PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: September 6 – 9

    Where: Newtown Square, PA

    Course: Aronimink Golf Club | A par 70 playing at 7237 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Marc Leishman at – 23

    Last Year’s Cut: No Cut Event

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | NBC

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • ttucowboy84

    @tristanwolf said...

    true. but 250k people with 150 max entries in a single game showdown is a friggen joke as well!

    The showdowns in general are a total crapshoot. It’s a “throw shit against the wall and see what sticks” type of contest.

  • Logan7777

    @ttucowboy84 said...

    The showdowns in general are a total crapshoot. It’s a “throw shit against the wall and see what sticks” type of contest.

    Well mine must of not had enough stick em cause it ended at the bottom. 😂

  • js5734

    Is Phil a stupid showdown play tomorrow – I feel like he is gonna come out and throw a 65 on the board

  • Logan7777

    Catching up on 10 pages but must say well done to Bif. 🤑🤑👊

  • ttucowboy84

    @whodat2 said...

    I saw both Fleetwood and Molinari at 40-1 to win after R2 and bet $10 on each. Felt like a trap, but I’ve done worse with $20. Odds were too good not to take a small stab. I’m thinking one of them will stay hot….or not. Lol

  • mtdurham

    @tristanwolf said...

    true. but 250k people with 150 max entries in a single game showdown is a friggen joke as well!

    What do you mean?

    I made 25 lineups last night that overall performed very solid (cashed 14 of 25) and were slightly profitable overall but I still didn’t have any in the top 4,000 let alone hit the nut lineup….

    I could’ve easily made another 10-20 +EV lineups… and this was in a game that had almost zero fantasy appeal with such horrendous options at QB and WR. And a bad matchup for both offenses….

    I stopped building lineups just to limit my personal risk, not because I had every reasonable option covered up.

  • BIF

    @Logan7777 said...

    Catching up on 10 pages but must say well done to Bif. 🤑🤑👊

    Thanks Logan

    Pretty happy with the golf today too as my single bullet in the $44 was crap yesterday and sitting in 7800th out of 10.6K after round one and now I’m within 3 points of cashing. Fleetwood and Rose led that charge and everyone is -3 or better (so T38 or better).

  • tristanwolf

    @mtdurham said...

    What do you mean?

    I made 25 lineups last night that overall performed very solid (cashed 14 of 25) and were slightly profitable overall but I still didn’t have any in the top 4,000 let alone hit the nut lineup….

    I could’ve easily made another 10-20 +EV lineups… and this was in a game that had almost zero fantasy appeal with such horrendous options at QB and WR. And a bad matchup for both offenses….

    I stopped building lineups just to limit my personal risk, not because I had every reasonable option covered up.

    what do i mean? the nuts had like 0 random players. i don’t know how many bif played but kudos to him as he is a great contributor to the forum, but the 150 max entry if you could afford 1500, was pretty much a lock to win money in this case. i totally agree with the why dont you max entry if it is so easy on a 10,12 15 game slate, but on a one game, the fishes are donating.

  • BIF

    @tristanwolf said...

    what do i mean? the nuts had like 0 random players. i don’t know how many bif played but kudos to him as he is a great contributor to the forum, but the 150 max entry if you could afford 1500, was pretty much a lock to win money in this case. i totally agree with the why dont you max entry if it is so easy on a 10,12 15 game slate, but on a one game, the fishes are donating.

    30 lineups

    Tried to map out an array of possible game scripts and then pick the 6 optimal plays for each based on my projections within the salary cap. I did this with 20 lineups and then as it wasn’t near full I added 10 more late yest afternoon with kinda crazy lineups with cheap punts, kickers, etc…

    My perfect lineup was one of the first 20 I made obviously.

    Only cashed 4/30 but that was because I didn’t have a lot of Ajayi lineups.

  • Trappist1

    @tristanwolf said...

    what do i mean? the nuts had like 0 random players. i don’t know how many bif played but kudos to him as he is a great contributor to the forum, but the 150 max entry if you could afford 1500, was pretty much a lock to win money in this case. i totally agree with the why dont you max entry if it is so easy on a 10,12 15 game slate, but on a one game, the fishes are donating.

    I can imagine some are so used to maxing their entries, it is their default setting and they max enter everything. Plug the data, run the optimizer, click and upload into contests. Old habits are hard to shake off. But from what I read and listened, some of the sharp players are moving away from optimizers towards making smaller entries and build by hand. Reason they give include, they find handling hundreds of line-up’s can be inefficient and errors they have made managing high volume of entries has cost them money. Listen to Csuram and Bales latest pod on the action network, they share some good insights there.

