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  • Cdmjlt369

    I’m just wondering if anyone here that’s fairly successful uses bvp data? Is it misleading? Do you use it if it confirms certain other data? Is any data really reliable or do you just pick a couple games and stack? Would love to hear people’s opinions, please. Thanks in advance.

  • iron_tactics

    I’m still trying to figure it out myself but sometimes it does hit, and sometimes it doesn’t. I think you need to use BvP to kind of confirm your research or make you see what you’re missing. If Batter A is in a fantastic spot against Pitcher A by the numbers, but you look at BvP and in 33 ABs they have like 2 hits then something may be missing from the equation.

  • MTro86

    RG Writer

    Exit velocity and HRs. And since EV is a fairly new stat, you can be sure you’re using recent information. I’ve never even looked at batting average.

  • draped

    for me it is a very, very small factor. for 99% of the cases the sample size is too small and there is no way to confidently say whether the BvP data is significant or not. that being said there are a few times where BvP can be some sort of factor in my decision making process. For me it has to be some combination of the bullets below to be even a small factor in my decisions.

    - Strange circumstances: knuckle balls are the first thing that comes to my mind here. I would be much more willing to factor in BvP vs a knuckle ball pitcher especially one like RA Dickey who throws the knuckle ball harder than most. again still not a huge factor for me, but maybe a small one.

    - Division rivals: sometimes division rivals who have been playing for years have a decent sample size (still not anything to be confident about).

    - Very, very large discrepancies: if a guy is batting .350 with 4 HRs in 50 PAs then to me that small increase from his normal stats to his BvP is not enough for me to say that with expected regression he is any better vs this pitcher than someone else. But if someone had 10 HRs in 25 PAs, then even with the expected regression you would still have some confidence that he is better vs this pitcher than someone else. Depending on the amount of PAs and how drastic the BvP is relative to his normal statistics it could cause BvP to be a small factor.

    Overall, the sample size just isn’t large enough to rely on the metrics you want (ISO, BABIP, wOBA, Exit velocity, etc) so you are stuck relying on less predictive stats (BA, SLUG, HRs, etc). I definitely completely ignore BvP 95-99% of the time.

  • Yacht67

    Yeah bvp is interesting.

  • txdave41

    If you are going to use bvp, I think you have to at least dig deeper and look at home/away splits. Maybe they were only good against that pitcher at home. Also, if that batter is on a cold streak, I tend to avoid like Maurer today.

  • Njsum1

    BVP if for sure a tool, yet it’s not THE tool. It should be the last thing you look at to confirm your research. As mentioned above, the numbers can be muddy due to changes in venue, skill, small samples, etc. I look at Xtra base hits, walks and strikeouts. Singles are largely a function of babip, so if I want to know if a batter really sees a pitcher well or not Xtra base hits, walks and strikeouts will usually tell the tale.

  • Heterodox

    @txdave41 said...

    Also, if that batter is on a cold streak, I tend to avoid like Maurer today.

    So now you’re introducing streaks into the conversation? I can’t believe how often I see people referring to hot or cold batters, just like I can’t believe how often I see people referring to BvP. People talk about both of these things like something you look at on the margins, after looking at everything else, but then when they talk about who they like on a slate it sounds like those are the only things they’re actually considering.

    There are many problems here. One, the fact that someone is hot or cold, or the fact that someone has done well or poorly vs a pitcher, does not mean that that trend will continue. It might not even be a trend. It could just be a fluke. Two, even if you have sample size for BvP, much of that sample might no longer be relevant. Two players in the same division might face each other 100+ times over a span of several years, but they also develop and change as players over that time. Three, even if you have data that seems to confirm what you think is a trend, you could save yourself the trouble of looking at BvP, and just look at that data. You will be less likely to fall into the traps of groupthink or confirmation bias.

