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  • umwoz

    Been on a bit of a cold streak for about 4 nights now and I just wanted to put a question out to more experienced players than myself. Keep in mind I play GPP only.

    When you look back, how do you decide whether you made bad picks, or just had bad luck? I’ll give you an example.

    Two nights ago I played the Columbus top line vs NYR.
    -Atkinson had an unassisted goal and 5 Shots on Goal
    -Jenner had 5 Shots on Goal
    -Dubinsky(who I hoped to benefit from playing with volume shooters) had a measly 1 Shot and 3 Blocked

    This line garnered me only 11 points, not great for a stack. But it’s hard to see if those were bad picks…. or if I just got unlucky.

    This seems to be the theme of my recent cold streak. I get 3-4 points per player with a goalie win, and end up sitting just on the outside of the money.

  • ydomes

    I guess to keep it in perspective, everyone goes through some pretty serious swings in DFS. So I am sure part of the reason for your down swing is the sport’s natural variance.

    Personally, when I look back to see if I made good lineups I try and focus on why I stacked certain lines. For instance, what was your logic behind stacking CBJ 1 against the Rangers? Why did you pick CBJ instead of SJ or Philly? And why CBJ 1 instead of CBJ 2? If I go back though my LU’s and I can definitively say one way or the other why I picked certain lines then I feel pretty confident in my process and know it’s just a matter of time and volume.

    Hope that helps a bit.

  • umwoz

    Thanks for your input.

    You bring up another common trend. Missing out on the “big bang” lines. Like Hornqvists Hat Trick or Schenn’s big night.

    I have a process I feel is sound. Perhaps its more an issue of giving each team their due time.

  • SteveM

    I play NHL GPPs only and I think it’s pretty impossible to determine though any amount of research, which line is going to go off on a given night. So, like a lot of guys here, I always play several of them in lots of different combinations. Each day is like a stock portfolio – based on how many points I expect them to put up as well as their price, I want a certain exposure to this line, maybe a little more of that line, and just a touch of another line, etc. I trust my process in the long run, but the long run can be VERY long. By not trying to pick the BEST line, and instead maybe picking 5 or 10 or 15 lines and hoping that the 2 that will go off the most that day are among them, I save myself having to split hairs agonizing over which line is “better” – line A or line B. Albeit that same issue does raise its head when I’m at the cutoff and have to decide which of 3 contending lines gets the last spot that day. But when I can’t decide sometime I take them all. :-)

    If your process is good your per-line EV playing 1 line should be higher. But if you play several lines your per-line EV should take a small hit but the variance should be lower and you get to the “long run” faster. Of course, if your process is not +EV in the first place then more lines = burning money. But you can test drive it in the $0.25 games if you want.

    Interestingly, on the days I’ve shipped/nearly shipped large field GPPs, it has never been with my top 2 lines (which tend to be chalky anyway) – it’s been with like my #6 paired with my #10. Looking back, I can see why they might have been in my top 10 that day, but it would be a complete lie to say I, or anyone else, somehow “knew” they would outperform Ovi’s line that night. Truth is – I probably had both of those lines paired with Ovi’s line, too. And on the days the chalk comes through, it’s hard to win (since they are so high owned) but I usually manage a small win or at least significant damage control to live to fight another day.

    I don’t recommend this strategy for anyone who isn’t absolutely sure their research process is sound. It can get expensive and the downswings still happen, obviously. Putting in $200 worth of $3 lineups only to see a hatty from some guy you don’t own sucks, and you might only recoup $50. Even worse is when, to use your example, you’re “right” and while you might have both Schenn and Horny on their hatty days, you somehow never got them both into the same lineup. Doh!

  • tasteitsucka

    It’s all luck. You have to guess correctly.

  • fantasybender

    @umwoz said...

    I have a process I feel is sound. Perhaps its more an issue of giving each team their due time.

    Nailed it!

