MAIN FORUM

Comments

  • jv21

    • Ranked #67

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Hi all.

    I wanted to ask this since I am trying to get better at dfs and to play multiple sports. By game theory, I mean playing dfs like a game and making your decisions based on the rules AND what your opponents are doing. * This is assuming you know the basics of each sport eg scoring system, stacking etc

    So, do you do think someone can be successful at dfs just playing using (optimal) game theory? For example, using leverage, fading chalk, and making lineups that are contrarian.

    I am hating spending hours researching player data and they just bust. I figure if I get good at game theory, I should be able to put myself in better positions to win and to be able to play all sports.

    Any game theory advice helps too.

    Thanks, in advance.

  • mandrzejewski

    • Ranked #78

      RG Tiered Ranking

    This is a great question and something I have been testing the waters with myself since the restart. I am actually up quite a bit, on a relatively small bankroll though, on DK really focusing in on game theory.

    So how I have been playing is to really focus on the low owned plays, select some chalk and fade other obvious chalk. This sounds easy but its not always so easy to click the buttons when building those lineups (or clicking the “x” button in lineup HQ on an obviously great play). Low owned plays are going to be low owned for a reason and chalk is chalk for a reason.

    My initial investment has more than tripled but the path to get their has been rocky. And honestly a little lucky. One of my biggest wins was when Brooks Koepka chipped in on 17 at the Waste Management to vault one of my lineups into second in a big GPP.

    I have gone stretches of months where nothing hits and the bankroll dwindles. The most recent stretch was just after that Koepka chip in February until April. Two months of losing 90% of the days is difficult but it turned around again recently with some decent sized wins.

    I would suggest to brace yourself for down days and long stretches of things not going your way. It’s going to happen. But long term I think this is a viable path if you can deal with the losing days.

  • colagada

    How can you tell which plays have what ownership, before the event starts)?

  • jv21

    • Ranked #67

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @mandrzejewski said...

    This is a great question and something I have been testing the waters with myself since the restart. I am actually up quite a bit, on a relatively small bankroll though, on DK really focusing in on game theory.

    Good to hear it’s working for you. Yeah that’s one of the reason why I want to focus on game theory and therefore ownership. A low own play can really catapult you.

    I am definitely bracing myself to lose more but if long term it means I’ll be up a lot than it’s worth it. While it’s good to not have lost money, it’s does feel terrible to play a whole season and every slate and only make like 10% ROI factoring in all hours spent.

  • mandrzejewski

    • Ranked #78

      RG Tiered Ranking

    My main tool is RG’s projected ownership. They are really good at what they do for all sports.

    I do plenty of research each day. It is always good to get a feel for what the experts are saying in their fields. From there you can also get a good sense of where the field is headed each day. And where the field is not headed.

    I also do my own research. This week for the PGA for example I really liked Carlos Ortiz based on stats that I was looking at. But can’t recall hearing anyone talk about him. He came in very low owned this week. So its also your own feel and as you play more and more DFS you get better at judging things.

  • jv21

    • Ranked #67

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @colagada said...

    How can you tell which plays have what ownership, before the event starts)?

    Its projected ownership. Rotogrinders has this. I think sites run simulations to project it.

  • CottonCombsPhD

    This is a very interesting question and something I’ve been thinking about – let me throw a wrench into the conversation. My background – I teach statistics and research methods at a junior college so this is something I know about. So I’ve been playing MLB, NBA, and NFL for two years. First 6 months was a disaster, but once I got better at using the tools to build optimized lineups, things improved, but still not very successful – just losing less. I had nights where I could fade chalk and find good value, but my best nights was typically about a 20%+ return on what I put in. I had the most success with MLB with 4×4 or a 3×3×2 stacks. I did this by finding games with bad starting pitching, with bad bullpens, that had rosters of players with OPS over .800 – these games resulted in average total runs scored of 11.23 runs vs the league average of around 8.8 runs score in the game by both teams. I had a T4 one night but over the long run, still losing, but almost breaking even. Lots of losing, and not much fun for me. It seemed like when I tried to put together contrarian lineups things got worse. Moreover, I’m a guy that counts every nickel, so when I figured in the W/L amount, and included the cost of the optimizer I was in the hole. Then about 2 months ago I decided to take a look at Monkey Knife Fight (I have nothing to do with the company) because they were offering a 100% deposit match. So I dropped $50 in and to see how it works and I can tell you that I’ve had some success. My favorite game there is MLB Fantasy…you pick two players from same team from a game, and 1 player from the other team in same game. They use the FanDuel scoring (divided by 3) so 1 point for each base. It’s always the same return 10.5 fantasy points = 1.5 x bet, 12.5 fantasy points = 3 x bet, and 15.5 fantasy points = 5 x bet….I soon found out the way to go is the 5x bet….the minimum bet is $2…all their minimums are $2…so if you find a game style you like, play it for awhile and average your return…if the average is over $2 you’re doing well…my return playing 5x is $3.14 so a 57% return….they have tons of various types of props, what’s great is that if you’re in a state that does not allow gambling, you can still access these games as they are all considered fantasy games…the best part for me is that the information I need to play the games is all free at ESPN or any of the sports sites…I no longer need an optimizer – just basic team or player stats…the most popular NBA game is a game called “More/Less”…you’re given two players in same game, for instance in todays ATL NYK game (I'm a Knicks fan) the two players they give you is Randle and Young....Randle points set at 26.5, Young at 24.5...you choose either "more or less" for each player, bet $2 and the return is 3.6..you can bet $2, $5, $10, or higher....I've had some success here...for me the BEST part of all of this is that if a player does not start, Monkey Knife Fight cancels out the bet, so no more dead lineups...I was so sick of my NBA lineups getting hit at the last minute...so no most dead lineups, no more optimizer costs, and I'm constantly cashing at 3x to 5x a night - BUT no big hits, for me, after two years of losing DFS I began to feel like the only people making money were DK shareholders and the site selling information. At the end of the day, if guys like (fill in the blank) were so good at this, why are they on Twitter and YouTube peddling information? Just my .2…..feel free to ask me any questions, but once again, I would give MKF a try

