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  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Truck Race Friday 730pm
    Xfinity Race Saturday 230pm
    Cup Race Sunday 230pm

    Qualifying for truck race is today at 440pm.
    Qualifying for Xfinity Race is Saturday 940am.

    Starting lineup for Daytona 500
    https://m.nascar.com/news-media/2019/02/14/projected-2019-daytona-500-starting-lineup
    If anyone goes to the back they will be scored from the starting position above.

    Key Resources
    https://www.racing-reference.info
    https://mobile.twitter.com/stevietpfl
    https://mobile.twitter.com/bobpockrass
    https://mobile.twitter.com/Dbullsfan/lists/nascar?s=09 (Dbullfan list of key NASCAR followers on twitter)

  • Toddalan2286

    @Jnvrmind said...

    Daytona was a better race this year than the previous few. Still boggles my mind how I can have the 1st & 3rd place finishers and still not min-cash.

    Definitely frustrating I agree, but the 2nd place finisher was the highest owned and highest scoring.

  • ljason8eg

    @Toddalan2286 said...

    Looks like draft kings scoring doesn’t match post race loop data for Michael McDowell. Loop data shows he led 2 laps, so essentially 27.93% of lineups in the main tourney were minus a 1/2 point. Not sure how much difference it would make but there’s definitely a variance.

    I recall there was a scoring mix up under one of the early cautions. Believe the 34 and 17 got sent from the front to the back for a pit infraction. The loop data is going off the raw transponder output and showed the 34 as the leader (the couple laps before NASCAR fixed the running order) but NASCAR won’t credit a driver for leading laps when they are under penalty.

  • Toddalan2286

    @ljason8eg said...

    I recall there was a scoring mix up under one of the early cautions. Believe the 34 and 17 got sent from the front to the back for a pit infraction. The loop data is going off the raw transponder output and showed the 34 as the leader (the couple laps before NASCAR fixed the running order) but NASCAR won’t credit a driver for leading laps when they are under penalty.

    Makes perfect sense, thanks for explaining!

  • mtdurham

    Hey guys i dont really NASCAR but usually enter 1 lineup a week… can someone break down how i did this week with this lineup? I was doing well early but missed the cash line…

    I went
    Keslewoski $10,600
    Hamlin $10,000
    Blaney $9000
    Jones $8200
    Byron $6800
    Mears $5400

    I played Hamlin because someone told me he finishes top 5 every year, I played Jones bc i play him every week and he smashes, i played keslowski and mears becasue they had a ton of points to gain for place differential, i played byron just for the lead laps and hopes he finished high, and i played blaney i think bc thats the salary i had left…not sure…

    any logic to let me know if im on the right track would be appreciated

    byron & mears were the ones i felt least confident about as their prcies being that low made me think i was making sucker plays

  • Bucks1433

    @mtdurham said...

    Hey guys i dont really NASCAR but usually enter 1 lineup a week… can someone break down how i did this week with this lineup? I was doing well early but missed the cash line…

    I went
    Keslewoski $10,600
    Hamlin $10,000
    Blaney $9000
    Jones $8200
    Byron $6800
    Mears $5400

    I played Hamlin because someone told me he finishes top 5 every year, I played Jones bc i play him every week and he smashes, i played keslowski and mears becasue they had a ton of points to gain for place differential, i played byron just for the lead laps and hopes he finished high, and i played blaney i think bc thats the salary i had left…not sure…

    any logic to let me know if im on the right track would be appreciated

    byron & mears were the ones i felt least confident about as their prcies being that low made me think i was making sucker plays

    If you replaced Byron with someone else towards the back, you would have had a pretty good lineup. The reason Byron was a bad play was because he was starting first, meaning he could only receive negative points for place differential. There were only 200 total laps in the race and restrictor plate races tend to end up having multiple drivers lead big chunks of laps. It’s also difficult to predict who is going to lead a large portion of laps due to varying strategies, cautions, etc. Someone starting in the back, like McDowell, would have been a better fit in a similar price range. He picked up 29 points on place differential alone. Byron would have needed to lead 116 laps at .25 pts per lap in order to just match what McDowell picked up in place differential.

    At the same time, if Byron led a ton of laps, that means that Hamlin or Blaney wouldn’t have been able to lead many laps meaning it would be very difficult for those 3 together to work in the same lineup and able to compete with guys that started in the back and had a lot to gain on place differential. As a general rule of thumb at tracks such as Daytona and Talladega, you wouldn’t want more than a couple of guys starting in the top 15. Mears was a solid play, he just happened to wreck out. You can see the benefit of playing guys from the back such as Ross Chastain who was in the winning lineup as he started 36th and finished 10th, just because he avoided wrecks.

    Overall, you were on the right track but basing drivers on starting position, by focusing on guys in the back, vs using the salary cap, is more important. The optimal lineup only used $46,300 in salary.

    With all that being said, this strategy is out the window beginning at Atlanta. While it remains to be seen what the new rules package will bring, going forward, you will need to focus on drivers that can lead large chunks of laps and pick up fast laps, mixed in with some place differential guys.

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