STRATEGY FORUM

Comments

  • Jemaneye

    • Ranked #30

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Can a sport in DFS just not be your sport. I have dabbled in every sport in DFS all the way down to esports/WNBA and i was able to learn the heck out of some esports and WNBA but when it comes to MLB…i can get a leg up on anything. I have been playing it for 4 years on and off and its just making me think can MLB just be the one sport that i should not play. I dont win consistently and when i do its pretty much my money back. How can this be the one sport where i can see others pick the perfect bats from every game/match up and i always pick the wrong stacks. Its so confusing and annoying at the same time. Is it time to give up on MLB or keep digging to find a process that works because the numbers arent working for me.

  • DFSx42

    Baseball is my best sport. I often go weeks and months of losing money. Take Mike Trout, he’s the best player. He started preseason as the highest rated player, will likely end the year as the highest rated player. Each and every night he’s usually the highest projected player.

    Mike Trout is as good a bet finish the year as one of the best DFS plays as anything. You can set your watch to his annual production. But on any given night or any given week he’s often not even among the top 20 OF when it comes to results. If Harden is outside the top 20 it’s going to break the forum where people complain about it non stop. If trout goes 0-5, giving you nothing despite paying up for him as the most expensive player, it’s just another Tuesday.

    My point is that baseball, when broken down into DFS is incredibly random so just because you’re losing in it now, doesn’t mean your process is necessarily wrong.

    However, it would be remiss of me to not point out the obvious. You’re spreading yourself too thinly and it sounds more like gambling addiction than +EV plays. You’re playing slates of things you know absolutely nothing about, against people who’s literal job it is to research and prepare for this and you expect to have a positive outcome? You think you can wing it and somehow magically end up in the elite top 10% that manage to just break even?

    You should definitely trim any sports you aren’t winning in as well as anything else that you don’t understand on an expert level. No chance you are an expert in everything from WNBA to esports. You’re honestly better off playing straight up games of chance than engaging in a game of skill where you don’t have any.

    It goes without saying though that if it’s just for fun money like a few bucks a slate then go ahead and have it.

  • sjmay111

    @DFSx42 said...

    Baseball is my best sport. I often go weeks and months of losing money. Take Mike Trout, he’s the best player. He started preseason as the highest rated player, will likely end the year as the highest rated player. Each and every night he’s usually the highest projected player.

    Mike Trout is as good a bet finish the year as one of the best DFS plays as anything. You can set your watch to his annual production. But on any given night or any given week he’s often not even among the top 20 OF when it comes to results. If Harden is outside the top 20 it’s going to break the forum where people complain about it non stop. If trout goes 0-5, giving you nothing despite paying up for him as the most expensive player, it’s just another Tuesday.

    My point is that baseball, when broken down into DFS is incredibly random so just because you’re losing in it now, doesn’t mean your process is necessarily wrong.

    However, it would be remiss of me to not point out the obvious. You’re spreading yourself too thinly and it sounds more like gambling addiction than +EV plays. You’re playing slates of things you know absolutely nothing about, against people who’s literal job it is to research and prepare for this and you expect to have a positive outcome? You think you can wing it and somehow magically end up in the elite top 10% that manage to just break even?

    You should definitely trim any sports you aren’t winning in as well as anything else that you don’t understand on an expert level. No chance you are an expert in everything from WNBA to esports. You’re honestly better off playing straight up games of chance than engaging in a game of skill where you don’t have any.

    It goes without saying though that if it’s just for fun money like a few bucks a slate then go ahead and have it.

    DFS,

    Just curious, how much are you playing a night/week vs winning a season etc? I do this for fun/learning, yesterday spent a whole whopping dollar and won $.50 lol, so it’s not going to break me, but I (along probably others) would love to be able to say we make a living at this (not that I am saying that) but besides number crunching, and making the plays etc, from my understanding it’s what, 3-4 GPP wins a season that turns it into a winning season? Or is it more the cash games 50/50 etc?

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    You already know the answer. Give up, enjoy the summer and save for bankroll for football.

  • jtkucheck

    I know this feeling all too well. NBA is simply not my sport. That might make me sound like a fish, because NBA is so easy/predictable according to most pros, but I am awful at it. It took me a while to figure out why, but ultimately it boils down to two things:

    1) I have a difficult time removing bias. I anchor on players that performed well when I rostered them, and I FOMO on players that blow up when I don’t roster them and feel like should have. I don’t do either of these things in any other sport, but I do in NBA because I feel like I “should have known”. Perhaps a behavioral expert can elaborate on what exact bias this is, but it was affecting my results enough that I noticed.