    There are a lot of interesting articles on both streaks and BvP. Google them. There’s actual math and rigorous analysis out there, rather than people simply telling you that something works for them or doesn’t. My take is that whatever benefit you get from looking at BvP is negated by the fact that you are likely to overweight it, and are likely to distract yourself in the process of finding the information and then digging in on how much you think it means.

  • CUTiger81

    Sports can’t be solved with a math equation or a projection. BvP absolutely is a thing and it definitely matters. There’s a number of different factors that could all be in play but I have no doubts that it is indeed a factor.

  • Heterodox

    @CUTiger81 said...

    Sports can’t be solved with a math equation or a projection. BvP absolutely is a thing and it definitely matters. There’s a number of different factors that could all be in play but I have no doubts that it is indeed a factor.

    1) math has a role, no one’s saying it “solves” anything. But it has been absent from this thread, and is in general absent from this forum

    2) Whether or not it’s (BvP) a factor is not the issue. It’s whether or not it’s a useful factor, whether or not you can effectively work it into your process, even if you can identify where it’s right and where it isn’t, and whether or not it’s a better factor than something else is the real issue.

  • draped

    @Heterodox said...

    2) Whether or not it’s (BvP) a factor is not the issue. It’s whether or not it’s a useful factor, whether or not you can effectively work it into your process, even if you can identify where it’s right and where it isn’t, and whether or not it’s a better factor than something else is the real issue.

    this!! no one is saying that BvP is not a factor. the real question is whether it is information that you can use to your advantage. essentially is there a way for you to know with reasonable confidence that the BvP is accurate and not just you observing randomness. and the answer is no for most cases, at least compared to other factors that have much greater abilities to predict outcomes.

    a lot of analyzing events with high variance short term results, but also consistent long term results (which baseball is a great example of) is trying to separate the actual trends from the randomness. with certain factors its a lot easier than others.

    EDIT: and im going to ignore the fact the guy above you said math is irrelevant….

  • CheeseIsGood

    MLB Premium Director

    • 34

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    This is an article I wrote about BvP a couple years ago with my thoughts;
    https://rotogrinders.com/articles/mlb-dfs-the-truth-about-bvp-770113

  • Heterodox

    @draped said...

    essentially is there a way for you to know with reasonable confidence that the BvP is accurate and not just you observing randomness. and the answer is no for most cases, at least compared to other factors that have much greater abilities to predict outcomes.

    That, and even if the answer is yes, was there some other way to arrive at the same place with less error and less effort required.

  • MHDU2424

    As a former Baseball player I have to agree that BvP is a thing….there were certain pitchers where you just saw the ball well and others which had your number for whatever reason

    Have to think the same thing still applies even on the highest level

    It’s just one of those human elements that exists

  • Cdmjlt369

    Thanks for the replies guys. I’m going to start using it only as confirmation for what I already think. It will be what I look at last. Having said that, I usually do pretty well with picking my pitchers. Hitting always seems to get me lately. Always one or two guys in my lineup with a zero. Just trying to figure out how to avoid so many duds. I think maybe I’m considering too much info( overload). Anyone got a simplified approach for hitter selection?

  • balladamus

    Can someone tell me where you can find exit velocity information? Thanks in advance.

  • Jvanspro

    http://m.mlb.com/statcast/leaderboard#exit-velo,r,2017

  • txdave41

    @Heterodox said...

    So now you’re introducing streaks into the conversation? I can’t believe how often I see people referring to hot or cold batters, just like I can’t believe how often I see people referring to BvP. People talk about both of these things like something you look at on the margins, after looking at everything else, but then when they talk about who they like on a slate it sounds like those are the only things they’re actually considering.

    There are many problems here. One, the fact that someone is hot or cold, or the fact that someone has done well or poorly vs a pitcher, does not mean that that trend will continue. It might not even be a trend. It could just be a fluke.

    Well obviously a players streak could end or begin at any time, but to dismiss it completely is to forget that psychology is a big factor in performance. If a batter starts to get on a cold streak, that can mess with their confidence level. Cause them to get desperate and swing hard and miss more increasing the likelihood that the cold will continue. For example, Bautista has been ice cold for a month until he finally had a good game. We know that this not typical Bautista.

    OTOH, I think one reason stacks work is because teammates confidence level rises when they see their teammates getting to that pitcher.

  • noddy

    Anyone who has played sports at a decent level should know that hot and cold streaks are real. And players do better or worse against other players. Heck even teams do. Of course there are many factors to consider when it comes to bvp, but to think that certain hitters don’t do better or worse against certain pitchers would be foolish. Of course they do. This is sports. And just because some hitter has done great against a pitcher doesn’t mean he can’t go 0-4

  • BigRay

    You have to look at different things. Look at Steven Souza vs. Pineda. I think he is 6 of 18 with 3 HRs. Pretty good. But he had one game where he went 4-4 with 3 HRs. So you have a small sample size that shows he was on one day. I like bvp when the samples size is 35+ which usually are guys that are inter division

  • ATL_Gunner

    I think BvP is real. I don’t know that I can consistently determine what BvP is real and what BvP is a fluke. So I don’t really use it as a part of building lineups often.

    I will definitely consider it on a smaller slate with no great options at a position, or if I’m in a tournament and the “good” options are going to be very chalky. It’s more lottery ticket than reasoned analysis though.

  • Priptonite

    • Blogger of the Month

    @noddy said...

    Anyone who has played sports at a decent level should know that hot and cold streaks are real. And players do better or worse against other players. Heck even teams do. Of course there are many factors to consider when it comes to bvp, but to think that certain hitters don’t do better or worse against certain pitchers would be foolish. Of course they do. This is sports. And just because some hitter has done great against a pitcher doesn’t mean he can’t go 0-4

    It’s not a question of whether or not they are real, it’s a question of whether or not they hold any predictive value.

  • walkoff9

    • 995

      RG Overall Ranking

    @Priptonite said...

    It’s not a question of whether or not they are real, it’s a question of whether or not they hold any predictive value.

    Exactly

    Anyone who has played sports knows they are real, but should also know you can go from red hot and feeling great at the plate to suddenly feeling like your swing is totally broken.

  • Njsum1

    Great little test of BVP versus splits, mixed in with some hot/cold streak going on today in the early slate. Alex Avila is 0 for 11 versus Iwakuma with 3 strikeouts. However, iwakuma isn’t the same pitcher he’s been in years past, has been getting mashed by lefties and is in a hitters park today. Avila is on fire lately and has been destroying righties this year. The outcome will be very telling as to whether BVP can be a predictor or not, at least in the case of Avila versus Iwakuma. Also the results won’t tell the whole tale, it will be the type of contact or lack thereof I’m curious to see.

  • balladamus

    @Jvanspro said...

    http://m.mlb.com/statcast/leaderboard#exit-velo,r,2017

    Thanks!

  • tonytone1908

    @BigRay said...

    You have to look at different things. Look at Steven Souza vs. Pineda. I think he is 6 of 18 with 3 HRs. Pretty good. But he had one game where he went 4-4 with 3 HRs. So you have a small sample size that shows he was on one day. I like bvp when the samples size is 35+ which usually are guys that are inter division

    That’s definitely something people overlook. One great game can completely skew the numbers and make it look more promising than it is because that means most of the other games he may have gotten owned.

    I also find it funny that many times guys with amazing BvP’s with dozens of AB’s to base it on, those dudes end up not even playing most times. I get so excited to play the guy the night before and then it really really makes me have to change my LU around. However, when a guy has 9 career HR’s against Jered Weaver and the wind is blowing out and he actually DOES play, he’s usually guaranteed at least 1 dong. How effective that HR is and how well he does the rest of the night is key too but honestly, I just shouldn’t even bother looking at them because, of course, they’re too good to be true.

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