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  • whodat2

    When: May 9-12

    Where: Dallas,Texas

    Course: Trinity Forest Golf Club | A par 71 playing at 7371 yards.

    Last Year’s Winner: Aaron Wise at -23

    Last Year’s Cut: -4

    Coverage: PGATOURLive | Golf Channel | CBS

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    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • BrianVT

    @NoLimits0 said...

    No very different.

    I wasn’t really referring to current positions, but rather their chances of winning.

    I do have a good bit of McCarthy, Merritt, and Jones, so hoping they keep the pedal down all weekend.

  • NoLimits0

    @BrianVT said...

    I wasn’t really referring to current positions, but rather their chances of winning.

    I do have a good bit of McCarthy, Merritt, and Jones, so hoping they keep the pedal down all weekend.

    Oh yea I mean nice job picking those 3. I don’t mean to sound demeaning because those 3 were great picks (and scoring a ton of DK points).

    But I really do think that last week Homa and Dufner both had like a 15% chance to win after round 2 but I think this week McCarthy and Merritt are maybe at like 1-2% currently. If they are still leading after R2 I would give them like 7-10% and possibly higher depending how many strokes they are up vs Brooks, Deki, and Mitchell.

    I dunno that’s just my take. I mean right now DK wise those are great picks for sure. Woulda never thought about choosing them except Jones.

  • NoLimits0

    @BIF said...

    He played here last year

    Oh yea that’s true. As usual always making errors lol. Well I hope he learns from that experience and shoots at least like -4. Hope it’s not too windy or at least the wind only affects players I don’t have (so not him RCB Pieters or Mullinax who was also low owned, lower than I thought)

  • Jeddy3

    I need to learn to quit Sungjae

  • BIF

    @NoLimits0 said...

    Homa had like a 15-20% shot to win it after R2 scoring. McCarthy has like a 1% chance to win even after R1. Big difference….context matters here. If anything Merritt should be a slightly better chance than McCarthy because McCarthy can’t replicate his round ever again.

    Homa shot 70-67 on the weekend to win (which was worse than Sergio, Casey, Rose, etc the entire chasing pack) since he just had a huge lead and the other 2 with him aren’t good. If McCarthy is shooting average the next 3 days, Brooks and Mitchell will easily catch him.

    It was a 3-way tie for the lead after 36 holes with Rory, Rose and few other big names lurking 3-5 shots back. A no name non-winner Homa who had missed cut in 75% of his career tournies was way worse odds than 15-20% to win.

  • Kp24

    Would never take him in DFS, but I kinda wanna see Romo go out and shoot a 68. Would just be cool to see someone do it who really has no business playing with the real pros

  • Pbasniper

    @dangasin said...

    Denny mcarthy better take his putter on a nice date tonight. Maybe buy it a few dozen roses and a box of chocolates too

    5.5 SG putting!

  • NoLimits0

    @BIF said...

    It was a 3-way tie for the lead after 36 holes with Rory, Rose and few other big names lurking 3-5 shots back. A no name non-winner Homa who had missed cut in 75% of his career tournies was way worse odds than 15-20% to win.

    Really you think so? I mean you may be right. I thought it was like around 50% to come out of those 3 and like 50% to come from the big name chasing pack.

    It’s because a 3-5 lead is quite large for 2 rounds with 3 players. Like it’s not that easy to make up 2 SG per round even when you are Rory. That’s how I came up with 15-20% (and I would said the same about Dahmen and Dufner who didn’t win obviously).

    Anyways even if it was only 5% (which I think is definitely reasonable if you don’t agree with the 15-20%) I do think it’s still quite higher as of now vs the current leaders (which is 0.5 through R1) in this tournament which is what I was getting at.

    Regardless it’s a great DK pick if you picked McCarthy and others since they already have a lot of DK points. I’m not taking that way.

    Btw this discussion is interesting. I should use it more to make showdown lineups for R4 like create probabilities on how likely each person is to win, finish in x place, etc.

  • NoLimits0

    You know what I’ll try that for R4 give probabilities on how likely someone is to win. I mean no one should be using it (since I’m not good at this) but it would be interesting since placement does matter for R4 (especially the top 3 placement).

  • NoLimits0

    Oh and I completely forgot Schenk teed off and him and RCB already have birdies. Schenk has the harder birdie so far too.

  • Mizzou311

    Lol unintentional comedy due to the Leishman WD. We get pgatourlive coverage of Daniel Chopra!

  • Pbasniper

    Almost ROMO SZN!

