PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: March 5-8

    Where: Orlando, Fla

    Course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge | A par 72 playing at 7419 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Tyrrell Hatton at -4

    Last Year’s Cut: +3

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | NBC

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Cup 2021 Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • ifthethunder

    @BrianVT said...

    Some low guys come up and high guys come down.

    I understand that. There’s no missed cut risk and the place differential points don’t come into play in showdowns 1-3.

    What I’m interested in this differences between similarly-priced players. For example, Corey Conners’ price went up and Adam Hadwin’s price went down. I was only putting Conners in one lineup because I liked Hadwin (and Emiliano Grillo) more.

    But it’s not like I’m regularly taking down PGA GPPs and such. Maybe the people with projections and optimizers are smarter. So my thought is: I have 20 lineups, I can increase Conners from 1 to 2 or 3 no sweat. Also experimenting with this in the showdown…With the price drops, you can fit Chambeau and McIlroy into the same lineup.

    But again: maybe the smart move is to play the high-priced gophers in showdown whose prices DIDN’T fall so much. I have plenty of pocket change to experiment with, so why not try both?
    ~

  • BrianVT

    @ifthethunder said...

    What I’m interested in this differences between similarly-priced players. For example, Corey Conners’ price went up and Adam Hadwin’s price went down. I was only putting Conners in one lineup because I liked Hadwin (and Emiliano Grillo) more.

    Gotcha. Yea, that’s interesting. All I can think is that those guys play round 1 different historically. Would be interesting to see what Vegas did with those guys from Full Tourney to Round 1 also. Might be tied to that.

  • lfn1992

    Bryson hitting into the wind – and not that great. Seems… very breezy.

    https://twitter.com/BrentleyGC/status/1367154225806008323

  • timusbr

    @ifthethunder said...

    But it’s not like I’m regularly taking down PGA GPPs and such. Maybe the people with projections and optimizers are smarter.

    A long time debatable subject.

    I have also gone down this road in my own way, maybe I didnt keep diving, but I think BrianVT hit it on the head in his first response. You have to go through it too. kudo’s to you for trying to make sense out of the process, and looking under rocks to look for something.

    optimizers are based on projections. (RG projections used to be based off of Nortorious). Perhaps, he is good enough that you feel comfortable about anothers projections. At any rate, you use someone elses projections you will end up with guys with higher ownership. LMAO unless you use my projections that nobody ever follows.

    projections are a bunch of hot air, If you so choose, make your own projections and track them and you will get better at it. Doesnt mean you wouldn’t mind seeing the “experts” projections from time to time. What projections are the most useful? Is it who is more owned out of the top 3 salaries? is it who is the most used lower salary guy? Is it to find more equitable pivot points? On any given event, the experts are off somewhere and what is that value in the end?

    My “trick” to showdowns is – check my list for sprinters out of the gate. FRL, IMHO recure over and over. second round is choose the better golfers that were not in the top 10 in scoring the first day. (regression and bounceback are key words). Then day 3 and day 4 are pulling the stats, looking at players history of top rounds(which days seem to be more prominent), which golfers seem to be playing well but either bad luck or just misses have them closer to par than others.

    In my time playing DK and setting up contests. I noticed inconsistencies in DK over time. I believe, that the worker bees in that organization are scheduled to get this or that done in timeframes already scheduled. They dont have the time or desire to manipulate salaries. the worker bee’s churn and burn. They have the process in stone, they use some type of vegas odds. Thats all I can infer.

  • Ricolasvegas

    Ownership projections im looking at have Kokrak at 25%, $8100 on DK and Leishman at 12%, $8200 This cant be right ? honestly feels like Leishman should be chalk ?

  • qatman

    My DFS golf year has been an unmitigated disaster in every aspect. So, I am dialing way back and only playing the Mayo and Happy Meal, plus a dollar a day for the achievement. Thank goodness for NHL.

    I am also going back to my old standby of one 6500-7500, one 9500-10500, and the rest balanced, which seemed to work pretty well for years. My bookends are Im and Munoz.

    Good luck to all.

  • timusbr

    I did some housekeeping on my DK. I removed people from the leagues I set up for my “special” contest’s and deleted the leagues. 4 in all and to those that use leagues, will find that a little bit cleaner.

    Contests available in the RG Golf league
    Beat the forum (I am the volunteer this week)
    $1 Happy Meal (2) API (the 100 man is full but this gives you a chance at League “cup” points
    $1 The Big Salad – LPGA

    Ive about run out of things to do, so the Updated Happy Meal Cup standings should be out this afternoon.

  • BrianVT

    @timusbr said...

    ve about run out of things to do

    I realized today that I have a lot of tournaments I still need added to my database because they never got played last season during COVID, which is when I was doing my thorough course-by-course data collection. For instance, the Valero coming up at TPC San Antonio, and the Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow, etc.

  • jsteele1020

    I totally forgot this forum existed! What’s up golfers?

  • lfn1992

    @timusbr said...

    projections are a bunch of hot air, If you so choose, make your own projections and track them and you will get better at it. Doesnt mean you wouldn’t mind seeing the “experts” projections from time to time.

