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  • whodat2

    When: Feb 8-11

    Where: Pebble Beach, CA

    Course: More than one…… Cut after 3 rounds.

    Last Year’s Winner: Ted Potter at -17

    Last Year’s Cut: -3 (Top 60 + ties) (Cut is after 3 rounds)

    Coverage: PGA Tour Live | Golf Channel | CBS or NBC

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • mtdurham

    @manoffewwords said...

    I have a 3/6 winning $50 in Dogleg at 382 pts. and cashline is 365.Casey,Reavie,RBC. Probably can not hang on, but shows how sometimes getting a 6/6 is over rated.

    careful, i was flogged publlicly for an entire week for saying this last year

  • mtdurham

    @BIF said...

    This one might be the best thing I heard all week – as we know Koepka is a big advocate against slow play so weirdly he actually intentionally plays slow early in the round and even goes to the portable toilet (when he doesn’t have to go) just to chill for 5 minutes to ensure his group gets put on the clock so that everyone now has to speed up and play at his pace !! 😂
    https://www.golfchannel.com/news/brooks-koepka-no-one-has-balls-penalize-slow-play

    hahahahahahah this is something i would do in real life… LOVE it.. . brooks is the man

  • bigez952

    I agree 6/6/ is overrated if your talking bust about your ability to cash as a shitty 6/6 will get beat by a great 3 or 4 out of 6. However your chances of finishing top 10 in a large field GPP and hitting a huge cash is close to 0% without 6/6. So I guess the value of 6/6 is all dependent what’s important to you. My best cash all of last season was a $12 into $75 with 5/6 but with the right 6th that lineup had the chance to win for thousands more.

  • mtdurham

    @bigez952 said...

    I agree 6/6/ is overrated if your talking bust about your ability to cash as a shitty 6/6 will get beat by a great 3 or 4 out of 6. However your chances of finishing top 10 in a large field GPP and hitting a huge cash is close to 0% without 6/6. So I guess the value of 6/6 is all dependent what’s important to you. My best cash all of last season was a $12 into $75 with 5/6 but with the right 6th that lineup had the chance to win for thousands more.

    i mean 6/6 is great dont get me wrong…. but for people who only play 1 lineup a week 6/6 sounds like the holy grail….

    I mean we’ve been getting under 5% 6/6 all year so far… if that held up then someone playing 1 lineup a week would be expecting only like 1-3 6/6 all season…

    So thye’d think OH BABY THIS IS THE WEEK!!

    But a 6/6 realyl doesnt mean much… ive had tons of 6/6 only min cash… if you’re sacrificing a lot of win equity and filling your team up with guys who can just “make the cut” you’re making a big mistake….

    I’ve just had soooo many teams with 6/6 (due to the heavy volume i used to put in) do absolutely nothing on Sundays…. seen many of them dip below the cash line even….

    Usually its lineups that have a bunch of guys like Joaquin Niemann, JJ Spaun or Austin Cook…. they end up shooting 74 on Sunday and you look at all those 4 birdies they made on Satuday/Sunday combined and that ONE extra FPS they get for finishing in 49th place for the oturnament and the handful of points for pars….

    and you’re like wait so this guy MADE the cut and only had 58 points for the entire GPP?

    Your lineup looks something like this
    Reed 82
    Spieth 78
    Grillo 68
    Hadley 67
    Niemann 58
    Cook 56

    Meanwhile you look at the guys you faded
    MIckelson 138 FPS
    Day 120 FPS
    Kuchar 108 FPS
    Casey 104 FPS
    Rose 102 FPS
    Xander 98 FPS

    and of course the randoms
    Si Woo Kim 96 FPS
    Michael Thomson 88 FPS
    etc

    and you’re like oh… those guys in the triple digits are all 20-25% owned… and i dont have any of the mega sleepers…this lineup is trash

    Like i get the cutsweat being a big deal if you have a monster lineup with 3 in the top 5 and you need your 6th man to get there…

    and of course I get the cutsweat when you’re like 70% Finau across 300 lineups and he’s on the cutline…. thats gonna be a massive shift in your remaining equity….

    or if you’e playing something like the $333 and even a mincash represents $500, and it doesnt take a monster score to do well b/c the field of entrants is small

    Or if you’re playing cash games b/c simply getting 6/6 or even a halfway good 5/6 thru is normally a winner in cash

    But overall i get pretty unexcited about the cutsweat for my guys in the large field GPP’s… usually if i have guys on the cutline that lineup ends up trash anyway….

