STRATEGY FORUM

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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 9/27
    8:00 PM EST : N Carolina ( 18.5 ) at Miami (FL) ( -18.5 ) —- T: 56

    Friday, 9/28
    8:00 PM EST : Memphis ( -14.5 ) at Tulane ( 14.5 ) —- T: 67
    9:00 PM EST : UCLA ( 10 ) at Colorado ( -10 ) —- T: 61

    Saturday, 9/29
    12:00 PM EST : Army ( 9 ) at Buffalo ( -9 ) —- T: 52
    12:00 PM EST : LA Lafayette ( 48.5 ) at Alabama ( -48.5 ) —- T: 65
    12:00 PM EST : Arkansas ( 20 ) at Texas A&M ( -20 ) —- T: 61
    12:00 PM EST : Temple ( 14 ) at Boston Col ( -14 ) —- T: 53
    12:00 PM EST : Oklahoma St ( -18 ) at Kansas ( 18 ) —- T: 63
    12:00 PM EST : Bowling Grn ( 28 ) at GA Tech ( -28 ) —- T: 65
    12:00 PM EST : Syracuse ( 22 ) at Clemson ( -22 ) —- T: 64
    12:00 PM EST : Central Mich ( 28.5 ) at Michigan St ( -28.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    12:00 PM EST : Indiana ( -17.5 ) at Rutgers ( 17.5 ) —- T: 52
    12:00 PM EST : W Virginia ( -3.5 ) at Texas Tech ( 3.5 ) —- T: 76.5
    12:20 PM EST : Virginia ( 7 ) at NC State ( -7 ) —- T: 53
    2:00 PM EST : LA Monroe ( -8 ) at Georgia State ( 8 ) —- T: 63
    2:00 PM EST : U Mass ( 13 ) at Ohio ( -13 ) —- T: 70
    3:00 PM EST : Kent State ( 8.5 ) at Ball State ( -8.5 ) —- T: 61
    3:30 PM EST : Old Dominion ( 5 ) at E Carolina ( -5 ) —- T: 64
    3:30 PM EST : Rice ( 25.5 ) at Wake Forest ( -25.5 ) —- T: 67
    3:30 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 15.5 ) at Central FL ( -15.5 ) —- T: 66
    3:30 PM EST : Coastal Car ( 13.5 ) at Troy ( -13.5 ) —- T: 54
    3:30 PM EST : Baylor ( 23.5 ) at Oklahoma ( -23.5 ) —- T: 68.5
    3:30 PM EST : Tennessee ( 31.5 ) at Georgia ( -31.5 ) —- T: 54
    3:30 PM EST : W Michigan ( 2 ) at Miami (OH) ( -2 ) —- T: 55
    3:30 PM EST : S Alabama ( 26 ) at App State ( -26 ) —- T: 60
    3:30 PM EST : Cincinnati ( -17 ) at Connecticut ( 17 ) —- T: 60
    3:30 PM EST : Purdue ( -3 ) at Nebraska ( 3 ) —- T: 54.5
    3:30 PM EST : Florida St ( -6 ) at Louisville ( 6 ) —- T: 47
    3:30 PM EST : Texas ( -8.5 ) at Kansas St ( 8.5 ) —- T: 48
    4:00 PM EST : S Mississippi ( 28 ) at Auburn ( -28 ) —- T: 53
    4:00 PM EST : Nevada ( 6.5 ) at Air Force ( -6.5 ) —- T: 69
    4:30 PM EST : Michigan ( -13.5 ) at Northwestern ( 13.5 ) —- T: 48
    6:00 PM EST : N Illinois ( 3.5 ) at E Michigan ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46
    6:00 PM EST : Florida ( 7.5 ) at Miss State ( -7.5 ) —- T: 50.5
    6:00 PM EST : Utah ( -1 ) at Wash State ( 1 ) —- T: 51.5
    6:00 PM EST : Liberty ( 6 ) at New Mexico ( -6 ) —- T: 64.5
    6:00 PM EST : Arkansas St ( -3 ) at GA Southern ( 3 ) —- T: 56.5
    7:00 PM EST : Charlotte ( 17 ) at UAB ( -17 ) —- T: 51.5
    7:00 PM EST : VA Tech ( 5.5 ) at Duke ( -5.5 ) —- T: 50
    7:00 PM EST : Boise State ( -17 ) at Wyoming ( 17 ) —- T: 47
    7:00 PM EST : Fla Atlantic ( -4.5 ) at Middle Tenn ( 4.5 ) —- T: 67.5
    7:00 PM EST : Hawaii ( -13 ) at San Jose St ( 13 ) —- T: 67.5
    7:00 PM EST : TX El Paso ( 10.5 ) at TX-San Ant ( -10.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    7:00 PM EST : Iowa State ( 10.5 ) at TX Christian ( -10.5 ) —- T: 50
    7:30 PM EST : LA Tech ( 7.5 ) at North Texas ( -7.5 ) —- T: 65
    7:30 PM EST : BYU ( 17 ) at Washington ( -17 ) —- T: 44
    7:30 PM EST : Marshall ( -6.5 ) at W Kentucky ( 6.5 ) —- T: 50
    7:30 PM EST : Ohio State ( -3.5 ) at Penn State ( 3.5 ) —- T: 68
    7:30 PM EST : Stanford ( 4.5 ) at Notre Dame ( -4.5 ) —- T: 54
    7:30 PM EST : S Carolina ( 1.5 ) at Kentucky ( -1.5 ) —- T: 50.5
    9:00 PM EST : Mississippi ( 11.5 ) at LSU ( -11.5 ) —- T: 58.5
    10:00 PM EST : Oregon St ( 21.5 ) at Arizona St ( -21.5 ) —- T: 62.5
    10:30 PM EST : Toledo ( 8 ) at Fresno St ( -8 ) —- T: 60
    10:30 PM EST : Oregon ( -3 ) at California ( 3 ) —- T: 59
    10:30 PM EST : USC ( -3 ) at Arizona ( 3 ) —- T: 61