    To expand on this – most of my “projections” come from my own analysis for the most part. I have maybe 1-2 “experts” whose advice I look to more than most but they mostly act as a guide and I sometimes deviate spectacularly from them. I’d go as far as to say my two biggest GPP scores came from largely ignoring the experts and playing trends I saw that the big cahunas didn’t seem to pick up on. Basically, I have 2-3 “sources” I look at the most and largely ignore the rest. I figure I can get the idea of who the touts are touting when I look at ownership and whom I’m choosing to pivot from.

    As for the lineup builder tools – I find they are useful if you make sure that they are using your own homemade projections and not the base ones. I mostly do them all by hand but when I used the LU builder I constantly tweaked the ownershup %, weighting, etc. I found when it relied on Noto’s rankings it pushed me to guys like CH III that would end up missing the cut.

    Mostly I’d say you really need to do your own research if you want a big GPP win. It’s OK to follow some experts and some chalky players, but it takes some discipline to deviate from the herd, and that’s the only way you win GPPs IMO.

  • hautalak

    Yeah I very rarely have to worry about my lineups being duped lol

  • ifthethunder

    @hautalak said...

    Yeah I very rarely have to worry about my lineups being duped lol

    I don’t worry about that, either. I’m mainly doing 20-max each week. I’m just trying to figure out how to make higher-scoring lineups more consistently.
    ~

  • Getty33

    Winner is Billy

    Sleeper is Tyler

    about 10 years ago Tyler’s uncle Gary lived next door to my farm (which I no longer own). Never met Ty but had a quick hello and handshake with Dad Mark.

    Oh and a quick fade would be Paul Casey. I’d rather play Poulter or Fleetwood if I were choosing an Englishman. Tally Ho

  • mitchsnyderdfw

    Winner: Billy Ho stays hot and gets the win this week
    Fade: Mats
    Sleeper: The other Rory

  • PlanB

    @BrianVT said...

    Not too far off. Could maybe be $100 higher. I see some other guys around there I’d rather play, but just my opinion.

    👏 bravo

  • byo34

    Winner: Day
    Fade: Good, consistent golfers
    Sleepers: Ben An, Munoz

  • Kingspark35

    After careful consideration, I have concluded :

    1. I want a guarantee block where four come together, making the cut (lots of milly tickets would be nice).

    2. I want the winner (I don’t know who it will be).

    3. I want another golfer who makes the cut (6/6 is essential).

    Oh , I nearly forgot, NO cascade.

  • jcotdl

    ..still running on good vibes from last week’s successes.. it’s all downhill from here friends!
    winner:
    fade:
    sleeper:

  • kps3205s

    Another week of uncertainty and going way off the beaten course with this week’s single LU on DK:

    Winner: Will Zalatoris
    Fade: No such thing with a single LU but…everyone above Sungjae Im
    Sleeper: Matthew Nesmith….No guts, no glory

    Now let’s all go get out there and win the cheddar!!!!!

  • depalma13

    Winner: Hovland

    Fade: Day

    Sleeper: Hoon Lee

  • shadowchap1978

    Ok DK is boosting Victor Hovland now with a top five bet… this is a sign to bet AGAINST him making this cut. I’ll be the one holding the bag on this… since I already bet him to win. So I like Hovland to win and miss the cut lol..

  • Getty33

    @shadowchap1978 said...

    Ok DK is boosting Victor Hovland now with a top five bet… this is a sign to bet AGAINST him making this cut. I’ll be the one holding the bag on this… since I already bet him to win. So I like Hovland to win and miss the cut lol..

    For better or worse, Hovland will be a chalky pick. He has admitted to not liking Florida courses despite his best effort last week. I totally respect depalmas decision to call him the winner, but this is a fade spot to me. Only time will tell.

  • shadowchap1978

    @Getty33 said...

    For better or worse, Hovland will be a chalky pick. He has admitted to not liking Florida courses despite his best effort last week. I totally respect depalmas decision to call him the winner, but this is a fade spot to me. Only time will tell.

    I feel ya, I just made a 20 dollar wager for him to miss the cut. We shall see, he seems due to win again and miss the cut. Got it covered both ways.

  • noddy

    Winner – NeSmith

    Fade – Brycen

    Sleeper – Kirk

  • hbomb57

    Bryson DeChambeau’s attempted transformation into Happy Gilmore continued today when DeChambeau tried to drive the 555-yard, Par-5 sixth hole at Bay Hill ahead of the Arnold Palmer invitational. As DeChambeau said before uncorking his attempt, “everybody wants to see this,” and he was damn right. We’ve been waiting 25 years to see someone match Gilmore’s prowess off the tee and even Sandler’s recent reprisal of the role wasn’t enough to satisfy our unquenchable thirst for the long ball.

    Unfortunately for DeChambeau and those of us rooting for him, he is not a fictional charter in a movie and wasn’t able to hit the green in one. In fact, he tried to reach the green twice off the tee but failed each time. What a shame.
    ==============================================================================================
    Hmmmm, Didn’t this same mentality fail him at Augusta also.

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