PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: March 27 – 31 (Tournament starts on Wednesday)

    Where: Austin, TX

    Course: Austin Country Club | A par 71 playing at 7108 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Bubba Watson over Kevin Kisner

    DK’s Matchplay Scoring:

    Per Hole Scoring

    • Holes Won: +3 Pts
    • Holes Halved: +0.75 Pts
    • Holes Lost: -0.75 Pts
    • Holes Not Played: +1.6 Pts
    • Matches Won: +5 Pts
    • Matches Halved: +2 Pts

    Streaks and Bonuses

    • Streak of 3 Consecutive Holes Won in Match (Max 1 Per Round): +5 Pts
    • No Holes Lost in Match Bonus: +7.5 Pts

    Coverage: Golf Channel | PGATourLive

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Gasou4389

    Is LineupHQ going to be available. I don’t see it up yet.

  • Pbasniper

    @BIF said...

    In Match Play at this course, I like good putters and agrressive players who have above average scrambling – meaning guys who try to go for par 5’s in two and can get it up and down when they miss.

    This is a great fun course with 4 reachable par 5’s, a driveable par 4 and a couple other very attachable holes where you can shorten up holes by picking an aggressive line off the tee.

    There are only three par 5’s. 6, 12 and 16.

  • BrianVT

    I made this last year – not sure if anyone is interested, but I updated my random lineup generator that tells you when you’ve satisfied having at least 1 from each quad, no more than 1 from a group, and staying under $50k. Some of you may have a strategy of allowing 2 from a group, while still having 1 from each quad, knowing you’ll sacrifice a 6/6 while still having a shot at a 4/4, but I made this for the more conventional strategy.

    Please download your own copy for use in Excel. Keep pressing F9 to refresh until the lineup turns green (which also means all yellow restrictions have gone away). Never got around to putting this in Python code or something that could loop it through and save multiple lineups, but it’s at least good for pulling one at a time for you smaller lineup types that just want a few random lineups that have the possibility of 6/6 and 4/4. Here’s the link:

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=1F67JyhJ2WqOoggSYA5hfie20qrso0f2f

  • MrBreeze

    @keephustlincuz said...

    Fleetgoat gonna fleetgoat…

    reminder from 2018 Tony Finau, USA, def. Tommy Fleetwood, Europe, 6 and 4

  • eruthruff

    Looking at the finishing positions in the Google Doc, it seems like advancing to the elimination rounds is a total crapshoot. A lot of great players “MC” more often than not: DJ, JT, Justin Rose, John Rahm, Sergio, Webb, Spieth, Matsuyama, Stenson. Combined, they’ve failed to make it through about 2/3 of the time (while they MC in regular events only about 15% of the time).

    Maybe some of this reflects match play skill. But I think it’s mostly just that 1/4 advance and the 1/4 is chosen fairly randomly.

    That said, it will be fun…

  • BIF

    @keephustlincuz said...

    BIF… who are your 2 fav underdogs gut feel no research?

    Henrik Stenson
    Keith Mitchell

    No research – gut feel

  • BIF

    @Pbasniper said...

    There are only three par 5’s. 6, 12 and 16.

    👍

  • noddy

    You pretty much have to pick one golfer from 2 groups of 16 and two golfer from the other 2 groups of 16 correct?

  • BIF

    @eruthruff said...

    Looking at the finishing positions in the Google Doc, it seems like advancing to the elimination rounds is a total crapshoot. A lot of great players “MC” more often than not: DJ, JT, Justin Rose, John Rahm, Sergio, Webb, Spieth, Matsuyama, Stenson. Combined, they’ve failed to make it through about 2/3 of the time (while they MC in regular events only about 15% of the time).

    Maybe some of this reflects match play skill. But I think it’s mostly just that 1/4 advance and the 1/4 is chosen fairly randomly.

    That said, it will be fun…

    With only 25% advancing and playing against guys all within Top 70 in the world (in 3 separate one-day matches) is significantly tougher than finishing in the top 50-60% of a 36 hole cut in field of 120-156 players where only 25-50 are in top 70 in world.

    Also in Match Play, you can shoot 8 under and lose to a guy who shoots 9 under – it doesn’t mean you played bad, you just weren’t the best of the 2

  • manoffewwords

    I assume Bovada has their odds to win has everything taken into consideration such as bracket difficulty etc. If so, some of the most underrated golfers are. Poulter,An,Kim,Stenson,pepperell.

  • BIF

    @noddy said...

    You pretty much have to pick one golfer from 2 groups of 16 and two golfer from the other 2 groups of 16 correct?

    If you are trying for the nut lineup yes that is the way to go but that is also the most difficult way to get anyone through to the Final Four as your chances are 1/16 (twice) and 1/8 (twice).

    Last year (I’m going from memory) but simply advancing guys to the Round of 16 (winning your group of 4) was real tough – I think 18% had 0/6; 32% had 1/6 and another 34% had 2/6. Of course Rory/DJ chalk killed many lineups.