    But i do recognize of course that we’re all playing to hit the big score and you really dont have much of a sweat for big money at all if you dont at least get 6/6

    i sweat the front 9 on thursday pretty hard….i wanna see some guys surging up the leaderboard…. if i dont have a 2% owned Austin Cook at -3 by 8 AM I start getting worried

  • mtdurham

    For whatever reason I just couldnt get into this tournament.. i can see why it’s so unpopular…

    my lineups were pretty blah (looking like a -60% ROI week) from start to finish….so that didnt help but that wasnt why i dont think

    the weather was annoying…. this west coast time zone crap is getting really old… i like getting excited about golf early in the day so i can shift attention to NBA in the afternoon….i dont like the multiple course events as i dont get a good feel for whats going on or feel like im learning anything i can take advantage of in future years…

    My main concern now is that by not watching hardly any of this tournament now I dont have a great feel for who to pick next week…

    I feel like by watching the last two pretty closely i picked up on some things that led me to make smarter picks… one thing im DEFINITELY paying more attention to this week is fatigue…. these guys travel schedule is just insane and it really does seem to come into play when guys are playing multiple consecutive weeks especially if they’re going deep in tournaments..

  • zioncres

    • 2020 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    6/6 also matters a lot more on easier courses and it’s a 2-round cuts. If it’s a course that yield 4-5 birdies per round on average, having that extra guy going into the weekend could easily yield an additional 20-30 pts.

  • mtdurham

    @zioncres said...

    6/6 also matters a lot more on easier courses and it’s a 2-round cuts. If it’s a course that yield 4-5 birdies per round on average, having that extra guy going into the weekend could easily yield an additional 20-30 pts.

    I mean yeah of course… 6/6 was never really the “goal” this week or at least it definitely shouldnt have been given the 3 day cut and the low scoring and the 60 man cut….

    We knew the trade off in going for 6/6 wasnt worth it… this ain’t the john deere classic by any means…

    but i wasnt really referring to this tournament in particular…. most of what i said holds true across all weeks…

    In large field events i still think You wanna play for high finishes and back into 6/6’s…. Not play for 6/6’s and try to back into high finishes….they’re just too infrequent amongst the safety dance crew.

    The Win Equity, Top5-10 equity is a lot more predictable and easy to pin down…

    The 6/6 has too much variance to accurately predict…. i mean even if you gave every guy in your lineup a 90% chance to make the cut it’s still almost 50/50 that you don’t get 6/6 thru….

    So if you start making a lot of trade-offs up top just to get 6/6 thru you’ll end up quite disappointed with the results in the large field events.

    Especially when your “safety dance plays” like Snedeker miss the cut and then your lineup is REALLY bad lol…. thanks brandt!

    I hate Snedeker…. when i first came in the game he was one of the guys i knew so i played the crap out of all summer while he absolutely sucked every week….finally i said “no mas” as any rational human who doesn’‘t hate money would have done at that point….. then i throw a ton of action into the Wydnham event (since i was attending) and the jackalope shoots a 59 on Thursday MORNING rendering EVERY SINGLE LINEUP i have drawing completely dead right off the bat haha…

    That was literally the first time in my 36 years on planet Earth Ive watched a professional golfer play 18 holes of golf and he shot a 59…. what are the chances of that…

    I cant get the guy right….

  • mtdurham

    Can someone give me a bit of a breakdown on the following golfers?

    These are guys I’ve identified that have been very profitable plays for people over the last ~9 months and i want to start playing them more but they arent really televised, talked about, or touted much so I dont have a good feel for their strengths/weaknesses so i never know which weeks to play them and which to lay off them..

    Si Woo Kim

    Scott Piercy

    Tony Finau

    Paul Casey

    Scott Stallings (not familiar enough with him other than the PGA screwing him on TRT suspension or whatever)

    Just kidding about finau, wanted to see if you were paying attention. Also, I noticed he was back down to 10% ownership this week. That’s a good sign. I hate having to fade him the last two weeks, he might be playable again here soon. Also, in that vein it’s time to just stop playing Chalkie Chez all together i think… between his price and his never ending chalkiness due to DFS’ers obsession with him he’s just not a guy you can play profitably in DFS.