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – CFB strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks CFB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Dadeano860

    According to Vegas: Alabama 57- ULL 8. Haha.

  • leib0039

    Would really help to know what is going to happen with Hurts. He has his 4 games in so he can still redshirt, but will he? if he does that helps Tua’s value.

    I am going to end up with too much Jauan Jennings this week. Awful matchup, awful QB play but man he is cheap and he has legit next level talent if he ever figures it out.

  • jtkucheck

    That 77 O/U and 3.5 point spread in WVU/TT would be amazing if we were able to take more than 3 players from it and still have room to fill out a lineup.

  • leib0039

    The pricing has continued to be VERY tight on both sites. Its CFB, not like one guy will be 90% owned. last week a near min sal stud qb for ND got the start and was 11% owned.

  • Dadeano860

    @jtkucheck said...

    That 77 O/U and 3.5 point spread in WVU/TT would be amazing if we were able to take more than 3 players from it and still have room to fill out a lineup.

    Don’t agree with this. Tight pricing is a good thing. That’s three whole point, so every lineup has 6 guys from TT/WVU.

    Lots of higher team totals than those 2 anyway

  • jtkucheck

    @Dadeano860 said...

    Lots of higher team totals than those 2 anyway

    If there’s another game on the main slate that has a higher total and an equally tight spread I must have overlooked it- feel free to point it out.

  • Dadeano860

    @leib0039 said...

    The pricing has continued to be VERY tight on both sites. Its CFB, not like one guy will be 90% owned. last week a near min sal stud qb for ND got the start and was 11% owned.

    AJ Dillon was an unassailable “chalk” play for BC – 6 point favorites, 38 point team total, 30+ carries expected. Didn’t see him more than 65% owned in cash.

  • Dadeano860

    @jtkucheck said...

    If there’s another game on the main slate that has a higher total and an equally tight spread I must have overlooked it- feel free to point it out.

    I said team totals. Not game over/under. Yes, all team totals are not created equal (Alabama’s 57, last 3-4 TDs will be scored by backups), but UCF is right there.

  • lagee

    @jtkucheck said...

    If there’s another game on the main slate that has a higher total and an equally tight spread I must have overlooked it- feel free to point it out.

    It’s not completely comparible but Ohio St v Penn is 68 with -3.5. OSU has a slew of WR to select from so other than Campbell, take your pick. I’ll be going with Haskins/Sanders in most.

