NBA FORUM

  • EdwardCc

    I’ve been playing NBA dfs off and on for the past 3 years and regardless of how much time I put into my daily research, I am just horrible at it and I can’t figure out where I’m going wrong!

    I gave up on playing GPP’s this year and have been concentrating on low stakes head to heads until I can occasionally hit 300 on Draftkings.  I play one head to head for each slate and multiple slates per night – I don’t even come close to hitting 300 though and I’ve lost 12 of my last 14 head to heads… and historically I probably lose about 75% of them.

    So where did I go wrong in making my picks for my head to head lineup last night?  Are these bad picks or was it just bad luck?

    I played:
    PG – “(player-popup)Jrue Holiday”:/players/jrue-holiday-1073    – 7500 -    19.5
    SG – Tyreke Evans – 4200 – 25
    SF – Kevin Durant – 9400 – 61.25
    PF -Blake Griffin – 9100 -31.75
    C – Willie Cauley-Stein – 3600 – 43.5
    G – E’Twaun Moore – 3400 -16.25
    F – “(player-popup)Michael Kidd-Gilchrist”:/players/michael-kidd-gilchrist-13896    – 4900 – 42
    U – Andre Drummond – 7600 – 28.75

    Jrue seemed like one of the best bargains at 7500 considering his playing time and historical performances.  38-55 points was what I was expecting out of him… was it Beverly’s defense that I should’ve avoided?  I considered that, but Houston’s DVP against guards wasn’t anything that scared me off and I thought the pace of the game would offset any concerns about Bev’s defense.

    Tyreke seemed like the best cheap option on the board – Sacramento would need scoring, Affalo was out and Tyreke was likely to get 25 minutes, so hitting 6x his value seemed likely.

    Willie and Moore both seemed like good cheap plays who would both play 30 minutes or so and would very likely hit 5x or 6x value which let me pay for two superstars – Durant and Blake – who I anticipated playing a close high scoring game.

    Andre Drummond seemed like the 2nd best bargain of the night after Jrue – someone in the mid 7000’s who could easily hit 50 and who had a favorable matchup against Charlotte’s bigs.  

    Kidd-Gilchrest was another player that seemed under valued at 4,900 and who could easily be expected to hit 6x value,  

    Were any of these obvious bad decisions or was it just bad luck with Jrue and Drummond scoring 20-30 below what I expected?

  • billholler

    Jrue was a terrible play last night. A shooter that wasn’t going to get many shots. Tyreke was another bad play despite his low price because he is still on a minutes restriction. I was all over Griffin last night. He just had a terrible second half.

  • EdwardCc

    Was the thought process of Cousins and Davis inside opening up more shots for Jrue bad? Is it just too risky to take players in a new situation in a head to head?

    It seems like avoiding those situations completely causes me to lose out on the best value guys like WCS

  • mellofellowsu

    @EdwardCc said...

    Was the thought process of Cousins and Davis inside opening up more shots for Jrue bad? Is it just too risky to take players in a new situation in a head to head?

    It seems like avoiding those situations completely causes me to lose out on the best value guys like WCS

    Davis is a usage vacuum already. Add another usage vacuum and that makes Jrue overpriced all of a sudden. Usage is a zero-sum game.

    Add to that he was defended by Beverley last night. Too much resistance to realistically expect him to have a viable DFS score.

  • EdwardCc

    @mellofellowsu said...

    Davis is a usage vacuum already. Add another usage vacuum and that makes Jrue overpriced all of a sudden. Usage is a zero-sum game.

    That is very helpful – thanks!

  • cccalloway

    Biggest problem for me is jrue and Blake. With cousins and brow soaking up so much usage he was way overpriced in that matchup. Especially when rockets can slide Beverley over to guard him.

    On Blake, it’s not that he’s a bad play but I think he was bad for h2h last night. I typically shy away from high priced studs in games where they are massive dogs. Makes for a much better Gpp play instead.

  • Joshmstar

    @billholler said...

    Tyreke was another bad play despite his low price because he is still on a minutes restriction.

    Tyreke wasn’t a bad play. He was expected to play 26-27 minutes and he scores over 1 FPPM. Ideal matchup… should get plenty of usage on this team. He was a very good play.

  • EdwardCc

    @cccalloway said...

    Biggest problem for me is jrue and Blake. With cousins and brow soaking up so much usage he was way overpriced in that matchup. Especially when rockets can slide Beverley over to guard him.

    On Blake, it’s not that he’s a bad play but I think he was bad for h2h last night. I typically shy away from high priced studs in games where they are massive dogs. Makes for a much better Gpp play instead.

    Thanks – I looked at Jrue’s price of 7500 and thought he was a bargain considering his ability to go for high 40s and 50s recently. I never considered that he could actually be overpriced considering the usage changes with Cousins playing.