    Short story: A friend of mine asks me who my top stack is every day. For the past week, I have responded NSH2 approximately 4 times. So last night he asks and I tell him that NSH2 is my top stack once again. Now he finally asks me “Just riding NSH2 till they bust, huh?” I take slight offense to the question and respond “No, I am riding them until their coach stops giving them majority PP time alongside top defenders, even if they bust tonight.” When I look back I see they were just OK last night, but they occupied 75% of the PP time and alongside Josi/Weber. I feel good about the decision to use them because it aligned properly with my process, and I know I will be using this line to some extent on Saturday when they play next.

    As for CBJ1, there were a copious amount of safer stacks 2 nights ago (PHI1, PIT1, SJ1, TB1, NYR1 were the obvious ones). I am not saying a contrarian stack is bad, just that you shouldn’t be surprised they didn’t hit and you shouldn’t be worried about it either. Seems like they had a good Corsi and some chances to connect.

    So to directly answer your question, I do look back at past results to determine whether they were bad picks or bad luck. Everyone makes mistakes, and to not look back at your past picks would be obtuse. In my case yesterday, I didn’t just look back at results, I looked back at the NSH PP time to confirm that my underlying theory held water. I hope this helps.

  • Olhausen

    @tasteitsucka said...

    It’s all luck. You have to guess correctly.

    It’s weird how the same people get lucky over and over again.

  • tasteitsucka

    It’s a guessing game.

  • ShowMeYourHITS

    @tasteitsucka said...

    It’s a guessing game.

    So every night you guess? You don’t bother looking at stats or correlations or numbers? You are ranked in the top 1000 on the NHL leaderboard and you’ve gotten to this point with nothing but guessing?

    Each night is up in the air. I get that variance plays a role in success, but to sit here and tell me that you correctly guess each night without any sort of knowledge or research is not believable.

    Please elaborate…

  • mberkowi

    • 2018 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @ydomes said...

    I guess to keep it in perspective, everyone goes through some pretty serious swings in DFS.

    You had a nice upswing on FD last night. Hard not to notice 1 name that didn’t look like the others.

  • tasteitsucka

    You can determine what is most likely to happen. But in the end it is still a guess. Otherwise everyone would be right every night.

  • mberkowi

    • 2018 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    1. Track your results. You need a pretty big sample size before you can take much from this, but look at the % you are cashing, not your ROI. Are you cashing at a good enough clip but no big scores? Or are you just never cashing? I divide my GPP lineups into a few easily definable categories so I can track category A isn’t working or B has had very good results.

    2.Have your rosters analyzed post-mortem. If you post it every day and ask for help, people are going to quickly grow tired. So pick a few players you respect, see who they’re playing and see if you were on the same page. If you’re never on the same page or didn’t consider the guys they played, it’s less likley you’re just unlucky.

    3.Don’t increase your volume until you can get 1 lineup right. A lot of people see high volume players winning and think it’s the answer. It’s not. I know a very good player who recently tried firing100 lineups a slate. His results were not very exciting. It’s really a lot harder to “cover all the bases” then the average player thinks. Even on a 3 game slate like tonight.

  • Dewoc19

    idk, im pretty convinced that this is pure luck and nothing more, but then again i dont ever cash and basically just throw away money every night. theres just way to much to cover for it to be skill based.

    as far as volume goes, a person that only enters 1 or 2 or 3 linueps a night stands no chance of competing in large GPPs. I can only select enough players to cover maybe 5% of the total players in play and i need every player to go off to be anywhere near the top, a mass entry guy cover probably 33% or more of the players and enters any combination of those players, his chances of success are 10 fold to mine. ive not found a single method that has worked for me

  • umwoz

    @Dewoc19 said...

    idk, im pretty convinced that this is pure luck and nothing more, but then again i dont ever cash and basically just throw away money every night. theres just way to much to cover for it to be skill based.

    Out of curiosity. How long have you been playing?

