PGA FORUM

  • poppaspicks

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    What are you doing?

    Not that its a concern to the geniuses occupying the C suite at DK, but I’m making my small voice heard with my volume this week. It’d be nice if others in the industry with a louder voice would take a stand as well.

    This week is absolutely ridiculous in regards to pricing. Even more so than normal as they continue to outdo themselves. It comes as no surprise that a company that has done so poorly in growing the industry over the last 2+ years, continues to shit the bed when opportunity presents itself. Anyone with an IQ above 34 could see that the largest opportunity for growth in the major offerings would be golf.

    Problems:

    Why continue to give shit pricing thus ruining both the game and enjoyment aspects? Why continue to suck the life out of the avg player by giving them a near zero shot at being profitable with the terrible tournament payout structures?

    Answers:

    CONSISTENCY in pricing. Randomly making MAJOR odds vs salary mistakes is a joke. It’s clear that there’s no set rhyme or reason much less a decent algorithm. It leads to making the game all about taking incredibly sub optimal plays, in order to be optimal. Obviously game theory plays a large role but this pricing makes it all about game theory and near zero about accurate projections.

    Make the payout structure something along the lines of 10-15% to first and tapered down to a total payout of max 15-20% of the field. I get it that the numbers show its better to rake players back and forth by these ridiculous min cashes, but at least give options for those of us who are conscious of the minutia. I know this has been hammered over and over for years but the average person needs to understand the importance. For those that do, give us a large $33 or $333 with a decent payout structure and just see how well its received. Just once. Try it.

    /rant

  • RangerC

    100% correct.

    There is zero quality control in the pricing (hundreds of thousands in rake per slate and they can’t be bothered to have one intern check to see that Martin Pillar and Andrew Putnam are 7600 while Russell Henley, Russell Knox, GMac, Horschel and Aaron Wise are all 6600-6700). Hmm… I can get Eric Axley or zero-cuts Sang-Moon Bae for 7400 or DROP to 7000-6900 and get Austin Cook, RCB, Bryson, Kokrak… literally 1/3rd of the field is unplayable. DFS golf used to be the best big GPP sport because almost everyone was playable. You could take a guy like Eric Axley at 5000 and if he was the cheapest guy through the cut you could have a unique 6/6 combo of top guys (I was in 10th in the Drive the Green 2.5 years ago with Steven Alker because he was 5500 and unlocked a Spieth/ZJ combo at John Deere). Now there’s zero reason to ever play a guy like that since DK raised the floor and continually puts top 50 players a few hundred off the minimum.

    The other major problem (agree 100% with payout – got T20th in the DtG at Farmers for a whopping $850) is that DK now barely offers any options for midtier players who want to play 50-150 LUs (which is basically required to cover a decent core in DKs payout structure). So I can play 20 in the DtG but then basically have nowhere else to play below $33 (not going to do 20 in DtG and 40 across the other little contests so I can go on life tilt when my LU in the $1 wins 1K instead of 100K). I used to enter 50-150 in the $3 and cover most of the single entry/3max for $250-500 per slate. Now I’m maybe playing $100 with my 20 LUs.

    EDIT: Take it back… this pricing is SOO BAD that literally 40 guys are playable (and you can maybe use 20 more as one-offs if you were doing 150 LUS)

  • Aparisi33

    I literally just looked at dk wondering what’s going on with pricing then came here to see if there was an answer

  • TheRyanFlaherty

    Hmmm…I was set to play less this week as well, but if you’re playing less than maybe I should up my entries as I’ll have a much better shot at winning some of my quarter contests.
    Only half kidding. Noticed the name and realized it’s one I always see populating the top…anyways…

    I do agree, but I also think the potential issue is that DK’s sees this sort of pricing as a way to hook players. They want to make it seem easier for casual players. They want you to think you found some sort of amazing play with minimal effort. They want obvious plays at similar prices to entice you to build more lineups.
    I think what we see as a problem is seen by them as their strategy. It seems both sites want to make it less skillful and more of a lotto.
    I can’t believe it but FanDuel now has the crazy right pricing the past couple weeks (or at least that seems to the the case)

    And I double, triple, infinite agree on the structure stuff. I mentioned in the PGA thread last week that for a player such as myself I’m not even sure it’s worth making more than a lineup or two anymore. With the minimum cash not even x2 and needing like a top 6% score or better to make more than a couple bucks it’s become nearly impossible for a semi-casual lower stakes player such as myself to be profitable. It’s just continually gotten more frustrating of late.

