STRATEGY FORUM

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  • depalma13

    Best two days of horse racing have arrived. With all of the money in the pools, horses will go off at odds well above where they should be. There are chances to make some big money today and tomorrow.

    For the Friday BC Races here are my best value plays for each BC race.

    Key: MFV – My Fair Value, M/L – Morning Line Odds

    Race 6 Juvenile Turf Sprint

    #3 Lipizzaner MFV: 5-1 M/L : 20-1
    #7 Momos MFV: 15-1 M/L: 15-1

    Race 7 Juvenile Turf

    #2 New Mandate MFV: 5-2 M/L: 12-1
    #12 Go Athletico MFV: 8-1 M/L: 10-1
    #13 Devilwawa MFV: 15-1 M/L: 30-1

    Race 8 Juvenile Fillies

    #2 Vequist MFV: 5-1 M/L: 8-1
    #6 Crazy Beautiful MFV: 15-1 M/L: 20-1

    Race 9 Juvenile Fillies Turf

    #2 Miss Amulet MFV: 5-2 M/L: 12-1
    #8 Mother Earth MFV: 12-1 M/L: 20-1

    Race 10 Juvenile

    #6 Keepmeinmind MFV:15-1 M/L 30-1
    #9 Sitting On Go MFV: 12-1 M/L: 12-1

  • harryfox23

    Just curious if you have a moment, but what are a couple of the key things you look for when handicapping? I’m a complete weekend warrior. I’ve moved up from just picking them out by whatever horse is named after a cat or like a Pearl Jam song to at least looking at their race speeds over the last few races and the type of track they were on…but that’s about it!

  • depalma13

    @harryfox23 said...

    Just curious if you have a moment, but what are a couple of the key things you look for when handicapping? I’m a complete weekend warrior. I’ve moved up from just picking them out by whatever horse is named after a cat or like a Pearl Jam song to at least looking at their race speeds over the last few races and the type of track they were on…but that’s about it!

    On dirt, I like to see horses making speed moves on the turn in a sprint or the second turn in a route. I like to see them make this move while going wide.

    If they pick up two lengths or more while going wide, it’s a strong indicator of next out performance.

    Example: If a horse is 8 back going into the turn and is 4 back coming out and did this while being at least 3 wide. Even if the horse didn’t win that race, it signals he got something out of the effort. And should prep him well for his next start.

    If the horse is on the lead, I like to see them open up on the field in the turn.

    On Turf, it is all about closing kick in the final quarter mile. The horses with the fastest closing times among the field, tend to do the best.

    If you like speed figures, take the last three, drop the lowest and average the remaining two. If will give you a general idea on how to compare the horses in the race and it helps off set horses who had big race out of the blue.

    Example

    Horse A has speed figures of 100, 82, 81

    Horse B has speed figure of 93, 94, 77

    The average for A is 91, the average for B is 93.5. B may have longer odds because A is sporting that last out triple digit figure that the public jumps on. Meanwhile B is probably the better horse and most likely at longer odds.

    A simple indicator of if the horse may be ready to run a big race, is lo0k at their last two races. If the finished 5th or better two races back and than followed it up with another top five, but better than the previous, it shows they may be ready to run huge.

    Example: horse runs 4th two back and than 3rd last out. Today it may be sitting on that winning race at longer odds because it’s facing a horse that is sporting back to back wins.

    Finally, look at the class of the race. Grade One horses win Grade One races. Horses that are battle tested against the best of their peers should never be dismissed simply because they are facing the up and coming super star.

  • Moszman

    Not sure how I’m rolling today, pick 3’s or a big pick 4. Today’s payouts should be bigger than tomorrow due that it’s youngster day today and more likely some 💣 roll in, best of luck everyone.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    I haven’t had much time to put into the races this year..

    So far I only like two horses today I am going to take a shot on R3 – #12 Fighting Seabee / R4 – #8 Wildwood’s Beauty

    I am having my coffee looking at the racing forms now.

  • marker0357

    I like No Word in the 3rd but I’m biased towards AP Indy in general

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    I don’t think there is any need to handicap after that race LOL

  • marker0357

    no kidding. Alternate gets in the race and wins at 74/1. Needless to say, swing and a miss.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    LOL..then the 8 runs third gets beat for 2nd..I am just not feeling it this week.

  • harryfox23

    @depalma13 said...

    On dirt, I like to see horses making speed moves on the turn in a sprint or the second turn in a route. I like to see them make this move while going wide.

    If they pick up two lengths or more while going wide, it’s a strong indicator of next out performance.

