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  • timusbr

    RACE AGE, SEX DISTANCE PURSE*
    Friday, November 2

    Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint 2yo, C&G, Fillies    5 1/2 furlongs (T)    1M
    Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) 2yo, Fillies 1 mile (T) 1M
    Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies  (G1) 2yo, Fillies 1 1/16 miles 2M
    Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) 2yo, C&G 1 mile (T) 1M
    Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)    2yo, C&G 1 1/16 miles 2M

    Saturday, November 3 

    Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) 3yo & Up, F&M 7 furlongs 1M
    Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) 3yo & Up 5 1/2 furlongs (T) 1M
    Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) 3yo & Up 1 mile 1M
    Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) 3yo & Up, F&M 1 3/8  miles (T) 2M
    TwinSpires Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) 3yo & Up 6 furlongs 2M
    Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) 3yo & Up 1 mile (T) 2M
    Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) 3yo & Up, F&M  1 1/8 miles 2M
    Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) 3yo & Up 1 1/2 miles (T) 4M
    Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) 3yo & Up 1 1/4 miles 6M

  • timusbr

    I like events and Horse racing. With that in mind, I have talked horses with several people on RG in the past.

    I havnt done my handicapping and will probably end up doing it the day of the races, just getting bets in on TVG prior to post time. Not much time to share….but you probably dont want to follow my picks. I like to go for odds over favorites and take a chance for $$‘s :)

    Hope a few others want to follow along and exchange picks, info, reasoning, whatever is on your mind.

  • timusbr

    LOL if a moderator can change the forum heading to Breeders cup 2018 that would be great.
    Damn if my constant looking at the PGA calander hasnt screwed me up. I keep thinking its 2019 already.

  • lwel21

    • 934

      RG Overall Ranking

    • $1M Prize Winner

    Here are a few of my thoughts for each of the Breeders Cup Races

    Friday

    Juvenile Turf Sprint: Wide open race but Im going to go to Chelsea Cloisters in this spot at what should be a nice price. Wesley Ward has treated this filly like a good one from the start and she has been very impressive so far. She has been facing the colts in her last couple starts and ran against race flow in both of the last two to finish 2 nice seconds.

    Juvenile Filly Turf: Newspaperofrecord looks to be the goods for Chad Brown and I am going to lean heavily on this horse in multi race wagers, The one only horse that I will use in this race is Just Wonderful for Aiden O’Brien, really like the turn of foot she showed in the last to win the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket.

    Juvenile Filly: No real opinion in this race, will use the 2,4,7,10 in pick 4s.

    Juvenile Turf: I want to lean on the Euros in this race. Anthony Van Dyck drew a tough outside post but has the best races on his pages, multiple stakes winner in England and multiple Grade 1 placed against the best they have over there. I will also use Line of Duty for the great horseman Charlie Appleby at a square price.

    Juvenile: Complexity and Game Winner are the horses to beat in this race and I will use them in the Pick 4 and 5 but I want to throw in Mr. Money at his 30-1 morning line for Bret Calhoun who does nice work with younger horses and I like that fact that he is being aggressive with the placement of this horse. He improved with the stretch out to 2 turns and likes the Churchill Downs surface shown by his win there and the local works leading up to the BC.

    Saturday

    Filly and Mare Sprint: Marley’s Freedom looks to be really tough in this spot from Baffert and is a must use in any sort of multiple race wager, I am going to use Selcourt with her inside draw despite John Sadler’s poor record outside of Southern California and the price play in this race for me is Golden Mischief for Brad Cox who has this horse leading up to the race the right way and after watching her latest work, I believe she could be sitting on go at a nice price.

    Turf Sprint: Wide open race of 14, no real opinion, I want to spread and hope to catch a price.

    Dirt Mile: City of Light and Catalina Cruiser are going to take a lot of money in this race. The only other horse I have some interest in is Firenze Fire who hasn’t ran a bad one turn race yet. I will use all 3 in equal weight.

    Filly and Mare Turf: Magic Wand, Wild Illusion and Sistercharlie are the only horses I want in this race. I don’t like the distance for the other main contender, Fourstar Crook.

    Sprint: Imperial Hint is going to take a lot of money in this race and he is a horse I want to be against. I like the 6/8th for Whitmore, his turn of foot should play nice with all the projected front end speed in this race. The other horse I will use is defending sprint champ Roy H. Peter Miller has him rounding into form and he should get a nice tracking trip off the speeds.

