MLB FORUM

  • tommykarate

    I’m curious what other cash game specialists feel about the season thus far. Last year was my 1st in MLB and after a rocky first 3 months, i finished very strong and ended the season at 59% in 50/50’s (about 65% the 2nd half of the season).

    This year i had a ton of confidence in my research process/approach but have now stumbled the past few weeks and am now second guessing everything i do.
    I was hitting around 60% mid May but am now down to around 50% — which is horrible if you rely on cash games to grow your bankroll. I am fully aware of variance, cold streaks etc, but im now going on 3-4 day losing streaks which never happened to me last year.

    Reason im posting this is because i just did some research of the last 30 days, and i tracked a few of the bigger named pros, and they have also struggled. My lineups are mostly chalky and it seems like a lot of the guys cashing have that 10% guy for 30 points to help hit the cash line.

    Any other cash game guys going through this? Im not sure if its the new scoring on FD, the lack of novice money from NY or just a cold streak for chalky plays.

  • Olhausen

    I don’t play cash games but I have also been running cold since late May up until this Friday. I think New York coming back has to help as there is going to be a lot of fish coming back or just starting. It’s going to be different then anything we’ve seen I’d imagine since dfs has never had a huge state come back in the middle of the MLB season. I wonder just how many new players and players that normally wouldn’t play baseball will be playing once dfs is back up in New York. Normally after the all star break things start to get harder as the fish dry up. But maybe things get easier this season because of the odd circumstances dfs is in. It’s definitely going to be fun to see how it all unfolds and I for one can’t wait till New York is back.

  • tommykarate

    @Olhausen said...

    I don’t play cash games but I have also been running cold since late May up until this Friday. I think New York coming back has to help as there is going to be a lot of fish coming back or just starting. It’s going to be different then anything we’ve seen I’d imagine since dfs has never had a huge state come back in the middle of the MLB season. I wonder just how many new players and players that normally wouldn’t play baseball will be playing once dfs is back up in New York. Normally after the all star break things start to get harder as the fish dry up. But maybe things get easier this season because of the odd circumstances dfs is in. It’s definitely going to be fun to see how it all unfolds and I for one can’t wait till New York is back.

    i think NY will definitely get a lot of new players from all of the press…

  • thekushhammer

    I’ve been struggling with cash games too, I don’t know what exactly is different for me. I’m thinking about moving to GPPs, i overthink lineup decisions greatly in cash trying to factor in ownership i.e. ‘fear of missing out on a big game from X, or i know 50+ will be on X so i should make room for X, or some other nonsense’

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    I’m actually the opposite. After a brutal NBA season, I have been winning at almost a 70% rate this season, it’s been unreal so far. While I, of course, am mostly chalky as well, I seem to be nailing that one guy on a nightly basis that is 10 – 15% owned that pushes me over the edge.

    I have been lucky enough to NOT hit a 3-4 day losing streak yet this season, those really hurt. Hopefully you can turn things around, good luck.

  • tommykarate

    @bhdevault said...

    I’m actually the opposite. After a brutal NBA season, I have been winning at almost a 70% rate this season, it’s been unreal so far. While I, of course, am mostly chalky as well, I seem to be nailing that one guy on a nightly basis that is 10 – 15% owned that pushes me over the edge.

    I have been lucky enough to NOT hit a 3-4 day losing streak yet this season, those really hurt. Hopefully you can turn things around, good luck.

    ive noticed – youre also not just cashing so i hope youre throwing your lineup in a GPP. seem to always be top 10..
    nice work…

  • jayzee666

    @bhdevault said...

    I’m actually the opposite. After a brutal NBA season, I have been winning at almost a 70% rate this season, it’s been unreal so far. While I, of course, am mostly chalky as well, I seem to be nailing that one guy on a nightly basis that is 10 – 15% owned that pushes me over the edge.

    I have been lucky enough to NOT hit a 3-4 day losing streak yet this season, those really hurt. Hopefully you can turn things around, good luck.

    How many lineups do you typically put in on a daily basis? Do you win with 70% of the lineups or a 70% return on investment? Thanks!

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @jayzee666 said...

    How many lineups do you typically put in on a daily basis? Do you win with 70% of the lineups or a 70% return on investment? Thanks!

    I do one cash game lineup. I don’t NORMALLY win at a 70% rate, but so far this season I have. I did terrible yesterday, so who knows, maybe the variance will start to catch up.