    I have gone into the contest to see if any of the high profile volume players had max entries in the showdown. Awesomo – 150 entries – buy in fee – $1500. In the money – none. In short, 150 max entry was no lock to win money. Actually the smart strategy is 1 LU in there looking for maximum return if it hits. Cost $10. :)

  • mtdurham

    @tristanwolf said...

    what do i mean? the nuts had like 0 random players. i don’t know how many bif played but kudos to him as he is a great contributor to the forum, but the 150 max entry if you could afford 1500, was pretty much a lock to win money in this case. i totally agree with the why dont you max entry if it is so easy on a 10,12 15 game slate, but on a one game, the fishes are donating.

    Serious LOL at this post. Maybe sit this one out for a little while man. It’s pretty much the exact opposite of what you are stating here. I mean no offense, but this is the kind of gross oversimplification that makes people sound absolutely clueless when it comes to DFS.

    If it was so easy why didn’t everyone just win $25,000 last night?

    Yeah it’s real simple to say you would have played zero Quarterbacks yesterday in hindsight, right? After all, that combination basically won NEVER last year.

    I’d be a millionaire if I could read tea leaves too.

    Enough with the “If i had a bigger bankroll” excuse already…. Anyone who is any good at anything in this world can build a bankroll simply by doing it instead of making excuses. The best garbage collector in the world has a net worth of over $1 billion dollars because he figured out how to do it more efficiently than everyone else. Even a decent brick layer can make $1 million dollars a year by figuring out how to lay bricks cheaper than the guy currently paying him $9/hour.

    Most people in this world get rich not by starting with a bankroll…but by proving themselves in some capacity and encouraging others to invest in their future.

    Bif just won enough money last night to fund an $80/day DFS bankroll for an entire YEAR… and if he didnt cash a SINGLE ENTRY ALL YEAR he’d be breakeven….

    So if anyone thinks that’s so easy… Do it… stop making excuses…. Play $80 a day. You don’t need a “bankroll”. You can make that working at a gas station. All you have to do is win ONE GPP ALL YEAR and you’ll break even. You can donate the “winnings” everytime you come in 2nd or worse to homeless veterans and redeem the 500,000 crowns you earn to fund a $2,500 college scholarship in your community.

    And you’ll probably get a Rotogrinders tiered ranking next to your username.

    Welcome to the DFS community. Where users simultaneously complain that the rake is too high, the competition is too tough, and it’s too easy to win $25,455.

    I’m a pretty intelligent dude yet I’ve only made over $10k in a month twice in my entire life.

    A) Once when my boss sold a HUGE insurance policy and I actually showed up to work for once all 22 weekdays that month so I could get 2% of his commission. (Yes, you’re reading that correctly. TWO percent of his commission.)

    B) And once when I went heavily overweight PJ Tucker and Javale McGee in two separate NBA Playoff Showdown lineups in the Western Conference Finals and NBA Finals.

    Now Which one of those two was more difficult to do?

    Granted, in Scenario A I lived on a beach 3 miles away from work and had a huge substance abuse problem so waking up for work and corraling an UBER or convincing someone to drive me there for $10 was a hassle. and needed a college degree and ~6-7 professional licenses to acquire the job in the first place.

    And I probably only changed my underwear or left the house four times in the month of Scenario B…. but I can tell you I spent a solid 85 hours a week building a spreadsheet and carefully hand selecting 150 lineups every night. And those lineups were based on a level of NBA knowledge, intuition, and overall analytical sophistication that I could only dream of possessing when it comes to finance and the business landscape in general.

  • mtdurham

    @BIF said...

    30 lineups

    Tried to map out an array of possible game scripts and then pick the 6 optimal plays for each based on my projections within the salary cap. I did this with 20 lineups and then as it wasn’t near full I added 10 more late yest afternoon with kinda crazy lineups with cheap punts, kickers, etc…

    My perfect lineup was one of the first 20 I made obviously.

    Only cashed 4/30 but that was because I didn’t have a lot of Ajayi lineups.

    Of all the things you said in this post the most important one was “Only cashed 4/30”

    I cashed 14 of my 25 lineups in the Main and won $10….

    You cashed 4 of 30 lineups in the Main and won $25,000….

    Maybe… Just maybe… if more people played to win instead of being scared to lose, they’d figure this whole DFS thing out one day

  • mtdurham

    @ttucowboy84 said...

    The showdowns in general are a total crapshoot. It’s a “throw shit against the wall and see what sticks” type of contest.

    This is simply not the case… Im going to reference a post from an insightful user in another thread with regards to Showdown mode.

