MAIN FORUM

Comments

  • 2Slik

    I’d be shocked if a lot of DFS pros aren’t dipping their toes into the stock market right now. A lot of contrarian plays out there.

  • rourke441

    warren buffet made money this way

  • pat4detroit

    Bottom feeders, it’s time to come out and play!

  • Taterchipdip

    Once this over hyped crisis at least for the US is winding down by late April, opening day for MLB will have most everybody feeling like a 7 year old on christmas morning. Opening Day MLB 2020 will be historic!

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    I finally went short at market close today. Interesting fact: The market has almost retraced 14% to the upside off the bottom. It may still have a small amount ie under 5% to the upside but this always ends the same way. And that is people get lured back in when the market moves up from the false bottom only to get crushed with fresh new lows. Personally, I’m calling 1900 on the S&P and around 16500 on the DOW. There are some that are calling 1500 on the S&P.

    Some things to remember:
    1. We havent hit peak virus cases yet. That is at least a few weeks away or maybe even further out if the “economy is opened back up” as someone suggested doing today.
    2. Weekly unemployment numbers are released on Thursday with predictions of between 1-2 million new people claiming unemployment for last week. That is just the beginning.
    3. I believe a “good” Congressional aid package is baked into the market with today’s market increase. What if it fails to impress?
    4. This market has yet to reach traditional % pullbacks from the top. Not only was this market overbought, but we are now dealing with an unknown situation of shutting down the US economy for an extended period of time. All signs point to further pain on the downside IMO.

  • Awon1

    I made like 2.7k off of Calls yesterday I got. I posted I was going to do this on Monday when I found out the Fed was printing endless money and buying everything including ETFs. I can only do SPY though I wish I could do individual companies without approval.

    I sold them tonight before close but whatever way it opens tomrorow I’m gonna yolo like 1k into puts before the jobless numbers this Thursday.

  • Awon1

    @thedude404 said...

    I finally went short at market close today. Interesting fact: The market has almost retraced 14% to the upside off the bottom. It may still have a small amount ie under 5% to the upside but this always ends the same way. And that is people get lured back in when the market moves up from the false bottom only to get crushed with fresh new lows. Personally, I’m calling 1900 on the S&P and around 16500 on the DOW. There are some that are calling 1500 on the S&P.

    Some things to remember:
    1. We havent hit peak virus cases yet. That is at least a few weeks away or maybe even further out if the “economy is opened back up” as someone suggested doing today.
    2. Weekly unemployment numbers are released on Thursday with predictions of between 1-2 million new people claiming unemployment for last week. That is just the beginning.
    3. I believe a “good” Congressional aid package is baked into the market with today’s market increase. What if it fails to impress?
    4. This market has yet to reach traditional % pullbacks from the top. Not only was this market overbought, but we are now dealing with an unknown situation of shutting down the US economy for an extended period of time. All signs point to further pain on the downside IMO.

    You aren’t worried the Fed is buying endless amounts of everything including ETFs?

    I feel like market can pull back, but there’s gotta be a floor at 2200. I can’t see the Fed allowing it to go below 2200. They’ll just buy infinite assets at that point.

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @Awon1 said...

    You aren’t worried the Fed is buying endless amounts of everything including ETFs?

    I feel like market can pull back, but there’s gotta be a floor at 2200. I can’t see the Fed allowing it to go below 2200. They’ll just buy infinite assets at that point.

    Yes, that does put a floor in the market. It all depends where you think that floor is. We actually could get in a situation where people who bought at the highs of the 2000 bubble and held will have actually seen an overall decrease in those assets over 20 years. How crazy is that?

    Why do you believe the floor is 2200. Look at past crashes. After today, we arent even close to those % downside numbers. If tradition holds, if the Dow goes down to 16000, that is roughly a 44% haircut, which is about a normal sell-off. Now as I mentioned, this isnt normal. This is shutting down the entire economy for X number of weeks/months. That is why some are calling for 1500 on the S&P.

    What I find interesting is yet again, we are solving a busted bubble by creating an even larger bubble.

  • Awon1

    Also trading is way more gambling than dfs. I literally don’t do any analysis and just go with a feeling of buying puts or calls. I was down 500 but today’s big day put me in the green. Hope to continue it. Apparently you can lose if the market flatlines with calls and puts hope that doesn’t happen.

    Like I feel like jobless numbers Thursday will be bad, but I honestly have no idea if they will be. I’m going with puts though.

    I’m also down a crap load in my long term stock account so just doing this trading for fun on the side of that with limited stay at home work these days.

  • Awon1

    @thedude404 said...

    Yes, that does put a floor in the market. It all depends where you think that floor is. We actually could get in a situation where people who bought at the highs of the 2000 bubble and held will have actually seen an overall decrease in those assets over 20 years. How crazy is that?

