STRATEGY FORUM

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  • OttawaCityMadman

    Thought it was time to start a new thread for the new year of Tennis and the first Major. Lets get at it…

    First round match Odds:

    ATP

    WTA

  • Extravaganza

    Every now and then, someone like Cal_Naughton will do a little write-up on the blog, but there is not much here. Honestly, the best one you’ll probably find is from Draftkings itself:

    https://www.draftkings.com/playbook/daily-research/australian-open-picks-top-fantasy-tennis-targets-values-day-2

    It looks like a decent starting point, but I would definitely take it with a grain of salt. For instance, the omission of the Raonic and Kyrgios is a bit curious to me since their big serves tend to make them daily fantasy magnets.

  • GoldenWolf87

    @Extravaganza said...

    Every now and then, someone like Cal_Naughton will do a little write-up on the blog, but there is not much here. Honestly, the best one you’ll probably find is from Draftkings itself:

    https://www.draftkings.com/playbook/daily-research/australian-open-picks-top-fantasy-tennis-targets-values-day-2

    It looks like a decent starting point, but I would definitely take it with a grain of salt. For instance, the omission of the Raonic and Kyrgios is a bit curious to me since their big serves tend to make them daily fantasy magnets.

    Here are my underdogs for today’s slate. Again anything can happen in TEN so take it with a grain of suspicion.

    Bradley Klahn:Klahn has nothing to lose today agaisnt Chung who has being performing quite badly this season and last year. If there might be an upset then it would be Klahn winning the sets straight. Chung has a long difficult road of trying to climb up if he should win today’s slate.

    Eugenie Bouchard:The Canadian is facing up agaisnt Peng not quite of a impressive start for Peng after being defeated in a game a while back. Do take these players at your own risk.

    Worth considering Alex Bolt.

    https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/australian-open-betting/australian-open-predictions-betting-preview-day-2-tipsheet-bolt-v-sock-140119-778.html

    For Klahn vs Chung i am not sure what kind of fantasy value they would have though.
    But if Klahn plays well he should hit the aces good.

  • Yeoman

    @Extravaganza said...

    For instance, the omission of the Raonic and Kyrgios is a bit curious to me since their big serves tend to make them daily fantasy magnets.

    Does ace-chasing work? My general sense is that you can’t win a GPP with a lot of 7-6 sets and I try to avoid matches with the really big servers like Isner. Opelka won his match and hit 40 aces last night and if I added it right he only would have given you 67.5. That’s worse than Bautista who hit 34 fewer aces and took an extra set to close it out but had five break bonuses and didn’t double fault.

  • Extravaganza

    I see aces as basically free points, though they tend to draw high ownership so there is definitely merit to fading them. The 0 double fault bonus is great but pretty unreliable. Breaks are also great, but very fickle as well except for heavy favorites.

  • Supersharpie

    Looks like there is gonna be a whole lotta overlay in the big $5 DK contest.

  • scsa1998

    did dfs tennis beome legal in ny?

  • sports667

    The men obviously have more potential even with receivng less points per game if they win in straight sets but I always pick the asshole who wins but double faults like 13 times for the first time in years. Going at it hard again after a tough first night. Max M for all the monies.

  • Ndepompei

    @sports667 said...

    The men obviously have more potential even with receivng less points per game if they win in straight sets but I always pick the asshole who wins but double faults like 13 times for the first time in years. Going at it hard again after a tough first night. Max M for all the monies.

    With you on Marterer feel like he should come in lower owned too with people gravitating towards bigger names

  • nickbloggerman

    Is the $5 contest even gonna half-fill? Damnit wish I was more a high roller in times like this, would just jam 20 lineups in there.

  • sports667

    @nickbloggerman said...

    Is the $5 contest even gonna half-fill? Damnit wish I was more a high roller in times like this, would just jam 20 lineups in there.

    theres a lot of people lurking that will get it close to full by 815. prob ends up at around 19k entrants

  • skleni

    It is a pity that they are still having so much trouble filling the contests…what does prevent dfs tennis from being more popular?

  • gunthie176

    @skleni said...

    It is a pity that they are still having so much trouble filling the contests…what does prevent dfs tennis from being more popular?

    casual american fans know like 4 tennis players, tops.

    not a team sport, not on ESPN cept the grand slam events.

  • Yeoman

    I was assuming the overlay was a marketing tool. They haven’t been having any trouble filling small contests, but suddenly fielding one with 100 times the usual number of entries? And running satellites for it in every sport for a week prior? I think they’re hoping to lure in people who are regular players in other sports but haven’t tried the tennis yet. And there’s nothing like “12k/25k” half an hour before lock for getting people to click that button.

  • Yeoman

    @gunthie176 said...

    not a team sport, not on ESPN cept the grand slam events.

    It’s not quite that bad—the bigger tournaments like Indian Wells and Cincinnati are on ESPN every year, and most people have Tennis Channel available on their cable.

    But it’s true that ESPN’s coverage is very, very heavily weighted towards a handful of stars, to the point that the scores they show on the downscreen scroll during other sporting events tend to be something like “AUSTRALIAN OPEN: Federer, Sharapova win, Murray loses 5-set match.” You’d never even know who he lost to. Hell, I’m guessing a fair percentage of the people who stayed up and watched his match last night don’t remember the name of the player he lost to.

  • Cal_Naughton_Jr

    Yeah sorry I really wanted to do articles for this week but been between job hunting and working a bunch of odd jobs with friends I had no time. Yesterday was the day to really fade the chalk I think every player above 21% ownership lost

    Rublev Sandgren etc….

  • Yeoman

    @Extravaganza said...

    I see aces as basically free points, though they tend to draw high ownership so there is definitely merit to fading them. The 0 double fault bonus is great but pretty unreliable. Breaks are also great, but very fickle as well except for heavy favorites.

    I don’t look at it that way. If a Niculescu or Errani plays a 6-4 6-4 match the loser probably got at least four breaks of serve, the winner at least six. If Isner plays a 6-4 6-4 match you can be sure there were precisely two, total (which is probably more than you could have expected going in unless he was a heavy favorite or underdog).

  • Cal_Naughton_Jr

    If Buzarnescu is healthy finally I think she could absolutely clean set Williams today

  • Yeoman

    @Cal_Naughton_Jr said...

    Yesterday was the day to really fade the chalk I think every player above 21% ownership lost

    Rublev Sandgren etc….

    Federer was heavily owned. But in the $1 (the only one I downloaded, unfortunately) the top eight by ownership were

    1. Sandgren (L)
    2. Federer
    3. Norrie (L)
    4. Edmund (L)
    5. Bencic
    6. Rublev (L)
    7. de Minaur
    8. Struff (L)

    That’s pretty bad.

  • skleni

    Really no idea though why a bad form Edmund was chalk against Berdych…
    M. Zverev seems to be too cheap today….however, he did not play for 3 months.

  • someclevername

    I haven’t played dfs tennis for a little while now but threw one lineup in tonight for sh*ts & giggles. GL everyone

  • tristanwolf

    well we’ve all already beat 7k entries in the $5, probably never have a better shot at winning 20k than this tourney! good luck everyone let’s bring home some forum winners!

  • hendog

    • 556

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #79

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2017 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    I’m actually pretty excited for this slate; too bad I’ll end up sleeping through most of it.

  • Yeoman

    Svitolina my lowest-owned player? That’s unexpected.

  • Yeoman

    Kanepi less than 3% is also a surprise. I honestly thought my Kudermetova play would be a less-owned pivot.

  • nickbloggerman

    Raonic higher than I thought, don’t think he’s gonna give a GPP winning score regardless of outcome.

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