  • Goesch89

    So pissed about the Leishman stuff. I cannot for the life of me understand why this type of info isn’t shared more widely. One guy whispering on a morning radio interview, that was the only small account of this injury pre-tournament ? Why was it not more widely reported that Leishman had pulled himself out of the charity tournament because of this?? My bewilderment stems from the fact that this is golf, not football or hockey. The competition gains no competitive advantage by hearing of injury news. The guys ML was paired with are not going to have the opportunity to lay a hit on his back, shoulder, or whatever injury any golfer might have, so why TF does this info get buried like its top secret information??

  • BIF

    @NoLimits0 said...

    You know what I’ll try that for R4 give probabilities on how likely someone is to win. I mean no one should be using it (since I’m not good at this) but it would be interesting since placement does matter for R4 (especially the top 3 placement).

    Not sure what their model is but DataGolf has live odds (not betting odds) to win continually and Koepka is a lot higher than McCarthy despite being 2 shots back and tons of guys yet to post.

    https://datagolf.ca/live-predictive-model

    McCarthy would rate out higher than Homa prior to last week given each other’s past history.

  • BrianVT

    @NoLimits0 said...

    You know what I’ll try that for R4 give probabilities on how likely someone is to win. I mean no one should be using it (since I’m not good at this) but it would be interesting since placement does matter for R4 (especially the top 3 placement).

    No issues with the discussion here. I used to only play R4 showdowns because of the finishing points advantage – I’ve started casually dabbling in rounds 1-3 lately, but haven’t really figured out anything useful. I have one decent one going today which was primarily based on playing the morning guys of the core I already had, which fortunately included McCarthy (.7%) and Jones. Just lucky, I guess. I have no idea how you decide which round someone is going to go ham on. Let us know what you come up with for R4, though!

  • dangasin

    let’s go hideki start it off right

  • Pbasniper

    Michael Thompson quietly out here grinding a nice little BOFR for me. I need every point I can get without Trahan.

  • csandbizzle

    Sabbatini with the tilting bogey on 18 to ruin the BFR

  • RudyPujols

    Played a nice chunk of Dom Bozelli this week just hoping for a low owned scrub dart to stick; great lag putter, bad double bogey problem on more difficult courses that shouldn’t be as big of a problem here, good ability to go low relative to his price/ownership, gut play, etc. Yikes, his strokes gained data is awful, which I just now decided to look at after two stellar ATG shots. Probably would’ve scared me off had I checked pre-lock. Oh well. I’m sure this will turn bad fast.

  • rysportguy

    Damn projected cut right now is -5. That is rough. SungJae going to be a sweat tomorrow.

  • Jeddy3

    I’ve never played Schenk before but it seems like he lives up to his name. Woof on that tee shot.

  • mtdurham

    @NoLimits0 said...

    Oh yea I mean nice job picking those 3. I don’t mean to sound demeaning because those 3 were great picks (and scoring a ton of DK points).

    But I really do think that last week Homa and Dufner both had like a 15% chance to win after round 2 but I think this week McCarthy and Merritt are maybe at like 1-2% currently. If they are still leading after R2 I would give them like 7-10% and possibly higher depending how many strokes they are up vs Brooks, Deki, and Mitchell.

    I dunno that’s just my take. I mean right now DK wise those are great picks for sure. Woulda never thought about choosing them except Jones.

    datagolf has mccarthy in the realm of 5%…. i dont attach any real sense of confidence to their estimates…. but i think 3% is what id guess… like id def take him at 50:1 but i’d be fairly agnostic at 33:1… i wouldnt be interested at 20:1

    bottom line your point stands a few strokes lead is a lot less important in this tournament than most…. he comes out flat tomorrow he’ll be out of the top 10 faster than you can drive to Memphis and get robbed in the parking lot of a Sunoco station while buying a Sun Drop

  • Pbasniper

    God forbid Nasty Yams make an opening 10 foot eagle for my late round showdown tilt lineup.

  • lfn1992

    @cjousma said...

    Finally able to check my lineups for the day, damn work, PGA looks like a good start for my lineup so far thanks to Matt Jones and Sabbs. Need Sungjae to get it together.

    Euro – I already have 1 going to miss the cut for sure in Clement Sordet. Dead last aside from Petr Hanson who withdrew. I’ll have to go back and see why I thought he was a good play.

    Andy Sullivan says hello to Clement Sordet, he’s right there as well

    My Round 1 EURO looks pretty good, 100% Westwood, so of course he’ll probably get b2b triples tomorrow and WD like Detry did.

    Aside from Sullivan, I need Winther to have a hero round tomorrow and make this cut. Frankly I don’t like my chances as he might need to make -4 or -5 to do it.

  • sfguy21

    @Pbasniper said...

    God forbid Nasty Yams make an opening 10 foot eagle for my late round showdown tilt lineup.

    Still on pace for -18 though

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