NHL FORUM

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  • kleraudio

    Hey there everyone. I’ve lost every night this season so far.

    I study all day. Advanced metrics. I have the NHL package offered here. My lineups in cash all seem solid, then they all flop to hell.

    Are you guys doing 2 man stacks in cash?

    I tend to play the $2 “BIG” double ups (5-7 entries) plus 2-4 entries on the $3 breakaway.

    I’ve min cashed a few times in the GPP’s but overall loser for the night.

    That NHL package is cool and all but I’d like to go a little broader. Is stacking the answer even in cash? Like a 2/2/2/ stack?

    I’ve been studying that package and other stuff online and theyre saying stacking is not a good idea in cash. Not stacking has cost me every single night though…

    GPP’s I get. Tough to win those out of the thousands of entrants, but cash should be more steady…

    Any ideas?

    EDIT: I’m a hockey fanatic. I watch mulitple games nightly. Been playing for years in adult league. I understand the game very well. Which boggles my mind even more that I can’t cash in this shit!

    Example of tonights cash lineup 10/22 ( I experimented with stacking tonight, as NOT stacking was killing me)

    Spezza
    Staal (MIN)
    Benn
    Toffoli
    Bobby Ryan
    Hoffman
    Werenski
    Ghost (killed it tonight)
    Martin Jones (lost, still got a decent score)

  • kleraudio

    Do you guys generally pick 4 or 5 teams to pick players from on a big slate like Tuesday? Or are you gaining access to more teams than that?

    Looking forward to making my cash line up tomorrow, even if I do catch my ass….. again….

  • SA16

    Sometimes you stack and sometimes you do not stack there’s really nothing more to say on it. It’s entirely a slate dependent thing. I’ve had days where I’ve had had 8 skaters on 8 different teams and days where I’ve had six skaters on the same team.

  • VChair23

    To reiterate an earlier reply, I would review professional NHL players in the double ups if you can find them. Arguably the best review for nightly lineups without access to professional/profitable players to bounce ideas off. Second thing, JMTOWIN’s rotoacademy course on NFL roster construction has been applicable to every sport for me and helped me tremendously

  • TimmerRC

    People have provided you with some great responses here. I’ll only add that sometimes, cash lineups require LESS thinking and FEWER analytics.

    Use more common sense stuff, imo. Don’t pick players up against shutdown teams like New Jersey. DO pick players against defensively anemic teams, like Calgary, who have given up more than 4 goals a game so far. Use common sense to decide which teams are in good positions, and then find the best lineup to get the most 1st or 2nd line players from those teams.

    For cash, I would never bother thinking of corsi etc. you aren’t trying to find the needle in the haystack, here, you are just trying to find solid points.

    Good luck!

  • kleraudio

    @TimmerRC said...

    People have provided you with some great responses here. I’ll only add that sometimes, cash lineups require LESS thinking and FEWER analytics.

    Use more common sense stuff, imo. Don’t pick players up against shutdown teams like New Jersey. DO pick players against defensively anemic teams, like Calgary, who have given up more than 4 goals a game so far. Use common sense to decide which teams are in good positions, and then find the best lineup to get the most 1st or 2nd line players from those teams.

    For cash, I would never bother thinking of corsi etc. you aren’t trying to find the needle in the haystack, here, you are just trying to find solid points.

    Good luck!

    Thanks this is great advice as well. I actually cashed all 6 of my entries last night, which felt good, even had a losing goalie and finished in top 10 out of the 100 man 50/50’s (helps that the losing goalie was as chalky as I’ve ever seen)

    I do like the 50/50 route vs the “big” double up. I wonder if I can gain access to the best lineups even if I didn’t play in the BIG double up the night prior?

    So you’re trying to get guys on the same line even in cash huh? Against defensively anemic teams of course. I didn’t stack at all yesterday really. Had STL goalie with Tarasenko, that’s as far as my stacking went.

