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  • whodat2

    When: Feb 8-11

    Where: Pebble Beach, CA

    Course: More than one…… Cut after 3 rounds.

    Last Year’s Winner: Jordan Speith at -19

    Last Year’s Cut: Even (Top 60 + ties) (Cut is after 3 rounds)

    Coverage: PGA Tour Live | Golf Channel | CBS or NBC

    Google Doc

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @nicholasmarsh said...

    I feel like we need to wait to the tee-times/pairings before we begin to construct a roster. If we are expecting a decent wind on SAT, do we overload on “wind” guys for just that one day? If Spy Glass is more protected from the wind, do we NOT factor in wind and shoot for guys that play there on SAT. For example, I’m assuming Lowry to be a wind guy because he’s from Ireland and I believe to recall from previous tournaments (regionalist statement). Is he in play? I guess my question is whether to target wind guys for one day or attempt to hide from the wind at Spy Glass for Saturday’s round.

    Side-note: The Killab2482 coaching thread is entertaining. I’m obviously a low stakes GPP player so wouldn’t pay anything per hour for a coach, but I am laughing at the people bitching about the price. Apparently I can be a profitable NBA DFS player for $150-$200/hour… That’s like my annual DFS deposit allowance so not for me, but don’t feel the need to blast dude for the offering.

    Agree with you on waiting for tee times as I have a group of fifty two that will be windled down when tee times are released. I agree on targeting spyglass players on Saturday but I hope Lowry isn’t one of them. I would prefer to play the good wind players on other courses that day as they will most likely do well at any course. I will target players who may not be good wind players on spyglass on Saturday as the wind will not be nearly as bad there as on the coast of the other two courses. Remember good wind players don’t necessarily mean they will shoot under par, it means they may shoot 70-72 while others are shooting 74-78. Also targeting spyglass on Saturday means they will get good conditions for Monterey which is typically the easiest course. Players playing Monterey on Saturday will be at a disadvantage as they will get high winds on a open golf course that will be playing difficult plus it means they didn’t have the shot to score well on the easiest course.

  • GaryScott59

    wolfshield and nicholasmarsh:

    Thanks for the comments. He does look pretty good for the price but my infatuation was over the top. Now have him in 3 of 8 lineups.

  • Ketter

    I feel like I’m coming on super strong with the wind angle, so I want to put it out there that its fairly low on the list of things I’m considering when picking golfers. If I’m having trouble deciding between two guys and one is playing Spyglass on Saturday I’ll lean that way. It’s more important to me for max entering the birdie, because I will definitely be making a few teams that are full stacks of Spyglass Saturday. Weather is super unpredictable and it could end up not being windy at all or the wind comes a different day and I’m screwed, but it’s a risk I am willing to take.

  • wolfshield

    @GaryScott59 said...

    wolfshield and nicholasmarsh:

    Thanks for the comments. He does look pretty good for the price but my infatuation was over the top. Now have him in 3 of 8 lineups.

    I like it. you should be at least 3 – 4 x ownership level over the field, so if he does well you will put yourself in a great position to capitalize on it.

  • nicholasmarsh

    @GaryScott59 said...

    wolfshield and nicholasmarsh:

    Thanks for the comments. He does look pretty good for the price but my infatuation was over the top. Now have him in 3 of 8 lineups.

    Ha-ha… You’ll have to talk to the other fellas about how much exposure you should have. Whatever it is, I believe you should have either more or less (possibly 0%) than the field. Right now you have him at 37.5% so that “should” be more than the field in my opinion.

  • dangasin

    If tiger woods were paired with bill murray, that would account for 100% of tv coverage

  • Jeddy3

    2 lineups with DJ and 2 going very balanced. I think the most common build will be 2 from the 10K+ and then RCB/Henley?/Kokrak/Cook. I think the 2 stud approach is trap central this week.

  • dangasin

    @Jeddy3 said...

    2 lineups with DJ and 2 going very balanced. I think the most common build will be 2 from the 10K+ and then RCB/Henley?/Kokrak/Cook. I think the 2 stud approach is trap central this week.

  • BIF

    @nicholasmarsh said...

    feel like we need to wait to the tee-times/pairings before we begin to construct a roster. If we are expecting a decent wind on SAT, do we overload on “wind” guys for just that one day? If Spy Glass is more protected from the wind, do we NOT factor in wind and shoot for guys that play there on SAT. For example, I’m assuming Lowry to be a wind guy because he’s from Ireland and I believe to recall from previous tournaments (regionalist statement). Is he in play? I guess my question is whether to target wind guys for one day or attempt to hide from the wind at Spy Glass for Saturday’s round.

    Traditionally (regardless of weather) I have tried to avoid guys playing Spyglass on Saturday (unless I really liked them as part of my core) as historically it has been the toughest course and my “too quick to tilt” fragile mental state really doesn’t want to watch any of my guys go from comfortably inside the cut to shooting 73-75 at Spyglass and finishing outside the 54-hole cut line.

    For fun last night, I read a bunch of last year’s AT&T Pro-Am thread – for some dumb reason I played 87 lineups last year and think I had 6 with 6/6 so above the field average of 6.1% but I was on full tilt mode because of a couple guys making late bogies to screw me over and one guy made a triple on 18 to blow a bogey-free round with 7 birds up to that point ! I’m guessing last year I must have had a real good week the week before as there would have no other reason I played 87 lineups – kinda makes sense as I know I had Hideki last year in Phoenix.