    Mile: You are going to get a square price on the horse you like in this race. My biggest opinion in this race is to be against co-second choices on the morning line Catapult and Analyze It. I believe Catapult prefers the rock hard turf courses on the west coast and Analyze It is a bet against for me facing older horses ( he should take money because of the Chad Brown factor as well) . The Euros look to have a strong hand in this race to me.

    Distaff: Abel Tasman 7-2 second choice is the one I want in the Distaff.

    Turf: The Euros once again look to be really tough in this turf race. Enable is 9 for 10 lifetime and won the Arc in her last start. She is without a doubt the horse to beat. The best chances at upsets are from Andre Fabre 2 horses, Talismanic the defending champ and Waldegiest who finished 4th to Enable in the Arc. Ian Wilkes has Quarteto de Cordes at 30-1 on the morning line in this spot who has created a little buzz with his recent works and might be worth throwing into some exotics underneath Enable to spice things up.

    Classic: Accelerate is the deserving favorite in this race but I will try to beat him from his outside 14 post. In a race where I don’t really love anyone, I will be price hunting. The right prices for me in this spot are the 2 horses coming out of the Woodward, Yoshida and Gunnaevra. Leofric, the 3rd place finisher in the Woodward came back last Saturday to win the Fayette at Keeneland. This is more of a play against the horses I don’t love and hoping for a honest pace to give the closers a fair chance.

  • baggerly

    I’m taking half a day off Friday just for this. I’m going to try to do a little handicapping tonight. Will try to post tonight/tomorrow with some of my early thoughts.

  • timusbr

    iwel21,
    nice write-up. To be on top of this at this time, shows your a true horse-player. I myself will be just getting a first glance at horses trainers and jockeys. I need to have a good idea of the track conditions, then I take my years of bias’s and take a shot. I love the 10cent super, but I think that will not be available. So I will trifecta and exacta my way to a nice vacation or several weekends at home :)

    good luck

  • depalma13

    Just an early glance, but the Mile is wide open and Mustashy and Lighting Spear have a very realistic shot of being 2 of the top 3 at 15-1 and 20-1 morning line.

    If they can get home with a horse like Divisidero, who probably wants more distance but loves Churchill, we could be looking at monster payoffs for the tris and supers.

  • Moszman

  • timusbr

    20 minutes to go for post 1 at Churchill. Not a breeders cup race but……Lets get Racing.

    no research done yet, but TVG is now open and the Daily Racing Form is downloaded.

  • timusbr

    was close in race 1 using longshot #6 but only 6 horses. Was very close and didnt want to siphon my bankroll early.
    on race 2. #*#!&%#, bet a super that cost $6 and keyed the 6, was backing that bet up and didnt want to siphon the bankroll so stopped, went and made a sandwich instead. Freakin would have won the backup bet for $187,
    race 3 bet a little got nowhere near a payout. Feeling good, speed doing well

  • yisman

    thanks for the thoughts, lwel

    I have to submit some picks for a contest so I tried some of what you said. Annoying part is I have to submit all 14 now. Might get hit with scratches and no alternates allowed.

  • timusbr

    the first BC race 2yo turf sprint.
    The English horse solders call #2 , also like strike silver #1
    took tri 1,2 with 1,2 with 3,4,5,9,10,11

  • lwel21

    • 934

      RG Overall Ranking

    • $1M Prize Winner

    Got 24-1 on Chelsea Cloisters in the juvenile sprint, ran 2nd, should be decent money across the board

  • timusbr

    well done iwel,
    Race 5, I can go against this favorite. He ran a weak field race last time out. I like the French horse #3. did a key box with 3/12456 and super 23/12356/1234561112/again

  • timusbr

    lol, that favorite was the stuff. not to disappointed in my loss, tried to beat the favorite. The freakin euro riders are the only idiots that go to the rail in the turf stretch. kinda disappointing, they took my heart out immediately upon doing so.

  • yisman

    I tried the #4 and #5

    I was hoping one would at least hit the board there. Can’t bet a 3/5 horse, especially in a huge field like that.

  • lwel21

    • 934

      RG Overall Ranking

    • $1M Prize Winner

    Yeah the rail on the turf course is definitely not the place to be after all that rain.