  • JustDFSin

    Maybe you just suck.Just Kidding. It takes time sometimes. It may take you a whole season. If you come back next season saying you don’t ever cash then yeah you just plain suck.

  • xplorin16

    Im a degen who doesnt know the rules to hockey and have never watched a game yet I would say I have decent success at nhl. I dont pay for any incentives, I head over to rotowire and see the lines who play together. I pick a vegas fav goalie, then stack two lines together, and i usually play 4-5 variations of one or two goalies and stacks. To me it doesnt make sense to play players on the same team if they dont see the ice together. When you are able to get a goal and an assist or two from one score it really pays off versus playing a bunch of one offs and catching an occasional g or a from one player. I play fd mainly and the 12 points for the win is typically the difference in cashing or not. My two cents. Keep grinding buddy and try stacking lines in small stakes until you find what works for you.

  • kleraudio

    @xplorin16 said...

    Im a degen who doesnt know the rules to hockey and have never watched a game yet I would say I have decent success at nhl. I dont pay for any incentives, I head over to rotowire and see the lines who play together. I pick a vegas fav goalie, then stack two lines together, and i usually play 4-5 variations of one or two goalies and stacks. To me it doesnt make sense to play players on the same team if they dont see the ice together. When you are able to get a goal and an assist or two from one score it really pays off versus playing a bunch of one offs and catching an occasional g or a from one player. I play fd mainly and the 12 points for the win is typically the difference in cashing or not. My two cents. Keep grinding buddy and try stacking lines in small stakes until you find what works for you.

    Nice post thanks man. I’m talking mainly cash lines here though (50/50’s, double ups). I do like that technique for tournaments, but I usually don’t play 4-5 line ups in tournaments (though I should, bankroll says otherwise).

    That original line up I posted was the first time playing skaters on the same team but different lines, more of an experiment. A couple nights ago I had zero stacks and cashed easily, top 5 in most 50/50 100 mans. Last night I played 3 cash lines but with only 4 games on the slate it was kind of a crap shoot. I bubbled in all of them (52nd, 53rd, 51st..)

    I’ll keep grinding these $2 games till I figure it out.

    I also read that a 55% win rate is really good in 50/50’s and 60% is pretty unsustainable. How true is that?

  • horacegrant31

    I’m not sure where you read that but crunch the numbers yourself. Play $100 worth 50/50s at $1 to win $1.80 and if you win 55, you now have $99…

  • Superflysupa

    Trust the procesd

  • goldengoat29

    @Superflysupa said...

    Trust the procesd

    Are you a troll? — that’s pretty much all you ever say

  • goldengoat29

    Take what I say with a grain of salt — I have had my share of winning and losing. Losing has prevailed in the end. This may have more to do with bankroll management than anything. I have gone on good runs in cash then have begun to lose once more firmly investing, thus quickly nullifying any initial earnings. I may actually be a better than average player but my wagering has undone me.

    I have played (pretty much) exclusively on DraftKings but I cannot imagine the fundamentals and tenets to be diametrically different between services.

    DFS Cash in the NHL with all its wonderful variance is a precarious proposition. Moreover, as user horacegrant31 said, you can win 55% of the time and still come out behind. Even more disheartening is the skill it takes to win 55% of the time. Regardless of the stakes from $1 to infinity, you are pretty much facing the same competition. The best cash players typically flood nearly every 50/50 contest on the site.

    I have come to believe — the roster construction principles you would rely on for a GPP lineup are the opposite of what you would rely on for a cash lineup. For instance, in a GPP you should stack lines to maximize the amount of ‘boom’ you can get out of a lineup. In a GPP you are also striving to be contrarian to an appreciable extent.

