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## Comments

When: March 21-25 (Tournament starts on

Wednesday)Where: Austin, TX

Course: Austin Country Club | A par 71 playing at 7108 yards

Last Year’s Winner: Dustin Johnson over John Rahm

DK’s Matchplay Scoring:Per Hole Scoring

Streaks and Bonuses

Coverage: Golf Channel | PGATourLive

Google Doc

RG Golf Forum League

Happy Meal Standings

Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..nice gif. i am a big fan but he is not popping for me so much- length?

One other thing to think about:

- It’s possible for a guy to not get out of his group with 70+ pts (Kevin Na would have had 73 in 2016; won 14 holes and 2 of 3 matches), which will beat most guys who go out in the round of 16 and can be competitive with guys who go out in the round of 8 (Koepka only had 77). Meanwhile, some guys who go 0-3 will score less than 30 points. so 3/4 with 2 huge scorers can beat 4/4 with 2 duds.

Point taken; I have a few hours in the morning to tinker myself out of cash, but will be a bit less focused on 4/4. I appreciate all of the insight. I thought that seemed too obvious.

## RG Tiered Ranking

something I just noticed was that 3 of the last 4 holes are either par 3 or par 5 meaning 9 of the first 14 are par 4. I think in addition to just looking at birdie or better, I’m going to look at par 4 birdie or better as a lot of the matches won’t make it to the final few holes (2 of the par 5 in the last 4) for those looking at par 5 scoring this week.

Incidentally, it is pretty hard to take an alternate event seriously when Jim Furyk is priced at 10.8k

Maybe as a bit of humor (or maybe not), has anyone else looked at Henley getting out of an extremely winnable group? One or two of these tier 4 guys get out of the group stage and that one is ripe for the pickings.

Damn I thought I was the only one who noticed this lol. Great freaking eye.

with casey stanley and fitzp? i’d say rahm and hidecki groups much easier to win.

edit – i just saw 4th getting through, yes very possible but i don’t think that’s the group.

Fitzpatrick looks lost. I like Stanley too. Casey has a lot of ho-hum rounds that can be exploited. My numbers have him as one of the top tier 4 guys when matched with the course. Not putting him in a lineup or anything but thought it was interesting that my modeling kinda likes him.

## RG Tiered Ranking

Brendan Steele is popping so much for me and I don’t have much of him, makes me nervous.

One last rebuttal… Improving your odds to get 3× 2/16 still doesn’t equate to taking ZJ/DJ, but, like I said before, anything can happen. Good luck everyone. It’ll be fun!!

## RG Tiered Ranking

so what does taking 0% DJ do to my odds

i hear ya, i have no fitz but a bunch of casey and lil stanley, no henley, but this is such a crapshoot, who knows.

## RG Tiered Ranking

I can’t do no Henley in Texas. I’m gonna have a little in what can be a winnable group if Casey has an off day or 2.

I have no one in this group in my lineup for a multitude of reasons #1 being Casey’s ownership.

Thank you, this is why I was so confused with everyone talking about quadrants, I couldn’t find what people were talking g about, this totally makes sense now!!!

Uh Oh…. here comes Dewoc!

Yeah, I understand the intuition but it is

mathematically flawed. lfn1992, please pay attention to the math, instead of being snarky and taunting others to chase the perfect 4/4.First non-technical: To take down a huge GPP you have to get really lucky and go big or go home. If you hedge on everyone else maxing out at 3/4, so you cap yourself at 3/4, you still have to beat the rest of the 3/4, which may not be better odds than the additional odds needed to have just gotten the 4/4 (caveat: yes I know 4/4 isn’t guaranteed to beat 3/4). For that matter, why is 3/4 the magic number? Maybe 2/4 will be the max so we should stack 3 in 2 of the quadrants to get a 3/16 chance in 2 diff groups to get 2 in the finals. Or… maybe 1/4 is good enough (not likely) and we should have all 6 in 1 quadrant. However, all this strategy turns out to be for naught, as shown in the technical section.

Technical: First, let’s assume that all 6 of our picks win their individual groups to begin. This is a fine assumption without loss of generality for anything we are about to do. Now, let us define our two competing plans:Plan 1: Divide the 6 picks into the 4 different quadrants, i.e., 2, 2, 1, 1 (for Quads A, B, C, D).

Plan 2: Divide the 6 picks evenly into 3 quadrants, i.e., 2, 2, 2, 0.

Now, the goal is to calculate the odds that we get 3/4 (or also 4/4 for Plan 1) in the Final Four.

Let’s start with plan 2 since it is the easier one.

P(Getting 3/4 | Plan 2) = ½*½*½ = 1/8. This one should be pretty easy to see since for the 3 quads we’re in, we have 2 of the 4, so the odds for one of our guys to advance is 1/2, per quad.

Now for Plan 1, let’s first look at Getting 4/4, since its easier:

P(Getting 4/4 | Plan 1) = ½*½*¼*¼ = 1/64. (due to the same logic)

Now for Plan 1, we find the 3/4 odds, which is the harder calculation (pardon the abuse of notation but it should be apparent what I’m doing):

P(Getting 3/4 | Plan 1) = P(A, B, C) + P(A, B, D) + P(A, C, D) + (B, C, D) = ½½¼¾ + ½½¼¾ + ½½¼¼ + ½½¼¼ = 3/64 + 3/64 + 1/64 + 1/64 = 8/64 = 1/8 !!!!!!!!!!!!

If you’ve followed me so far, thanks. The crazy, amazing, stupendous conclusion is that the odds of getting 3/4 is the same for Plan 1 and Plan 2, but only Plan 1 gives you the chance of getting 4/4. (It’s entirely possible I made a mistake; if I did please correct me; I’m looking at you BIF and qatman.)

Sorry….. but I didn’t do the math homework in 6th grade either.

That was a more complicated excel solver than stoke play tournament. Had to account for quadrants and groups and 16 oh my

lol i think what he’s saying is no one is getting 3 of the final 4. and 2 of the final 4 will probably be killing it.

What out bitches, single bullet, locked and loaded for extreme tilt for 5 full days