  • Jeezylives

    Not a pro here. I don’t do a lot of research. I’m a jazz player. I have good days, and bad. But over the years I’m way up. Thanks to yahoo Christmas Day 2018 for getting me hooked

    But mostly I study a few teams religiously all season. And I play when they are in good spots. Stacks and 1 offs.

    I find playing correct slates and contest selection to be my most important research.

  • jv21

    • Ranked #67

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Jeezylives said...

    Not a pro here. I don’t do a lot of research. I’m a jazz player. I have good days, and bad. But over the years I’m way up. Thanks to yahoo Christmas Day 2018 for getting me hooked

    But mostly I study a few teams religiously all season. And I play when they are in good spots. Stacks and 1 offs.

    I find playing correct slates and contest selection to be my most important research.

    You make a lot of good points. Focusing 1-2 team is something I might experiment with come NFL season. There is an edge there.

    Yeah slate selection and contest selection are definite important. But for NBA I am at the spot where I make 1 lineup for single entry and then 20 max and so game theory is the main focus.

  • Njsum1

    I’ve never tried solely playing on game theory alone, so I can’t answer your question directly.

    However, if you just think for yourself, don’t worry about who’s chalk, who’s low owned, etc, etc., and just make plays you like for whatever reason, and fade the ones you don’t, you’ll be successful provided you have some knowledge of the sport as well.

    This way your lineups will be naturally contrarian (since no one thinks like you) and have the benefit of player and sport knowledge. That’s how I build lineups.

    Here’s a recent example…Austin Gomber was like 15% owned last night on a 6 game slate. Why?

    The guy just dominated SD twice, had decent games against Houston, Dodgers, Arizona, Stl. Strikes out a ton of guys and pitches at Coors half his games. Not only was he Pitching well, he was doing it against powerhouse offenses. He was only 5600 on DK and facing a bottom quartile offense against LHP.

    He got rocked once Versus SF, which made him look worse then he actually is. So if you looked at his game logs, you’d see that game was likely an outlier, and he should have been priced around 8k.

    I didn’t pay attention to who’s chalk or not, I just lookEd at some data, pricing, etc, and decided I wanted a lot of this guy.

    Here’s an example where some basic knowledge of the sport, and tuning out the noise (thinking for myself) paid off. That’s how I’d reccomend approaching DFS. Good luck 🍀🔥👍🏀⛳️🏈🏒⚾️🍀🔥

  • jv21

    • Ranked #67

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Njsum1 said...

    However, if you just think for yourself, don’t worry about who’s chalk, who’s low owned, etc, etc., and just make plays you like for whatever reason, and fade the ones you don’t, you’ll be successful provided you have some knowledge of the sport as well.

    Good to hear that its working out for. I definitely support the idea of making lineups with your own thoughts first. Unfortunately, I am at the point, where I know enough that I am chalky in lineups regardless of of looking at projections/ownership hence the focus on game theory. I really need to be different/contrarian otherwise I am just stuck with the public.

  • monarch

    Possibly. I have tried it all.

    What I think now is that certain slates line up with my process and not the other way around. The idea that a dfs player can outsmart the entire field with the same tools is unlikely to me. Each slate is wildly different. Different prices, umpires, personnel, weather, injuries etc etc. Even slates with teams that just played are wildly different, so much changes in a day. I think that a lot of the ownership, leverage can be noise. How many times have you researched the entire day, think you have a good feel for the slate and get washed out? Then how many times have you had a busy day at work, simply glanced at your phone and throw a lineup in there with your gut and had a great night?

    I think each of us have certain styles of play, processes etc that if we really drilled down are unique to the dfs player for better or worse and occasionally a slate bends to our style of play as opposed as us adapting successfully to each individual slate.

    Good luck.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @monarch said...

    I think each of us have certain styles of play, processes etc that if we really drilled down are unique to the dfs player for better or worse and occasionally a slate bends to our style of play as opposed as us adapting successfully to each individual slate.

    Very well put! I haven’t really thought of it like that but it makes perfect sense. The problem is that slate that “works for us” we may not know that’s it or have a hard time identifying it.

  • Njsum1

    @jv21 said...

    I really need to be different/contrarian otherwise I am just stuck with the public.

    How often are your lineups duplicated on larger slates? I would assume you have to have data on this if you’re concluding that you need to primarily play contrarian.

    Remember, your lineup still has to score the most points to win. Could be that your lineups just aren’t scoring enough points, yet are in fact unique. 🤷‍♂️

  • Njsum1

    @monarch said...

    and occasionally a slate bends to our style of play as opposed as us adapting successfully to each individual slate.

    There is no spoon? Then you’ll see it is not the spoon the bends, only yourself

  • jv21

    • Ranked #67

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Njsum1 said...

    How often are your lineups duplicated on larger slates? I would assume you have to have data on this if you’re concluding that you need to primarily play contrarian.

    Remember, your lineup still has to score the most points to win. Could be that your lineups just aren’t scoring enough points, yet are in fact unique. 🤷‍♂️

    Dupe? I am not sure, but I definitely waver around the cash line a lot which I believe to mean I am not differentiating myself enough.

    Yeah you do need to have the highest score in that contest. But that can be achieve by making the perfect lineup or making a good lineup and your opponents all doing bad. I am still trying to figure out the best approach for me.

  • jimfred82

    • Blogger of the Month

    Small (but larger than I used to be) stakes and slates guy here so my data might not be too useful, but I’m about a decade into this now and I’ll say that I mainly trust my own research these days. If I think someone is going to play well, I play them. If everybody has them, then cool. If they’re chalk and they flop, well, then we’re all in the same boat. If they’re chalk and they do well, then hopefully the rest of my lineup is great and different. If they’re a weird play and they go off, well then that puts me up… and if they flop, whoops. But overall, one thing to keep in mind is, this is called a “grind” for a reason; if you’re near the cash line most nights, then you probably know what you’re doing and a night where you win some/all your money back is still useful for the bankroll because it’s not a loss. Of course, I also have only one a single GPP in my life, so I’m kind of the equivalent of a cash-game GPP player (if that makes sense?) so my opinion might not quite be what you’re looking for!

  • Golf18

    @jv21 said...

    Hi all.

    I wanted to ask this since I am trying to get better at dfs and to play multiple sports. By game theory, I mean playing dfs like a game and making your decisions based on the rules AND what your opponents are doing. * This is assuming you know the basics of each sport eg scoring system, stacking etc

    So, do you do think someone can be successful at dfs just playing using (optimal) game theory? For example, using leverage, fading chalk, and making lineups that are contrarian.

    I am hating spending hours researching player data and they just bust. I figure if I get good at game theory, I should be able to put myself in better positions to win and to be able to play all sports.

    Any game theory advice helps too.

    Thanks, in advance.

    This theory of yours sounds nice but it’s not specific enough. For example, what percentage of ownership counts as chalk? Where do you get this information?

    Game theory is a must if you want to improve at DFS, but it’s not the only component needed. To repeat, you also must be far more specific to utilize your theory. Good luck

  • factorial89

    great thread.i majored in math in college and took 2 courses in game theory.i took topics like nash equilibrium the prisoners dilemma dominant strategy and others.pure game theory will not make you a successful dfs player.too many variables.at present i am trying to construct 2 personal algorithms that may work.

  • jv21

    • Ranked #67

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Golf18 said...

    This theory of yours sounds nice but it’s not specific enough. For example, what percentage of ownership counts as chalk? Where do you get this information?

    Game theory is a must if you want to improve at DFS, but it’s not the only component needed. To repeat, you also must be far more specific to utilize your theory. Good luck

    You make some good points. It does make sense to be more focused but I am not really sure how/ best strategies are doing hence this post. It would be nice to build a model to know when a player at 40% owned is suboptimal vs a possible lock. I probably would have to figure out the base strategies for every sport and then construct specific game theory strategies based on that sports rules and constraints.

    However, do I think I have a good grasp on what to do for NFL. Stacking+ Bracket Ownership+ Cumulative Ownership look to be a very good strategy. This strategy is probably more than just game theory but it does leverage what the public is doing , can help produce actual winning scores and requires less knowledge football knowledge than from hand building.

  • TheRyanFlaherty

    My initial reaction would be that it wouldn’t be optimal to take into account just the singular aspect.
    Then again, the beauty of DFS is one great day can make up for a whole lot of bad ones, and if you’re working around game theory and focusing on GPP’s using contrarian lineups, that seems like something that could hit big. Personally I wouldn’t be able to deal with that kind of variance.

    Luckily for me I’m inherently contrarian, as I started winning far more when I stopped reading projections, articles, picks and what not. Sites moving more content to premium turned out to be a God send for me. End of the day I think this is hard, few people are profitable and if you’re not simply throwing money away recreationally, you have to focus on whatever works for you…however your mind works that can give even the slightest edge…if that’s game theory and it makes sense to you the. It will probably work. If you’re choosing to focus on that simply because you think it would prove optimal or are simply grasping for a strategy, than odds are it won’t.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).