    Why do you believe the floor is 2200. Look at past crashes. After today, we arent even close to those % downside numbers. If tradition holds, if the Dow goes down to 16000, that is roughly a 44% haircut, which is about a normal sell-off. Now as I mentioned, this isnt normal. This is shutting down the entire economy for X number of weeks/months. That is why some are calling for 1500 on the S&P.

    What I find interesting is yet again, we are solving a busted bubble by creating an even larger bubble.

    I heard from someone in the NBA forum you were suppose to be buying now because he said everyone’s fearful and that’s when you want to buy.

    He said like tech stocks will hold the market up since they aren’t affected by the virus since everyone works from home using tech.

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @Awon1 said...

    Also trading is way more gambling than dfs. I literally don’t do any analysis and just go with a feeling of buying puts or calls. I was down 500 but today’s big day put me in the green. Hope to continue it. Apparently you can lose if the market flatlines with calls and puts hope that doesn’t happen.

    I’m also down a crap load in my long term stock account so just doing this trading for fun on the side of that with limited stay at home work these days.

    With options, you have 3 components: Time decay,stock price, and volatility. So yes, if the stock doesnt get above (or below if buying puts) the strike price by options expiration, you’re going to lose 100%. Something weird has been happening in certain cases lately because of the market volatility….in some instances calls have been increasing even if the market declines just because of the added volatility of the underlying stock/market indice. I saw it myself while watching an index last week and I’ve never seen that before. Because of the recent volatility, option prices in general are unusually high which means you’re going to need a move quicker to make up for that volatility baked into the price.

  • Awon1

    @thedude404 said...

    With options, you have 3 components: Time decay,stock price, and volatility. So yes, if the stock doesnt get above (or below if buying puts) the strike price by options expiration, you’re going to lose 100%. Something weird has been happening in certain cases lately because of the market volatility….in some instances calls have been increasing even if the market declines just because of the added volatility of the underlying stock/market indice. I saw it myself while watching an index last week and I’ve never seen that before. Because of the recent volatility, option prices in general are unusually high which means you’re going to need a move quicker to make up for that volatility baked into the price.

    Yea you clearly are more of an expert than me. I took an Investments class in college so I knew what calls and puts and even bonds were but I had no idea what implied volatility was until people on Reddit talked about it. But it’s just something fun to do to pass the time since there’s not much work at these days (work in consulting, we have less active deals now) and also dfs gambling is gone.

    I use Reddit for almost all my info, but it seems like we have some pretty knowledgeable people here.

    I’ll try reading more on these things like volatility and time decay.

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @Awon1 said...

    I heard from someone in the NBA forum you were suppose to be buying now because he said everyone’s fearful and that’s when you want to buy.

    He said like tech stocks will hold the market up since they aren’t affected by the virus since everyone works from home using tech.

    We havent reached max fear IMO. Look at what happened today. We might only be 1/4 of the way into the woods and people probably think after today we’re out of the woods. Max pain will be felt when there is complete hopelessness. I dont call a 1 day gain of 11% people feeling completely hopeless. There are so many unknowns out there I cant possibly see how 18,300 is the bottom.

    On the positive side I think once we do reach max pain, there will be a partial V recovery. I wouldnt listen to what people on a NBA forum think and I definitely wouldnt listen to me. I’d try to read different articles/opinions and formulate an action plan from that as far as what makes sense to you.

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    Looks like dow futures are up but currently off about 450 from the peak, with nasdaq lagging other indicators. Now back to facing reality and jobless numbers on thursday and the following week……

  • hcassidy

    @thedude404 said...

    2. Weekly unemployment numbers are released on Thursday with predictions of between 1-2 million new people claiming unemployment for last week. That is just the beginning.

    I would be careful with this as its ‘predictions’ and probably won’t even get true numbers as a certain administration has asked states to stop reporting ‘Unemployment Numbers’.

  • superstars92

    • 365

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #63

      RG Tiered Ranking

    That was me in the NBA forum.

    I don’t think most investors and traders are doing it right.

    Like airlines stock are going up > they buy.
    Airlines stocks sell off 60% > they sell or don’t buy?

    Be greedy when others are fearful. Be fearful when others are greedy. You also can’t perfectly time the market. No body can. But if you follow the above adage you’ll make money long term.

    The logic followed by the people who traded these airlines is crazy. You are supposed to be buying when the stocks go down but aren’t going to have significant long term impact. It’s funny to me no one posted “should I sell airline stocks” 1 month ago when they were way higher and now people are all posting “should I sell airline stocks” when they are all way lower. This is bad bad logic.