  • dbullsfan

    Call me crazy but I don’t mind it and if anything kinda like the pricing like this when there are at least 4 or 5 top golfers in the field. By having quite a few “mispriced” players down at the bottom they actually spread out ownership quite a bit more. Now you have the option of going stars and scrubs with multiple combinations both up top and at the bottom along with going with more of a balanced approach. Just like with last week that will most likely lead to very few golfers over that 25% ownership especially at the top as it will be spread out between everyone and than similar down at the bottom. I’m sure 1 or 2 guys will creep up toward 25-30 but not many. If all the good plays were priced up and nothing enticing at all was sub 7.5k it would tighten ownership tremendously and there will always be 1 or 2 guys down low who will pop on stats and than they end up 40% owned or everyone just goes balanced and 2 or 3 guys in the 8-9K range end up 35-40% owned.

    Combine that with the fact that DK has its best GPP as a 20 entry max than you have a much more balanced and “fair” field as the big guns won’t be able to just load in the top 35 point per dollar plays into a lineup builder and spit out 150 lineups so you actually have to dig in and make stands and fade what seem to be really good plays or really good golfers.

  • RangerC

    @dbullsfan said...

    By having quite a few “mispriced” players down at the bottom they actually spread out ownership quite a bit more.

    Take the quotations off of “mispriced”. You can spend your 50K on Eric Axley ($7400, 500-1), Martin Piller ($7600, 200-1), Andrew Putnam ($7600, 300-1), Seamus Power ($7600, 200-1), an out-of-form Adam Scott and Jordan Spieth (have to use all the $$) OR go DJ (5.5-1), Rory (9-1), RCB (60-1). Cook (66-1), Henley (90-1) and Knox (90-1). Nothing like stacking the top 2 players (IMO) in the field while your worst play is 33rd in win odds. You know what would spread ownership out more? A pricing structure that actually made more than 40ish players viable.

    If you misprice a bunch of players down below it literally KILLS the entire midrange. Last year Graham DeLaet was like 7800 at Phoenix and Berger and Oost were sub 7K (Kuchar below DeLaet too, he was mid 7s). I played DeLaet at no ownership, he got a t9 and it HURT every LU I had him in because every one would have been better off taking the obvious misprices and using $$ to go up to Hideki/Fowler. There’s a fairly good chance that this pricing structure kills off 95% of plays between 9900-7400 (if 2 of the top 5 go off everyone who didn’t stack them with the 20+ good plays between 7300-6600 is dead).

  • dbullsfan

    @RangerC said...

    Take the quotations off of “mispriced”. You can spend your 50K on Eric Axley ($7400, 500-1), Martin Piller ($7600, 200-1), Andrew Putnam ($7600, 300-1), Seamus Power ($7600, 200-1), an out-of-form Adam Scott and Jordan Spieth (have to use all the $$) OR go DJ (5.5-1), Rory (9-1), RCB (60-1). Cook (66-1), Henley (90-1) and Knox (90-1). Nothing like stacking the top 2 players (IMO) in the field while your worst play is 33rd in win odds. You know what would spread ownership out more? A pricing structure that actually made more than 40ish players viable.

    thing is though just because you are top 33 in the world doesnt mean your gurranteed anything on a week to week basis. Every week there are quite a few guys in the top 20 and usually a couple in the top 10 that are sub 5% owned, even last week when a bunch of complaining about pricing was happening as well. By opening up the ability to go stars and scrubs as well as balanced you allow for all kinds of ways to be contrarian and try to find less popular plays that may have an advantage and a particular course or is playing better than his recent results might be showing.

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    So since pricing is so soft, then everyone should win no problem right? No way everyone plays the “obvious” misplaced plays and have a bad week.

  • DirtysBurgers

    @sochoice said...

    So since pricing is so soft, then everyone should win no problem right? No way everyone plays the “obvious” misplaced plays and have a bad week.

    This is the exact problem. DK is forcing you to play the obvious misplaced plays. I am an average (at best) player but I like putting in the research for golf since there is only one tournament a week. On Saturday night I start my research (I am a party animal) and by Monday, before the pricing comes out, I have a list of lower tier golfers who,based on correlative stats, have a decent chance at doing well at this tournament. This week, as an example, Cody Gribble was a golfer, who I pegged to have a decent week.

