PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: March 24 – 28 (Tournament starts on Wednesday)

    Where: Austin, TX

    Course: Austin Country Club | A par 71 playing at 7108 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Covid

    DK’s Matchplay Scoring:

    Per Hole Scoring

    • Holes Won: +3 Pts
    • Holes Halved: +0.75 Pts
    • Holes Lost: -0.75 Pts
    • Holes Not Played: +1.6 Pts
    • Matches Won: +5 Pts
    • Matches Halved: +2 Pts

    Streaks and Bonuses

    • Streak of 3 Consecutive Holes Won in Match (Max 1 Per Round): +5 Pts
    • No Holes Lost in Match Bonus: +7.5 Pts

    Coverage: Golf Channel | PGATourLive

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Cup 2021 Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • monarch

    I am focusing on one player then building out. So if I like Bryson I am excluding the rest of his group AND the group he would play in the next round and then I am trying to select four winners from the other side of the bracket. To me that is the only shot at a final four short of luck.

  • timusbr

    @ifthethunder said...

    I don’t think I’ve tried this before.

    If I’m reading you guys correctly, you want to pick your favorite from each group of 16, plus 2 others you like in order to maximize your odds of getting players in the final four?
    ~

    Love to chime in but I dont get this post.
    I dont think your reading guys correctly. (lol at least not me)

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @monarch said...

    I am focusing on one player then building out. So if I like Bryson I am excluding the rest of his group AND the group he would play in the next round and then I am trying to select four winners from the other side of the bracket. To me that is the only shot at a final four short of luck.

    That seems like the “all or nothing” method. I’m not sure that’s the best idea but then again I’m not a 100% guy. Or are you just saying what golfer you “pick” first you won’t include a next round possible matchup? The latter makes sense but there’s just times you can’t avoid a matchup we’ve come to find out.

    I think you are gonna want some salary relief in spots so you might have to dip into those pools you don’t want/like.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @ifthethunder said...

    I don’t think I’ve tried this before.

    If I’m reading you guys correctly, you want to pick your favorite from each group of 16, plus 2 others you like in order to maximize your odds of getting players in the final four?
    ~

    I mean to an extent you have it. The only thing is there will be salary constraints so it’s difficult feeling “comfortable” with said 4 “winners” (especially if you think they’re top dollar guys).

    This whole thing is an experience so you grow with it each year.

  • ifthethunder

    @hautalak said...

    I mean to an extent you have it. The only thing is there will be salary constraints so it’s difficult feeling “comfortable” with said 4 “winners” (especially if you think they’re top dollar guys).

    This whole thing is an experience so you grow with it each year.

    Oh I get celery restraints! Just made one already. So this has Rahm as the highest-priced gopher. Therefore, while I could include Lanto Griffin at 6,900 for relief, I’m more inclined to get someone from a group of 16 where I don’t have such a high seed.

    This of course assumes that DK salaries and tournament seeding correlates with odds of winning, which we all know is sketchy. But that is the basic scheme behind picking groups of 6 for the GPPs, right?
    ~

  • BIF

    For those that haven’t played this tourney before:

    Of the 64 guys playing:
    48 play 3 matches (the 3 losers in the 16 groups)
    8 will play 4 matches (losers in Round of 16)
    4 will play 5 matches (loses in Round of 8)
    4 will play 7 matches (as the losers in Final 4 play a 3rd place match as well)

  • BrianVT

    @ifthethunder said...

    I don’t think I’ve tried this before.

    If I’m reading you guys correctly, you want to pick your favorite from each group of 16, plus 2 others you like in order to maximize your odds of getting players in the final four?
    ~

    Yep, that’s pretty much it. Then it boils down to deciding at what point you’re okay with your two extras having to play one of the four (if the stars align)

  • timusbr

    @ifthethunder said...

    This of course assumes that DK salaries and tournament seeding correlates with odds of winning, which we all know is sketchy. But that is the basic scheme behind picking groups of 6 for the GPPs, right?

    first thing I did was put in salaries and sort by groups, sort by seeding, sort by salary,

    best thing I can say is WGC rankings is the seeding, and is not reflective in salaries. Spieth the 49 seed is the 11th highest salary.

  • BIF

    Besides Bryson playing in the Pro-Member tourney at Seminole in Florida today, he is also dropping the launch of his NFT’s today.

    Lots of side stuff going on in his world (as well as filming DK commercials to be launched Masters week) and after a good couple of weeks of golf, I wonder how he focused he is this week to play the Match Play which would could be as many as 7 rounds.

    https://twitter.com/b_dechambeau/status/1374077173200478211?s=20

  • monarch

    @hautalak said...

    That seems like the “all or nothing” method. I’m not sure that’s the best idea but then again I’m not a 100% guy. Or are you just saying what golfer you “pick” first you won’t include a next round possible matchup? The latter makes sense but there’s just times you can’t avoid a matchup we’ve come to find out.

    I think you are gonna want some salary relief in spots so you might have to dip into those pools you don’t want/like.

    I want to maximize the amount of rounds I get if possible. I dont want Bryson eliminating one of my own golfers a round early if that makes sense.

  • BIF

    A little Game Theory discussion:

    One thing that was interesting about the last 2 versions of this for DFS was trying to find the “leverage” groups and avoid the aggregate chalk groups.

    There are a few groups where 2-3 players will draw significant ownership; I would fade those groups entirely and look for the ones where 3 or all 4 golfers are less “popular”.

    With 64 players to choose from and 600% total ownership to be spread across them; the average player ownership will be 9.375%. That means the average ownership allocated to a 4-man Group is 37.5%.

    Some groups are going to ultimately end up with 50+% total ownership (either of because of 1 stud or multiple popular guys) and other groups will end up under 25% (and maybe under 20%) total ownership.

    For my GPP builds, I would much rather target the lower owned ones and fade the chalk groups hoping that either the chalk stud(s) doesn’t win his group or else he loses in the Round of 16.

    Remember only 5 of the 16 top seeds have advanced out of their group in each of the past 2 Match Play events and only 6/16 advanced the year before that. This is a case of Any Given Sunday but this week it is Any Given Wed-Thur-Fri.

  • eatmyturf23

    Hey Tim,

    What counts towards the happy meal? Both the Match Play and the Corales?

    (not that it matters much I think I missed a couple early weeks of PGA this season lol)

  • timusbr

    Ive been thinking about game theory as well. First off a 20 LU MME doesnt cover all you possible LU’s. So choices have to be made.

    1 possible LU theory is to go after 1/2 the bracket. Getting 2 of the final 4 and 4 of the final 8 is a way to cash but not win a GPP. but I think it has up side.

  • timusbr

    @eatmyturf23 said...

    Hey Tim,

    What counts towards the happy meal? Both the Match Play and the Corales?

    (not that it matters much I think I missed a couple early weeks of PGA this season lol)

    Both count as stand alone events for Happy Meal Cup points.

  • MrBreeze

    @BrianVT said...

    I don’t think Tim is a twit. Here is a source for the bracket:

    https://fantasybracket.pgatour.com/#/picks/mine

    Thank You, I will have 30 sheets of paper printed by the time I am done with this.

  • ifthethunder

    @MrBreeze said...

    Thank You, I will have 30 sheets of paper printed by the time I am done with this.

    By the way, that link has a “show odds” button. You can see that Jordan Spieth’s salary is based on DK Sportsbook’s opinion of his chances. E.g. he’s the 49th seed, but they have him at +2500. For comparison, Matthew Fitzpatrick is the 15th seed but they have him listed at +3300.
    ~

  • BrianVT

    I wonder how Daniel Berger is feeling these days?

  • BIF

    For those chasing the Perfect lineup with 6/6 and then 4/4 in the Final Four, here are some stats from 2018 in the big $5 GPP

    After Group Play (Wed to Fri), there were only 13 lineups left with 6/6 (or less than 0.02%), 373 LUs with 5/6 (or 0.48%) and 3146 had 4/6 for group winners. Because of how their lineups were built, of those 3500+ LUs with 4/6 or more, only 829 could have actually gotten 4/4 in finals.