  • smallANDflaccid

    I had picked Phil in the One and Done and all weekend was thinking to myself at least I had that. I get in to work and look – nope, switched him out and forgot.

    I’m great at life.

  • mtdurham

    Every DFS sport is different and i really enjoy tackling the nuances…. the thing that’s important ot understand in all sports is the range of outcomes…

    In NBA for instance we see guys coalesce around 5x value… I mean yeah guys have good games and bad games but like clockwork almost everyone by the end of the night ends up around 5x their price….the $4k guys get 22 FPS, the $6k guys get 32 FPS, the $11k gets $58 FPS and everyone on the first 10 pages of the thread saying “THIS GUY IS THE PLAY TONIGHT” looks dumb because he’s sitting their touting a guy who got 5x….. i mean you could have picked a name out of a hat and got 5x…

    So the value in nba is in finding guys in spots to get more mins/usage due to injuries…and that 1-2 humdinger in an amazing matchup that goes bananas….

    Golf is waaaay different as thinking of it as a “multiplier” doesnt really make any sense….we dont see guys coalesce around a multiplier…. we see guys coalesce around raw points…. we see half the field miss the cut and coalesce around 40-50 FPS or whatever…we see another 1/3rd of the field finish in the “Dead Zone” of 25-70th where they get you 55-75 FPS or whatever that doesnt help at all but maybe doesnt require you to take out a 2nd mortgage to play again next week… it just gives you a slow drip of losing and makes you think you are “so close” when in reality you were still a million miles away….

    The key is finding the guys that don’t coalesce in the first two groups. These guys to combine to form that week’s “Honey Hole” and can be divided into 3 sub Groups

    1) The Winner – In any GPP you’re always gonna need the winner… forget everything else.. you need to start with identifying guys you think can win the tournament…. and REALLY focus on guys who can win the tournament who aren’t obvious as crap like the guy who won last week, the odds on favorite, the guy who won last year, etc… because other people are going to play them too and almost always overestimate their current year’s win equity…..

    2) The Top ~5-10…. In general you’re gonna need a large presence in the top 5-10…. the importance of finishing points varies a bit from week to week based on tournament scoring and ownership….if 0.68% Scott Langley comes in 2nd and Max Williams-SonHoma comes in 8th for $6400 there’s a bit more leniency here… but if the leader board is a bunch of guys even your local course Golf Pro has heard of before like Rickie Fowler or Phil Mickelson then you can bet you’re going to need several of them…

    3) The “Bonus Boys” – These are the guys that don’t finish top 5-10 but may as well have because they filled up the sheet with Eagles 20+ birdies, birdie streaks, etc…. usually these arent necessarily the BOFR or the AURO70 types… or they woulda finished top 5-10 with all them birddogs…. the BOFR and AURO70 arent guys we are really targeting because invariably Bill Haas, Jim Furyk, or Tiger Woods will make 1 bogey and 17 pars one day and blow all those bonuses while finishing 52nd in the tournament and beocming total dead dawgs…. the Bonus boys a lot of times aren’t super expensive and thats how they Snoop Dawg their way into the Honey Hole even without the big finishing points… these are usually your midrange priced guys whose 95 FPS are still good for their salary…

    I guess there is a 4th wave that sometimes find their way into Winning Lineups… These guys aren’t official members of the “Honey Hole” they are just “Plain Janes’ that are allowed in the club that week when invited as a guest by the other members…

    Like say Fowler is the winner, Casey/Kim/Stallings are the top5-10 guys, and Mickelson is the Bonus Boy that week…. they get to invite one guest maybe its Russell Knox, Brandt Snedeker, Chalkie Chez, or Patrick Reed….

    No one talks to these guys inside hte club they just stand in the corner and sip their Chardonnay and are happy they are invited and get to ogle the women and everything.

    They aren’t the reason you won but they did prevent you from losing. They are the ones that end up DD’ing everyone home from the party and thats why they get invited back into the lineup next time instead of some lush you invited last week like Chesson Hadley who drank 26 beers, threw up in the bathroom, and hit on the 17 year old hostess whose father is in Rotary Club with you. You keep bringing that guy back and you’ll lose access to the Honey Hole yourself, you hear me?!

  • smallANDflaccid

    You guys ever just wonder what is on mtdurahm’s mind?

  • shadowchap1978

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    You guys ever just wonder what is on mtdurahm’s mind?

  • dangasin

    ok phil lets wrap this up, i need the Genesis salaries

  • Dunzor

    @mtdurham said...

    Si Woo Kim

    Scott Piercy

    Tony Finau

    Paul Casey

    Scott Stallings (not familiar enough with him other than the PGA screwing him on TRT suspension or whatever)

    Finau aside since as you said, pretty sure you know his style. Piercy / Casey / Si Woo are all pretty similar style players, when on their game they are 3 of the better iron players (though Si Woo is the most inconsistent) and all 3 also suffer from a wonky putter that comes and goes. None of the 3 are super long off the tee either (though Casey is best there) so often the 3 of them are best used on slightly shorter or less than driver courses and they also tend to perform better mostly on POA or Bermuda since they are tougher to putt on for everyone and evens out their bad days a bit more.

    I don’t know enough about Stallings game myself to give a real good primer on him though BIF seems to peg him a bit better so he may be able to chime in

  • dangasin

    @mtdurham said...

    1) The Winner – In any GPP you’re always gonna need the winner… forget everything else.. you need to start with identifying guys you think can win the tournament…. and REALLY focus on guys who can win the tournament who aren’t obvious as crap like the guy who won last week, the odds on favorite, the guy who won last year, etc… because other people are going to play them too and almost always overestimate their current year’s win equity…..

    The 2018 season winners From 2/28/18 forward: Thomas, mcilroy, Simpson, Casey, Watson, Garnett, Landry, Reed, Kodiara, Day, Wise, Koepka, Rose, Bryson, DJ, Koepka, Watson, Kim, Merritt, Molinari, Thomas, Putnam, Snedeker, Bryson, Bradley, Woods

    IMO the ratio of obvious as crap winners to non obvious as crap winners is really high.

  • Kingspark35

    Well I guess we now have our answer to the must pick / must fade dj question.

    His below par (chuckles) performance (t45) was one key factor for all of us.

    Was it jet lag / winning & appearance money in Saudi Arabia that caused it ?

    Probably a bit of each.

  • dangasin

    @Kingspark35 said...

    Well I guess we now have our answer to the must pick / must fade dj question.

    His below par (chuckles) performance (t45) was one key factor for all of us.

    Was it jet lag / winning & appearance money in Saudi Arabia that caused it ?

    Probably a bit of each.

    I am a sucker for picking DJ

  • Kingspark35

    Turning now to Chesson Hadley.

    See, I can use his name now without throwing the toys out of the pram.

    I guess I should have looked a lot more at his downside.

    As you have probably gathered, I’m a big fan of gifs.

    Partly info, partly fun and partly aide-memoire.

  • HunkerToe

    @lfn1992 said...

    Congrats HT! A tremendous battle in the Happy meal.

    Thanks – close until the end! Day and Gay with the late birdies to put me over the top. Still sweating Phil a bit this morning as I can move up another $25 in the Mayo contest with just 2 pars to get the BOFR bonus.

  • BrowInLockerRoom

    Who else is looking for Casey to eject here to close this out.

  • WVUDoss

    Saying having a 6/6 isn’t necessary to cash is like saying it’s possible to get a first down on 4th and 40.

    Sure, it’s possible, but I like my chance a hell of a lot more if it’s a 4th and 1. Not even factoring in the extra Saturday round everyone got.

  • ElSlappo

    I would very much like for Casey to lose a couple of balls or otherwise defile himself on these last couple of holes.

  • BrowInLockerRoom

    @WVUDoss said...

    Saying having a 6/6 isn’t necessary to cash is like saying it’s possible to get a first down on 4th and 40.

    Sure, it’s possible, but I like my chance a hell of a lot more if it’s a 4th and 1. Not even factoring in the extra Saturday round everyone got.

    Its also unprecedented to have such a low 6 for 6 percentage week after week.

    Will be interesting to see if it continues. It may be sustainable with all these young talented guys just making the fields overall stronger.

  • timusbr

    slow play is a question, another I have is why are only 2 players left with 2 holes remaining and 1 with a + putt. I think this is a definition of slow play.

  • BrowInLockerRoom

    I’m guessing the shot link team isnt out for the final 2 holes…

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