    Cash is just the opposite. I don’t make it a point of stacking lines in cash. Not that I would disinclined to use two players from the same line, but it is not my intention like it would be in a GPP. I try to extract value from various places. Find the top players per their values. While some may argue with me on this point, I also think it is a good idea to conform. If there is a hot player in sexy matchup at a juicy price, whom you suspect many will own, make sure to take him. Beat the opposition on the strength of the rest of your lineup. If the said sexy player falters, I would rather go down with the masses than be in the dismissing minority if he thrives.

    I am also more partisan to players who shoot and/or block shots. Such players have greater floors and are generally more consistent. As a rule of thumb, for this reason, I think investing in defensemen is a better play. A player like Brent Burns may not hit the scoresheet but still deliver great value. As was the case on Thursday when he scored 6 points on DraftKings; he did not register a goal or an assist but had 5 Shots On Goal and 7 Blocked Shots. Defensemen tend to be less feast or famine than forwards. Contrary to a GPP, I will usually have a third defender in the UTL slot in a Cash lineup. On DraftKings, there are usually lesser but still great defensemen at bargain prices of $6000 or so. A player like Roman Josi, who may get both 200 shots and block 200 shots in a season, is an automatic when he is around that price. Pay attention to the likes of John Carlson (who was $5800 today) and Kris Letang, the former will turn it around at some point I am sure and the latter is poised to return from injury. Both are often exceptional values. I used Justin Faulk for $5300 today, another prolific shooter you should often give consideration to.

    For whatever reason, Taylor Hall is always criminally underpriced and at such low prices should be used regardless of matchup. A player like, say, Henrik Sedin is someone I would use (or more consider) in a GPP but never use in Cash (unless he was dirt cheap). In a GPP I’d take for him for correlation to his brother but he passes before he shoots and may give you a nice goose egg on a night he doesn’t hit the scoresheet. Who knows, the shot or two you didn’t get from a Henrik Sedin type may mean placing and not placing in a 50/50.

    As for a netminder, generally take one that is on a team favored to win by Vegas. Saves are important and since some teams (like the Kings) are so good at suppressing shots, the upside of their goaltenders is curtailed. Still, this matters more in a GPP where you are trying to maximize your output at the risk of busting.

    Hope this helps and good luck.

  • george8kl

    for a fresh perspective, check out www.leftwinglock.com – It’s a site for hardcore hockey heads, has all sorts of good info and an ongoing discussion forum about NHL related topics – I’ve used LWL for years for up to date starting goalies and morning skate/injury info for my DFS play – hope it helps :o)

  • Superflysupa

    @goldengoat29 said...

    Are you a troll? — that’s pretty much all you ever say

    I coach you to play the DFS nhl properly, let me know

  • maxeernst

    Some really good advice from @goldengoat29

  • BuffaloPat

    I have to agree with the others here and say that NHL cash games are a lost cause due to variance, but there is real money to make in GPPs. Line stacking is the way to go. Look for high scoring matchups (trust Vegas, they know what they are doing), and look to stack PP lines as approximately 30% of nhl goals are scored on powerplay and if they are on a PP line, it means more ice time as well.

  • maxeernst

    @BuffaloPat said...

    NHL cash games are a lost cause due to variance

    Don’t think many have said that regarding cash games and I would firmly disagree on this point.

    I’d also even venture to say that the skill gap isn’t as big as it used to be in GPPs, particularly with several high volume players now max-entering and stacking properly for the most part.

  • kellykip

    Also one other thing to keep in mind in terms of GPP handicapping is that a lot of what you hear is just ‘noise’, and should be disregarded. Things like someone posting that they are playing this guy or that guy because he ‘is overdue’, and ‘this is the perfect spot’, Don’t ever let that sway your opinion. Just because a top scorer is goal-less through 9 games and now gets Arizona at home, it is not a foregone conclusion that he will be potting a goal that night, but it IS very likely that his GPP ownership percentage will reflect the opinion that it is likely he will be scoring.

    There is absolutely no such thing as a player being likely to score a goal on any given night.