    “The best part about showdown mode is that you can actually win a GPP without being a computer nerd and sitting around looking at spreadsheets all day. An average Joe can glance at his phone and make note of the players listed and in under 2 minutes select six guys he thinks might help him win $1 million dollars. You darn sure Can’t do that in full slate GPP, you’ll get spit roasted that way.

    Let’s say I’m a Carolina Panthers fan. I already know my team. And obviously I know most of the Dallas Cowboys main guys we are playing against. All I gotta do is find out who their 2nd best Wide Receiver is and make an assessment of how stupid their coaching staff is and boom I’ve got a strategy.

    There’s no need for me to know what the weather is in Newark, New Jersey or if someone pulled their groin at 4 AM dancing at the club in Tijuana last night. 2 minutes. That’s it. Boom. I Might win a million dollars. Instead of some guy who doesn’t know the difference between a First Down and a Free Safety who built a computer network in his living room and should be working for NASA right now curb stomping me into the ground every night because his algorithm built 150 different optimized combinations for him based off publicly accessible data.

    Some of us enjoy the SPORTS aspect of DraftKings more than the Full Slate GPP – Computer Science Fair that everyone else is playing.

    Showdown – Captain mode fills that need perfectly for us sports fans.

    I used to play poker full time before online poker really developed all the way and the live games got flooded with all these internet players. It used to be fun, social, and profitable. Until it got completely nerded out with software and data collection. And then Game Theory Optimal came along and killed the game entirely. The Same thing will happen over time to DFS Full Slate GPP to a lesser extent and that’s why we are seeing smaller and smaller prize pools and poor customer retention. They’re selling a product that very few people want as a casual sports fan. DFS is supposed to enhance the experience of watching sports. However, none of the top winners even watch sports. They don’t have the time or the need to watch sports. The software does the work for them and they’re so busy compiling data and jamming 80,000 lineups into every single contest they don’t have time to watch games even if they were interested in sports.

    But Showdown – Captain Mode is here to save the day. Good luck on your spreadsheets in that mode for guys who don’t watch sports. I don’t see them ever “solving” that and ruining it completely. I’ll take my 30+ years of watching and playing SPORTS over your spreadsheets and math books all day long on a one game slate.

    With Showdown – Captain Mode I can build 25 lineups handmade in 30 minutes that have positive Expected Value. I’m like Amadeus Mozart ripping flatulence off the piano bench while composing a symphony. I know what a winning lineup looks like in my head because I’ve watched thousands upon thousands of games in every sport unfold over three DECADES.

    There is nothing a spreadsheet can possibly tell you to nullify my advantage in that regard. If you don’t cast a wide enough net you’ll lack sample size and if you cast it too wide you’ll lack specificity. Either way my advantage remains. And It won’t take me 30 years to mitigate your software advantage by perusing some statistical correlations and reading a few internet articles, trust me.”

  • LockeLamora

    Scott and Smith are trashing my DFS.

    Good job Tiger put in his one good round on the first day so Tiger fans could lose their sports betting **** and let everyone else print free money.

  • tristanwolf

  • tristanwolf

    lol excuses? play to win? i’ve won a gpp each of the last 4 years to cover my entries for the year mtdurham. my point was showdown max entry top heavy payouts suck. agree to disagree.

  • shadowchap1978

    Hmmm picking showdown players today is like

  • walkoff9

    Delayed until at least 11 AM and it doesn’t look great after that.

  • BIF

    @walkoff9 said...

    Delayed until at least 11 AM and it doesn’t look great after that.

    Damn – guess I’ll just make NFL lineups then

  • jclem2115

    @walkoff9 said...

    Delayed until at least 11 AM and it doesn’t look great after that.

    I’ll be on the course in about an hour. Will send a report back, but rain hammered the area all night and still going

  • jclem2115

    Got here earlier than expected. Still raining and a lot of standing water on the course. Nice little river coming down 18 fairway. Doesn’t appear anyone will tee off before noon. Probably split tees if the do get it in today…undetermined if they go threesomes instead of twosomes

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Guys, let’s keep NFL strategy discussion in the NFL thread please: https://rotogrinders.com/threads/nfl-week-1-2598634?page=107

    I went ahead and moved the NFL discussion over there.

  • BIF

    C’mon Bill, we are in a weather delay here – we need something to talk about 🙄

  • lfn1992

    Mike “I will extend full effort when it can’t possibly help me in Ryder Cup but will completely fuck LFN over in DFG” Fitzpatrick

  • jclem2115

    Official – won’t tee off until at least noon. The weather looks terrible for tomorrow and they are already making arrangments for a Monday finish if needed. No word on preferred lies

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