    Example: If a horse is 8 back going into the turn and is 4 back coming out and did this while being at least 3 wide. Even if the horse didn’t win that race, it signals he got something out of the effort. And should prep him well for his next start.

    If the horse is on the lead, I like to see them open up on the field in the turn.

    On Turf, it is all about closing kick in the final quarter mile. The horses with the fastest closing times among the field, tend to do the best.

    If you like speed figures, take the last three, drop the lowest and average the remaining two. If will give you a general idea on how to compare the horses in the race and it helps off set horses who had big race out of the blue.

    Example

    Horse A has speed figures of 100, 82, 81

    Horse B has speed figure of 93, 94, 77

    The average for A is 91, the average for B is 93.5. B may have longer odds because A is sporting that last out triple digit figure that the public jumps on. Meanwhile B is probably the better horse and most likely at longer odds.

    A simple indicator of if the horse may be ready to run a big race, is lo0k at their last two races. If the finished 5th or better two races back and than followed it up with another top five, but better than the previous, it shows they may be ready to run huge.

    Example: horse runs 4th two back and than 3rd last out. Today it may be sitting on that winning race at longer odds because it’s facing a horse that is sporting back to back wins.

    Finally, look at the class of the race. Grade One horses win Grade One races. Horses that are battle tested against the best of their peers should never be dismissed simply because they are facing the up and coming super star.

    Hey thanks for the quickie thought process, really appreciate it!

  • depalma13

    Looks like an inside speed bias at Keeneland today. The golden rail is back.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    @depalma13 said...

    Looks like an inside speed bias at Keeneland today. The golden rail is back.

    It’s a marathon this race so bias probably not that significant but I will see if Castellano can bring home another.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    These are numbers we all dream about I just can’t get there..

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    Ok so another horse I really liked that checks all my (regular day) handicapping boxes is Momos #7 but I run into a 3/5 shot Golden Pal..the exacta 7/14 and 14/7 aren’t bad..Momos – first time w/ blinks..good works 2nd race off layoff and shortens up..other than the exacta box 7/14 I will need him to win with all other wagers plus WIN bet because I am greedy! LOL Plus I am getting up to 50.00 back this weekend on all my win bets if my horse runs 2nd or 3rd so its worth it if I hit the board.

  • depalma13

    7 was a big disappointment. Liked Cowan a little so I caught the cheap exacta, but didn’t have the 6 on any ticket.

    On to the next race. Need the 2 on top or I’m toast in this one.

  • depalma13

    Finally! Got my top choice home and hit the tri and super.

  • depalma13

    Just crushed the Juvenile Fillies Turf!

    Got both of my long shots home with the favorite!

    Woohooo!

  • Moszman

    @depalma13 said...

    Just crushed the Juvenile Fillies Turf!

    Got both of my long shots home with the favorite!

    Woohooo!

    Nice, will post some of my plays tomorrow, had 4/5 in the pick 5 with 2 singles. I’ll learn to go deeper in the other legs when I already have 2 singles on my ticket eventually.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    Nice job! Today was a bust after the Turf sprint I had to get some sleep before work..

  • depalma13

    Today’s BC Races:

    Race 4

    #9 Bell’s the One MFV: 5-1 M/L: 6-1

    Race 5

    #6 Glass Slippers MFV: 5-2 M/L: 12-1
    #8 Oleksandra MFV: 8-1 M/L: 12-1

    Race 6

    #2 Sharp Samurai MFV: 8-1 M/L: 15-1

    Race 7

    #7 Terebellum MFV: 5-2 M/L: 20-1
    #11 Audarya MFV: 5-1 M/L: 12-1

    Race 8

    #11 Diamond Oops MFV: 8-1 M/L 8-1

    Race 9

    #6 Safe Voyage MFV: 5-1 M/L: 15-1
    #4 Siskin MFV: 12-1 M/L: 12-1

    Race 10

    #4 Horologist MFV: 5-1 M/L: 8-1
    #7 Point of Honor MFV: 15-1 M/L : 30-1

    Race 11

    #6 Lord North MFV: 5-2 M/L: 8-1

    Race 12

    No Value in the race.

  • yisman

    tailed with some win bets yesterday. Tailing again with some win bets.

    TVG and xpressbet have promos where if your win bet finishes 2nd/3rd you get refund up to $10.

  • yisman

    r5

    also betting Big Runnuer

  • marker0357

    nick pick with Glass Slippers

  • depalma13

    @marker0357 said...

    nick pick with Glass Slippers

    Thanks!

    Got lucky with the all button for second in the exacta.

  • MortalWombat

    Venetian harbor Got smoked. Thought she was a live long shot.

  • marker0357

    like Jesus’s Team to Show next race

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