    Also, keep in mind the skill level of the DFSer giving his or her opinion. Someone who isn’t very skilled at it can sound just as convincing as a top player at a given DFS sport.

  • wisertime

    @maxeernst said...

    Don’t think many have said that regarding cash games and I would firmly disagree on this point.

    I’d also even venture to say that the skill gap isn’t as big as it used to be in GPPs, particularly with several high volume players now max-entering and stacking properly for the most part.

    the rise in entry fee from $2 to $3 on the FD breakaway GPP is really a killer for the smaller bankroll player. more than ever,in the FD Breakaway GPP, the odds of winning are now greatly increased for the high volume, max entry player. in my opinion, to atleast have a shot to consistantly win money in NHL GPPs you need to enter atleast 50-80 lineups each night. the problem is, the payouts are more top heavy than ever, so it’s a lot harder to break even each night, and the money drain from the 50% increase per each entry, is a lot quicker. I wish FD would lower the max entries in the $3 GPP breakaway contest, to 100 entries, to atleast try to even the playing field, between the max entry people and the smaller bankrolled players. just my opinion.

  • Scumpunch

    @BuffaloPat said...

    I have to agree with the others here and say that NHL cash games are a lost cause due to variance, but there is real money to make in GPPs. Line stacking is the way to go. Look for high scoring matchups (trust Vegas, they know what they are doing), and look to stack PP lines as approximately 30% of nhl goals are scored on powerplay and if they are on a PP line, it means more ice time as well.

    No, only around 22% of goals are scored on the PP, 3% are scored short-handed, and 75% are scored at even strength. Therefore, ES lines have a much higher correlation than PP lines for the vast majority of cases.

  • StanHalen

    @Superflysupa said...

    I coach you to play the DFS nhl properly, let me know

    Is the coaching in English?

  • umwoz

    I will say that Re: large GPP’s…. Don’t waste your time if you aren’t putting in multiple lineups.

    Lower bankroll players should stick to single entry/3 entry max tourneys. It’s unfortunate, but it’s true.

    That said, it’d be nice to see someone’s method for mass entering gpp’s as far as how many lineups get a certain stack. Making good picks is all good and fine but if your game theory isn’t right on par with your picks you’re screwed.

  • Superflysupa

    @maxeernst said...

    Don’t think many have said that regarding cash games and I would firmly disagree on this point.

    I’d also even venture to say that the skill gap isn’t as big as it used to be in GPPs, particularly with several high volume players now max-entering and stacking properly for the most part.

    Trust the process and it’s no trouble to take anyone down in cash.

  • wisertime

    @umwoz said...

    I will say that Re: large GPP’s…. Don’t waste your time if you aren’t putting in multiple lineups.

    Lower bankroll players should stick to single entry/3 entry max tourneys. It’s unfortunate, but it’s true.

    That said, it’d be nice to see someone’s method for mass entering gpp’s as far as how many lineups get a certain stack. Making good picks is all good and fine but if your game theory isn’t right on par with your picks you’re screwed.

    I agree. from my experiences, in FD large NHL GPPs, 50 to 80 lineups gave a person a decent shot to eventually take down some GPPs. the problem now, the entry prices went up and the payout structure is very top heavy. so there is very little wiggle room. it used to be set up, where on a typically night, even if you didn’t come in top 50 on any entries, you still had a chance to atleast break even or have marginal loses. now the entry cost is 50% higher, so a prolonged dry spell is basically disaster and the top heavy prize structure, doesn’t allow a person to break even as easily. because of the increased entry fees, a person is now suseptable to play less entries, with a small pool of teams they will stack. the higher entry fees basically favor the max entry people even more. in my opinion, the playing field between the lower bankroll and max entry people got wider.

  • maxeernst

    @Superflysupa said...

    Trust the process and it’s no trouble to take anyone down in cash.

    I’m not really sure how to address this.

    If one’s process is bad, it shouldn’t be trusted…..

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