    2) I have a difficult time embracing variance. Players get in foul trouble, head to the dreaded locker room, have an off night shooting, or simply defer to a teammate who is on a heater, and all of it can ruin your lineups. In NBA, you generally only need one bogey to be eliminated from any real money, and typically even from cashing. So, you have to go 8 for 8 (on DK) of impressive stat lines unaffected by all the variance that can occur in order to be successful. I can’t go 8 for 8 on anything in life, so why should I expect it to be any different here? In MLB or NFL, one bad score (or even one zero) won’t kill you, which is why, for me, it’s a lot easier to stomach variance and take risks, which is the best mentality to have for GPPs.

    So yes, NBA is very much not my sport. It likely never will be. I don’t play much of it, or for much money. I certainly don’t expect to win. As long as you understand your own strengths and weaknesses, you can adjust your action accordingly and come out way ahead.

  • Jemaneye

    • Ranked #30

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @jtkucheck said...

    I know this feeling all too well. NBA is simply not my sport. That might make me sound like a fish, because NBA is so easy/predictable according to most pros, but I am awful at it. It took me a while to figure out why, but ultimately it boils down to two things:

    1) I have a difficult time removing bias. I anchor on players that performed well when I rostered them, and I FOMO on players that blow up when I don’t roster them and feel like should have. I don’t do either of these things in any other sport, but I do in NBA because I feel like I “should have known”. Perhaps a behavioral expert can elaborate on what exact bias this is, but it was affecting my results enough that I noticed.

    2) I have a difficult time embracing variance. Players get in foul trouble, head to the dreaded locker room, have an off night shooting, or simply defer to a teammate who is on a heater, and all of it can ruin your lineups. In NBA, you generally only need one bogey to be eliminated from any real money, and typically even from cashing. So, you have to go 8 for 8 (on DK) of impressive stat lines unaffected by all the variance that can occur in order to be successful. I can’t go 8 for 8 on anything in life, so why should I expect it to be any different here? In MLB or NFL, one bad score (or even one zero) won’t kill you, which is why, for me, it’s a lot easier to stomach variance and take risks, which is the best mentality to have for GPPs.

    So yes, NBA is very much not my sport. It likely never will be. I don’t play much of it, or for much money. I certainly don’t expect to win. As long as you understand your own strengths and weaknesses, you can adjust your action accordingly and come out way ahead.

    I knew i wasn’t the only one. I hear people often say they took a break during “insert” season and I always wondered why. if you’re good at dfs and the stats and the numbers, why can you be good at “insert” sport. Its not that i don’t follow MLB cause i do…it just doesn’t click. Thanks for the reply. Very interesting.

  • DFSx42

    @sjmay111 said...

    DFS,

    Just curious, how much are you playing a night/week vs winning a season etc? I do this for fun/learning, yesterday spent a whole whopping dollar and won $.50 lol, so it’s not going to break me, but I (along probably others) would love to be able to say we make a living at this (not that I am saying that) but besides number crunching, and making the plays etc, from my understanding it’s what, 3-4 GPP wins a season that turns it into a winning season? Or is it more the cash games 50/50 etc?

    I max enter the Yahoo gpps (about $200-300 per mlb slate) and create about 1k worth of h2hs each slate. Sometimes nobody takes a single h2h, other times they get gobbled up and I need to make more. Playing this amount of volume, I’m nowhere near close enough to be able to financially support myself from DFS.

    My action is very inconsistent and each week another player adds me to their block list and that dries up action to the point of just facing off vs Moklovin for rollz or doing what I do now, creating matchups and see if anyone feels like playing.

    On Yahoo I’m one of the more active regs, if I played the same volume on another site I’d go completely unnoticed.

    For your winning season type of stuff, that’s largely dependent on the format. If you’re doing a $1 100 man single entry you’ll be a net loser over the course of the season winning it 3-4 times a year unless you hit 2nd, 3rd, and 4th a whole lot as well. If you win the milly maker even once over the course of 20 years of attempts then that’s all you need. GPP is significantly harder to get paid off but if you’re just playing a buck or two then it’s probably more fun chasing the much larger payout multiples a GPP offers.

    A big argument for MME isn’t that 150 entries gives you a better chance at winning (it’s mathematically proven to lower payout expectations), it’s that if you have a 15% edge over the field, that means you’ll be a profitable player under a long enough sample size. Doing 150 entries per slate helps realize that edge with more samples.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @sochoice said...

    You already know the answer. Give up, enjoy the summer and save for bankroll for football.