    But then pricing comes out, and Gribble is priced at $7,500 on DraftKings, while much higher ranked golfers like Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Russell Henley are priced significantly lower. Gribble is the 329th ranked golfer in the world. How can I justify playing him over 21st ranked golfer Cabrera-Bello when Gribble is $600 MORE EXPENSIVE! It means that by taking a much worse golfer, I have to play another worse golfer at the top. Henley, the who is ranked 56th in the world is $900 cheaper than Gribble. How does this make any sense?

    The solution is really for serious DFS golf players to start taking their action to FanDuel, who is at least taking pricing seriously. Using my example above, Gribble is priced at $7,500 on FanDuel (ironically the same price as DK, but you have $50,000 cap on DK and $60,000 on FD for 6 golfers) while Henley is priced at $9,300 and Cabrera-Bello is $10,200. So, I am actually being rewarded by finding a value play in a guy like Gribble by having more cap money to play with on other players.

  • bigez952

    @DirtysBurgers said...

    This is the exact problem. DK is forcing you to play the obvious misplaced plays.

    How is DK forcing you to take anyone? Henley has been playing some terrible golf lately as you can see by his MC, MC, and T17 out of 30 so far this year. Just because he is cheap on Draftkings doesn’t mean he is all of a sudden going to figure out his issues and not miss his third cut in a row. Spieth also missed the cut last week at $11,400 so just because you can pick low priced golfers to pay up for the top priced guys doesn’t mean your automatically going to score tons of points and beat everyone. World Golf Rankings are given over a 2 year period and are nearly worthless in DFS since guys like Henley are still going to keep a high ranking even though he has been playing bad golf these past 2 months.

    There are no Tiger Wood’s in his prime golfers anymore who are auto-locks to make every single cut so if you feel like Gribble is a potential value your better off playing him at Draftkings with 0 ownership and if he does pull off a win and the chalk misses your will be way ahead of the field.

  • dbullsfan

    I could be completely wrong and if he makes the cut than so be it but I want nothing to do with Henley, his overall stats aren’t bad but they look significantly better because of his putting and he has traditionally not been a good and in fact one of the worst putters on POA greens out there. I hope he somehow ends up near 10%, I don’t see anyway it is higher than that. Give me Bryson, Vaughn Taylor, or Tom Hoge all day over him down there in pricing.

  • dbullsfan

    @bigez952 said...

    How is DK forcing you to take anyone? Henley has been playing some terrible golf lately as you can see by his MC, MC, and T17 out of 30 so far this year. Just because he is cheap on Draftkings doesn’t mean he is all of a sudden going to figure out his issues and not miss his third cut in a row. Spieth also missed the cut last week at $11,400 so just because you can pick low priced golfers to pay up for the top priced guys doesn’t mean your automatically going to score tons of points and beat everyone. World Golf Rankings are given over a 2 year period and are nearly worthless in DFS since guys like Henley are still going to keep a high ranking even though he has been playing bad golf these past 2 months.

    There are no Tiger Wood’s in his prime golfers anymore who are auto-locks to make every single cut so if you feel like Gribble is a potential value your better off playing him at Draftkings with 0 ownership and if he does pull off a win and the chalk misses your will be way ahead of the field.

    exactly, it would be like DK “forcing” us to take Eric Decker all year in football at ~4K because over the past 2 years he has been a top 25 fantasy receiver even though this year he really wasn’t doing much and was in an offense that didn’t exploit his strengths.

    I’ll give that RCB is priced way too low, but that is always going to happen with 1 or 2 guys, especially sometimes with the guys who play mainly on the Euro tour. Even that being said it doesn’t mean you have to play them. If RCB is 20% owned and Bryson ends up 8% owned I’m probably going to be 30% Bryson and 0% RCB because of game theory.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    All aboard the fade RCB and Henley!!! People act like there is some sort of PGA formula to start printing out money. It just doesn’t happen because any guy can MC or win the tourney. Well maybe not anybody but you get the point. Looking forward to fading the mispriced low guys.

  • ecb34

    Nothing is guaranteed in golf. Last week, all everyone did was talk about Spieth and Mats and they both let down. Granted, Mats WD, but that’s part of the randomness of PGA.

    I don’t believe Vegas odds are the gospel, if they were why not optimize them and win?

    Remember, they are creating odds to WIN. RCB, Henley, JB Holmes, these guys rarely win tournaments. That’s not to say they cant be good value, but 60/1 and 90/1 odds aren’t exactly that great at

  • bigez952

    I hope to God Henley is 30-40% owned as I have played him twice this year and he has led me to two losing weeks. He four putted from 25’ on a par 3 to miss the cut Friday at the Sony in Hawaii. Sure he has potential to figure out his putting issues this week and not miss his third cut in a row but I have 0 problem fading him and hope everyone else is “forced to play him”.

  • DirtysBurgers

    @hautalak said...

    All aboard the fade RCB and Henley!!! People act like there is some sort of PGA formula to start printing out money. It just doesn’t happen because any guy can MC or win the tourney. Well maybe not anybody but you get the point. Looking forward to fading the mispriced low guys

    What you are saying is accurate and that is fine. RCB has missed the cut two times in a row at this event and Henley has not been in form lately. But DK really does make certain guys unplayable.

    Let me use the Gribble example again. Pre-tournament, I rank all players before salaries came out. Gribble was ranked 38th on my list. Pretty good ranking for the 329th ranked player in the world. I was all set to have him in 25% of my lineups at min-price. But then salaries come out and he is way overpriced at $7,500.

    Maybe it is true that DK is not forcing me to play RCB and Henley – but I really do not see how I can play a guy like Gribble when he is more expensive than those guys plus JB Holmes (4th place 2 weeks ago, 6 top 25s in last 11 starts at this event). Gribble is 275/1 to win the event while Holmes is 61/1. With the way that DK priced certain golfers, it literally makes no sense to play them.

    In any event, DK is probably doing me a favor since Gribble sucks and will for sure be in last place at the end of Saturday. But I don’t think there is any dispute that there is something wrong with DK’s pricing algorithm.

  • RangerC

    @DirtysBurgers said...

    Maybe it is true that DK is not forcing me to play RCB and Henley – but I really do not see how I can play a guy like Gribble when he is more expensive than those guys plus JB Holmes (4th place 2 weeks ago, 6 top 25s in last 11 starts at this event). Gribble is 275/1 to win the event while Holmes is 61/1. With the way that DK priced certain golfers, it literally makes no sense to play them.

    Exactly right. If you like a guy like Gribble there is no reason to play him as he might not even pay off his price with a top 5 – instead of say, playing him in 3 LUs at a cost of $12, put $4 on him to win ($1100 payoff, more than 16th in DtG), $4 on on a top 5 (50-1) and $4 on a top 10(25-1). Pretty much 2/3rds of the field is better bet than played in a DK LU.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @DirtysBurgers said...

    What you are saying is accurate and that is fine. RCB has missed the cut two times in a row at this event and Henley has not been in form lately. But DK really does make certain guys unplayable.

    Let me use the Gribble example again. Pre-tournament, I rank all players before salaries came out. Gribble was ranked 38th on my list. Pretty good ranking for the 329th ranked player in the world. I was all set to have him in 25% of my lineups at min-price. But then salaries come out and he is way overpriced at $7,500.

    Maybe it is true that DK is not forcing me to play RCB and Henley – but I really do not see how I can play a guy like Gribble when he is more expensive than those guys plus JB Holmes (4th place 2 weeks ago, 6 top 25s in last 11 starts at this event). Gribble is 275/1 to win the event while Holmes is 61/1. With the way that DK priced certain golfers, it literally makes no sense to play them.

    In any event, DK is probably doing me a favor since Gribble sucks and will for sure be in last place at the end of Saturday. But I don’t think there is any dispute that there is something wrong with DK’s pricing algorithm.

    Yeah I’ll never deny pricing can sharpen up. Like all have said I think a lot is just laziness. They price the guys they want to and arbitrarily throw salaries at other guys.

    (Putting on my tin foil hat) The fix is in from DK. They know somebody like Gribble and whoever is “overpriced” is gonna win and wants nobody to play them. Sometimes it just works so perfect for the rake to win in the end. Obviously I do not think that’s happening but it’s funny how these “overpriced” guys payoff their salary as often as they do.

    Just wait for major pricing. Good luck this week and I hope things work out well for all of us! At least everybody gets 3 rounds so that’s one less worry.

  • bigez952

    @hautalak said...

    At least everybody gets 3 rounds so that’s one less worry.

    That is not even guaranteed if you pick someone who WD’s like JJ Spaun or Matsuyama did last week.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @bigez952 said...

    That is not even guaranteed if you pick someone who WD’s like JJ Spaun or Matsuyama did last week.

    Very true! Seems somewhat likely, especially if somebody’s out to a bad start. 6-7 hour rounds can’t be fun.

  • RangerC

    @bigez952 said...

    How is DK forcing you to take anyone? Henley has been playing some terrible golf lately as you can see by his MC, MC, and T17 out of 30 so far this year.

    Henley has missed 2 cuts by ONE shot each and before that he had like 13 in a row made (hard to see how 17th of 34 in ToC field is terrible either, just average).

    The point isn’t just that there’s Henley at 6600 and RCB at 6900 – if that was the case you could play the fade, hope they are 20-30% owned and MC. The problem is that there is also Kirk and Stricker at 7100, Cook and Piercy at 7000, Bryson and Kokrak at 6900, Knox at 6700, and Horschel and McDowell at 6600 (plus another 5 or so OK plays like McGirt, Wise, etc). Playing the midrange and fading all these guys is suicide (at least some of them will hit). Look at last year’s Genesis Open – Koepka was 7300 or something like that, he missed the cut BUT three of the other super missed priced players (Holmes, Steele at 7200 and Pieters at 6700) all hit and if you didn’t play them + DJ you were totally dead. Pebble last year was largely the same way – Furyk missed the cut but the other two terrible misprices (Lowry and Stricker) were in 80% of GPP top 50 LUs.

    Let’s say you really like James Hahn or Nick Taylor – you CAN’T play them because they have to significantly beat out 20+ golfers of similar talent who are priced up to $1800 less. Even a top 5 isn’t necessarily enough (if Hahn is T5 but Knox is T-10 at 6700 all your Hahn teams could be dead to stacks of two top players + value)

  • Pats7914

    • 74

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #98

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Glad to see a thread on this. Pricing is awful this week. Maybe its exploitable in some ways and sure, the lower priced mispriced guys can miss the cut and golf is a high variance sport. But making like 60% of the player field unplayable makes for a terrible customer experience for people who actually care about playing DFS golf. When I build lineups on FantasyDraft, not everyone is perfectly priced, but I feel like i have to make real decisions about both players and roster construction. With DK pricing, unless Im MMEng one of the real lottos, its basically a pickem contest using like 50 players. It just reeks of laziness and DGAF.

  • Dunzor

    I think the key is not that there are some good guys or big name golfers priced around 6800-6900, the problem is that they moved the floor for pricing up to like 6500-6600 instead of the closer to 5000 that is used to be. If they put the floor back down they could still leave guys like RCB and Henley where they are but then they could put the web.com and random qualifiers down in that 5K range and make it an actual choice if you want to jam in DJ/Spieth and take a shot in the 5k range or if you stick with the 6800ish guys that you know.

    Would I prefer if they tweaked their algorithm a bit so that you don’t have top 75 OGWR guys priced lower than no name 500 ranked guy? Yes
    Is that the ultimate problem? No…..just lower the floor back down and move the crappy guys lower to that floor

  • FantasyDraftSupport

    • FantasyDraft Representative

    @DirtysBurgers said...

    The solution is really for serious DFS golf players to start taking their action to FanDuel

    “The solution is really for serious DFS golf players to start taking their action to FantasyDraft”

    Corrected for you.

  • dbullsfan

    @Dunzor said...

    I think the key is not that there are some good guys or big name golfers priced around 6800-6900, the problem is that they moved the floor for pricing up to like 6500-6600 instead of the closer to 5000 that is used to be. If they put the floor back down they could still leave guys like RCB and Henley where they are but then they could put the web.com and random qualifiers down in that 5K range and make it an actual choice if you want to jam in DJ/Spieth and take a shot in the 5k range or if you stick with the 6800ish guys that you know.

    Would I prefer if they tweaked their algorithm a bit so that you don’t have top 75 OGWR guys priced lower than no name 500 ranked guy? Yes
    Is that the ultimate problem? No…..just lower the floor back down and move the crappy guys lower to that floor

    this 100%

  • DirtysBurgers

    @FantasyDraftSupport said...

    “The solution is really for serious DFS golf players to start taking their action to FantasyDraft”

    Corrected for you.

    Do you guys take Canadian players? If so, I should give you a try. I have only heard great things to be honest.

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