  • glennantz

    My late Daddy told me, “I’d rather be lucky than good” I have no luck so I try to trust my research. I have just started to play hockey DFS and can see that all lines will not work as you think they should but, you have to put together a roster that has some statistical chance of success. Having said all that, in the free roll on FD tonight, I stacked the Leafs, just for fun.

  • Bam79

    @Dewoc19 said...

    a person that only enters 1 or 2 or 3 linueps a night stands no chance of competing in large GPPs

    I’ve won large – if you consider 9000+ entries “large” – GPPs entering 1/2/3 lineups, as I’m sure many, many others have.

  • mberkowi

    • 2018 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @Dewoc19 said...

    a person that only enters 1 or 2 or 3 linueps a night stands no chance of competing in large GPPs.

    This is nonsense. Last night, my FD cash lineup (lineup #1 if I played 1 lineup) put up 50 points and did just fine in GPP. I’ve had plenty of top 10 GPP finishes with my cash lineup. I guess I’m just one of the luckiest guys around.

  • Dewoc19

    @mberkowi said...

    This is nonsense. Last night, my FD cash lineup (lineup #1 if I played 1 lineup) put up 50 points and did just fine in GPP. I’ve had plenty of top 10 GPP finishes with my cash lineup. I guess I’m just one of the luckiest guys around.

    I regard you as more of an expert than a casual player, I’m well aware of who you are to NHL DFS but to the casual guy like me I just don’t have to time for hours of endless research. I don’t work an office job, so I’m not at a computer all day, I work long hours on all different shifts of the day and have 2 young babies to tend to so time is not something I have. I’m generally pretty comfortable with who the good players are and which teams are shit and what aren’t but I’m more of a throw some shit against the wall type player and hope it sticks, I use that expression loosely cause I don’t just randomly throw people out there as I do look into things a bit but I don’t go crazy

    The casual every day player is not gonna be competitive enough to finish high on a regular basis in GPPs. And this is my first year playing any DFS of any sort, I played baseball this past season but not the full year. And as far as luck goes I’ve always said that if it wasn’t for having bad luck I’d have no luck at all, last night started out as a decent night and I watched as one lineup slipped from 400th to 2 tenths out of the money line as the night went on and one other lineup need an Islanders win for it to cash, the chips never seem to go my way, call it not picking correctly or ehatever, but I personally firmly believe there way more luck involved than skill as any given night any line can score goals, any player and any team can beat any team. If it wasn’t based on luck then most of us should be finishing at or near the top frequently

  • BeltWieldindad

    Nobody should “expect to finish high on a regular basis in GPPs”. Maybe its roster construction, maybe its bad plays, but not having 200 lineups isnt the reason the casual player does bad. If it was as easy as just click a bunch of names 200 times everyone would do it and we’d all be rich(based off most people’s thinking). Also thinking its luck not skill that is causing poor performances is a logical fallacy, luck should be helping the casual players where as “skill” would go to the top players that spend a lot of time looking at statistics/analytics etc.

    In order to stand a chance to be competitive in GPPs i would suggest you pick a goalie you think is guaranteed for a win, and just stack 2,3,4,5 whatever lines that you like with each other in a small entry fee GPP so that your BR can withstand the losses. You’ll hit a big cash eventually and should be able to pick up a fair amount of smaller cashes on a more regular basis as well.

  • ivymoose

    I had two big GPP cashes in the past month (one single entry out of 4597 and two entries in a field of 23171, thanks NBA all-star break). It can happen.

  • tvsfrink

    @Dewoc19 said...

    I don’t work an office job, so I’m not at a computer all day

    I work an office job and I’m at a computer all day, but that doesn’t mean I sit there for hours doing research. Quite the opposite – I do my job.

  • Olhausen

    @Bam79 said...

    I’ve won large – if you consider 9000+ entries “large” – GPPs entering 1/2/3 lineups, as I’m sure many, many others have.

    This. My biggest nights have come when I’ve done 5 or less lineup’s in big Gpp’s.

  • ydomes

    @mberkowi said...

    You had a nice upswing on FD last night. Hard not to notice 1 name that didn’t look like the others.

    Thanks, been running well recently. I always check out your lineups on that $25 FD tourney to see if you appraoched the slate in a similar way to me – I like your style!

    Umwoz- I guess that would be another piece of advice; find some players that do well and try and check our their lineups regularly. That way you can gauge what guys thought of slates and the spots they picked for their guys.

  • dailysportreport

    @Dewoc19 said...

    I regard you as more of an expert than a casual player, I’m well aware of who you are to NHL DFS but to the casual guy like me I just don’t have to time for hours of endless research. I don’t work an office job, so I’m not at a computer all day, I work long hours on all different shifts of the day and have 2 young babies to tend to so time is not something I have. I’m generally pretty comfortable with who the good players are and which teams are shit and what aren’t but I’m more of a throw some shit against the wall type player and hope it sticks, I use that expression loosely cause I don’t just randomly throw people out there as I do look into things a bit but I don’t go crazy

    The casual every day player is not gonna be competitive enough to finish high on a regular basis in GPPs. And this is my first year playing any DFS of any sort, I played baseball this past season but not the full year. And as far as luck goes I’ve always said that if it wasn’t for having bad luck I’d have no luck at all, last night started out as a decent night and I watched as one lineup slipped from 400th to 2 tenths out of the money line as the night went on and one other lineup need an Islanders win for it to cash, the chips never seem to go my way, call it not picking correctly or ehatever, but I personally firmly believe there way more luck involved than skill as any given night any line can score goals, any player and any team can beat any team. If it wasn’t based on luck then most of us should be finishing at or near the top frequently

    Obviously those that enter 100, have a better chance of winning that tournament or cashing highly… About 100 times better than those that enter 1 lineup. They also spend 100 times more, and have to recoup 100 times more to break even. I see so many people argue that it’s unfair that people multi enter tournaments, but I don’t understand how it negatively affects anybody. If you enter 1 entry per night, you have 100 nights to win as much as that person does in the one tournament, and you could potentially take first multiple times over those 100 nights, whereas the multi entry player can only get 1st prize out of one of their lineups. Statistically, it is detrimental to play multiple entries in a single tournament, especially considering the prizes are so top heavy. As far as the lineups themselves go, what is to say that you can’t make the same winning lineup as one of the 100 that the multi entry player creates, however it may be created? All things being equal, if you put one entry into a 10,000 player contest each night, you should win one time in 10,000 nights… It shouldn’t really happen all that often.

    Similar to tvsfrink, I also work an office job, and do not sit on the computer and research DFS on the company’s dime. I take about a 40 minute lunch and no breaks, and create my lineups while I eat lunch and/or in the time between when I get home at 6:30 and when the puck drops at 7. I am no pro, and am not up money in the long run, but I cash pretty frequently in GPPs, and only enter 1-4 LU’s per day.

    Lastly, I know it sounds stupid, and others will probably mock me for saying it, but a lot of luck is based on attitude. If you think you’ll lose every night, you more than likely will. The more frustrated and “on tilt” you get, the worse your decision making will get. Use professional golfers for example. Watch them play every weekend. How many of them do you think expect to lose each week? I would say 0. It’s not going to change the universe and reverse your luck, but thinking in terms of winning will lead to positive decision making.

  • lastairbender

    @Dewoc19 said...

    If it wasn’t based on luck then most of us should be finishing at or near the top frequently

    ( If they have the skill)

    Based on what you’ve said you haven’t had success and haven’t cashed high in any gpp. Blaming luck makes no logical sense because you have always seen the same results-losing. Not trying to attack you, but what you are claiming backs up the argument that it is skill based, and you just haven’t gotten there yet

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