    Seriously though.
    Been doing DFS for five years, this is by far the best answer.
    At this point of my (I won’t call it career) DFS experience, this is the absolute, end game strategy.

    NFL is the only sport where there profit margins are not only worthwhile, but so worthwhile that the knowledge edge is irrelevant. You can know a little, have a top 100 finish and change your life on one LU. Few years ago you could get away with dabbling in random sports not knowing anything and have a chance at pulling a profit. Now, there is no loose ends anymore, the knowledge market has tightened up to the point if you don’t know a sport (other than NFL) you are battling against literally the entire world to simply min-cash.

    I used to play and coach soccer at the highest levels in/of amateur North America. This is/was my edge. It was more profound in previous years, now it’s barely an edge anymore and I’m considering how profitable Soccer DFS is going forward (hint: until prize-pools increase, it won’t be). My edge is borderline worthless, so if you have no knowledge, well, you are buying a lottery ticket, hoping to get lucky on an LU.

    If you are buying a lottery ticket on an LU, do it in NFL when you can change your life. Why buy a lottery ticket on a sport or prize pool that won’t change your life?
    NFL is the only sport that matters anymore. It’s the only viable DFS sport coming into 2019/2020.

  • AVivier

    @sirrobert6 said...

    Seriously though.
    Been doing DFS for five years, this is by far the best answer.
    At this point of my (I won’t call it career) DFS experience, this is the absolute, end game strategy.

    NFL is the only sport where there profit margins are not only worthwhile, but so worthwhile that the knowledge edge is irrelevant. You can know a little, have a top 100 finish and change your life on one LU. Few years ago you could get away with dabbling in random sports not knowing anything and have a chance at pulling a profit. Now, there is no loose ends anymore, the knowledge market has tightened up to the point if you don’t know a sport (other than NFL) you are battling against literally the entire world to simply min-cash.

    I used to play and coach soccer at the highest levels in/of amateur North America. This is/was my edge. It was more profound in previous years, now it’s barely an edge anymore and I’m considering how profitable Soccer DFS is going forward (hint: until prize-pools increase, it won’t be). My edge is borderline worthless, so if you have no knowledge, well, you are buying a lottery ticket, hoping to get lucky on an LU.

    If you are buying a lottery ticket on an LU, do it in NFL when you can change your life. Why buy a lottery ticket on a sport or prize pool that won’t change your life?
    NFL is the only sport that matters anymore. It’s the only viable DFS sport coming into 2019/2020.

    The opposite of this is pretty close to the perfect way to think and play.

  • DaBum2012

    • 2018 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    Do what I did-start messing around with them $0.25 entries first to see who the good players are and good teams too. If I’m unfamiliar with a sport or players, all I do is start off with $0.25 entries to practice and get comfortable with players and once I see I can do OK in it, then I start spending a bit more in entry fees. This is good practice and if you do lose, you’re just losing a quarter-not $10-$15 on an entry. Then go see what other entrants were doing to win as well. Look at stats they provide you in the news and look at how well each player did. I did this a lot all last year and started getting better and better at it. I went from being the worst MLB person at the beginning of last year to winning a WFBC seat and finishing 29th in the tournament (which is kinda good for a newbie in those types of tournaments-usually newbies finish dead last for someone’s first time at one of those). I also use a notebook too to take notes about stats too that helped me out too.

  • me_mike84

    DFS reminds me a lot of poker. yes, there is some skill involved but also a lot is gut instinct, feel and pure luck.

    i am not a high stakes player….i usually do $1-$5 entries per night. i like to dabble in all of the sports (been enjoying golf a lot recently) i would say that yes, you might have a better feel for some sports over others. MLB is tough….especially when you have such a big slate w/ 10+ games. like another person posted, in MLB you can have a guy in your lineup put up a goose egg and still cash unlike NBA. but overall i find MLB to be my weakest of the ones I play.

    i don’t do spreadsheets and all that stuff…i don’t have the time. i’ll read a few articles or come to the forum to get a starting point and run with it. i do it for fun. gives me something to do on any given night of the week. i find when you take a step back approach you enjoy it more and even win a little bit more too.

    whenever i have done too much research i find myself second guessing and altering my lineup way too much. and those are the nights i almost never cash

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @AVivier said...

    The opposite of this is pretty close to the perfect way to think and play.

    Yes, if you wish to grind out results slate after slate or build a bankroll, that is how it’s done.
    However, grinding isn’t as viable/valuable as it used to be when the market wasn’t so tight.

    I’m not too concerned because there’s a lot more successful people who have been doing this longer than I, they converted too as they see the value of DFS slipping away.

