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  • rausch180

    A bit different to the usual ones, but yesterday at NBA (18th Nov) they both managed to botch their GPP entries. Cash they had 2 common builds around the 5 core plays of Doncic, Sabonis, House, TT and Dinwiddie. Nothing to see there.

    Yet in the $55 NBA $200K FINGER WAG there were 4132 entries in the GPP, of which 111 had Kyrie Irving who had long been ruled out. ChipotleAddict had 104 with Irving, papagates 7 with him, no one else had any unsurprisingly. Same deal with Jeremy Lamb long ruled out, 29 lineups had him in the GPP, 27 were ChipotleAddict and 2 were papagates. Also in the $8 NBA $400K EXCELLENT 8’S the pattern was similar.

    Once ResultsDB is updated, you’ll be able to see for yourself.

    It is very uncommon for this to happen to a max entry reg. They both had a cash lineup that appears well reacted to all the news. The question is what is the chance of both players independently making a very rare mistake and the same mistake and only in GPP? Any one have a reasonable explanation?

  • jjwd

    @superstars92 said...

    I think conditionally, it definitely should though right. Like if someone was previously suspected of a crime, even if they weren’t convicted, they probably, on a conditional level, indeed does have a higher chance of having committed another crime they are suspected of.

    This is an paper I read, so I am not just making this up. It’s not something that’s a concrete 100% type of case, but I read it marginally bumps up the probability like a few percentage points.

    nope

  • superstars92

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    @jjwd said...

    nope

    Dude this is literally a fact supported by research in Economics Journals which I read in college. I’m not saying it’s 100%, but it’s clearly a marginal increase.

    It’s literally the same logic on NBA players coming out of the draft who are projected to do well have a higher chance of ending up doing well. Typically, people who are suspected of wrongdoing also have a higher chance of actual wrongdoing….

    Not saying this applies to the brothers in this case as a 100% type of fact, but to argue against what I just said is just arguing against logic and facts.

  • BerkeleyBoss

    @superstars92 said...

    Oh no I don’t think he’s lying at all. I actually think that mistake happened exactly as he described.

    The question really is, did it happen to just him, in charge of both sets of lineups, or both him and his brother in different isolated incidents, which as we all have mentioned, would be a very big coincidence.

    The reason I brought up the Draymond example is because I am saying the mistake is NOT EASY to make at first glance. So if it’s not an easy mistake to make, how come both brothers made the same mistake? Like if you wanted to spell a super long spelling word, it’s plausible two people both misspell it because it’s an easy mistake to make. If you had to spell “hard”, and two people spell it “harrd,” since it’s NOT EASY to missepell it, that brings more suspicion. Hopefully that made sense. I had to intentionally do some stuff just to force myself into picking Draymond, naturally it would have excluded it for me.

    I don’t really understand how you think he made the mistake then…

    He clearly stated that FC usually give some them a 0 or removes them and that neither happened this time.

  • NoLimits0

    @superstars92 said...

    Dude this is literally a fact supported by research in Economics Journals which I read in college. I’m not saying it’s 100%, but it’s clearly a marginal increase.

    It’s literally the same logic on NBA players coming out of the draft who are projected to do well have a higher chance of ending up doing well. Typically, people who are suspected of wrongdoing also have a higher chance of actual wrongdoing….

    Not saying this applies to the brothers in this case as a 100% type of fact, but to argue against what I just said is just arguing against logic and facts.

    Why are you even trying to reason with him. I tried to earlier and it was pointless.

    You could show him a video of the two brothers working together and giving each other each 150 lineups and his response would be “well that video looks doctered, they probably found 2 similar looking actors”.

    He won’t ever reason with you. I gave him a statistical argument earlier and it flew past his head.

  • superstars92

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    @BerkeleyBoss said...

    I don’t really understand how you think he made the mistake then…

    He clearly stated that FC usually give some them a 0 or removes them and that neither happened this time.

    Yea that’s why I was confused. I do believe the mistake can be made, but given I had a tough time forcing myself into picking Draymond, I think it’s super hard for two people to make the same mistake. It definitely can happen and that would be a coincidence, but it’s not an easy mistake to make.

    If this was such an easy mistake, with the amount of users FC has, they would get so many complaints they would have fixed it by now.

    I actually do think he made this exact mistake described, it’s whether you believe two people, who happen to be brothers, both made it on the same night when no one else makes it or not. That’s up to everyone else to decide and I see we have polarizing opinions in the thread about it.

    Also as you mentioned, I have to get a larger sample size to see if this happens again. I have yet to actually then submit the created lineup also, so I need to figure that out.

  • jjwd

    @NoLimits0 said...

    I gave him a statistical argument earlier and it flew past his head.

    No offense, but you talking about shooting 3 pointers does not help anyone elucidate the brothers’ technical modeling and optimizing process.

  • jjwd

    @superstars92 said...

    Dude this is literally a fact supported by research in Economics Journals which I read in college. I’m not saying it’s 100%, but it’s clearly a marginal increase.

    It’s literally the same logic on NBA players coming out of the draft who are projected to do well have a higher chance of ending up doing well. Typically, people who are suspected of wrongdoing also have a higher chance of actual wrongdoing….

    Not saying this applies to the brothers in this case as a 100% type of fact, but to argue against what I just said is just arguing against logic and facts.

    what’s the sample size on that

  • NoLimits0

    @jjwd said...

    No offense, but you talking about shooting 3 pointers does not help anyone elucidate the brothers’ technical modeling and optimizing process.

    As I said I could show you a video of the brothers colluding and sharing lineups and your explanation was the video was doctored or two actors were hired.

    You can literally make a case for anything is my 3 point example. You can literally explain anything in any manner. But some explanations are pretty much improbable from a statistical standpoint…

  • jjwd

    @NoLimits0 said...

    As I said I could show you a video of the brothers colluding and sharing lineups and your explanation was the video was doctored or two actors were hired.

    You can literally make a case for anything is my 3 point example. You can literally explain anything in any manner. But some explanations are pretty much improbable from a statistical standpoint…

    Apparently you are a man of many assumptions. Kinda my whole point.

  • superstars92

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    @jjwd said...

    what’s the sample size on that

    What do you mean? Do you know how Economics publications work?

  • NoLimits0

    @jjwd said...

    Apparently you are a man of many assumptions. Kinda my whole point.

    It’s a fact they both played Kyrie and Lamb in GPPs as the only players in the entire GPP to play them. It’s a fact they both had Dinwiddie exposure and in cash.

    You guys are making assumptions like saying the two brothers uploaded FC in the morning. That’s an assumption you guys made to support/justify their behavior. Most of my arguments I used are on statistics. You just made an assumption above when it was pointed out to you a research paper proved a fact and you said Nope.

  • jjwd

    @superstars92 said...

    What do you mean? Do you know how Economics publications work?

    do they take an enormous, worldwide sample, or do they just use two brothers and a handful of “suspicious” occurrences?

  • superstars92

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    @jjwd said...

    do they take an enormous, worldwide sample, or do they just use two brothers and a handful of “suspicious” occurrences?

    In my post, I clearly said my statement was a general statement…I specifically went out of my way to mention this isn’t a 100% fact that proves anything about the brothers.

    My general statement is true. People who have been suspected of crimes in the past are far more likely to commit crimes in the future. That was the basis of the entire paper which talked about crime rates (it’s a large research in economics). All economics papers are published with rigoruous statistical tests that eliminates possible bias like sample or selection bias.

    I said this case isn’t something directly applicable and I even said it doesn’t actually prove anything about the brothers and it was only a marginal increase not like a jump to 100%….

    The general idea is that typically when there’s fire there’s smoke. How do you not know this phrase? You think this phrase is just some random phrase to sound catchy? People suspected McGuire, Sosa, Bonds, etc. of steroids for years. You think it’s just random those guys were suspected? You think it’s just random that those guys actually then were caught using steroids? Why do you think no one suspects oh say Awesemo, who’s actually #1 and has a bigger target on his head.

  • jjwd

    @NoLimits0 said...

    You guys are making assumptions like saying the two brothers uploaded FC in the morning. That’s an assumption you guys made to support/justify their behavior.

    I actually never said that, and I don’t care to “justify” anything except logical thinking here. I think I’ve made my points. No need to monopolize the thread any further.

  • NoLimits0

    @superstars92 said...

    In my post, I clearly said my statement was a general statement…I specifically went out of my way to mention this isn’t a 100% fact that proves anything about the brothers.

    My general statement is true. People who have been suspected of crimes in the past are far more likely to committ crimes in the future. That was the basis of the entire paper which talked about crime rates (it’s a large research in economics).

    I said this case isn’t something directly applicable and I even said it doesn’t actually prove anything about the brothers and it was only a marginal increase not like a jump to 100%….

    The general idea is that typically when there’s fire there’s smoke. How do you not know this phrase? You think this phrase is just some random phrase to sound catchy? People suspected McGuire, Sosa, Bonds, etc. of steroids for years. You think it’s just random those guys were suspected? You think it’s just random that those guys actually then were caught using steroids? Why do you think no one suspects oh say Awesemo, who’s actually #1 and has a bigger target on his head.

    Like I said, you can show him a video of the two brothers colluding and he’ll come up with a way to defend them.

  • chronoxiong

    So these two guys are colluding. So did condia/1ucror back in the days when there used to be an edge in DFS. We got lineup buyers from the DFS Karma site and other sites. Who else is colluding? Is DFS even profitable anymore? All I have done is donate money unless I happen to hit a nice GPP score.

  • depalma13

    With NBA and NFL locks so close on Monday it seems to me like one brother was doing NBA and the other was doing NFL. NBA brother sends mistaken lineup to NFL brother who doesn’t have time to check because the NFL lock is just minutes away. So he blindly uploads the faulty lineup. Just my speculation.

  • ajs1281

    So reading through this and everything else that has gone on with the brothers if you take them at their word:
    The use the same projection model (or similar enough)
    They have their own optimizer pre-lock which they work on independently
    The use FC for late swap using their own projections
    FC had a glitch that put in inactive players for the night

    Now I would hope someone out there smarter than me could put together the odds of:
    Both being impacted by the same glitch (or bad data etc) on the same night and it not being caught
    Being the only 2 impacted
    AND Most Importantly:
    Never having overlapping lineups while max entering as many slates as they each enter after making these mistakes.

    I think this is the biggest thing, these are 2 people supposedly working independent of each other when it comes time to generate lineups. If there is such chaos around lock or in post-swap that they cannot manage to remove 2 payers ruled out very early by DFS standards, how the hell do they always manage to end up with unique lineups. It has to be almost impossible for 2 people using the same data, who have the same process and use the same tools (enough to make the same mistake on the same night), to then somehow not duplicate lineups to a significant degree the other 364 days a year unless they are cutting up a 300 lineup crunch which is what everyone is suggesting and was all of the previous issues people had with them.

    Just seems so obvious at this point that almost any outside person would assume it is happening. Those social media class action lawsuit ads are going to love this one.

  • bure10

    @chronoxiong said...

    So these two guys are colluding. So did condia/1ucror back in the days when there used to be an edge in DFS. We got lineup buyers from the DFS Karma site and other sites. Who else is colluding? Is DFS even profitable anymore? All I have done is donate money unless I happen to hit a nice GPP score.

    Thats the thing there are very public lineups sellers on Twitter that DK knows about but nothing happens so to think this will make them suddenly take action is a bit of a stretch.

  • Numberoneoutlaw

    Good job guys. 12 pages of arguing and you know nothing will be done about it. Move on.

  • baseballs

    @papagates said...

    Both Tom and I use Fantasycruncher’s late swaptimizer in order to swap post lock.

    maybe they accidentally used FC’s cumswaptimizer and found themselves in a sticky situation

  • Gathman78

    If you’ve been playing DFS long enough, you’ll see it’s pretty easy to understand what’s happening here. I applaud everyone on this thread for pointing out very plausible scenarios as to what is happening. With that being said, nothing will change. DK and FD need players like Chipotle and Papa, Awesomo and so on. They need sharks just like they need fish. What YOU can do is adjust the way you play accordingly with what you now know. This thread was different in a way because of the obvious missteps made and hopefully sheds some more light. What wasn’t different was “pros” coming in trying to deflect or make a distracting argument putting a variety of their words in BOLD letters to further their point. My point overall is, change the way you play the games or not. I like to do both, sometimes it’s fun to chase the sharks.

  • emnj69

    the worst thing about this thread is blaming fc saying they have a glitch. If I was FC I would want that addressed asap. Their rep is being dragged through the mud and I am not sure it is justified.

  • Gathman78

    @emnj69 said...

    the worst thing about this thread is blaming fc saying they have a glitch. If I was FC I would want that addressed asap. Their rep is being dragged through the mud and I am not sure it is justified.

    Have you ever followed FC on Twitter?

  • gnicholas0225

    Certain people here are drastically over-complicating things, probably intentionally in order to muddy the waters.

    Let’s take PG at his word, and assume this was a FC error.

    There are one of two scenarios:

    Scenario 1: Both brothers independently update their lineups at essentially the exact same time (since the FC error was brief), they both get Kyrie/Lamb lineups in their pool, neither of them notice at the time, they both upload their new GPP lineups independently, and then both of them also need to scramble to independently update their MNF contests before lock. Oh, also, they both use the same projection system (admitted by them) yet don’t have any overlap in lineups, which seems impossible.

    Scenario 2: One brother handles both accounts for this slate’s NBA upload, makes the mistake once, and thus they are both affected.

    If we say that each brother has a 1 in 100 chance of making this mistake (honestly that’s too high, but we’ll go with it), then the odds of them both making that mistake on the same night are 1 in 10,000.

    It’s patently absurd to think that scenario 1 happened. Clearly, one person was uploading lineups for two accounts. It’s completely insane to suggest otherwise in this case.

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