    After the Round of 16, nobody still had 6/6 and only 3 LUs had 5/6. Of those 3 LUs, only one of them could actually get 4/4 into Sunday. I can’t recall if the one person ended up with 4/4 or 3/4 on Sunday but they basically clinched the GPP win on Saturday afternoon as they had more points and more golfers left heading to Sunday.

    Overall after group play in 2018:
    6/6 was 0.02%
    5/6 was 0.48%
    4/6 was 3.83%
    3/6 was 15.4%
    2/6 was 32.29%
    1/6 was 33.76%
    0/6 was 14.22%

    Many 2/6’s would have gotten paid in 2018 as only 20% of lineups had 3 or more win their groups plus if at least one of your 2 guys won his Round of 16 match, you were golden.

    I had a 5/6 in 2018 but then 3 of my guys lost in the Round of 16; thankfully it had the winner Bubba but I went from big dreams after Friday to heartbreak by Noon on Saturday when 5/6 dropped to 2/6. That $5 LU ended up paying $35.

  • lfn1992

    One thing I remember was that this event was Lucas Bjerregaard’s moment in the sun when he eliminated Tiger

  • BIF

    @lfn1992 said...

    One thing I remember was that this event was Lucas Bjerregaard’s moment in the sun when he eliminated Tiger

    Yup, 2019 – he caught Tiger at the perfect time, Tiger had just beaten Rory in the morning Round of 16 match and then was a little flat in the afternoon Round of 8 match against Bjerragard and lost 1-up with the match going to 18.

  • timusbr

    Its so weird it needs to be mentioned again.

    Euro Locks in 7 Hours. Yes it locks Monday evening

    I is Ready (that quick so dont follow me)
    Horsfield for the win
    scrubbies – Kjeldson Sharma

    I will have to use my favorite euro guys at Punta Cana

  • mitchsnyderdfw

    Does anyone know what the point totals were for each golfer in 2019? Looking at how the matches went in 2019 it looks like Molinari won his matches by some pretty healthy margins.

    Molinari went
    5&4
    4&3
    2&1
    5&4
    6&5
    Lost 1 down to Kisner
    4&2

    Molinari racked up a ton of not played holes bonus. Wondering if he outscored Kisner for the week, even though he placed third?

  • timusbr

    @mitchsnyderdfw said...

    Does anyone know what the point totals were for each golfer in 2019?

    sent you a PM

  • Kingspark35

    @BIF said...

    For those chasing the Perfect lineup with 6/6 and then 4/4 in the Final Four, here are some stats from 2018 in the big $5 GPP

    After Group Play (Wed to Fri), there were only 13 lineups left with 6/6 (or less than 0.02%), 373 LUs with 5/6 (or 0.48%) and 3146 had 4/6 for group winners. Because of how their lineups were built, of those 3500+ LUs with 4/6 or more, only 829 could have actually gotten 4/4 in finals.

    After the Round of 16, nobody still had 6/6 and only 3 LUs had 5/6. Of those 3 LUs, only one of them could actually get 4/4 into Sunday. I can’t recall if the one person ended up with 4/4 or 3/4 on Sunday but they basically clinched the GPP win on Saturday afternoon as they had more points and more golfers left heading to Sunday.

    Thanks for the stats, BIF.

    This reminds me that you don’t need the nuts lineup, you just need to beat your oppostion, whoever it may be.

    As usual, this will depend on things like :

    The total number of entries.

    The number of entries allowed.

    The quality of the opposition.

    Your objective.

    Your picks.

    Your model.

    Your skill.

    Your luck.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @monarch said...

    I want to maximize the amount of rounds I get if possible. I dont want Bryson eliminating one of my own golfers a round early if that makes sense.

    Understood.

    I do recall being happy last year when some of my guys were playing one another because by that time so many were gone just points on either side helped.

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