    Find what you want from DFS and work it. If it’s grinding, then grind. But after years of grinding out results and profits I’m finding the level my skill is at isn’t equal to the results of a grind; it’s not worthwhile for me anymore. I’ve ground out what I needed. I can grind or save up for NFL, in either case I’ll still be in generally the same place come the time of NFL because no amount of grind will dramatically change my place in life as there’s no profit margin big enough.

    Save up for NFL, it’s the only sport where you don’t have to grind anymore.

  • d735123

    @sirrobert6 said...

    Yes, if you wish to grind out results slate after slate or build a bankroll, that is how it’s done.
    However, grinding isn’t as viable/valuable as it used to be when the market wasn’t so tight.

    I’m not too concerned because there’s a lot more successful people who have been doing this longer than I, they converted too as they see the value of DFS slipping away.

    Find what you want from DFS and work it. If it’s grinding, then grind. But after years of grinding out results and profits I’m finding the level my skill is at isn’t equal to the results of a grind; it’s not worthwhile for me anymore. I’ve ground out what I needed. I can grind or save up for NFL, in either case I’ll still be in generally the same place come the time of NFL because no amount of grind will dramatically change my place in life as there’s no profit margin big enough.

    Save up for NFL, it’s the only sport where you don’t have to grind anymore.

    Yup. I’m pretty much in the same place you are. When the people who used to make money in a field now instead make their money by selling books/programs/services/whatever called “how to make money in the field”, you know the jig is up. Whatever field it is. It’s a version of the bigger sucker principle.

  • lpdev

    There is plenty of edge and easy money left to be made in every sport. There was a time when just having a spreadsheet loaded with data made you special and gave you a one-up over the field. That’s not the case anymore. Everyone has the data and tools now. That doesn’t mean the edge is gone. It just means the early free money is gone and you actually have to work a little bit to find your edge nowadays.

  • d735123

    @lpdev said...

    There is plenty of edge and easy money left to be made in every sport. There was a time when just having a spreadsheet loaded with data made you special and gave you a one-up over the field. That’s not the case anymore. Everyone has the data and tools now. That doesn’t mean the edge is gone. It just means the early free money is gone and you actually have to work a little bit to find your edge nowadays.

    I suspect it’s not intentional, but this is exactly what the people selling the books/programs/services/whatever say.

  • lpdev

    @d735123 said...

    I suspect it’s not intentional, but this is exactly what the people selling the books/programs/services/whatever say.

    Haha, well since you mentioned it I have this snake oil that improves your lineups.For the small recurring fee of $19.99 /month I’ll send you shipments. Just apply it to the back of your neck twice a day and enjoy the cash rolling in. If you’d like..I can send you a picture I had taken next to someone else’s Ferrari and some sketchy winning screen captures from the DK app to validate my skills.

  • d735123

    @lpdev said...

    Haha, well since you mentioned it I have this snake oil that improves your lineups.For the small recurring fee of $19.99 /month I’ll send you shipments. Just apply it to the back of your neck twice a day and enjoy the cash rolling in. If you’d like..I can send you a picture I had taken next to someone else’s Ferrari and some sketchy winning screen captures from the DK app to validate my skills.

    Lol. Where do I sign up?

  • DFSx42

    That’s way too steep, someone on Reddit (where I repost my RG blog) pm’d me offering a whopping 50 cents per lineup each day to be delivered to their discord (yes it was a group of like 100). So they were basically pooling together 1 cent each to have a cash line personally delivered to to them exactly 20 minutes before lock each day.

    I didn’t even know where to begin. Advised him that if anyone would ever accept that deal they aren’t giving you anything worthwhile. This group of 50 or so literally thought for $15 a month they could all become profitable overnight.

  • cgg716

    DFS, I’m a good MLB player. A few GPP wins in my time, it’s my best sport, but you need to be ready to lose more than any other sport as people stated above, because there is no such thing as a safe play, well a safe bat. You’re research could be on the nose, and you can finish last. Lower what you’re playing if you’re not comfortable with that. Play for a few bucks a slate, heads up, study the opposing lines. Also I’d be happy to help, let me know

  • AVivier

    @me_mike84 said...

