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  • CruzinToVictory

    RG Product Coordinator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Hey Grinders,

    I’m extremely excited to announce the release of the Beta version of my personal MLB model! I call it the Complete Rating UtiliZation Model, or CRUZ (I know, I’m so clever!). I’ve been hard at work tweaking and honing this thing all season, and while it’s an ever evolving process, I feel like it’s finally ready for a public beta version.

    Note/Disclaimer: Please remember that this is, in fact, in the early beta stage. I’m releasing it in it’s current form as a free tool to acquire feedback before next MLB season. With that in mind, enjoy!

    You can find these models in the Daily Research console, or you can go directly to the DraftKings version or the FanDuel version.

    There are a ton of factors that go into this model, but here are some of the individual stats and factors that go into each rating:

    • Vegas odds
    • Batter splits (L/R, H/A)
    • Batter stats for each split, including: K%, BB%, ISO, and PFwOBA (this is a stat that takes Park Factors into account when calculating wOBA)
    • Pitcher stats for each split, including: K%, BB%, wOBA allowed, SIERA, Batted Ball profiles (GB%/FB%)
    • Bullpen matchup (ERA, K%, SIERA)
    • Position in the batting order
    • Surrounding wOBA – This stat is unique to my model. It pulls the actual lineup (or projected lineup, if it isn’t confirmed yet), and averages the wOBA of the batter before and after the hitter in question to give an idea of how much support he has around him.

    I also wanted to include a bit more emphasis on the bullpen, as I believe it is often extremely underrated when looking at MLB DFS. So, I’ve partnered up with RG’s own Paul Sporer, who’s resume includes our “Sporer Report” MLB series and the Pitcher Breakdown last season. Paul has an unmatched knowledge of MLB pitching rotations, and every morning, he manually adjust each team’s bullpen rating based on many factors, such as which closers will be available that night.

    Model Types

    At the launch of this beta, we have three different model “types” that weigh each category differently depending on the goal of that model. Long term we will be automating this process so that you can adjust the weights as you see fit, but for now we have three versions:

    • A “Balanced” model (this is the one I personally use the most)
    • A “Cash” model that weighs things like Vegas Odds and batting order more heavily
    • A “GPP” model that weighs high upside stats like ISO more heavily

    General Notes

    I’ve tried to include just about everything you might want all in one place while using a model such as this. If you simply want a list of players and ratings, that’s right there for you. But if you want to dig a little deeper, I’ve shown a metric ton of stats for every player based on their matchup, so be sure to check out the Legend if you’re not sure what a particular column means.

    Many columns are also color coded for easy comparison between columns. Blue is the best matchup, followed by dark green, light green, yellow, orange, and red.

    The included players are based on confirmed lineups (indicated by the green check mark), but if there is not a confirmed lineup for that team, it will use the RotoGrinders projected lineups from the MLB Lineups page.

    Be aware that I’ve weighted down players with extremely low sample sizes, but there are instances where a low sample size might inflate or deflate a player’s rating. I’ve shown the number of plate appearances so you can take this into account quickly.

    These models are updated periodically as lineups come in, so be sure to check the “Last Updated” note at the top of the page.

    Feedback

    As we’re nearing the end of the MLB season, I’ve decided to release this in it’s current beta form to get feedback from you all so that I can make even more improvements for next season. Take a look, let me know what you think, and leave any suggestions here!

  • giantsfan12345

    Looks very complicated. Very cool though. Any chance you can make a tutorial video?

  • CruzinToVictory

    RG Product Coordinator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @mrmoz55 said...

    Looks very complicated. Very cool though. Any chance you can make a tutorial video?

    It is indeed quite complicated :)

    But yes, a tutorial video is probably a great idea. A Legend is great, but sometimes it’s just better to see someone using it to get the best idea. I’ll look into putting one together.

    Thanks for the suggetion!

  • bluestooges

    super cool!! I am interested to see how the surrounding wOBA, totally cool stat

  • Ross

    Incredible! Well done Brian :)

  • Garhett

    Noticed this and used it as another tool to construct a lineup. We will see how tonight goes! Its pretty Awesome!

  • Priptonite

    • Blogger of the Month

    What kind of time period does it use? This year? Past x years? Career?

  • CruzinToVictory

    RG Product Coordinator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Priptonite said...

    What kind of time period does it use? This year? Past x years? Career?

    It uses a combination of this season, last two seasons, and recent (last 30 days).

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 185

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #34

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

  • louiescards

    DK KoTH winner

    • Moderator

    Nice job Brian! Tell the truth, it took you this long to release it because making the C.R.U.Z. name work took a lot of time.

  • flip4flop

    Very interesting. Can’t wait to try this out over the weekend! Thanks!

  • glennantz

    I had Troy Tulowitzki today. You only had him with a score of 42.51 on the GPP model. He went 0 for 5 today. Wish I had seen your new model first. I think you might be on to something here. Good job.

  • yanks237

    Played around a bit tonight I can’t wait to use for the slate tomorrow. Great job! It looks great. I recently pulled together a similar file but pitchers only and no where near as complex!

  • VChair23

    • 872

      RG Overall Ranking

    Nice release.

    First suggestion: Filter Functionality by Team , Site Specific slate , if it could be expanded past that it would be great as well.

  • thepacificocean

    I could’ve just gave you a link to my Google Spreadsheet.

  • xtrme98

    Awesome! Any plans to make it Fantasy Aces friendly as well???

  • csuram88

    • 50

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #43

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • x7

      2014 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2014 DraftKings FBWC Champion

    Nice work Cruzin :)

  • chacha59

    Your a Fckin Genius!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • theblur

    After spending months trying to improve a model of my own, RG again surpasses me with one fell swoop!

    This is amazing – thanks for sharing!!

  • Grif39

    I wonder how much these RG contributors make off giving up all this info? Don’t get me wrong I love being able to find all my info in one place, and think RG helps keep newer players in the game longer, but wouldn’t it be more lucrative to use these tools on your own to exploit the DFS market? It takes 40+ pts nightly to cash in an MLB 50/50 anymore, which is crazy. The easy to find, easily accessible, FREE info found here takes the fish from poor to decent lineups pretty quickly and I have to believe it closes the gap between the beginner and mid level players, causing a lot of small/medium bankroll players to leave because they find it too hard to consistently beat the rake.

  • CruzinToVictory

    RG Product Coordinator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thanks for the kind words everyone! It did well last night, and while it’s been very good to me this season, remember that this is baseball and not to expect that kind of performance every night haha

    @VChair23 – Filters are something we absolutely plan on adding (by site, slate, position, etc) but that won’t come until next season.

    @Grif39 – I totally get where you’re coming from here, and even though I work here, I don’t totally disagree, but here are a few things to keep in mind:

    1) As we get this far into the MLB season, the vast majority of the fish have stopped playing. Baseball is a grind of a sport, and most of the fish get burned out by the all star break. This leads to a much higher percentage of sharks, which makes cashing much harder every night. This happens every year, althought it will get a little better once football starts up again.

    2) The percentage of players who use RG compared to the total player pool is likely smaller than you think. Sure, the info here helps a few newbs throw together decent lineups, but it’s not like 50% of the field checks RG before entering a contest.

    3) This particular tool is only free at the moment because I’m considering it a beta, and I want to fine tune it before calling it “complete” and charging for it. I’m going to take the offseason to make some changes, and next season it will no longer be a free tool, so that’s something to keep in mind.

    I hope that helps ease your mind a bit, but know that there will only be more and more DFS info entering the market out there. The edge is knowing which info to trust.

  • Socky21

    • 2017 RG Season Long Champion: NFL

    Great job Cruzin!!

  • dp47

    • 2012 RotoGrinders TPOY Champion

    • 2012 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • 2013 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2013 FanDuel NFL Playboy Mansion Finalist

  • emac

    • Ranked #92

      RG Tiered Ranking

    CruzinToVictory….by Excel Wizardry!!!!

    Very slick model.

  • Travisbecker

    Awesome! I love the bullpen aspect. I did a quick query on Baseball Reference not long ago, and found that something like 1/3 of home runs and runs scored come against relievers rather than starters.

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Very, very cool! Wanted to chime in yesterday and forgot. Well done, sir.

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