  • cwatson51

    the pricing sucks. bottom line. cant play grier and get anyone else in around it. eh its taken a lot of fun out of it for me and many others I know.

  • lagee

    I think that’s what’s great about DFS college football. Sure it’s tough to get in the star players but in CFB the stars rarely bust (other than Dillon last week). The point is to research, find the sleepers and build around them.

  • Dadeano860

    @lagee said...

    I think that’s what’s great about DFS college football. Sure it’s tough to get in the star players but in CFB the stars rarely bust (other than Dillon last week). The point is to research, find the sleepers and build around them

    Completely, 100% agree. I love reading the local papers, digging for a sleeper.

    Maybe I’m in the minority, but that’s fun to me. Its not fun when you can just pick all studs and fill in with the chalk sleeper everyone has. Huge variety of lineups and strategies have to be used now, I think its great.

    And speaking of Grier- how do we rank the QBs on the main slate? I say: Murray, Milton, Grier, Bowman (best to worst).

  • Stangs13

    I hate the pricing for the simple fact that I can’t make a lineup I even like. I’ve been able to find some sleepers and such but it’s still really just a dart throw at those guys. I can’t make a lineup where I feel comfortable with much of my team. Other sports you can make a lineup without feeling like you are totally punting a position or two.

  • jtkucheck

    @lagee said...

    It’s not completely comparible but Ohio St v Penn is 68 with -3.5. OSU has a slew of WR to select from so other than Campbell, take your pick. I’ll be going with Haskins/Sanders in most.

    That game also isn’t on the DK main slate…

  • Dadeano860

    @Stangs13 said...

    I hate the pricing for the simple fact that I can’t make a lineup I even like. I’ve been able to find some sleepers and such but it’s still really just a dart throw at those guys. I can’t make a lineup where I feel comfortable with much of my team. Other sports you can make a lineup without feeling like you are totally punting a position or two.

    Everyone has the same salary and player pool. I dont get these complaints.

  • Stangs13

    Sure I agree everyone has the same salary and players but I just think it would be more fun if you could take all starting caliber players and not backup running backs and a #4 receiver. NFL for example we could pay up for Kamara and still afford to get a number 2 wr like boyd who was a dart throw but at least you knew he would see the field.

  • Puma103185

    The pricing is what makes college the best to play. Those with knowledge have the biggest advantage. The NFL has become so saturated that there really aren’t as many sleeper plays. NBA is most just about adjusting to last minute news. MLB is a crapshoot every night.

    I will say I do like the pricing setup on DraftKings a lot better than Fan Duel.

  • Trappist1

    @Puma103185 said...

    The pricing is what makes college the best to play. Those with knowledge have the biggest advantage. The NFL has become so saturated that there really aren’t as many sleeper plays. NBA is most just about adjusting to last minute news. MLB is a crapshoot every night.

    I will say I do like the pricing setup on DraftKings a lot better than Fan Duel.

    100% agreed, there is information scarcity for college football and the pricing is sharp at DK. It is the combination we want in DFS and those that dig deeper for the information will have the biggest advantage. The more like this the merrier.

  • jtkucheck

    @Trappist1 said...

    100% agreed, there is information scarcity for college football and the pricing is sharp at DK. It is the combination we want in DFS and those that dig deeper for the information will have the biggest advantage. The more like this the merrier.

    I agree with this. Just wish there was more transparency in reporting… coaches don’t name starters or they say super hedgy things that don’t really lead to actionable +EV decisions. Was initially just expressing frustration that one of the few known quantity games (high total, low spread) was no longer usable because everyone from that game is priced through the roof.

    When you say “dig deeper”, what does that mean exactly? I consider myself fairly astute at Twitter and the Interwebs and yet found myself in the 65% of folks that did not know AJ Dillon would be terrible last week. What source did you consult to find this out?

  • Trappist1

    @jtkucheck said...

    I agree with this. Just wish there was more transparency in reporting… coaches don’t name starters or they say super hedgy things that don’t really lead to actionable +EV decisions. Was initially just expressing frustration that one of the few known quantity games (high total, low spread) was no longer usable because everyone from that game is priced through the roof.