  • nicholasmarsh

    @BIF said...

    Traditionally (regardless of weather) I have tried to avoid guys playing Spyglass on Saturday (unless I really liked them as part of my core) as historically it has been the toughest course and my “too quick to tilt” fragile mental state really doesn’t want to watch any of my guys go from comfortably inside the cut to shooting 73-75 at Spyglass and finishing outside the 54-hole cut line.

    For fun last night, I read a bunch of last year’s AT&T Pro-Am thread – for some dumb reason I played 87 lineups last year and think I had 6 with 6/6 so above the field average of 6.1% but I was on full tilt mode because of a couple guys making late bogies to screw me over and one guy made a triple on 18 to blow a bogey-free round with 7 birds up to that point ! I’m guessing last year I must have had a real good week the week before as there would have no other reason I played 87 lineups – kinda makes sense as I know I had Hideki last year in Phoenix.

    Ha-ha… Thanks for the insight, BIF. I will heed accordingly…

    EDIT: So that results in conflicting strategies form Ketter and BIF? Now I’m confused again. HA!

  • kps3205s

    Another week where my PIG outscored my single LU which = no $$$. On to a few things I read on golfstats.com:

    In its history going back to 1950 only one pro has won on his 1st visit to Pebble, and that was Brett Ogle

    In the previous 58 years of the CareerBuilder Classic, nobody has ever won both the AT&T and the CareerBuilder in the same year.

    Since 2005, 7 of the winners led or tied for the lead after completing their first round. Mickelson and DJ twice, Points, Snedeker and Spieth.

    Pro’s play Pebble twice, which has the smallest greens on the PGA Tour. Because of that and the greens at Pebble don’t have many undulations, putting becomes vital in winning. In making putts between 4 and 8 feet it has ranked one of the easiest course on tour 4 of the last nine years, 2017 it ranked 2nd while in 2016 it ranked 3rd. In putts inside 10 feet, Pebble was 4th 2017 and in 2016, 15th in 2015, but first in 2014. In putts outside of 25 feet it was 31st last year and 9th in 2016 after being 22nd in 2015, first in 2014 and 3rd in 2013.

  • Jamcclea

    @dangasin said...

    If tiger woods were paired with bill murray, that would account for 100% of tv coverage

    or Tiger Woods and Kelly Rohrbach.. ;)

  • dangasin

    Who’s picking adam scott?

  • OystersAndBeer

    So when are tee times out? Anxious to see how my core gets scheduled.

    Seems to me like it may be smart to stack a portion (small for me) of your lineups for the windy day at Spyglass.

  • Jeddy3

    Anyone have any strong feelings on Russel Knox? Seems to be playing alright this year for 6700 and he has played here a few times.

  • Jamcclea

    @dangasin said...

    Who’s picking adam scott?

    Not me

  • nicholasmarsh

    @dangasin said...

    Who’s picking adam scott?

    Yeah. None for me either… I’m just not sure why you’d want to go there at this point. Name recognition? His history here is non-existent with the exception of the year the US Open was held here and his only appearance in the past 12 weeks was a weaker field event (Australian PGA Championship) where he missed the cut.

    Now that I said that, he top tens :)

  • dangasin

    @nicholasmarsh said...

    Yeah. None for me either… I’m just not sure why you’d want to go there at this point. Name recognition? His history here is non-existent with the exception of the year the US Open was held here and his only appearance in the past 12 weeks was a weaker field event (Australian PGA Championship) where he missed the cut.

    Now that I said that, he top tens :)

    Well I was going to challenge to a $1 heads up against their adam scott team. I have him on my no play list.

  • GaryScott59

    @Jeddy3 said...

    Anyone have any strong feelings on Russel Knox? Seems to be playing alright this year for 6700 and he has played here a few times.

    He is in one lineup for me. By the time it starts, it could be more.

  • nicholasmarsh

    @dangasin said...

    Well I was going to challenge to a $1 heads up against their adam scott team. I have him on my no play list.

    HAHA… Good angle ;)

    EDIT: You take Kevin Na (on my no play list). I’ll take Adam Scott… Wait. I still don’t like that for me.

  • dangasin

    tour junkies saying DJ is a lock for cash games. I tend to agree given the pricing

  • dangasin

    I think any 6/6 in cash games this week will be guaranteed profit. That might be the same for every week though….

  • nicholasmarsh

    @dangasin said...

    I think any 6/6 in cash games this week will be guaranteed profit. That might be the same for every week though….

    Doesn’t it depend on who you’re matching up against? Like, 6/6 might be me, but maybe not BIF or Ketter7? My 6/6 last week might’ve lost in all cash-games with a whopping total of 436.00 FPTS.

  • cjstout21

    @dangasin said...

    Who’s picking adam scott?

    0 for me. Not even in cash. Better options out there than can actually putt.

  • Jamcclea

    https://www.golfdigest.com/story/european-tour-event-to-have-players-micd-up-interviewed-during-play?mbid=Social_Twitter_GolfWorld&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true

    This is great. I’d love to hear the though process from a player why they chose to hit different shots.

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