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  • Mindofigor

    Tonight I experienced a tilt where I easily could’ve won 8k while putting up under $40 in entry fees… would’ve taken down 2 gpp’s.

    How do you guys deal with coming so close yet so far? I’m trusting the process and trying not to be results-oriented, however when the $ was literally about to fall on your lap, how do you shake that off? About a month ago there was a $150k top prize gpp which I could’ve taken down too if I would’ve faded 1 player. I don’t throw out multiple lineups… most nights I’m playing one lineup which is for sure my problem and will be experimenting using more.

    In the meantime, I’m sure this happens daily to everyone in the top 100 of a gpp… perhaps they were deciding between 2 players and picked the wrong one, so hopefully this thread can help them too.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    I have not yet been close when it comes to daily fantasy sports as far as cashing big. However I am primarily a seasoned horse player since the early 90’s and I can’t tell you how many times i have hit 5 out of 6 in the jackpot pick 6 plays thru the years. I have hit 4 pick 6’s in my lifetime one was a true game changer which allowed me to purchase my home. I usually play when the carryovers are extremely high.

    When you hit 5 out of 6 the consolation is not even remotely close to the 6 out of 6 winner. Its very frustrating but you have to make it a positive experience and appreciate the fact on how well you are handicapping.

    It not only takes great handicapping but you have to have a lot luck as well…your doing well so keep up the great work.

  • shockermandan

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    @Mindofigor said...

    In the meantime, I’m sure this happens daily to everyone in the top 100 of a gpp… perhaps they were deciding between 2 players and picked the wrong one, so hopefully this thread can help them too.

    I think this is one of the hardest things about DFS, particularly with the degree of payout difference based on final position. You can pretty easily be in a situation where you’re just barely min-cashing, but had you swapped 1 player for another, be 100x-200x or more your money.

    Even if there are only 2 players to choose from at each position (50/50 shot of getting it right), you have a 1/256 chance of picking 8 correctly (.5^8).

    If you have to pick 9 right, those odds double to 1/512.

    With dozens of players at each position, those odds increase pretty substantially, so it makes sense that you would get close lots of times before hitting it dead on.

  • Roma315

    Gotta roll with it. In MLB I cashed for $800 with $200 invested. If I switched Bautista for Betts (same position same price) I would have taken down the 1/2 and 4-6 spots for about $25k

  • Messiah717

    You truely kick yourself when you were going to play one player over another and that ends up being the difference.

  • Faucher

    I think it can depend how long you have been playing and how close you have gotten before. Just a few weeks ago I was leading a contest for the live NHL final on DK, just need Gibson to lose, it was 1-1 late and Anaheim scored with roughly a minute left to win and I ultimately lost the seat in the last minute. It sucks but just had to move on to the next day. Just have to find the positives of the night to outweigh the negatives with those kind of nights

  • Njsum1

    If youre truly stuck between two players or a 2 for 2, I’d make 2 lineups, one with player or combo A, and one with player or combo B. If you look at the possible outcomes, it makes monetary sense to do it this way, as long as min cash is a double up. It will also benefit your sanity, as you won’t have to deal with the what ifs, or if I only’s.

  • mellofellowsu

    Just have to realize how much of this is luck. I’ve had a few close calls. If I pick John Wall instead of Steph Curry on X-Mas 2014 I win that GPP (for $30k) easily, that’s the most notable one for me.

    There are players that had those same few calls but made the right choices in all of them and they’re thousands of dollars richer. Reality is there’s really no difference in skill between those that almost hit it big and those that do, they just got luckier. I’m sure THEY wouldn’t think of it that way though. They’d give you all of these analytical reasons why their pick was superior and yours was inferior, when many times it’s simply luck.

    Just remember that you have to get lucky. And when you do take one down, don’t think all of a sudden that you’re some DFS savant. Luck was just on your side that day.

  • peachfuzz

    I have almost taken down a GPP four times this year with lineups all ranging from 4th to 13th place. I also placed 2nd in a GPP the night before Christmas 2014, and have a couple dozen top 50-100 finishes over the last few seasons.

    It is frustrating. Really… really frustrating to not have taken one down out of all of those chances. The takeaways though are that you still make pretty good money when placing that highly which certainly helps the sting, and also knowing that when you get into those kinds of positions, it is really just dumb luck (which is a word I hate to use because I do not believe in the metaphysical concept of luck) to push you over the edge with either an extra couple of points from a couple of balls clanging one way instead of the other, or a couple of turnovers by players in the lineups ahead of you, or your players not being charged with a couple of turnovers, or one of your guys losing a couple of minutes due to foul trouble, or…, or…, or…, etc.

    When it comes to those few extra points, the truth is that you put in a GPP winning lineup meaning that your skill got you there, but the “luck” factor was just not on your side. Them’s the breaks.

  • whateverworks_187

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    The pain of a REALLY bad beat doesn’t go away, and if it makes you feel better yours is small compared to my worst experience. Best advice, just get back on the horse, and hope luck is on your side next time around.

  • Ibleedblue1

    I have been there but this is just a random hobby of mine. Some days I play lots of LU’s sometimes just one. The first Swing for the Fences I would have won 100k but I switched Mike Trout to Bryce Harper 5 mins before lock. Harper got ejected and Trout put up 25 points on DK. I got like 40th for 250$ instead.

  • billholler

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    @whateverworks_187 said...

    The pain of a REALLY bad beat doesn’t go away

    Opening weekend of NFL this season, my DK live money is a little over 102k with about 2 minutes left in Rams/49ers game (last game of the weekend). Unsportsmanlike conduct flag keeps a 9ers drive going that would have been a field goal attempt. Few plays later, Carlos Hyde scores a meaningless TD. Live money drops to a little under $5k.

    Still haven’t recovered from that but certainly haven’t stopped playing. I hate Carlos Hyde.

  • whateverworks_187

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    This blown call that Chip Kelly didn’t challenge, cost me $100,000.

    NOTHING is worse then this.

    cbssports.com/nfl/news/angry-fantasy-owners-react-to-jordan-matthews-non-td-vs-falcons/

  • jhorst52

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    Drink, heavily.

  • mccoolio

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    I just go in willing to accept that whatever I put in is what I’m expecting to lose. Anything that comes back is a victory. I’ve had highs and lows. Last season Chris Paul broke his hand on the waistband of a player from behind, when he had no business reaching in on a dunk attempt. Cost me 50K. Thems the breaks. literally and figuratively.

  • CUTiger81

    We all have several “if I played ________ instead of _________ I would’ve won _______ instead of ________” every month. Should probably just write that down on a piece of paper, fill in the blanks every time it happens and throw it away because there’s probably 100 people who have a similar scenario behind you that would’ve had a higher score if they did the same thing.

  • Bommies9

    Came in 100/275000 in an NFL Milly maker two years ago… struggled all day with A. Brown and J. Reed vs. J. Jones and G. Olsen. I took Jones and Olsen. Won $1000 vs. $1mil. That was two years ago and it still haunts me.

  • wolfjb1

    You just deal with it because it’s life. You deal with it the same way you deal with any disappointment. Some people hit the gym. Others drink. Whatever works.

    It happens to most of us. I had a lineup that was 7th in the big $1 GPP on FD. I took home about $1,500. I was less than two points from winning $12K. I was happy that the same lineup took down one of those mini-GPPs but that only got me a few hundred bucks.

    Rotogrinders host CJ tilts all the time about a guy who cost him $250K…

  • billholler

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    @Bommies9 said...

    Came in 100/275000 in an NFL Milly maker two years ago… struggled all day with A. Brown and J. Reed vs. J. Jones and G. Olsen. I took Jones and Olsen. Won $1000 vs. $1mil. That was two years ago and it still haunts me.

    Wasn’t me but it was talked about on here for a week. Austin Seffarian-Jenkins was in a lineup that finished 10th I believe in the MM. He had been released by Tampa 4 days earlier. Dude only lost by like 2 points. There were about 20 TEs he could have used and won.

  • depalma13

    @Mindofigor said...

    Tonight I experienced a tilt where I easily could’ve won 8k while putting up under $40 in entry fees… would’ve taken down 2 gpp’s.

    How do you guys deal with coming so close yet so far? I’m trusting the process and trying not to be results-oriented, however when the $ was literally about to fall on your lap, how do you shake that off? About a month ago there was a $150k top prize gpp which I could’ve taken down too if I would’ve faded 1 player. I don’t throw out multiple lineups… most nights I’m playing one lineup which is for sure my problem and will be experimenting using more.

    In the meantime, I’m sure this happens daily to everyone in the top 100 of a gpp… perhaps they were deciding between 2 players and picked the wrong one, so hopefully this thread can help them too.

    I should have won a half million dollars on FanDuel. If I don’t touch my lineup 2 minutes before lock, I win by 6 points. I puked a lot and took about a week to realize it wasn’t meant to be. You eventually get over it.

    If I had listened to my wife and been mowing my lawn instead of tinkering…

  • Olhausen

    I have had so many bad breaks that I almost feel cursed to have not have had bigger win then 680$. I have never been in a position to win huge money like say 30k or more. But I have let a 7.5k night slip away and many 1-2k nights that turned into 200$ or less.

    The reality is that I’m not cursed and it’s just extremely hard to win big.

  • Mindofigor

    Thanks guys. I hit the gym, slept it off and now feel better after being able to vent.
    Good luck to everyone and hope we can finally hit a big one soon.

  • Jerok88

    I would have won the million dollars on draftkings nfl, I played Tyrod Taylor and Adrian Peterson instead of Cam Newton and Danny Woodhead. Peterson got injured halfway through. I won like 1500 but I was seriously contemplating that move but decided with AP, oh how different my life would be.

  • shawnzhan

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    Don’t fight the feeling, just accept it and let it pass through you. There are still bad beats from months or years ago that I still think about from time to time, but it will never be as bad as the day it happened right? Another way to look at it is if you came that close to winning a GPP it means you’re doing something right and you should feel good about that and it probably means you’ll have some future success come your way.

  • bigstanny21

    I have actually dealt with this a lot myself and have often wondered if maybe I’m cursed hahaha…over the past season and a half, I have basically played between 2 and 10 lineups in the lower entry ($3-4) tournament every single night…I’ve stuck to my process, with occasional tweaks after gaining experience, and I have come within a player or two from winning the entire GPP dozens of times over that year and a half span…the worst part is that a lot of those times, I have actually had the needed player(s) in other lineups, but just missed the right combo…I have never had enough money at once to allow me to play much more than 10 lineups in a night or could have possibly made it to the right grouping…anyway, I am very curious to know, from the experienced and successful guys that have won large GPP’s, how long did it take you to break through for that first big win? And have you won many more since or is taking a big GPP down something that very rarely happens, if ever, even for those that play every single night? I often feel like the only thing missing is the luck factor, but I still try to improve my process whenever possible…always learning, but it’s tough not to give up when getting so close so many times

    And don’t even get me started on the nights where my final score for the $3-4 tournament would have won the $27-40 GPP…those rare occasions have made me want to break things, buy replacement things for those things and then break those things, too hahaha

  • CJtheGrump

    Last night it was 2 things. One, I only entered a double up because I began to transition into more of a bankroll preservation mentality.
    Two, I couldn’t pull the trigger on Hernangomez from Denver, opting instead to stick with Dirk. Tuned out fine for a cash game.

    The thing I keep telling myself on Hernangomez, is that if I would have used him, I would have done some corresponding move like Steph Curry over Holiday, which would have just cancelled that right out. At least it would have last night.

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