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  • terrymandangle

    I have been hearing alot of people referring to “their projections”. How do you come up with your own projections?

  • sethayates

    @terrymandangle said...

    I have been hearing alot of people referring to “their projections”. How do you come up with your own projections?

    Serious question here. Why would you want to create your own projections? It’s quite a bit of work. Why wouldn’t you just subscribe to RG incentives or one of the other sites that already offers projections? If you buy RG incetnives you get the projections as well as the lineup builder. I highly doubt anyone who doesn’t have an advanced knowledge of statistics (the math discipline, not looking at box scores) would be able to build anything better than what you can already get here for relatively cheap. I think incentives is $100 for the whole season correct? The NBA runs from Nov-April. So you are getting 7 months worth of projections for $100. Divide that by the month and you are paying about $14 per month. Divide that by the day and you are paying just under $0.50 per day. Creating your own projection system is going to involve at least two hours per day just updating stats and expected minutes. I can’t see how that is worth it unless you simply enjoy doing the work yourself and also have the free time.

  • colinwdrew

    • 305

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2020 DraftKings FHWC Champion

    • 2018 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    I create my own projections for NHL and would be happy to talk you through the process I use over email. It is more suited for a blog than forum though. I think it is the single thing that has improved my DFS game the most this year and would highly recommend it. Especially for a sport like hockey where fewer resources are out there.

    It isn’t just about the numbers, going through the process teaches you to think critically about the game and more instinctively adapt. John Tavares is projected for 4.84 pts on NumberFire, but even if I thought that number was good (I don’t), would you understand why? How would that change if a different goalie was starting? What are the odds that he puts up the 6+ points I want for a GPP? Building your own projections allows you to have a data set to look at stuff like that and forces you to think through things over time.

    My opinion on this might be different if I was playing NBA which gets more love, but if you don’t know what a site incorporates into their projections (DvP or player specific matchups?) it is hard to just trust them.

  • fallbackson

    @sethayates said...

    Serious question here. Why would you want to create your own projections? It’s quite a bit of work. Why wouldn’t you just subscribe to RG incentives or one of the other sites that already offers projections? If you buy RG incetnives you get the projections as well as the lineup builder. I highly doubt anyone who doesn’t have an advanced knowledge of statistics (the math discipline, not looking at box scores) would be able to build anything better than what you can already get here for relatively cheap. I think incentives is $100 for the whole season correct? The NBA runs from Nov-April. So you are getting 7 months worth of projections for $100. Divide that by the month and you are paying about $14 per month. Divide that by the day and you are paying just under $0.50 per day. Creating your own projection system is going to involve at least two hours per day just updating stats and expected minutes. I can’t see how that is worth it unless you simply enjoy doing the work yourself and also have the free time.

    because they are off, by a lot. creating your own, you don’t have to be right but you can get a better look at the numbers.

    how do they get to the numbers? nobody knows. coming up with your own, you can see exactly how you got to that number

  • huitcinq

    I have created my own projections for NFL, PGA, and MMA.

    1) Once you build it, does not make that much time to update. Additionally, you don’t just build it one day. You start from the ground floor and constantly tweak and improve it over time.

    2) Creating your own projection system can comprise of amalgating other projections such as RG incentives, PFF, Yahoo, etc.

    3) Creating your own projection system is a way to differentiate your picks from the herd (positively or negatively), which is key to winning GPPs.

    Also there are tons of different ways to build a projection system so it’s not a simple question of “how do you do it”. For NBA, look at the difference between RG Incentives, Numberfire, and Swish analytics for example. All use completely different methodologies. Or in football, take the example of PFF. Their projections are based on their in house player rating system, and thus they do it completely differently from anyone else.

    To terry’s point, I could easily tell you just use rotoworld’s lineup builder, it’s free and you’ll save $100. You’re paying $0.00 per day. But what happens when you use lineup optimizers that are accessible to thousands of players? You’re much less likely to create unique, differentiated lineups.

    In the end, a projection system is just a tool in your arsenal as a DFS player. Whether you get projections from numberfire, yahoo, RG, or build them yourself, it’s how you use that tool that will determine whether or not you become a winning player.

  • terrymandangle

    @sethayates said...

    Serious question here. Why would you want to create your own projections? It’s quite a bit of work. Why wouldn’t you just subscribe to RG incentives or one of the other sites that already offers projections? If you buy RG incetnives you get the projections as well as the lineup builder. I highly doubt anyone who doesn’t have an advanced knowledge of statistics (the math discipline, not looking at box scores) would be able to build anything better than what you can already get here for relatively cheap. I think incentives is $100 for the whole season correct? The NBA runs from Nov-April. So you are getting 7 months worth of projections for $100. Divide that by the month and you are paying about $14 per month. Divide that by the day and you are paying just under $0.50 per day. Creating your own projection system is going to involve at least two hours per day just updating stats and expected minutes. I can’t see how that is worth it unless you simply enjoy doing the work yourself and also have the free time.

    I have incentives for DK and I agree with you, they are amazing and save a ton of time. It’s really just a topic I am interested in and wanted to start a discussion to see where everyone stands.

  • terrymandangle

    @huitcinq said...

    I have created my own projections for NFL, PGA, and MMA.

    1) Once you build it, does not make that much time to update. Additionally, you don’t just build it one day. You start from the ground floor and constantly tweak and improve it over time.

    2) Creating your own projection system can comprise of amalgating other projections such as RG incentives, PFF, Yahoo, etc.

    3) Creating your own projection system is a way to differentiate your picks from the herd (positively or negatively), which is key to winning GPPs.

    Also there are tons of different ways to build a projection system so it’s not a simple question of “how do you do it”. For NBA, look at the difference between RG Incentives, Numberfire, and Swish analytics for example. All use completely different methodologies. Or in football, take the example of PFF. Their projections are based on their in house player rating system, and thus they do it completely differently from anyone else.

    To terry’s point, I could easily tell you just use rotoworld’s lineup builder, it’s free and you’ll save $100. You’re paying $0.00 per day. But what happens when you use lineup optimizers that are accessible to thousands of players? You’re much less likely to create unique, differentiated lineups.

    In the end, a projection system is just a tool in your arsenal as a DFS player. Whether you get projections from numberfire, yahoo, RG, or build them yourself, it’s how you use that tool that will determine whether or not you become a winning player.

    This is very insightful. I definitely don’t think it would be easy or quick.

  • sethayates

    @terrymandangle said...

    I have incentives for DK and I agree with you, they are amazing and save a ton of time. It’s really just a topic I am interested in and wanted to start a discussion to see where everyone stands.

    It is an interesting discussion to have. There is some good advice in this thread. I think if I were to start my own projection system I wouldn’t try to re-invent the wheel. Find three or four sources that already provide pojections. Track them for accuracy and then use that information to blend them together giving the most weight to projections which are most accurate. A system like this isn’t likely to build a team for you every day but it would give a nice baseline into which players are worth looking into. If done right, I think a good projection system could cut down quite a bit of research time. Instead of lookinga t every single player spend time digging into the players the model likes.

  • ldmariodl28

    • Blogger of the Month

    @sethayates said...

    It is an interesting discussion to have. There is some good advice in this thread. I think if I were to start my own projection system I wouldn’t try to re-invent the wheel. Find three or four sources that already provide pojections. Track them for accuracy and then use that information to blend them together giving the most weight to projections which are most accurate. A system like this isn’t likely to build a team for you every day but it would give a nice baseline into which players are worth looking into. If done right, I think a good projection system could cut down quite a bit of research time. Instead of lookinga t every single player spend time digging into the players the model likes.

    Correct me if im wrong, but didnt you put out a blog here at RG about creating your own projection system?

  • huitcinq

    @terrymandangle said...

    This is very insightful. I definitely don’t think it would be easy or quick.

    If you have good experience working with data, spreadsheets, etc it significantly cuts down on the time spent.

    I’m an engineer, so all the tools I use to build projections and lineup optimizers are tools I’m familiar with and use on a regular basis.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @sethayates said...

    It is an interesting discussion to have. There is some good advice in this thread. I think if I were to start my own projection system I wouldn’t try to re-invent the wheel. Find three or four sources that already provide pojections. Track them for accuracy and then use that information to blend them together giving the most weight to projections which are most accurate. A system like this isn’t likely to build a team for you every day but it would give a nice baseline into which players are worth looking into. If done right, I think a good projection system could cut down quite a bit of research time. Instead of lookinga t every single player spend time digging into the players the model likes.

    This is precisely what I do and then I add multipliers based on certain factors (back-to-back, DvP, etc).

  • huitcinq

    @sethayates said...

    . A system like this isn’t likely to build a team for you every day but it would give a nice baseline into which players are worth looking into. If done right, I think a good projection system could cut down quite a bit of research time.

    Exactly. The idea is it cuts down on the time spent researching, or rather, increases the quality of the research per time spent.

    So if I devote say 8 hours a week to making NFL lineups, and one hour of that is spent updating and tweaking my projections, the idea is those other 7 hours I spend researching will be more efficient and focused due to having the projection model.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    One of the biggest benefits to doing your own projections is it allows you to stay on top of the game. I have a very good understanding of almost all the players and what their capabilities are. It also allows me to make quick decisions when last minute injury news pop up.

  • dstars5

    • Blogger of the Month

    Sort of veering off from the original post here, but you guys are saying that projections can help streamline the research process. I understand why that would work but not how. Once you have every player projected, do you just go down the list looking at each individual player? How do you differentiate between the guy at the top of your projections and the guy directly below him in second?

    Also, does anyone know if RG and Basketball Monster’s projections are made in different ways? Would those two be good candidates for finding an aggregate projections?

  • huitcinq

    @dstars5 said...

    Once you have every player projected, do you just go down the list looking at each individual player?

    Once the projections are done, using various spreadsheet tools you can filter guys above/below certain pt/$ values, find the guys with the highest pt/$ replacement value from the next guy at his position, run lineup optimizers, etc.

    The only limit is your imagination and creativity as a DFSer.

  • terrymandangle

    I have a very basic understanding of excel. I can create a basic spreadsheet and that is about it. I work at a university and they offer excel courses that I can take for free. Would you advise taking that course? Would it make a noticeable difference?

  • sethayates

    @ldmariodl28 said...

    Correct me if im wrong, but didnt you put out a blog here at RG about creating your own projection system?

    That’s correct. My blog was explaining the basics of data forecasting. It was an attempt to show people how to find out if the data they are looking at is actually correlated. I found that in football a rushing attempt has a correlation value of R2=0.9041 with fantasy points. No one would be shocked to learn that more carries possibly equal more fantasy points. I also showed the formula for calculating what a carry is worth which was y=0.5297x -0.219. If you fill in the X there it would give you a projection. That’s only one small piece of creating a projection system.

    If I did the same for NBA, more minutes would obviously correlate well with more fantasy points. In order to accurately forecast you would have to have more than one variable and constantly tweak it until you found an R2 value over .95. It’s a lot of work and it has to be constantly updated unless you are smart enough to write a script that can automate it.

    That was my only point with my original post. Unless you are really good with statistics, you are better off to take other people’s projections and tweak them. Above, someone mentioned that RG’s projections aren’t accurate. Part of that is the sudden change in projected minutes. If you can reverse engineer the RG projections, you could then plug in your own number for expected minutes and get a more accurate projection.

    By the way here is the blog I wrote that you are referencing. https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/creating-a-projection-system-for-beginners-399030#reply-399030

  • hambazaza

    RG Blog Program Manager, 2014 RG Party Beer Pong Champion

    • Blogger of the Month

    • Beer Pong Champion

    @ldmariodl28 said...

    Correct me if im wrong, but didnt you put out a blog here at RG about creating your own projection system?

    I’d like to plus 1 this please

  • huitcinq

    @terrymandangle said...

    I have a very basic understanding of excel. I can create a basic spreadsheet and that is about it. I work at a university and they offer excel courses that I can take for free. Would you advise taking that course? Would it make a noticeable difference?

    I would advise you to, but not only for DFS. For any kind office job, if you’re really good at excel there’s all kinds of stuff you can do above and beyond someone who doesn’t have the excel knowledge. There’s tons and tons of free material and tutorials online though.

    But, it’s not so much being familiar with the software as it is having an affinity with data. Once you understand how to use excel you still have to understand how to use it for your purpose.

    Personally, I would say that it would not make a noticable difference in your DFSing compared to other things you could be doing with that time.

  • dstars5

    • Blogger of the Month

    Seth – You mention in there that a more elaborate projection system would include a variety of other factors. How exactly would you include these? Would you follow a similar process for each factor (DvP, Carries, Vegas Totals, etc) and average them?

  • huitcinq

    Though I would still encourage you to take the course.

  • huitcinq

    @dstars5 said...

    Seth – You mention in there that a more elaborate projection system would include a variety of other factors. How exactly would you include these? Would you follow a similar process for each factor (DvP, Carries, Vegas Totals, etc) and average them?

    This stuff is like alchemy. There will never be a perfect projection system. Sometimes a simple vegas based projection system will be more accurate than a full PFF one (using individual player ratings based on watching every player on single play of the season) or Numberfire (who I believe lean heavily on body types and speed and how they correlate to historical players with comparable skills and build in addition to a players matchup and performance).

    You can literally use anything you can think of as long as you can get your hands on some data. For PGA I looked into building a player rating system based on how they perform in rainy weather and using it to project tournaments where the weather is poor. But that became overkill real quick.

  • gibbathy

    2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year

    • Blogger of the Month

    I do most of my spreadsheets through google docs. I’d prefer the features of Excel but I start and finish my research in different locations throughout the week.

  • terrymandangle

    Also good advice. Love google docs for that exact reason.

  • huitcinq

    I can’t risk my projections being hacked. I carry a thumbdrive on me at all times, never know when I’m gonna need to crack out some lineups. I have a sweet holster too.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    “There will never be a perfect projection system.”

    +1.

    With that said, I make my own projections. This also allows me to get into standard deviations and such garbage. Who would have thought Bledsoe would do well against Memphis? I knew he had a 54.6% to do better than his season average and was autostart for late games. RW was 82.3% and Waiters was 97.6%.

    With that said, there isn’t much difference between my projections, RGs, or BBMs. The difference lies in the ranges, the standard deviations, the abnormal distributions of a player’s DFS points. One thing I think my projections do have the advantage over others is that they seem to weight recent performance so heavily.

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