    Newspaperofrecord is the goods. Chad Brown has another turf star.

    Think the chalk might be good in this next race also.

    Good luck next race, get you a winner

  • timusbr

    Race 6, Went looking for speed horses with class and found the chalk. #7 and #10 on top with 2,3,4,8

    Woo Hoo, got a 10cent super for $149 and a 50cent tri for $193.80 was screamin my ass off for that #3 down the stretch 35-1 vs the 4 @ 3-1. but I will take the win. thank god, first winner on the day.

  • yisman

    noticed it too late to take advantage but the pools for r7 were way out of whack

    the 9/5 horse had a lot less in place and show wagers than the 3/1 second choice

    I went with the 3,6,9, the longest shots on the board. Oh well.

  • lwel21

    • 934

      RG Overall Ranking

    • $1M Prize Winner

    Nice hits.

    Like the 2 here for a price play, need 2,5,8,14 in the pick 4

  • yisman

    Pretty surprised to see the top two choices miss the board there.

    edit: nevermind, Restless Rider got second

  • lwel21

    • 934

      RG Overall Ranking

    • $1M Prize Winner

    Wow the 2 took a lot of money

  • yisman

    10/1 M/L on Line of Duty, currently 3/1

    So much for that

  • timusbr

    looks like a chalk exacta 6 complexity and 9 game winner

    played these 2 with 4,7,8,12,14

    EDIT: shit, I was down to who to throw in my pool. the last choice I made was 8 or 10(40-1). The 8 was more of a favorite (8-1) and everyone else was dbl digits, so I went 8. with the 14 (60-1) oh momma. 10cent super $1628.

  • yisman

    bad first day for me

    I think I bet 9 or 10 different horses over the five races and didn’t hit a single winner. Admittedly, I was trying for prices.

    My biggest bet was Mr Money in r9, with the odds drifting. Horse wound up 40/1!

  • depalma13

    Have most of my handicapping done for Saturday. Hit the first trifecta in the Juvenile Sprint. I have to thank Iwel21 for Cloisters. I would not have played her, but you’re write up made me reconsider. Nothing else after that except the small exacta in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

    OK Here we go.

    I am a vertical player so I will be using these horses in all 4 spots in their respective races.

    F&M Sprint

    This race is full of sprinters who are not 7 furlong specialists and that is what we must demand. That extra furlong is a wall. The #9 – Stormy Embrace has run the distance 8 times and has been in the top four 8 times. At 20-1 for the Florida bred she is my must use for this race.

    Turf Sprint

    The majority of graded Churchill Sprints cashing positions are filled with horses from outside post positions (2 out of 3 today for example). This is where we find our favorites. The #11 World of Trouble seems to relish the soft ground and looks to be improving at the right time.

    Dirt Mile

    I want horses that are turning back from a mile and an eighth to run in this race. The #2 Trigger Warning was a distant third in the PA Derby to 2 horses that earn a serious look in the Classic. He’s a late blooming 3 year-old who might get away at boxcar odds again.

    Fill & Mare Turf

    I always look for 3 year-old European fillies first in this race. We get four in this race. One has already been crushed by the Chad brigade in the Beverly D. Another I just see as way over matched. The other two are chalky, but of them, the #10 Magic Wand looks she may be better suited for the distance.

    The Sprint

    The #2 Promises Fulfilled is going to the lead and playing catch me if you can. The horse reminds me so much of Trinniberg, the last sprinting three year-old that found itself in the Kentucky Derby who went on to be a sprint monster later in the year.

    The Mile

    As I posted earlier I really like the #14 Mustashry in this race. He fits every angle I use. The #15 Divisidero loves this turf. If they get home together, well I can dream.

    Distaff

    The #5 Wonder Gadot tangled with the boys in the Travers and came back for a respectable effort in the Catillon. She gets back on Churchill dirt and based on her most recent works it is exactly what she needs.

    Turf

    The #2 Enable is a lock in the is race. Not so fast my friend… If #10 Hi Happy gets an easy lead she just may have the courage to turn back the 2 time Arc winner in the stretch.

    Classic

    #1 Thunder Snow looks to redeem himself from the last time he visited Churchill. Making it past the start finish line the first time will be a major improvement. I think he got quite a bit out of the Jockey Club Gold Cup and will get Godolphin a Classic win.

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