    I honestly feel lucky so far. There are so many days where I ‘almost’ make a move that would have ended up burning me, or I make a last minute move that benefits me. Normally that isn’t the case.

  • noddy

    Is it possible to make a profit in 50-50’s and double ups over a season? You’d have to win 57% of 50/50’s or 51% of double up. Is that possible anymore?

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @noddy said...

    Is it possible to make a profit in 50-50’s and double ups over a season? You’d have to win 57% of 50/50’s or 51% of double up. Is that possible anymore?

    Playing 3 and 10 man’s help as well. Normally on my really strong nights, I’ll win the 3 man’s and at least 1st or 2nd in 10 man’s as well. So, yes, I believe it’s possible, but only for some.

  • noddy

    Thanks for the response and that’s good to hear. Going to start grinding in about a month so I guess I’ll find out

  • B_Edelman

    @bhdevault said...

    Playing 3 and 10 man’s help as well.

    As someone who doesn’t play 3 mans, but does play 50/50s and doubleups, is the added variance of doing a 3 man worth it compared to playing a triple up? I would rather not experiment by trial and error. Or is the better option to just stick to the 50/50s and doubleups in cash?

  • noddy

    @B_Edelman said...

    As someone who doesn’t play 3 mans, but does play 50/50s and doubleups, is the added variance of doing a 3 man worth it compared to playing a triple up? I would rather not experiment by trial and error. Or is the better option to just stick to the 50/50s and doubleups in cash?

    Are you able to make a profit on 50/50’s and double ups? What winning percentage do you feel is possible?

  • GoldStandard000

    I hit a slump in May, but I have turned it around as of late. I had to switch up my strategy for cash games and its worked. I also designate certain days as gpp only days like today.

  • noddy

    @GoldStandard000 said...

    I hit a slump in May, but I have turned it around as of late. I had to switch up my strategy for cash games and its worked. I also designate certain days as gpp only days like today.

    Why is today’s slate GPP only for you?

  • tommykarate

    @bhdevault said...

    I’m actually the opposite. After a brutal NBA season, I have been winning at almost a 70% rate this season, it’s been unreal so far. While I, of course, am mostly chalky as well, I seem to be nailing that one guy on a nightly basis that is 10 – 15% owned that pushes me over the edge.

    I have been lucky enough to NOT hit a 3-4 day losing streak yet this season, those really hurt. Hopefully you can turn things around, good luck.

    i was about to congratulate you on another high finish in our cash game off a great low owned call in arcia.
    btw – very ballsy calls on tulo and josh in cash games vs sale – tulo i can see at just 2.4k, but josh d i would never spend 3.8k on vs a pitcher like sale.

    https://www.fanduel.com/games/15831/contests/15831-25113027/entries/501736654/scoring?entry=501794805

    i then look at my squeeze lineup and notice a monster cash by you. well done man!

    https://www.fanduel.com/games/15831/contests/15831-25107990/entries/501736563/scoring?entry=501796351

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @tommykarate said...

    i was about to congratulate you on another high finish in our cash game off a great low owned call in arcia.
    btw – very ballsy calls on tulo and josh in cash games vs sale – tulo i can see at just 2.4k, but josh d i would never spend 3.8k on vs a pitcher like sale.

    https://www.fanduel.com/games/15831/contests/15831-25113027/entries/501736654/scoring?entry=501794805

    i then look at my squeeze lineup and notice a monster cash by you. well done man!

    https://www.fanduel.com/games/15831/contests/15831-25107990/entries/501736563/scoring?entry=501796351

    Thanks!

    To be honest, that wasn’t my original cash lineup. I had more Brewers originally but when it got closer to lineup lock, I liked the Blue Jays a bit more for their price and how Sale pitches to contact this year. Right after lock, I go outside, tell my wife I HATE my cash lineup today, haha.

    Was a great day in the end. Appreciate it. Thanks

  • thepacificocean

    @BHDEVAULT

    Your LU looks very familiar to what I like to call a “Top of The Sheet” LU that I didn’t end up playing. It’s easier to see what I mean by top of the sheet when you sort by POS, but have a look.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ovw6qO8GbCavi8WLbCDJRp6TNroTtdaCkE3e5Fzbj0I/edit#gid=711433092

  • tommykarate

    @bhdevault said...

    Thanks!

    To be honest, that wasn’t my original cash lineup. I had more Brewers originally but when it got closer to lineup lock, I liked the Blue Jays a bit more for their price and how Sale pitches to contact this year. Right after lock, I go outside, tell my wife I HATE my cash lineup today, haha.