    For example, Boeing went down to like under 100 and then people wanted to buy puts. Uhh no…that’s when you buy calls or buy the stock. Boeing is like 160 now, you would have made 60% return in 1 week if you bought shares. The stock rebounded over 60% in a span of 1 week. Calls could have made like 1000% depending on what strike you bought.

    You can just sell now to lock in the Boeing profit and turn it into one of those tech stocks who has been hit but will recover long term like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, or AMD and buy that (they are better than Boeing long term). I would do this, all these great technology stocks have been hit for no reason and will go up. They might still go down short term, but since you can’t predict the bottom, long term these stocks will accelerate higher.

    The problem is most “regular” investors always lag professional traders (when I say traders, I mean like big firms like Renaissance Techology). So those firms already priced in something 1 month in advance but 1 month later, investors see the “same things” these other firms already saw 1 month ago, making them late for everything.

    So if you have extra cash and you are a long term investor and you are not buying Microsoft right now, you probably aren’t doing it right. You might get “lucky” if it drops more, but since you can’t predict the bottom and it’s quite clear Microsoft will be higher than its current price in the future, not buying Microsoft (insert another good company like Nike, Disney, Costco, or really any top technology company liken Google or Amazon) now with extra cash is wrong.

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @hcassidy said...

    I would be careful with this as its ‘predictions’ and probably won’t even get true numbers as a certain administration has asked states to stop reporting ‘Unemployment Numbers’.

    That’s fine as I think next week’s unemployment numbers for the week will be even worse.

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @superstars92 said...

    That was me in the NBA forum.

    I don’t think most investors and traders are doing it right.

    Like airlines stock are going up > they buy.
    Airlines stocks sell off 60% > they sell or don’t buy?

    Be greedy when others are fearful. Be fearful when others are greedy. You also can’t perfectly time the market. No body can. But if you follow the above adage you’ll make money long term.

    The logic followed by the people who traded these airlines is crazy. You are supposed to be buying when the stocks go down but aren’t going to have significant long term impact. It’s funny to me no one posted “should I sell airline stocks” 1 month ago when they were way higher and now people are all posting “should I sell airline stocks” when they are all way lower. This is bad bad logic.

    For example, Boeing went down to like under 100 and then people wanted to buy puts. Uhh no…that’s when you buy calls or buy the stock. Boeing is like 160 now, you would have made 60% return in 1 week if you bought shares. The stock rebounded over 60% in a span of 1 week. Calls could have made like 1000% depending on what strike you bought.

    You can just sell now to lock in the Boeing profit and turn it into one of those tech stocks who has been hit but will recover long term like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, or AMD and buy that (they are better than Boeing long term). I would do this, all these great technology stocks have been hit for no reason and will go up. They might still go down short term, but since you can’t predict the bottom, long term these stocks will accelerate higher.

    The problem is most “regular” investors always lag professional traders (when I say traders, I mean like big firms like Renaissance Techology). So those firms already priced in something 1 month in advance but 1 month later, investors see the “same things” these other firms already saw 1 month ago, making them late for everything.

    So if you have extra cash and you are a long term investor and you are not buying Microsoft right now, you probably aren’t doing it right. You might get “lucky” if it drops more, but since you can’t predict the bottom and it’s quite clear Microsoft will be higher than its current price in the future, not buying Microsoft (insert another good company like Nike, Disney, Costco, or really any top technology company liken Google or Amazon) now with extra cash is wrong.

    I agree with what you’re saying.

    However, the market is now up 20% off the “bottom”. We are not clear of the virus, we have no official economic data resulting from the virus, and for the most part, we have no earnings revisions.

    The market was overbought for various reasons in February. The virus was a catalyst for the downturn. If it wasnt for the virus, there would have been another catalyst sooner rather than later. I’ve been wrong before, but I just dont see that we’ve hit the bottom yet. Look at everyone on CNBC. Everyone acting like this is the start of a new bull market today. It’s ludicrous.

  • hcassidy

    @thedude404 said...

    That’s fine as I think next week’s unemployment numbers for the week will be even worse.

    As do I, but I think the numbers that come out since they asked ‘States’ not to report them anymore ‘the numbers released will be deflated and less than optimal’.

  • larin1477

    • Blogger of the Month

    I’m new to the market as well (know a little just never invested beyond choosing which bundle my 401k) honestly was looking at things like spirit airlines that was down to 7$ with a peak last year of around $50. My first reaction to the 11% climb the other day was damn I should have jumped on things sooner but I also believe we haven’t quite hit bottom.

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @larin1477 said...

    I’m new to the market as well (know a little just never invested beyond choosing which bundle my 401k) honestly was looking at things like spirit airlines that was down to 7$ with a peak last year of around $50. My first reaction to the 11% climb the other day was damn I should have jumped on things sooner but I also believe we haven’t quite hit bottom.

