STRATEGY FORUM

Comments

  • Knocturnal

    I am a majority gpp grinder the rollercoaster can be intense so I’ve been seeking more stability. I’ve never really been a fan of cash games because I thought they were boring. However after listening to a couple YouTube podcasts of Assani and Daut44 on joeingram1’s YouTube channel it has really changed my mind on cash games. I’ve been venturing into the field more including this week I played $1050 in h2hs from the $1-10 lobby my results were that I won 64% of h2hs but only profited 80 dollars, which was not very satisfactory considering the amount of money I put up. I entered $605 in double ups because of overlay and doubled my money, and entered $40 in 50/50s making $32 net. Therefore my total profit was $717 but this was mostly from double ups that were paying out over 56% of the field. I’ve heard that you should play more h2hs and 50/50s compared to double ups.

    I wanted to get input and stories from heavy cash grinders or anyone who grinds cash about their thoughts on h2hs, 50/50s, and double ups. What percentage do you play for each? Is playing high stakes cash like over $100 a must if you want to turn a real profit?

    Also does your playstyle differ in h2hs compared to 50/50s and double ups?

  • PigskinaBlanket

    • x2

      2016 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • x3

      2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    Depends on your risk tolerance. A 32nd percentile lineup will ship all of your 50/50s and double ups for a nice profit – but will only win about 32% of your H2H matchups for a small profit. This is essentially what happened to you this weekend.

    However a 60th percentile lineup will brick all of your 50/50 and doubleups while still winning 40% of your H2H matchups. There is a huge volatility difference between the two.

  • Knocturnal

    @PigskinaBlanket said...

    Depends on your risk tolerance. A 32nd percentile lineup will ship all of your 50/50s and double ups for a nice profit – but will only win about 32% of your H2H matchups for a small profit. This is essentially what happened to you this weekend.

    However a 60th percentile lineup will brick all of your 50/50 and doubleups while still winning 40% of your H2H matchups. There is a huge volatility difference between the two.

    Interesting do you play 50/50s more than anything else ?

  • Unico10

    • 738

      RG Overall Ranking

    @PigskinaBlanket said...

    but will only win about 32% of your H2H matchups for a small profit.

    I think you meant will lose about 32% of h2h?

    For example my NFL cash lineup Sunday scored 153.12 was a 20%er… easily shipped all 50/50 and DU, cashed in Sunday million and single entry, 3 max GPPs I entered, but won only 31 of 40 h2h.

    If my lineup had been a 40%er would have probably cashed only (maybe) a few 50/50 and (based on my opponents scores) 22 of 40 h2h.

    In other words, I play a few h2h for fun and variety, but as far as cash grinding I think they are pretty much a waste of time and rake generator…. if the lineup is mediocre you still win “some” but you would have won more by not playing. If the lineup is strong you win, but not as much as 50/50 and DU because there is always/often someone with a lineup better than yours.

    Only one time I had a total sweep, but that lineup exploded and finished really high in GPP and won some satties

  • SnowShark

    ^^^^Agree with this

    If you play chalkier lineups and have a smaller bankroll 50-50’s and double ups are the fastest way to build money. After a while you can figure out your winning % and what percentile you finish in. If you finish between 40-70% your much better of playing 50-50’s and double ups. The H2H might become more appealing the larger your bankroll gets. I know some people play a really chalky 50-50 lineup and then have a separate team with a few pivots for H2H to give them a chance of hitting a 90%+ score.

  • troveur

    As everything in life OP….it depends. Some people will excel @ H2H more than 50/50’s and vice versa. Grind both a lot and see where your personal strengths are and then adjust your distribution accordingly.

  • MrFantasy

    64% win rate is about as good as it gets nowadays so if you’re not satisfied with winning at about the rate you did this weekend I don’t know why you would switch to playing cash games.

    GPP variance is insane. Play more of the #2s and smaller contests as well as the bigger GPP’s and you’ll reduce your variance. Cash games get tougher and tougher every day. Being a better player isn’t really enough anymore when the rake is 10% in the majority of cash games. Even at 15% GPP’s are very beatable. It’s worth the variance because you don’t need to put $1000 into play every night to make $40-$50. If you are solid player that really has an idea of the analytics of DFS there is no reason a 20-30% ROI can’t be achieved in the smaller games.

  • Knocturnal

    @MrFantasy said...

    64% win rate is about as good as it gets nowadays so if you’re not satisfied with winning at about the rate you did this weekend I don’t know why you would switch to playing cash games.

    GPP variance is insane. Play more of the #2s and smaller contests as well as the bigger GPP’s and you’ll reduce your variance. Cash games get tougher and tougher every day. Being a better player isn’t really enough anymore when the rake is 10% in the majority of cash games. Even at 15% GPP’s are very beatable. It’s worth the variance because you don’t need to put $1000 into play every night to make $40-$50. If you are solid player that really has an idea of the analytics of DFS there is no reason a 20-30% ROI can’t be achieved in the smaller games.

    Fair points about rake increase etc, I am very satisfied in my career as a gpp player just wanted some perspective like this from heavy cash players. I know players who profit large amounts of money through cash games and I feel like I’m not pursuing something that would be beneficial since DFS is my job right now. I will give it a try at the very least for an extended time.

  • walkoff9

    • 595

      RG Overall Ranking

    I get the whole H2H reducing variance thing, but it should even out in the long run. To me your just playing stronger competition in H2H than you get in the large field 50/50.

  • scottmsteiner

    @walkoff9 said...

    I get the whole H2H reducing variance thing, but it should even out in the long run. To me your just playing stronger competition in H2H than you get in the large field 50/50.

    This is true! Unless you are playing a large volume of H2H games, they are not worth your investment.

  • Linsanity88

    @walkoff9 said...

    I get the whole H2H reducing variance thing, but it should even out in the long run. To me your just playing stronger competition in H2H than you get in the large field 50/50.

    I don’t know about this, I had guys in H2Hs on DraftKings this week with CJ Spiller, Josh Gordon, Darius Jennings and Dion Sims on their rosters.

  • scottmsteiner

    @Linsanity88 said...

    I don’t know about this, I had guys in H2Hs on DraftKings this week with CJ Spiller, Josh Gordon, Darius Jennings and Dion Sims on their rosters.

    Just wait, those idiots will be gone by week 3. Take advantage of them while you can…if you can find them.

  • bolu

    head to heads never overlay but are very beneficial to winning cash players

  • Bigo1

    @Knocturnal said...

    I played $1050 in h2hs from the $1-10 lobby my results were that I won 64% of h2hs but only profited 80 dollars

    I guess you play DK and enter the max number of H2H at $1,2,3,5 and 10.

    There is not too much juice playing those as you mention. Assuming a 60% winning rate, you are expected to make $84 per week. The cap of 50 entries per stake make it impossible to make good money on those (probably rightly so for the DFS ecosystem).

    Most of cash players make money on H2H at the higher stakes, $109 and $515 being the sweet spots. Those require a winning rate of

  • Knocturnal

    @Bigo1 said...

    I guess you play DK and enter the max number of H2H at $1,2,3,5 and 10.

    There is not too much juice playing those as you mention. Assuming a 60% winning rate, you are expected to make $84 per week. The cap of 50 entries per stake make it impossible to make good money on those (probably rightly so for the DFS ecosystem).

    Most of cash players make money on H2H at the higher stakes, $109 and $515 being the sweet spots. Those require a winning rate of

    keep going…

  • Agoraphobia

    I think the top cash game players moving forward are going to have to do it on volume, similar to the kids who are 8 and 12-tabling online poker.

    You made $80 on $1050 playing h2h’s, which got you a 7.6% return on cash in play. Assuming you hypothetically were playing 10% of your bankroll and got that result 300 times in a year, your cumulative ROI would be 229% (80*300=24k, divided by $10.5k) of your bankroll. Hard to find an investment that strong. Just a question of if the grind is worth the time to you since it obviously isn’t passive income.

  • Bigo1

    @Knocturnal said...

    keep going…

    Not sure why I was cut off…..

    …a winning rate of

  • Bigo1

    Ok there is an issue with my posts!!

  • tvsfrink

    I don’t know, I’m kind of enjoying the suspense…

  • maxeernst

    One thing that I think is being missed here:

    When playing h2h, game selection is important.

    I don’t necessarily mean “bum hunting”.

    It’s obviously much more profitable to identify players that regularly post games who are “bad” than it is to hunt newbies. Difficult to develop a large enough sample size to assess the strength of your opponents in NFL, but if you plan on playing a lot of cash, I recommend regularly taking low buy-in h2hs against basically everyone to start gathering info.

  • VChair23

    I started as all GPP, moved to mostly cash focused on H2H, and then to mostly cash focused on 50/50 double ups. I play one cash lineup each night in NBA/NHL/NFL/MLB, enjoy the variance, get the greater stability of Cash games. I’ve settled at about 85-90% 50/50 or double ups, rest GPP. MLB/NHL 5% of “bankroll”, NBA 10%, NFL I’m not sure where I’m setting yet(aiming for 20-30)

  • Bigo1

    That is what I wanted to mention. You will quickly see who you can beat at a rate higher than 53% in the higher stakes, and should focus on those players

  • ActionJunkie

    @scottmsteiner said...

    Just wait, those idiots will be gone by week 3. Take advantage of them while you can…if you can find them.

    No, there will be a new crop in week 3. Happens every year. H2Hs are very soft unless you are purposely going after the sharks.

  • zpruitt3

    You can play a much higher % of your bankroll (more than this over-rated “10% rule”) by diversifying your exposure through different sites/slates/opponents without taking on a lot of risk in NFL cash games.

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