    DFS reminds me a lot of poker. yes, there is some skill involved but also a lot is gut instinct, feel and pure luck.

    i am not a high stakes player….i usually do $1-$5 entries per night. i like to dabble in all of the sports (been enjoying golf a lot recently) i would say that yes, you might have a better feel for some sports over others. MLB is tough….especially when you have such a big slate w/ 10+ games. like another person posted, in MLB you can have a guy in your lineup put up a goose egg and still cash unlike NBA. but overall i find MLB to be my weakest of the ones I play.

    i don’t do spreadsheets and all that stuff…i don’t have the time. i’ll read a few articles or come to the forum to get a starting point and run with it. i do it for fun. gives me something to do on any given night of the week. i find when you take a step back approach you enjoy it more and even win a little bit more too.

    whenever i have done too much research i find myself second guessing and altering my lineup way too much. and those are the nights i almost never cash

    “i don’t have the time. i’ll read a few articles or come to the forum to get a starting point and run with it. i do it for fun. gives me something to do on any given night of the week. i find when you take a step back approach you enjoy it more and even win a little bit more too.”

    I get it. It’s fun to throw a lineup in a millymaker, and at worst it’s good and cheap entertainment. I’m guilty of that too. But the OP is clearly a grinder and asking if it’s worth continuing the grind in baseball. Somehow that turned into YOLO.

    Anyway, I agree with what someone alluded to, if you’re asking the question, you likely know the answer.

  • wolfjb1

    @cgg716 said...

    because there is no such thing as a safe play, well a safe bat

    I would be interested in seeing how this has changed over the years. Paying up for top end pitching used to be safe. But with the way real life MLB has changed so that the three-true-outcomes approach is the norm (actually two true outcomes – K and HR), how often are the top projected pitchers even safe any more?

  • whoisjohngalt420

    @lpdev said...

    I have this snake oil that improves your lineups

  • cgg716

    Less so I would say, but bad offenses are still exploitable. If for the rest of the year, I took the pitchers against Det/CLE/MIA exclusively,I’d have a better ROI then if I took a 10k plus pitcher every night

  • ASalvaro

    concentrate on the late 2 or 3 game slates and you will do MUCH better..in the NBA or MLB when its a full slate of games winning big money is like playing the lotto..but when its a smaller slate you have a MUCH better chance

  • tonytone1908

    Maybe try taking DFS the way it was actually made to be? Advice I should take more advantage of myself, honestly. Play it for fun, a way to LEGALLY throw a few bucks on a game of your particular interest when you think your knowledge can best be used to it’s advantage. I’ve made my best wins basically betting on my favorite teams. I made almost $7k on short slates with higher buy-ins the first couple days Kyle Schwarber first got called up. Being a Cubs fan, I knew he did nothing but hit bombs, nobody had him or Hendricks who I have a Greg Maddux-like Cubby fan man crush on who killed it, and I played Montero at like 3% owned and hit a late dinger clinching the win for The Professor and boom! My boys did me well! Honestly don’t know why I don’t own a Schwarber jersey considering the man almost single handed made me 7 stacks in 2 days. Point being, maybe try focusing on smaller slates involving your favorite teams? If they’re in a good spot, stack em with a sleeper only you are on, if they’re in a bad spot then use your knowledge to build a smarter lineup fading them.

    Unfortunately the odds are highly in your favor that you’re going to lose your buy-in anyways. If you lose oh well, you had an 85% chance of that from the start. Take some chances, put some faith in your boys, and let the chips fall where they may. Believe me, it sucks to put in hours of research to have that all thrown out the window with an early ejection, injury, or that one “stud” dropping a dud. I’d be lying if I didn’t say my best wins came with lineups built minutes before lock.

    If you’re ME it’s a different story but if you’re a small buy-in SE guy it’s not worth all that time. Go with your gut, who you personally, by seeing with your own eye has been either hot or not, and take chances on that one guy you know nobody else is going to have. Strangely enough, like the old FD commercials. Chalk is chalk for a reason, it just takes that one diamond in the rough to take you to the top. If you’re a Memphis Grizzlies, or San Diego Padres, or Buffalo Bills fan, for some strange reason, use that to your advantage, even if that sometimes means just not playing altogether.

  • bohicabuddy

    • 823

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2015 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2018 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @sochoice said...

    You already know the answer. Give up, enjoy the summer and save for bankroll for football.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Sites mentioned in this thread

Use our links to sign up and deposit on sites listed in this thread to get these bonuses:

Subforum Index

New RotoGrinders Sports Betting Section!

Are you a DFS player who wants to get into sports betting?

If you have access to New Jersey sports betting, then use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code and our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get the best bonuses in the NJ industry.

Those who can take advantage of PA online sports betting should use our SugarHouse PA promo code to get the best sports betting bonus in Pennsylvania.

If you don't yet have access to an online sportsbook, check out Monkey Knife Fight, a prop betting platform available in 31 states. Use our Monkey Knife Fight promo code to get a fantastic bonus.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler