STRATEGY FORUM

Comments

  • JH822547

    Tennis is back!

    I mean don’t jump in all at once but let’s chat some tennis at some point.

  • Rasmus

    Always disappointed by the short slate dk puts for tennis. Another WTA tourney is running in Australia and they could also include the ATP cup. But that wont change i guess.

    Favourite player today is Zarina Diyas (9600). – 80% winchance (odds say) – Only 2.3 avg double faults when winning – Only lost 1 set in the last 10 matches that she won – Her opponent (Y.Duan) only won 3 sets the last 10 matches that she lost

  • Extravaganza

    My thoughts on the slate:

    There’s no reason to be cute today. Anisimova is priced as a toss up and she’s a -350 favorite. She’s the free space of the day even at 50%+ ownership.

    My favorite expensive play here is Wozniacki. She’s in a tier of her own at her salary, but the odds alone on her should be worth it. A 8 game handicap is just absurd, and she should roll easily towards an 80 point performance with the upside for 90 if she hits the right bonuses.

    The next price tier has a lot of interchangeable parts. Mertens, Williams, Sabalenka, Diyas, Zhang, and Martic all come in around the low to high 9k salary range with about an 80% odds of winning. I like Williams a bit more with her talent and service game and Martic for her price, but Mertens and Diyas seem fine too.

    I think I will be fading Sabalenka. She absolutely cruised through her match versus Gasparyan, which makes her a little tempting, but I don’t like her matchup with Krystina Pliskova. Pliskova, while not her sister, is still excellent at holding serve. While an upset is not super likely, I could see Pliskova keeping the sets long and forcing Sabalenka’s double fault woes to come into play.

    Zhang is the tier two play I trust the least. Bondarenko is a totally wild card. She missed basically the entire 2019 season. However, she beat a reasonably ranked Doi with ease last round and has similar career numbers to Zhang. I think Zhang clearly has some edge here, but at 9600 for Zhang and 5400 for Bondarenko, I’ll definitely take Bondarenko.

  • JH822547

    @Rasmus said...

    Always disappointed by the short slate dk puts for tennis. Another WTA tourney is running in Australia and they could also include the ATP cup. But that wont change i guess.

    I think 16-20 games is the optimum on a daily contest, anything more is too much work.

    The ATP cup is littered with alternate players being swapped in so they couldn’t possibly have used that.

  • Rasmus

    @JH822547 said...

    I think 16-20 games is the optimum on a daily contest, anything more is too much work.

    The ATP cup is littered with alternate players being swapped in so they couldn’t possibly have used that.

    If there is no work to do, there is no edge to gain. Rake wins. In those slates are more duplicated lineups than single lineups.
    A full nfl slate has 250+ players, this one has 30 and you can’t even combine players playing against each other. Iam fine with that if the rake was 1/5.

  • LegiaWwa

    And there is the first post lock withdrawl of the new year. Welcome back DFS Tennis!

  • MotownGreek

    Who was it tonight?

  • LegiaWwa

    Van Uytvanck, “viral illness” 22% owned

  • Extravaganza

    Uytnanck withdrawal was pretty gross for me. She was one of the my favorite plays outside Animisova and Wozniacki, and was well underweight on Seigemund as a result.

    I know you can’t win them all and this is a part of the Draftkings tennis experience, but the withdrawals in tennis are probably some of the least pleasant parts of Daily Fantasy I’ve experienced. It’s just very unsatisfying.

  • Floshizzle

    @Extravaganza said...

    My thoughts on the slate:

    There’s no reason to be cute today. Anisimova is priced as a toss up and she’s a -350 favorite. She’s the free space of the day even at 50%+ ownership.

    My favorite expensive play here is Wozniacki. She’s in a tier of her own at her salary, but the odds alone on her should be worth it. A 8 game handicap is just absurd, and she should roll easily towards an 80 point performance with the upside for 90 if she hits the right bonuses.

    The next price tier has a lot of interchangeable parts. Mertens, Williams, Sabalenka, Diyas, Zhang, and Martic all come in around the low to high 9k salary range with about an 80% odds of winning. I like Williams a bit more with her talent and service game and Martic for her price, but Mertens and Diyas seem fine too.

    I think I will be fading Sabalenka. She absolutely cruised through her match versus Gasparyan, which makes her a little tempting, but I don’t like her matchup with Krystina Pliskova. Pliskova, while not her sister, is still excellent at holding serve. While an upset is not super likely, I could see Pliskova keeping the sets long and forcing Sabalenka’s double fault woes to come into play.

    Zhang is the tier two play I trust the least. Bondarenko is a totally wild card. She missed basically the entire 2019 season. However, she beat a reasonably ranked Doi with ease last round and has similar career numbers to Zhang. I think Zhang clearly has some edge here, but at 9600 for Zhang and 5400 for Bondarenko, I’ll definitely take Bondarenko.

    Wow, you were on point with your explanations. You should take money for this.

  • Ross21

    Van Uytvanck was not a post lock withdrawal FWIW. She was announced out almost an hour before lock.

  • Extravaganza

    @Ross21 said...

    Van Uytvanck was not a post lock withdrawal FWIW. She was announced out almost an hour before lock.

    Yeah, I saw a twitter post from around 6:15 a bit after I main my tilt post. Still pretty easy to miss, unfortunately.

    It’s not a coincidence that she was about as high owned as Siegemund in the $15 even with sharps jamming Siegemund in lineups. There are not many good resources available for keeping up with these things outside twitter.

  • skleni

    Which sites do you follow on Twitter for withdrawal news?

  • dw12290

    @Ross21 said...

    Van Uytvanck was not a post lock withdrawal FWIW. She was announced out almost an hour before lock.

    Surprised I never saw it and may have min cashed had I replaced her but Zhang was my downfall. On to tonight and just hoping for the best. Taking Cornet over Martic tonight unless I tinker with my LU.

  • Kassdog

    Are we doing a weekly thread like last year or is this the only thread for the year?

  • skleni

    @Kassdog said...

    Are we doing a weekly thread like last year or is this the only thread for the year?

    Let’s do a weekly one

  • dw12290

    Always like my LU before everything falls apart. Good luck everyone!

    Amanda Anisimova 46.9%
    Alize Cornet 17.4%
    Caroline Garcia 38.8%
    Garbine Muguruza 27.9%
    Barbora Strycova 20.7%
    Qiang Wang 46.7%

  • Extravaganza

    I had a monster start with Bouchard and Pegula winning in straights, only for the slate to flip completely on me with Danielle Rose Collins (who I had 0 of…) putting up 90 points in an unfavorable matchup on paper. Considering price and opponent strength, that might be one of the biggest thrashings that we see all year.

  • Yeoman

    Nice to have a sweat this early in the year. I’m in a two-way tie for 1st and if Alexandrova holds onto this set I don’t think anyone can catch us. The only dropped set was that 9-11 Diyas tiebreak.

    Just a single bullet in the Ace today—I guess I wish I were playing bigger. If this keeps up maybe I’ll be able to.

    Ed.: And I’m wrong about being uncatchable, unfortunately. A 71 for Kasatkina or a 72 for Q Wang beats us. Or a 78 from Sasnovich, that’s not so likely. Oh well, it was still a good score.

  • Yeoman

    @Rasmus said...

    A full nfl slate has 250+ players, this one has 30 and you can’t even combine players playing against each other. Iam fine with that if the rake was 1/5.

    This. A full mlb slate also has 270 players. Even a good size nba slate has 100+, conservatively. What they’re doing here is like running regular slates of Red Sox and Yankees games only, because expecting players to know other teams would be “too much work.”

    I understand why they aren’t using the Cup. I don’t understand why they can’t run full WTA slates.

  • JH822547

    Hey you got there. Erratic stuff from Q.Wang.

    She got less points than the player she beat ffs.

  • Kassdog

    They shouldn’t do a late slate. Just do a full slate with all matches and maybe the late with the late stuff only like afternoon NFL

  • Yeoman

    @Kassdog said...

    They shouldn’t do a late slate. Just do a full slate with all matches and maybe the late with the late stuff only like afternoon NFL

    If they want to split the first round of the majors into early and late slates, that makes sense. 64 matches is a lot.

    But dropping the first match of the day on every court and starting the early slate two hours late…that honked me off last year.

    On a different subject—is FD getting back in the game this year?

  • LegiaWwa

    @Yeoman said...

    If they want to split the first round of the majors into early and late slates, that makes sense. 64 matches is a lot.

    But dropping the first match of the day on every court and starting the early slate two hours late…that honked me off last year.

    On a different subject—is FD getting back in the game this year?

    I have 10 tickets to a TEN Super Smash on 01/19 on FD, so I’d assume they are. I bet they only stick to majors again, maybe big tourneys like Indian Wells too.

  • Ross21

    I totally agree with you all on the slate sizes. Extremely disappointing this week considering there are four tournaments going on and the biggest slates were Sunday/Monday’s 15 matches. I personally am not playing anything less than 12 matches. The edge isn’t big enough and a “Rest Day” without research would be a better use of my time.

  • Yeoman

    @LegiaWwa said...

    I have 10 tickets to a TEN Super Smash on 01/19 on FD, so I’d assume they are.

    That’s interesting—the 19th is the opening Monday of the tournament. Last year FD didn’t run slates until the second round because they were trying to avoid the madness of the first-round cancellations.

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