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  • Cubbies724

    Everyone hates on BVP, and I can’t see why. Yes, small sample sizes are often completely irrelevant and shouldn’t be considered, but BVP when you have a few years of matchups can be really useful.

    For example, the Cubs have absolutely crushed Michael Wacha since 2015, yet the Cubs were one of the least popular stacks of the day. Yes, they’ve been struggling and Wachsman is been solid, but the history is just too good to pass up on. Seeing Happ has 2 HR in less than 10 at bats at least tells us he can see him well. BVP overtime should be, in my opinion, one of the primary pieces of research in creating a lineup.

    So my Cubs stack on the day put me in first for 2K in the new two entry max $150 entry fee contest. Feel free to share your thoughts below.

  • DSofM

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    My thoughts are: For the one example where you can get a big game against a solid pitcher there will be hundreds of times where these posts never actually make it onto the forums because BVP is a flawed statistic and has such a small sample that drawing any conclusions from it is foolish. Anyone who takes it seriously is probably losing long term because they fail to understand sample sizes and how much luck is involved in a short sample like the one you gave us involving Ian Happ which results in them over valuing useless statistics (BVP, batting average, hot streaks, etc.)

  • Durrrtyred

    I agree with BVP being underrated because it helps you understand how well a hitter picks up the pitcher. Baseball is very unpredictable sport so any piece of research is important.

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

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    I use BVP when deciding between 2 players that I have projected close to each other. Just something that may push me towards a guy when deciding.

  • jayzee666

    Use BvP for a week and come back with your results over that time period. I have used BvP a few times and it always fails me, but that is because I suck the life out of DFS players.

  • divusjulius

    • Blogger of the Month

    the only thing of a smaller sample size than bvp is one tournament result.

  • rog11sm

    I once saw willie mcghee go 5 for 5 off of a good pitcher and not 1 ball left the infield. The pitcher owned his ass and he wasn’t seeing the ball worth a damn. yet he was 5 for 5.
    NUMBERS DONT LIE BUT THEY DONT ALWAYS TELL YOU THE TRUTH

  • Njsum1

    @rog11sm said...

    I once saw willie mcghee go 5 for 5 off of a good pitcher and not 1 ball left the infield. The pitcher owned his ass and he wasn’t seeing the ball worth a damn. yet he was 5 for 5.
    NUMBERS DONT LIE BUT THEY DONT ALWAYS TELL YOU THE TRUTH

    5 for 5 with five singles doesn’t mean much to any respectable bvp truther.

  • 2Slik

    BvP is a useful tool. I think a lot of the confusion is to what extent. That’s where experience comes into play. In smaller samples I completely ignore batting average but look for 2B/3B/HR and SO’s. If a guy is 1/10 with 6 SO’s or 5/10 with 2 HR’s and 2 doubles this is a discernible difference. Which both pitcher and hitter are aware of. At the same time baseball has so much variance no data can make a pick a must play. If you have a metric that’s contrary to the pundits, the ownership typically has been slanted far enough in your favor to act on it.

  • neogamer

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    There have been infinite posts, challenges, and arguments about BvP over the years. The bottom line is to use the stats and methods that work for you. You picked an ice cold offense with likely overpriced bats against one of the hottest pitchers in baseball on a full slate of games. Fantasy players did not fade this game due to their “hatred” of BvP, but because it made very little sense to go that route with so many options. You did find a low owned stack that went off which is a massive key in winning in GPP’s. I think the majority will agree, regardless of their opinion on “BvP”, that using just one metric to fuel your fantasy selections is not a good idea. Congrats on your win!

  • stellagirl

    I rarely look at (or, more accurately, rarely make a decision) based on BvP.

    Part of the problem that has been pointed out is sample size.

    Take tomorrow’s main slate for example – There are some inter-league games as well as some new pitchers which make BvP almost useless:

    Nola v Brewers: All but one Brewer’s player has less than 10 career plate appearances vs Nola.
    Hardy vs Detroit: No Detroit player has seen Hardy more for more than 9 PA’s
    Keller at Houston: ZERO data – not a single PA against him. And I’m thinking Houston might have a good game…..
    Anderson vs Phillies: All but one Brewer’s Phillies has less than 10 career plate appearances vs Anderson.
    Bundy at Miami: Again, all but 1 Marlin’s player have basically never faced him (less than 10 PA’s)
    Musgrove, Gray, Richards, and Font have never faced any player from their respective opponents – ZERO data

    In all……. all but 9 batters playing in every game tomorrow have less than 25 PA’s against their opposing pitcher. That makes BvP virtually and utterly worthless tomorrow.

    Also, players change over their careers. Pitchers get old and pitch to contact, develop a new pitch or move from starter to reliever. Batters slow down, bulk up, change ballparks, or change their approach at the plate. For me, it’s just way down the list of things I care about.

    But then again, I am no pro, and only have a handful of smaller top 5 GPP finishes, so take what I say with a grain of salt!

  • BigRay

    The one contest BVP works well in is Showdown. Especially division games where guys have a bigger sample size against opponent. I am not saying use it with out diving a little deeper, but it is a good place to start. In large slates, with all the magnitude of match-ups, it is less effective.

  • Eblase78

    • Blogger of the Month

    @rog11sm said...

    I once saw willie mcghee go 5 for 5 off of a good pitcher and not 1 ball left the infield. The pitcher owned his ass and he wasn’t seeing the ball worth a damn. yet he was 5 for 5.
    NUMBERS DONT LIE BUT THEY DONT ALWAYS TELL YOU THE TRUTH

    Slick Willie was also one of the greatest slap hitters of this generation and infield singles were pretty common for him. But you make a good point. I look at HR first and then XBH when scoping BvP

  • FrancisBooth

    Funny that someone with Cubbies in their SN mentions CHC owning Wacha and makes no mention of the fact that most of those numbers probably came at Wrigley when the wind was blowing out. And yes I realize yesterday wasn’t Wrigley.

  • GaryScott59

    There is little value in a couple games worth of results but if a batter has good numbers over 20 plus at bats and does not K much, that is useful information. However the pitcher is aware that the batter is owning him and may pitch more carefully to a guy with 4hr and a .400 obp off of him.

  • noddy

    There are pitchers that own hitters and hitters that own pitchers. You do not need huge sample sizes to understand this.

  • mistermoneybags

    BvP can be very useful if used right; specifically, in identifying scrubs who hit certain pitchers well. Good hitters can generally hit any pitcher well (or good enough); scrubs can’t. So when the stats indicate a proclivity of certain scrubs to handle certain pitchers well I think that is a useful data point. Not to mention it serves to identify potentially significant salary relief.

  • Jvanspro

    @Cubbies724 said...

    Everyone hates on BVP, and I can’t see why. Yes, small sample sizes are often completely irrelevant and shouldn’t be considered, but BVP when you have a few years of matchups can be really useful.

    For example, the Cubs have absolutely crushed Michael Wacha since 2015, yet the Cubs were one of the least popular stacks of the day. Yes, they’ve been struggling and Wachsman is been solid, but the history is just too good to pass up on. Seeing Happ has 2 HR in less than 10 at bats at least tells us he can see him well. BVP overtime should be, in my opinion, one of the primary pieces of research in creating a lineup.

    So my Cubs stack on the day put me in first for 2K in the new two entry max $150 entry fee contest. Feel free to share your thoughts below.

    Sounds to me your hit had more to do with you being a fan of the Cubs and less to do with Bvp. Congrats on the win but bvp is a stat with a small sample and a ton of noise. Long term you will lose.

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