STRATEGY FORUM

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  • rploch87

    Hi all, I am looking for advice on contest selection. I have been playing a combination of 50/50 cash games and GPP Sunday Million tournaments on FanDuel for the most part at around a 75-25 split. I only make ONE entry with high floor, low risk players (grinding). During the first 5 weeks, I have faired very well scoring on average of around 140 points a week (Henderson hurt me week 4). As I invest more money every week into contests I want to ensure I am making the mathematically best decision with my contest selection. Here is my confusion. My ROI for 50/50’s is obviously 80%, but the cutoff is around 135-136 points most weeks. My ROI for GPP has been about 60%, but the cutoff is around 5 or 6 points lower than the 50/50 cutoff. My question is this – do I enter more Sunday Millions because the cutoff is lower and therefore less risk because I only need, hypothetically, 5 points less to win compared to 50/50’s. Or is it worth giving up the 5 or 6 points of buffer to win 20-30% more return on my investment? Everyone states that 50/50’s and H2H are the safest and most consistent, however, I’m finding that the trend this year is that the cutoff is always lower on the big tournament – therefore, if I have to score less points to win isn’t it actually the safer bet? I’m not looking for “who cares, you are winning” or “do what you feel works”, etc. I am looking for mathematically reasoning why in this comparison what is the right bet for me to make. I am looking for wisdom here – so that when I do have a down week that I will potentially lose less or have the best statistical chance to win each week. If you have additional selection advice, I will gladly accept it. Thanks in advance!

  • Volkster6

    So my understanding of this is you are entering a H2H LU in the Sunday million and trying to reach min cash in both contests? And your cash game line up is getting closer by a few points than your GPP Lu correct? But your main query is regarding contest selection???

    Let’s say I understand what you are getting at. Playing that type of LU in the Sunday million is -EV long term, and you should be looking for comparable GPPs (2x return ideally) to play instead. The reason you are seeing the cash line lower in the Sunday Million is because of the level of play. The higher the entry fee, the sharper the play, the higher the cash line…. the lower the entry fee, the fishier the play, the lower the cash line… make sense?

    Your best statistical advantage each week is to study the cashing LUs in various GPPs at various price levels, and compare them to your cash LU. Or to build more high risk GPP lineups

  • rploch87

    You are on the right track of my question. I am currently playing one single lineup for every entry – cash game and GPP. So despite the difference in style of play in these, I have used only one lineup. My goal to this point has been simply cash and win every week. So instead of winning the GPP, my goal is the same as the 50/50 – hit the cash line. Of course, there is still the added hope that my 50 SAME entries in the GPP hit deeper into the money – but understandably these lineups are not created for deep cashes. My question overall is, if this is my strategy, then the pay line is lower in these lower variance, higher novice player tournaments which means they are hypothetically safer than the 50/50’s in terms of my goal of cashing. If I was accepting of a lower ROI, would this actually be the safer bet to cash week after week because I can score 5 or 6 points less in these? In addition, I guess I am looking for explanation why pros play higher entry fee, higher risk (with higher pay lines) 50/50’s rather than safer, lower pay line tournaments to maintain bankroll? I understand they play both, but with a more limited bankroll with the only goal of cashing and building – would it make sense to take advantage of the lower pay line?

  • Volkster6

    Perfect. So you and I are on the same page.

    Ok first off, pros or anyone with over a million in entry fees cannot play the lower entry cash games so that’s why you don’t see them down there.

    Second – yes if your goal is to build to min cash above the rake (for example in the milly on DK Sunday it’s only 1.5x) you need to get past that line to remain profitable. Because this line makes up roughly 22% of the income/paying spots for that particular GPP it can be tough in the long run to profit with this strategy. Sure one week you might make 50 LUs as you said that get to 2500th place as a train, netting you a 5x return, but if every other of the 17 weeks you only min cash you’re only getting $500 for the $1000 you put in so….
    $16,000 in ($8,000 out) for 16 weeks
    $1000 in ($5000 out) for 1 week

    Net -$4000 season long (don’t forget the $1000 you paid to win the $5000)

    My advice: look for a contest like the $9 dollar 2x min instead or the $0.25 juke box to practice first.
    A) you can add more LUs within your bankroll in the $9
    B) your min cash is 2x and doubling your money takes advantage of the weaker cash line still.
    That said, don’t forget that pros love the $9 2x for this reason as well, so it on average has a sharper cash line then the $20 dollar milly, but only a few points here and there.

    Unless you are building LUs that can get above the 22% to min cash bubble for your train, you aren’t profitable long term. Analyze the LUs that have gotten to that level consistently over the last few seasons if you are dead set on the entering the milly in hopes of that one insane time where everything falls into place. OR… enter 50 different LUs (using 50 as your number) that can theoretically win 1st place.

  • rploch87

    That all makes sense, I appreciate the advice. That’s been something that seems to be a different approach for the companies to not have the minimum cash line be 2x your money in those big tournaments. The buy-in was $9 and win $18. Now its these lower entry fee with the bait of you can win a million. Problem is they throw so much of the prize pool into 1st place, the prizes below get drained. I’ve been hoping and waiting for the entry fee to raise and the minimum to raise, but they seem to be sticking with it this year. The 56% ROI is not ideal that’s for sure. I guess that’s what I was trying to determine if it was worth to continue putting the bulk of my entries into 50/50’s and taking the 80% ROI, or to possibly just stack my entries into a lower cash line tournament instead. But you are right, it would take the whole season to make a decent amount because of that low pay line. I have done well playing 50/50’s thus far anyway, but I was thinking long-term risk and trying to get reasoning of why I should continue instead of just doing it “because I’m suppose to.” I appreciate the break down and help. I think you’ve helped me determine that my current course is the right one at the moment, but with maybe alternative GPP selection. Then as I move along and build confidence, start to wonder into more complex entry selection and lineup analyses. Again, I appreciate your time!

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