I’ve been playing NBA dfs off and on for the past 3 years and regardless of how much time I put into my daily research, I am just horrible at it and I can’t figure out where I’m going wrong!
I gave up on playing GPP’s this year and have been concentrating on low stakes head to heads until I can occasionally hit 300 on Draftkings. I play one head to head for each slate and multiple slates per night – I don’t even come close to hitting 300 though and I’ve lost 12 of my last 14 head to heads… and historically I probably lose about 75% of them.
So where did I go wrong in making my picks for my head to head lineup last night? Are these bad picks or was it just bad luck?
PG – “(player-popup)Jrue Holiday”:/players/jrue-holiday-1073 – 7500 - 19.5
SG – Tyreke Evans – 4200 – 25
SF – Kevin Durant – 9400 – 61.25
PF -Blake Griffin – 9100 -31.75
C – Willie Cauley-Stein – 3600 – 43.5
G – E’Twaun Moore – 3400 -16.25
F – “(player-popup)Michael Kidd-Gilchrist”:/players/michael-kidd-gilchrist-13896 – 4900 – 42
U – Andre Drummond – 7600 – 28.75
Jrue seemed like one of the best bargains at 7500 considering his playing time and historical performances. 38-55 points was what I was expecting out of him… was it Beverly’s defense that I should’ve avoided? I considered that, but Houston’s DVP against guards wasn’t anything that scared me off and I thought the pace of the game would offset any concerns about Bev’s defense.
Tyreke seemed like the best cheap option on the board – Sacramento would need scoring, Affalo was out and Tyreke was likely to get 25 minutes, so hitting 6x his value seemed likely.
Willie and Moore both seemed like good cheap plays who would both play 30 minutes or so and would very likely hit 5x or 6x value which let me pay for two superstars – Durant and Blake – who I anticipated playing a close high scoring game.
Andre Drummond seemed like the 2nd best bargain of the night after Jrue – someone in the mid 7000’s who could easily hit 50 and who had a favorable matchup against Charlotte’s bigs.
Kidd-Gilchrest was another player that seemed under valued at 4,900 and who could easily be expected to hit 6x value,
Were any of these obvious bad decisions or was it just bad luck with Jrue and Drummond scoring 20-30 below what I expected?