    When you say “dig deeper”, what does that mean exactly? I consider myself fairly astute at Twitter and the Interwebs and yet found myself in the 65% of folks that did not know AJ Dillon would be terrible last week. What source did you consult to find this out?

    I set two twitter list for CFB, one is general one and the other one is specific for DFS which has actionable information for CFB. I am still trying to add more to the twitter list. I will start with this one https://twitter.com/FranchiseKF and see where it takes you. When I mean dig deeper is look at who they follow, what lists they have, what they have liked and who they retweet and if you find useful stuff then you can curate your own CFB twitter list and I always set my twitter list to private as well.

  • Dadeano860

    @jtkucheck said...

    When you say “dig deeper”, what does that mean exactly? I consider myself fairly astute at Twitter and the Interwebs and yet found myself in the 65% of folks that did not know AJ Dillon would be terrible last week. What source did you consult to find this out?

    What kind of logic are you using in this argument? I outlined above why AJ Dillon was an unassailable cash game play. Workload, 38 point team total, 6 point favorites, Purdue weak vs run, etc… if you played him your process is correct but result wrong. Nothing wrong with that. Who doesn’t go all in with Aces?

    And if your process leads you to rostering a #4 WRs and backup RBs- you’re doing it wrong. Although I am taking a hard look at the #3 Alabama RB Jacobs this week, shhhh….

  • Dadeano860

    @Trappist1 said...

    100% agreed, there is information scarcity for college football and the pricing is sharp at DK. It is the combination we want in DFS and those that dig deeper for the information will have the biggest advantage. The more like this the merrier.

    Heck yeah. Twitter and local beat writers is where I go for NCAA info. Takes a week sometimes, but I am usually comfortable with 1-2 sub-$4000 players by Saturday.

  • jtkucheck

    @Dadeano860 said...

    What kind of logic are you using in this argument? I outlined above why AJ Dillon was an unassailable cash game play. Workload, 38 point team total, 6 point favorites, Purdue weak vs run, etc… if you played him your process is correct but result wrong. Nothing wrong with that. Who doesn’t go all in with Aces?

    You know what- looking back at the thread I think I misread the earlier comment on Dillon. Thought you were saying after the fact that we all should have known he was going to bust- I now see this was not at all the intent of your comment.

    What’s funny is I also started looking at Jacobs more than I probably should be… have a feeling Saban will continue to reward him for those ridiculous blocks that sprung Spruggs, and there will obviously be plenty of mop up time for him to do so. Beyond that I also think Etienne sets up pretty well for not a ridiculous price and them not needing to push Trevor Lawrence too much so far.

    I’ll also probably look to Ja’Deion High if Vasher ends up not playing and WVU WR roulette, but beyond that I’m not seeing a ton of value jump off the page just yet. I guess it is only Wednesday.

  • Dadeano860

    @jtkucheck said...

    What’s funny is I also started looking at Jacobs more than I probably should be… have a feeling Saban will continue to reward him for those ridiculous blocks that sprung Spruggs, and there will obviously be plenty of mop up time for him to do so. Beyond that I also think Etienne sets up pretty well for not a ridiculous price and them not needing to push Trevor Lawrence too much so far.

    I have 2 builds so far. One includes punts like Jacobs….. the other has Etienne and Swift. Etienne and Swift are too cheap for their talent/role. An article came out this week that Swift has been struggling with a groin issue, that’s why he’s been used lightly and less explosive this year- he claims he’s fine now. Etienne is just too cheap vs Syracuse. Issue with those guys is do you want to find a way to spend a bit more and get Hollywood Brown/Wesley? The WRs have bigger upside, but more variable – look at Brown, he’s every other game, put up a big goose egg vs ARMY.

  • Dadeano860

    @jtkucheck said...

    I’ll also probably look to Ja’Deion High if Vasher ends up not playing and WVU WR roulette, but beyond that I’m not seeing a ton of value jump off the page just yet. I guess it is only Wednesday.

    You can’t run vs Clemson. Texas A&M threw for 430 vs them. I think the Syracuse WRs are underpriced….I favor Custis. Pretty sure Vasher is going to be out thus all the Texas Tech WRs should be considered, value there too. Ja’Deion High is actually the WR I like the least in terms of value (I think he’s too expensive for his volume in comparison to the others).

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