    Does anyone look at the price changes from game to game and use that in their strategy? Kind of like – if it looks too good to be true, than it probably is?

    The part about superstars in games where they’re a big underdog is interesting too!

  • walkoff9

    • 523

      RG Overall Ranking

    Jrue was a bad play imo. priced as a usage monster, but hes not going to be that anymore. Seems like you took the right approach in taking sacramento guys who will get increased minutes and usage, but then took pelicans who were in the exact opposite situation.

  • yanks250125

    I was all in on Drummond until Nurkic was confirmed. Then spent up to bring in Jrue. Was doomed either way but was thrilled to get Jrue in there in an uptempo game at home.

  • mellofellowsu

    @EdwardCc said...

    Thanks – I looked at Jrue’s price of 7500 and thought he was a bargain considering his ability to go for high 40s and 50s recently. I never considered that he could actually be overpriced considering the usage changes with Cousins playing

    That price was set before Cousins was traded and didn’t account for his role on the team. On FD Holiday’s true worth is now probably between $5.5k to $6k. Probably should avoid him until he’s around that price.

  • jtwfantasy

    I’ve found there is no real strong rhyme or reason as to why Drummond flops or explodes in a perceived good match-up. The volatility is just something you have to embrace when you click his name.

  • sadot88

    I think the problem with your lineup is that it was decently contrarian for a GPP, but that’s not what you want in cash. Holiday I had no interest in against Beverly and with all of his usage gone, plus at the same price you could have had CJ against Orlando or for 200 more Kemba against Detroit’s point guards. You nailed MKG, Evans was good for the price given his usage, matchup, and minutes projection, but I think out of the popular value plays you should have elected for Nurkic over Evans since we had the certainty of knowing he’d be starting and not on any restrictions. Blake and Drummond were strictly GPP for me. You want to generally build your cash lineups based around ‘obvious’ plays, then make like 1 or 2 sensible pivots. I think they were too risky that night. Blake historically is bad against Draymond, plus there was a lot of blowout risk, and Van Gundy clearly hates Andre Drummond.

  • EdwardCc

    Thanks everyone! Lots of good advice in this thread!

    So my head to head lineup last night wasn’t terrible but it was yet another loss. This was for the 8pm, 6 game turbo on DK…

    PG – Westbrook – 13,000 – 73
    SG – Hardaway – 5,700 – 16.5
    SF – TJ Warren – 4,600 – 33.5
    PF – Portis – 5,000 – 19.75
    C – Dirk – 5,500 – 28.75
    G – Clarkson – 4,800 – 35.25
    F – Bazemore – 4,500 – 22.75
    U – Waiters – 6,900 – 40.25

    The final score was 269.75 – which is better than I’ve been averaging but it still wasn’t good enough to win. Does anyone see any obvious flaw in my thinking for these players?

    Paying up for RWB seemed like good choice with enough value players between 4,000-5,000.

    Hardaway was the biggest disappointment of the night – I thought his usage would be considerably higher with Schroeder out of the lineup and I thought he’d play around 34 minutes.

    I thought Warren was a good pick with PJ no longer on the Suns – increased playing time.

    Portis was the other disappointment of the night and he’s a guy that I only picked after reading other people talking about how well he was expected to perform.

    Dirk is someone I often end up drafting because his salary is never too high and he was 40+ upside and is pretty consistent despite the Mavs slow pace.

    Clarkson and Bazemore were similar to Warren – increased usage with no Schroeder and increased playing time with no Lou Williams.

    Waiters seemed like a good value at 6,900 and could be expected to score between 30-45.

    So were those good picks for a head to head? Was I relying on too many 4k and 5k players to hit value?

    Thanks!

  • Njsum1

    I didn’t like Drummond. There was too much value at center to pay up, and he was going against Kaminsky not Zeller.
    Frank plays beyond the arc, so his rebounding was likely to take a dip.

  • EdwardCc

    @Njsum1 said...

    I didn’t like Drummond. There was too much value at center to pay up, and he was going against Kaminsky not Zeller.
    Frank plays beyond the arc, so his rebounding was likely to take a dip.

    Is there any thought to staying away from WCS going against Charlotte tonight for the same reason?

  • sadot88

    I’m wondering, are you also running a search on your opponents before you play them? You want to make sure you’re playing people you’re reasonably sure you can beat

  • JSteele

    The best advice I can give you for cash is to look at the forums and look at who people are talking about and start there. If you agree with the reasoning play them and if you can find a reason to avoid them then do that.

  • Njsum1

    @EdwardCc said...

    Is there any thought to staying away from WCS going against Charlotte tonight for the same reason?

    Looking back, clearly…haha..guess that’s a thing til zeller returns

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