NHL FORUM

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  • goldengoat29

    Perhaps invoking Jimmy Carter while in the midst of a DFS funk is not the best way of appealing to the overlords of fortune. I vaguely recall Jimmy Carter’s (in)famous “Crisis of Confidence” speech playing in the background in one of the scenes in “Miracle”— so a hockey connection is there. The speech was put in there to serve as a reminder of the malaise of the time and how the surprising victory of USA men’s hockey team was one of the few bright spots.

    Anyway — for the third straight year, I have made an effort to carve out a small fortune playing the NHL cash game. 50/50s exclusively. For the third straight year, I have ridden a wave of invincibility to a small profit, inspiring hope of riches to come, only to come crashing down once firmly invested. I built up my $25 investment to $250, now I’m down to $89 and, disillusioned with the cash game, just entered the $27 1k Dangle. Not the best bankroll management but I’ve seen worse.

    This time around, I took it upon myself to record my 50/50 results night in and night out. DraftKings makes no effort to put one’s record in presentable form. Over 30 nights (or slates) I have won 18 times (or come out ahead) while losing 12 times (three of these losing nights were split nights). Moreover, I have also kept track of how well I have done against the pros, whom I compete with practically every night at all stakes. Over 21 nights, I am 11 and 10 against Testosterown — meaning 11 out of our 21 meetings I finished higher in a contest than he did. Over 26 meetings, I am .500 with SaahilSud. Ditto, PetrGibbons. Lowkey has one win on me. And it goes on. All things considered, over this (small or small-ish) sample, I am pretty much .500 against the pros. Not to say the pros aren’t placing in the 50/50s at a better clip than I am but if we were playing H2H “presumably” I would be breaking even with them.

    I don’t know where I should go from here. Should I keep at it or is, in a high variance sport like hockey, cash an egregious waste of time? Well, maybe my words are too strong, rather: time could be better allocated playing GPP or contests with top heavy prizes?

    To be honest, I love the process. When it comes time to building my lineup, I steal away to a local coffeeshop with my computer. Put my iTunes on shuffle. Position each browser tab in a particular way. Until the puck drops, my gaze is fasted to the computer screen like a fat indolent youth playing World of Warcraft.

    What I love about 50/50s is they are like a puzzle. This player is a puzzle piece which must go here. It all makes sense in the lineup building phase but then the games begin and everything is wrecked. It’s like you’re building a puzzle of the London Bridge then by night’s end you find you were expected to build a three dimensional elephant comprised of glued pieces.
    The capricious sport of hockey has a way of stanching the flow of your analytic juices. Like among the 10 teams playing in the 5-game slate last night, the Flames were the team I paid the least amount of attention to. In fact, to underscore how little I focused on the Flames, I didn’t even know of Johnny Hockey’s return until the first roster freeze (not that I would have been inclined to use him at $6400). As for that particular game, I wound up using Vatanen with the amount of money I had leftover. The Flames came in pacing the NHL in minor penalties and sporting the third worst penalty kill (not a good combination). It inspired me to get a piece of the Ducks PP1. I used the same logic with the Hawks against the oft-penalized Jets. Neither Kane nor Keith carried their investment.

    When it came to my goaltender selection, I turned my back to advanced statistics and followed Vegas. I chose Halak. The Isles had knocked off the defending champs then, as an encore, to everyone’s surprise, shutout the Caps the next night. Carrying all this momentum and Halak fresh off of a masterful performance, notwithstanding their standing of next to worst in the NHL in expected goals against, I thought the Islanders were in play against a much softer foe on a B2B. Vegas corroborated the building narrative by projecting the Wings to score the fewest goals of any team on the night. I knew Dubnyk was the best goalie on the better team but alas I went with Halak and it cost me every 50/50.

    Anyway, I don’t want to rattle on all day. I must get to work for tonight. I guess, for starters, I should buy the NHL package some of the guys here put together. In the interim, any advice would be greatly appreciated. There is more to say but it would require the expenditure of many keystrokes.

    Any direction for me and my $60-something bankroll (which I hope is a lot more later) would be greatly appreciated.

    Thanks for reading in any case!

  • deejones49

    Hockey has the least variance you can get 2 or 3 zeroes in cash and still win. I got Sallisud heads up tonight i will post the lineup after lock and show you how easy he is to beat

  • tvsfrink

    @deejones49 said...

    Hockey has the least variance

    What.

  • bigloser11

    Up and down and all around, a typical season of DFS. jm

  • BloodGame

    .500 doesn’t cut it in this game. Rake is a killer.

  • TJF74

    It’s been said on here often that you need to win at 60% in 50/50s and H2Hs to be profitable. If you have never redeposited over the last 3 seasons, then you are way ahead of the game. You’ve got a lot of entertainment on your initial investment.

    You might consider throwing your cash lineup into the $3-4 GPPs. I would also consider H2Hs and the 3-man leagues. I think it would be easier to run off 7-8 consecutive wins against random opponents over different nights than to try to do the same in the 50/50s. Anybody can be beaten on any given night. You only have to beat one person compared to 10 in a 50/50. I have thought about starting at $5, then move to $10, $20 and $50. Once I got to $50 I would play 2 opponents. Then I would start the process over to build bankroll.

    The 50/50s on DK are so small and much harder to cash in regularly than the 100 mans on FD. There are maybe 1 or 2 100 man 50/50s on DK that will fill.

  • deejones49

    This is how you beat Saahilsud

    https://www.fanduel.com/games/17192/contests/17192-204833374/entries/1103011319/scoring

  • goldengoat29

    @deejones49 said...

    This is how you beat Saahilsud

    https://www.fanduel.com/games/17192/contests/17192-204833374/entries/1103011319/scoring

    Don’t jinx yourself. He always uses Bergeron and Krug. If, when you play Saahil, you are sorta liking those two, I advise you to play them. I didn’t really care for the Bruins here. In cash that was the one game you were safe not considering.

    I don’t understand his choices. Why risk Anderson against the Penguins when the pricing is so close? He seems to think it’s better to go for a potential big save effort over the assurance of a win.

    A lot of adrenaline right now:

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/34106972?uc=595894610

    I had a strong feeling about Karlsson but I spent his money correlating Ovechkin. I have gone to check how few have the Ovie/Backstrom combo in contest. I would imagine close to all of Backstrom’s ownership.

  • goldengoat29

    @BloodGame said...

    .500 doesn’t cut it in this game. Rake is a killer.

    My winning percentage is 60% —- I am about .500 against the pros.

  • goldengoat29

    @TJF74 said...

    It’s been said on here often that you need to win at 60% in 50/50s and H2Hs to be profitable. If you have never redeposited over the last 3 seasons, then you are way ahead of the game. You’ve got a lot of entertainment on your initial investment.

    You might consider throwing your cash lineup into the $3-4 GPPs. I would also consider H2Hs and the 3-man leagues. I think it would be easier to run off 7-8 consecutive wins against random opponents over different nights than to try to do the same in the 50/50s. Anybody can be beaten on any given night. You only have to beat one person compared to 10 in a 50/50. I have thought about starting at $5, then move to $10, $20 and $50. Once I got to $50 I would play 2 opponents. Then I would start the process over to build bankroll.

    The 50/50s on DK are so small and much harder to cash in regularly than the 100 mans on FD. There are maybe 1 or 2 100 man 50/50s on DK that will fill.

    This is exactly what I was thinking. While you play the pros at pretty much every level, once you go up in stakes, the contests become smaller and the impact of the pros is no longer diluted. Beyond $10 there aren’t 20-man 50/50s on DraftKings.

    Why does everyone say to throw cash lineups into GPPs? I’m quite sure I couldn’t take down a big Sniper unless I did some stacking. Also I don’t know say after winning a 50/50, “man I should have submitted this lineup in a big tourney!”

  • tvsfrink

    I play mostly cash games but I always throw my lineup into a GPP or two just in case. There have been a few nights where my $3 entry netted me $30 and I was very happy about it.

  • tvsfrink

    @deejones49 said...

    This is how you beat Saahilsud

    https://www.fanduel.com/games/17192/contests/17192-204833374/entries/1103011319/scoring

    Nailed it.

  • goldengoat29

    Forget 50/50s and GPPs, maybe I should just play SaahilSud H2H

  • TheTruthIsALie

    @goldengoat29 said...

    Forget 50/50s and GPPs, maybe I should just play SaahilSud H2H

    Love it! I also enjoyed reading your original post. Good luck moving forward!

  • Cityworkout

    It may be fun as entertainment but really not worth the time and effort if you are not making money.

  • TicketRaven

    There isn’t much fun in Draft Kings NHL DFS anymore – I would move over to FD – I didn’t enjoy playing FD and DK NHL DFS, but there is no other option – DraftKings doesn’t have what I need anymore. Sad. FanDuel allows me to play 7-10 lineups I make at a coffee shop and play in $2, $5, and $1 100 player lineups and take multiple games and all. I am done playing hockey on DK. There is nobody there anymore – this year has been a drag in NHL.

    My fun / hobbie of DFS for NHL is just on FD these days. getting more out of it – not a big fan of the dashboard, but definately easier to create lineups – helpful using the “who plays on what line’ and all – yeh – it has let the average guy play better, but I no longer have the time to try and wade through the waters of hours a day.

    FD is my new home.

  • qatman

    @goldengoat29 said...

    Why does everyone say to throw cash lineups into GPPs? I’m quite sure I couldn’t take down a big Sniper unless I did some stacking. Also I don’t know say after winning a 50/50, “man I should have submitted this lineup in a big tourney!”

    Because while you are unlikely to win, you are more likely to cash. It’s all about ROI. I make one lineup per slate based on what looks good, and then enter into mostly GPPs if it turned out more stackish or mostly cash games if it’s spread out. Ultimately getting value from your players is going to be profitable.

  • Nobakov

    Saahil is not good at NHL. BY FAR his worst sport. Routinely throws out really bad cash LU’s. Be happy he’s donating to the NHL DFS community.

  • goldengoat29

    @Nobakov said...

    Saahil is not good at NHL. BY FAR his worst sport. Routinely throws out really bad cash LU’s. Be happy he’s donating to the NHL DFS community.

    I realize this but I’ve seen him get lucky a bunch of times.

  • goldengoat29

    @qatman said...

    Because while you are unlikely to win, you are more likely to cash. It’s all about ROI. I make one lineup per slate based on what looks good, and then enter into mostly GPPs if it turned out more stackish or mostly cash games if it’s spread out. Ultimately getting value from your players is going to be profitable.

    Hmm — never thought of it that way. It still sounds like a waste of time though — min placing all the time. I can’t imagine any cash lineup I construct would ever beat more than 10k entries and take down the Sniper.

    On small slates, I like to enter a few lineups. Often I place with one and make back what I entered.

  • goldengoat29

    @Sports312 said...

    It may be fun as entertainment but really not worth the time and effort if you are not making money.

    I know, I agree. Daily Fantasy, in comparison to season-long, is touted as “no commitment” — which couldn’t be further from the truth; if you plan on being a successful DFS player, it is a profound expenditure of time. I spent exponentially more time with my DFS lineups each day than my season-long, pay league. Season-long is (most of the time) perfunctorily moving players in and out of my lineup, occasionally entertaining and proposing trades. If money were not involved, I would find season-long funner. Rounding up a bunch of buds, drafting together, the camaraderie, bragging rights and so on. DFS, to me, is fun and exhilarating but only to the extent that money is being made.

  • NextSignal

    @TicketRaven said...

    I am done playing hockey on DK. There is nobody there anymore

    The exact reason that I’m thinking of moving back haha.

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