Na, Kisner, Streelman and Hoffman. They will be the highest owned and you will need to differentiate in order to place well this week.

    I will start with Fitzpatrick because he has good course history, will be low owned, what Pat Reed did last week makes me feel he can T10, I like his Thursday tee time starting on 10 and first out, he is underpriced. I will add Beau Hossler to as he will be low owned as everyone forgot about him, I think the course sets up well for him, he can get hot with the putter.

    Matt Every. Horrible form, but has won here multiple times even when not on form.

    Piercy. Good form this year. Piggybacking top 20s in his last 2, 4 top 25s his last 5, with a 6th at Career Builder. Rested.

  • Dewoc19

    @Cooper08 said...

    Ok, game time…7.5k to 7k who do u like and why? This is for GPP. Can’t use these players. CH3, Chaps, Molinari, Kizzire, Keegan, Burns, Na, Kisner, Streelman and Hoffman. They will be the highest owned and you will need to differentiate in order to place well this week.

    I will start with Fitzpatrick because he has good course history, will be low owned, what Pat Reed did last week makes me feel he can T10, I like his Thursday tee time starting on 10 and first out, he is underpriced. I will add Beau Hossler to as he will be low owned as everyone forgot about him, I think the course sets up well for him, he can get hot with the putter.

    Gotta go with my buddy KSDT and from a pure scoring aspect Grayson Murray always scores a ton of birdies, makes a shit ton of high numbers but I’ll take 9 birdies and a horribly missed MC over Stenson’s 3 birdie shit show last week and a MC

    Piercy has also been playing well

  • nicholasmarsh

    @HunkerToe said...

    #YaToTheNa

    Haha. Back-and-forth on that busta :/

    EDIT: I’ve even waiting for someone to set me straight, but I seem to be the only one bringing him up 🤷🏼‍♂️

  • qatman

    @Quadhole said...

    Would it be LEGAL for DK to offer Position Only Points ? Cut is over, 0 for MC. Then 66, 72, 75, whatever is left over the points go opposite the finish.

    Always goes only to 60 points. 1st places gets 60 points, 60th place gets 1 point ?

    1st – 60
    2nd -59
    3rd – 3 tied 58 each
    and so on.

    This was basically the system used by the dearly departed Fantasy Feud. It was something like 1st – 100, 2nd – 90, 3rd – 80, …., down to 41st-50th – 15, 51st-60th – 10, 61st+ making cut – 5. I loved that system, and also made a ton of profit there (largely due to overlay, which is probably why they got bought out). There were no points for hole-by-hole outcomes.

    I believe they had matchplay events too but there they did use hole outcomes with 1 pt for winning a hole.

    No idea of the legality but it’s all gray anyway. I wish someone would come back with that system – I’d play there until the sharks quickly swooped in.

  • jleit13

    @BIF said...

    I’m going to play a little Tiger this week but likely not in cash so I’m gonna pass as I feel I’m robbing Peter to pay Paul 🤔

    Question for ya that I often struggle with. If your a expecting a guy to be super chalky in cash, do u just play him as a “blocker” sometimes? I too don’t think i’m playing Tiger in cash but i’m also a little nervous he will be insanely popular and if he happens to win or T5 or better I could be in trouble in most 50/50s and double ups. Obviously if I don’t like the rest of my LU with him in it I won’t play him but if its a close call between players do u find yourself taking the chalkier player just to be safe? Hope this made sense, thanks.

  • nicholasmarsh

    I was only mentioning the Eagles/Hole half-heartedly as an ancillary stat. I know it’s not really predictable so was joking with BIF to an extent. I liked what he said pertaining to B-Harm so dug deeper. Though dangasin mentioning Harkins as a 100% to make cut has me pondering :)

  • BIF

    @jleit13 said...

    Question for ya that I often struggle with. If your a expecting a guy to be super chalky in cash, do u just play him as a “blocker” sometimes? I too don’t think i’m playing Tiger in cash but i’m also a little nervous he will be insanely popular and if he happens to win or T5 or better I could be in trouble in most 50/50s and double ups. Obviously if I don’t like the rest of my LU with him in it I won’t play him but if its a close call between players do u find yourself taking the chalkier player just to be safe? Hope this made sense, thanks.

    That’s a tough choice that I face every week; bottom line I still only play guys I like so it depends on what you think of Tiger.

    He’ll be very heavily owned so a Fade obviously comes with risk – if you knew he was going to be over 50% you’d probably want to play him but I struggle predicting cash game ownership so can’t really advise.

    Sorry i couldn’t be more help

  • nicholasmarsh

    @jleit13 said...

    Question for ya that I often struggle with. If your a expecting a guy to be super chalky in cash, do u just play him as a “blocker” sometimes? I too don’t think i’m playing Tiger in cash but i’m also a little nervous he will be insanely popular and if he happens to win or T5 or better I could be in trouble in most 50/50s and double ups. Obviously if I don’t like the rest of my LU with him in it I won’t play him but if its a close call between players do u find yourself taking the chalkier player just to be safe? Hope this made sense, thanks.

    We think Fleetwood ($9.5K) or Tiger ($10K) are going to be more popular? Or both? Can easily fit both so I may start a cash lineup with that in mind. I’m not a huge H2H guy so normally just play a main lineup; however that ends up working out. From what I’ve heard on here, guys don’t mind “the block” play on the higher priced guys with faith that they’ll smash on the lower guys? My two cents…

    EDIT: the guy you asked the question to beat me to it so disregard :)

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