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  • TheEpicOne

    I am reading Jon Bales mlb book and it’s got me thinking about BvP. I understand that typically there is not enough data to use BvP as a predictive measure, but have there been studies or are there tools that can be used to look at batters versus an aggregate of certain types of pitchers? I know that pitchers are typically aggregated by handedness, but what I am looking for is a subset of those pitchers. For example, is there a tool we can use to look at how Anthony Rizzo fares against righties whose fastball is 91-93 and whose primary out pitch is a slider or something along those lines?

    Edit: Thinking about this a little more, can we aggregate fangraphs pitchfx data to create pitcher groups, and then analyze hitters against those groups?

  • CrazyGabey

    Someone get the TommyG bat signal up in the air.

  • DugFister

    • 2017 RG Season Long Champion: MLB

    On it.

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    Goldy vs Timmy EVERYTIME

  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

    • 904

      RG Overall Ranking

    • x3

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    This is a great thought, and I think the next step in player evaluation is creating player comps and analyzing otherwise small-sample data with more relevant players. Basically, you’re trading in just a bit of relevancy for a larger sample.

    Even though I think most BvP isn’t useful, that’s really only a problem with the sample and our ability to draw conclusions from it. In theory, BvP would be incredibly useful if we had more data; I think it’s fair to say that certain batters should perform better/worse vs certain pitchers based on things like batted ball profiles, pitch types, handedness, etc. The issue isn’t that BvP doesn’t “exist,” I think, but rather that there are problems with taking past BvP data and using it in a predictive way.

    This is sort of like the idea of injury proneness. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think certain players are far more likely than others to get injured or less likely to heal quickly after an injury. But injuries are infrequent enough on the individual level that using past injuries to predict future ones isn’t really useful, and probably actually leads to forgoing value in a lot of instances. We can overcome that when we increase the relevant sample. So we know that older RBs with a lower BMI have a higher probability of getting injured than young, high-BMI backs, for example.

    Anyway, yes, if someone can generate useful player comps to expand the relevant sample with BvP data, then I could see a ton of value in that.

    tl;dr – I actually don’t think BvP is illusory – we should expect certain batters to match up well with certain pitchers – but it’s going to be difficult to use individual BvP data to predict future success. That could potentially be overcome with a PECOTA-esque sim score approach to expand the relevant sample.

  • Riley

    RG Co-Founder

    A company called InsideEdge provides this sort of pitcher grouping analysis, and we will be working with them to provide notes for each player on RotoGrinders that highlight how each batter does against all the categories of pitchers that today’s pitchers fall into. You can expect that integration early in baseball season.

  • TheEpicOne

    Thanks for the response Jon. I’m really interested in the InsideEdge data. I’ll be looking out for it. Thanks again.

  • MTro86

    RG Writer

    @Riley said...

    A company called InsideEdge provides this sort of pitcher grouping analysis, and we will be working with them to provide notes for each player on RotoGrinders that highlight how each batter does against all the categories of pitchers that today’s pitchers fall into. You can expect that integration early in baseball season.

    I had to re-read this several times to make sure I wasn’t dreaming. I’m hoping pitch height will be some of the categories (ie pitchers that throw a lot of high fastballs, pitchers that live down in the zone)

  • tommygmets86

    @Riley said...

    A company called InsideEdge provides this sort of pitcher grouping analysis, and we will be working with them to provide notes for each player on RotoGrinders that highlight how each batter does against all the categories of pitchers that today’s pitchers fall into. You can expect that integration early in baseball season.

    Awesome

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