    So….especially for cash, the smarter way to play it is ignoring the nut lineup dream and play 3 guys each from 2 quadrants or 2 guys each from 3 quadrants. If you get 1 guy to the Final Four, that guy gets 7 rounds of golf which barring a disaster from your other 5 picks you will cash in cash (and possibly in GPP as well).

  • noddy

    @BIF said...

    If you are trying for the nut lineup yes that is the way to go but that is also the most difficult way to get anyone through to the Final Four as your chances are 1/16 (twice) and 1/8 (twice).

    Last year (I’m going from memory) but simply advancing guys to the Round of 16 (winning your group of 4) was real tough – I think 18% had 0/6; 32% had 1/6 and another 34% had 2/6. Of course Rory/DJ chalk killed many lineups.

    So….especially for cash, the smarter way to play it is ignoring the nut lineup dream and play 3 guys each from 2 quadrants or 2 guys each from 3 quadrants. If you get 1 guy to the Final Four, that guy gets 7 rounds of golf which barring a disaster from your other 5 picks you will cash in cash (and possibly in GPP as well).

    Thank you!

  • byo34

    Just realized my Happy Meal team I made before the bracket fits “the nuts” mold.. All or nothing! Ricky Bobby style from me this week.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @BIF said...

    Henrik Stenson
    Keith Mitchell

    No research – gut feel

    Putnam and Spieth……

  • BIF

    Looking at the Corales Championship event – this was a Web.com event in 2016-2017 and became a PGA Tour event in 2018.

    The cut as a Web event was -5 and -6 but rose to -1 last year as PGA Tour event. Since 6 holes are on ocean, wind can play havoc but otherwise this is a big time birdie fest with wide open fairways and slower Paspalum greens.

  • MrBreeze

    filling out your bracket and then trying to shoe horn your top picks in is problematic when it comes to pricing….I feel like I am doing calculus making line ups

  • superstars92

    Lol Jordan Spieth is viable this week? This is crazy, but Spieth has so much upside where he is.

  • manoffewwords

    Getting a headache and just realized we only have one more day. Still trying to figure out strategy. May be a long nite tomorrow.

  • mitchsnyderdfw

    @superstars92 said...

    Lol Jordan Spieth is viable this week? This is crazy, but Spieth has so much upside where he is.

    I saw this too. I said I wasn’t going to play him for awhile, but he got lucky with the draw.

    For future it would be better if he got knocked out so he could be low owned at Augusta

  • BIF

    @superstars92 said...

    Lol Jordan Spieth is viable this week? This is crazy, but Spieth has so much upside where he is.

    Why ?
    His Match Play record is not great and that was when he was good. Only got out of his group once in last 4 years and then lost in Round of 16.

    Not sure how much I’ll play anyone from this group but it’s Bubba chalk or Billy Ho as a Punt for me

  • timusbr

    Indian Open on the Euro tour is one of my favorites to watch. very scenic and bogie friendly. Last year, its like the cut fell to where my golfers finished. Its a long ass loop where one of the par 5’s gets backed up 5 deep.

  • superstars92

    @BIF said...

    Why ?
    His Match Play record is not great and that was when he was good. Only got out of his group once in last 4 years and then lost in Round of 16.

    Not sure how much I’ll play anyone from this group

    His draw is terrible though. For me, I’m looking more at matchups than individual players. I don’t plan on going that heavy on Spieth, but it’ll be higher than my normal 0% every week.

  • BIF

    @timusbr said...

    Indian Open on the Euro tour is one of my favorites to watch. very scenic and bogie friendly. Last year, its like the cut fell to where my golfers finished. Its a long ass loop where one of the par 5’s gets backed up 5 deep.

    I put one lineup together for the Euro and threw it in the $5 and Happy Meal. I’ve been cold in Euro on my weekly single bullet with a steady run of 4/6’s but did get the winner a couple weeks ago so squeezed out a 2x but otherwise it’s been zero for 2 months.

  • superstars92

    If I had to choose, the easiest draw for a 1 seed is Rory’s draw

    4: Rory, Fitzpatrick, Harding, List

    The hardest for a number 1 seed is

    13: Tiger, Cantlay, Sneds, Wise

    The hardest overall is

    6: Bryson, Leishman, Aphibarnrat, Knox

    The overall easiest is

    15: Bubba, Spieth, Billy Ho, Na

    Any thoughts?

  • BIF

    @superstars92 said...

    His draw is terrible though. For me, I’m looking more at matchups than individual players. I don’t plan on going that heavy on Spieth, but it’ll be higher than my normal 0% every week.

    I hear you but I don’t see how his draw is that terrible – he plays the previous Champ and Bubba won his group the year before plus he is quietly peaking for the Masters with four Top 20’s including two 4th place finishes in last 6 events. He is also the biggest Course horse on the Tour (behind Tiger) with 12 wins over only 7 courses so again if I’m backing anyone in this group it’s Bubba.

    Bubba didn’t get much TV time this week in Valspar but his 4th place finish was 2 shots back of Casey’s -8 and included a lost ball on a par 5 wher he made bogey. If he finds his ball, he may have been in that playoff – otherwise he was bogey free so his form is there to go with history here. The problem is if you play Bubba, it’s tough to jam some of the other chalk in as well.

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