    Was a great day in the end. Appreciate it. Thanks

    yeah i start looking at the brewers from the top and i see how villiars price dropped for scherzer and then now it was back at the same level for roark. figured it was another pricing glitch (ie kiki) and then scooter is too cheap, braun etc….then i realized what happened with strasburg and from there i just started my cash lineup with their top 4 – they were too cheap for an avg pitcher in roark.

  • BennyRamirez

    @B_Edelman said...

    As someone who doesn’t play 3 mans, but does play 50/50s and doubleups, is the added variance of doing a 3 man worth it compared to playing a triple up? I would rather not experiment by trial and error. Or is the better option to just stick to the 50/50s and doubleups in cash?

    I just started MLB this year, so my sample is small, FWIW, but my winrate is higher in 3-mans than 3xs (40% to 34%), using the same LUs in DUs and 50/50s, where I have a 61-62% and 69-70% rate, respectively. This is over 605 DUs, 311 50/50s, 618 3-mans, and 142 3xs in the last four weeks when I started having a bit of a clue what I was doing.

    3xs are still kind of weird to me. I feel they play closer to 5-mans than 3-mans. And I’m terrible at 5-mans. The best benefit to 3-mans is that they can really minimize the losses of a slightly sub-bubble 50/50 LU, but it requires a lot of volume to find those games where you squeak by enough; and the DU cashes tend to crush 3-mans. I think this depends on your roll and the time you have to select games (which is crucial) or else you just end up playing zoom_zoom in, like, 60% of your games.

  • jds2721

    I’m going to piggyback this thread and ask at what point do you know if you’re good or just lucky?

    This is humblebragging, but I’ve had a very good year. I only play MLB. I was lucky enough to finish 2nd in a DK Moonshot a few weeks ago and won $7,500. Since then I’ve been entering about $200/day and my bankroll has continued to grow.

    My ROI for the season in cash games is 25% in 400 contests. Removing the Moonshot outlier, my GPP ROI is 19% in 627 contests (I know I play way too many GPPs!). At what point can I really know if my strategy is profitable and I should be betting more per day? Is my sample size statistically signifcant to know that I have an edge?

  • SkateFiend

    IMO – Cash games are harder this year because the “safe” pitching options (minus Kershaw) are less than automatic. Last season I could pair Jake Arrieta with some an average starter from Oakland and sneak in the cash line consistently. You get near 50 points from the starters and take your chances on serviceable hitters.

    Right now nothing outside of Kershaw seems safe. The top options are either inconsistent or are betrayed by their offense or bullpen. And they’ll occasionally just ……. blow up.

    When I do play cash games, I make sure to have An all star caliber lineup with two mid level starters. Honestly, I have fun with lineups like this. If you can you Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts and Mike Trout in the lineup, you’ll get some production out of those guys. I like the feeling being left out the cash line by 10 points with Dan Straily, Mike Trout and Ryan Braun still left to go.

  • smutpeddlers

    I think cash games are dead….. the 50/50 usually have same cash line as gpps so I feel like all your doing is limiting your upside. Rake is going to win in the long run. You can limit your variance just playing 1 cash line…. I’m just pretty against cash games……

  • Brian4state

    @smutpeddlers said...

    I think cash games are dead….. the 50/50 usually have same cash line as gpps so I feel like all your doing is limiting your upside. Rake is going to win in the long run. You can limit your variance just playing 1 cash line…. I’m just pretty against cash games……

    Is this really true? I’m not trying to call you out, but simply say I’ve played way to many gpp’ this season and haven’t kept up with cash game lines.

  • jds2721

    @SkateFiend said...

    IMO – Cash games are harder this year because the “safe” pitching options (minus Kershaw) are less than automatic.

    Yup, Kershaw starts are big cash nights for me (or an obvious ace matchup where one SP just blows everyone else away). Just bet tons on your cash lineup, enter big contests and take advantage of the 20% of people who aren’t taking the obvious SP.

  • jds2721

    @Brian4state said...

    Is this really true? I’m not trying to call you out, but simply say I’ve played way to many gpp’ this season and haven’t kept up with cash game lines.

    Some nights it can be close but for the most part I would think the GPP cash line is way hire. Just depends on how well the chalk does on a particular night. Even if the cash lines are the same, your GPP lineup will always have a lower point projection since you’re stacking or being a little contrarian to try and win the GPP.

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