    Yeah right now all the airlines were jumping the last 2 days but just as with any industry, there are good airline stocks and bad ones. I’d at the very least do some general research from multiple sources. You’ll also probably want to look into what the airlines are actually getting from all this stimulus whoops I mean disaster relief and who gets what Good luck!

  • superstars92

    • 365

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #63

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @thedude404 said...

    I agree with what you’re saying.

    However, the market is now up 20% off the “bottom”. We are not clear of the virus, we have no official economic data resulting from the virus, and for the most part, we have no earnings revisions.

    The market was overbought for various reasons in February. The virus was a catalyst for the downturn. If it wasnt for the virus, there would have been another catalyst sooner rather than later. I’ve been wrong before, but I just dont see that we’ve hit the bottom yet. Look at everyone on CNBC. Everyone acting like this is the start of a new bull market today. It’s ludicrous.

    Yea you can buy short term puts (or sell calls if you think vol is high) + buy long term stocks. I don’t think these two things are necessarily separate events.

    I don’t watch CNBC but from what I gather, those guys trade too much on emotion. You definitely don’t want to be buying when everyone else is excited. Days you want to be buying in this market are the bad days like last Friday. You can still buy on good days, but you want to buy less. If you have a ton of capital to deploy, I think you definitely focus on good stocks. I don’t agree that most of these names who have bounced back a lot last few days are the good stocks – the big tech and consumer staples who haven’t moved much the last few days are much better long term names.

    Short term you definitely can trade options based on events. Keep in mind a lot of names are still reporting earnings and that can move them. Nike yesterday, Micron today (entire chip sector is affected), and Lululemon tomrorow.

    The concern I have is you are assigning a bottom to your market, but that is somewhat dangerous. I believe it needs to be a probability distribution rather than 1 number. If it’s a probability distribution, that’s why I advise putting slowly your money to work but not going all in, buying more on days when others are fearful. If you know the bottom for sure, yes you would save it all up and buy then, but I honestly have no idea where the bottom is. I just know a lot of these tech stocks and good non-tech names like Nike and Disney and JPM are way oversold long term.

    One of the reasons I don’t like to look at historical market corrections and apply it to today is 1) the Fed is behaving way differently today than historically and 2) this is a health impact that causes a sudden shutdown of economic activity rather than a more drawn out economic recession. That’s why when although historically market recessions might be a 40% drawdown, it’s not certain this one will repeat history. It could be 50% but it could only be 30%, in which case you might miss out on some good names long term.

    To me, long term is the key for an investor. Short term I think puts are definitely fine. Although I personally would buy sector puts (XLF, XLE, XLV, XLK, XLU, etc. – you choose the sector) rather than SPY and try to pairs trade it.

  • superstars92

    • 365

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #63

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @thedude404 said...

    Yeah right now all the airlines were jumping the last 2 days but just as with any industry, there are good airline stocks and bad ones. I’d at the very least do some general research from multiple sources. You’ll also probably want to look into what the airlines are actually getting from all this stimulus whoops I mean disaster relief and who gets what Good luck!

    Yea the bounce back stocks the last few days aren’t the good long term ones imo. Hotels, restaurants, airlines, Vegas, Uber, all bouncing back hard (short covering, more risk on, short gamma as factors). But I would rather choose a few sectors now which haven’t moved as much. I mean it was nice to get Boeing under 100 or airlines when they were so cheap, but if you missed out, it’s better off not to FOMO and buy when it’s already gone up a ton since long term, there are stocks which did not rebound last few days which are better.

    If you wanted to do 1 airline, I feel like Delta is probably the best risk reward. Just like if you wanted to do 1 financial, it’s either JPM or GS. One restaurant it’s MCD. Although I prefer tech names like I said so probably wouldn’t buy Delta. Delta has the best balance sheet, great cash flow, and Buffett has a lot of shares.

  • Awon1

    Dang Markets went way back up….I messed up as usual. At least my long term stocks went back a bit.

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    Im still holding my options when i shorted the qqq. Im only down 4%. Lots of economic news coming out daily starting next week. Also expect a US explosion in virus cases in next 2 weeks. New Orleans have very few hospital beds that could be a tragedy in the making unfortunately.

  • Awon1

    @thedude404 said...

    Im still holding my options when i shorted the qqq. Im only down 4%. Lots of economic news coming out daily starting next week. Also expect a US explosion in virus cases in next 2 weeks. New Orleans have very few hospital beds that could be a tragedy in the making unfortunately.

    I lost on puts on last week. You think I should open more on Monday? What’s your take on timing? We go down next week?

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler